Cheltenham (NSW)

Cheltenham is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the Census, Cheltenham's population is estimated at 2,198 as of May 2026. This represents an increase of 32 people from the 2021 Census figure of 2,166, indicating a growth rate of approximately 1.5%. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation using the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and validation of 20 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,332 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 85% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb of Cheltenham (NSW) is expected to experience an overall population decline of 17 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 60 people over this period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Cheltenham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Cheltenham shows approximately 9 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 48 homes were approved, with another 6 approved so far in FY26. Despite a falling population during this period, new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $599,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market and high-end developments. This financial year has seen $4.8 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting Cheltenham's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cheltenham records around 62% of building activity per person, placing it at the 61st percentile nationally when measured against assessed areas. New development consists of approximately 78% standalone homes and 22% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

This represents a shift from the existing housing stock, currently 96% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 246 people per dwelling approval, Cheltenham shows characteristics of a low density area. Population projections suggesting stability or decline may reduce housing demand pressures in the future, benefiting potential buyers.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified eight projects that may affect the region. Notable initiatives include Keynote Residences Beecroft, Federal Road Safety Program - Beecroft Road Safety Improvements, Senso Epping, and Beecroft Place (formerly Beecroft Module Shopping Centre). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Cheltenham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Cheltenham has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2%. As of December 2025, 1,325 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 3.0% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 72.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 62.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Cheltenham has a strong specialization in education & training (1.6 times the regional level) but is under-represented in accommodation & food services (2.5% vs Greater Sydney's 5.8%).

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2%, and labour force increased by 4.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney's employment grew by 2.2%, labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Cheltenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 15.2% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Cheltenham had a median taxpayer income of $69,597 and an average income of $106,890 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This places it among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By March 2026, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, the estimated median income would be approximately $76,779 and the average income would be around $117,921. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Cheltenham all rank highly nationally, between the 88th and 99th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment comprises 45.5% earning $4000+ weekly (1,000 residents), differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. A substantial number of higher earners are present in Cheltenham, with 58.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Cheltenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cheltenham's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.1% houses and 3.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cheltenham stood at 51.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.3% and rented ones at 8.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,612, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent was $695, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cheltenham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.1% of all households, consisting of couples with children (52.3%), couples without children (27.0%), and single parent families (7.5%). Non-family households constitute the remaining 11.9%, with lone person households at 11.8% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Cheltenham's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 59.2% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (20.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational pathways account for 17.2%, with advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificates at 9.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in secondary education, 9.0% in primary education, and 8.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

A transport analysis in Cheltenham found 14 active stops serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are covered by 10 individual routes, collectively offering 2,921 weekly passenger trips. Residents' accessibility to transport is rated good, with an average distance of 227 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Cars remain the dominant mode at 80%, with trains at 17%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 62.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 417 trips per day, equating to approximately 208 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cheltenham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Cheltenham's health outcomes show exceptional results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (1,517 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.1 and 6.5% of residents respectively. 75.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The area has 20.8% of residents aged 65 and over (457 people), which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cheltenham was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham's cultural diversity is notable, with 34.5% of its population born overseas and 32.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Cheltenham, comprising 49.4% of the population. However, Buddhism is more prevalent in Cheltenham at 3.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 4.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (20.2%), Australian (19.0%), and Chinese (18.1%), with the latter being significantly higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Russian is overrepresented at 0.8% in Cheltenham compared to 0.4% regionally, Korean at 1.2% versus 1.1%, and South Australian at 0.9% against a regional average of 0.5%.

Cheltenham hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Cheltenham is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the cohort aged 55-64 is significantly overrepresented in Cheltenham at 16.4%, while those aged 25-34 are underrepresented at 5.1%. The concentration of the 55-64 age group in Cheltenham is well above the national average of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 15.1% to 17.5%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 6.2% to 5.1% and the 35-44 group has dropped from 10.7% to 9.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Cheltenham, with the 75-84 age cohort projected to expand by 60 people (40%) from 151 to 212. The aging population trend is evident, as those aged 65 and above will comprise all of the projected growth. Conversely, the 45-54 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.