Cheltenham (NSW)

Cheltenham is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Cheltenham's population is estimated at around 2,273 people. This reflects an increase of 107 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,166 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,226 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024), along with an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,377 persons per square kilometer, which is above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Cheltenham's growth rate of 4.9% since the census places it within 1.9 percentage points of its SA3 area (6.8%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilized, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to projections, Cheltenham's population is expected to decline by 8 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, with the 75 to 84 age group projected to expand by 78 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Cheltenham according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Cheltenham recorded approximately 9 residential properties granted approval per year, with an estimated 48 homes approved between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, and 4 so far in FY-26. On average, around 0.6 new residents arrived per new home over the past five financial years. This suggests that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new properties was $599,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $4.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cheltenham records about 60% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 61st percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed. New development consists of 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 96.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 245 people per dwelling approval, Cheltenham shows characteristics of a low density area. Population projections showing stability or decline suggest reduced housing demand pressures in the future, benefiting potential buyers.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Keynote Residences Beecroft, Federal Road Safety Program - Beecroft Road Safety Improvements, Senso Epping, and Beecroft Place (formerly Beecroft Module Shopping Centre). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Cheltenham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Cheltenham has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.1%. As of December 2025, 1,327 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 3.0% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's at 70.2%. According to Census responses, 62.1% of Cheltenham's residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training, with a notable specialization in the latter (1.6 times the regional level). However, accommodation & food services are under-represented, with only 2.5% of Cheltenham's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 5.8%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1%, and labour force grew by 4.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.2% and labour force expand by 2.3%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Cheltenham's employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 15.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Cheltenham had a median taxpayer income of $69,597 and an average income of $106,890 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This places it among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $75,763 (median) and $116,360 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Cheltenham, between the 88th and 99th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the largest segment comprises 45.5% earning $4000+ weekly (1,034 residents), differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 58.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Cheltenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cheltenham's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 96.1% houses and 3.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cheltenham stood at 51.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.3% and rented ones at 8.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,612, significantly higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Cheltenham was $695, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were substantially higher at $3,612 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $695 against the national figure of $375.

Cheltenham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.1% of all households, including 52.3% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 7.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 11.9%, with lone person households at 11.8% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Cheltenham's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 59.2% have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common (35.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (20.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational pathways account for 17.2%, with advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificates at 9.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.3% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in secondary education, 9.0% in primary education, and 8.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

A total of 14 operational public transport stops exist in Cheltenham, offering a combination of train and bus services. These stops are served by 10 unique routes that facilitate 2,921 weekly passenger trips collectively. The accessibility of these transport options is deemed good, with residents typically residing approximately 227 meters from the nearest stop. As predominantly residential, most inhabitants commute outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation for 80% of residents, while train usage stands at 17%. On average, each dwelling owns 1.7 vehicles, surpassing the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 62.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages around 417 trips daily, equating to roughly 208 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cheltenham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Cheltenham's health outcomes are exceptional, as shown by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (1,569 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.1 and 6.5% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 75.4%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.2% (481 people), compared to 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Cheltenham was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham's cultural diversity is notable, with 34.5% of its population born overseas and 32.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cheltenham, comprising 49.4% of its population. Buddhism, however, is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 3.7% of Cheltenham's population versus 4.1%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are English (20.2%), Australian (19.0%), and Chinese (18.1%), with the latter significantly higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Other ethnic groups also show variations in representation: Russian is overrepresented at 0.8% compared to 0.4% regionally, Korean at 1.2% versus 1.1%, and South Australian at 0.9% compared to 0.5%.

Cheltenham hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Cheltenham is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Sydney's average age of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median age of 38 years. The cohort aged 55-64 is significantly over-represented in Cheltenham at 16.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's average, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 4.8%. This concentration of the 55-64 age group in Cheltenham is well above the national average of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 15.1% to 17.5%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 6.2% to 4.8%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Cheltenham, with the 75-84 age cohort projected to expand by 62 people (39%) from 161 to 224. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 0-4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.