Cheltenham (NSW)

Cheltenham is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Cheltenham (NSW) SA2's population is estimated at around 2,270 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 104 people from the 2021 Census figure of 2,166 people, indicating a growth rate of 4.8%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,226 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in Jun 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,375 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cheltenham's growth rate since census positions it within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, over this period, projections indicate an overall population decline of 13 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 75 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Cheltenham according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Cheltenham shows approximately 9 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 49 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 0.8 new residents arriving per new home over these years, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand.

The average construction value of new properties is $599,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market and high-end developments. In FY-26, $4.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's predominantly residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cheltenham records about 62% of building activity per person, placing it among the 62nd percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New development in Cheltenham consists of approximately 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

This represents a notable shift from the current housing composition, which is predominantly houses (96.0%). This change may indicate decreasing availability of developable sites and reflect changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 234 people per dwelling approval, Cheltenham exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population projections indicating stability or decline suggest reduced housing demand pressures in the future, potentially benefiting potential buyers.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones are Keynote Residences Beecroft, Federal Road Safety Program - Beecroft Road Safety Improvements, Senso Epping, and Beecroft Place (formerly Beecroft Module Shopping Centre). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Cheltenham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Cheltenham has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 10.1%.

As of September 2025, 1,351 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.2% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 62.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training, with a strong specialization in the latter (1.6 times the regional level). The accommodation & food sector is under-represented, at 2.5% of Cheltenham's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 5.8%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 10.1% and labour force grew by 9.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.1%, labour force expanded by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cheltenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 15.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Cheltenham had a median taxpayer income of $69,597 and an average income of $106,890 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This places it among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,030 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $75,763 (median) and $116,360 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Cheltenham rank highly nationally, between the 88th and 99th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment comprises 45.5% earning $4000+ weekly (1,032 residents), differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 58.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Cheltenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cheltenham's housing structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 96.1% houses and 3.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 60.5% houses and 39.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cheltenham stood at 51.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.3% and rented at 8.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,612, higher than Sydney metro's $2,817. Median weekly rent in Cheltenham was $695, compared to Sydney metro's $500. Nationally, Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,612 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cheltenham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.1% of all households, including 52.3% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 7.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 11.9%, with lone person households at 11.8% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Cheltenham's residents aged 15+ have a higher proportion of university qualifications (59.2%) than Australia's national average (30.4%) and NSW's rate (32.2%). Bachelor degrees are the most common (35.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (20.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational pathways account for 17.2% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificates at 9.2%. Residents' educational participation is high, with 31.3% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes secondary education (9.6%), primary education (9.0%), and tertiary education (8.6%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cheltenham has 16 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 10 different routes, collectively facilitating 2921 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 227 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 417 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 182 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cheltenham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Cheltenham shows excellent health outcomes across all ages, with very low prevalence of common conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 69% (1,567 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 63.7%, and above the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.1%) and asthma (6.5%).

A total of 75.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 78.1% in Greater Sydney. In Cheltenham, 20.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (465 people), higher than the 17.2% in Greater Sydney. Seniors' health outcomes align with those of the general population.

Cheltenham was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham's cultural diversity is notable, with 34.5% of its population born overseas and 32.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cheltenham, accounting for 49.4%. Buddhism, however, is more prevalent in Cheltenham at 3.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 4.6%.

The top three ancestral groups are English (20.2%), Australian (19.0%), and Chinese (18.1%), the latter being lower than the regional average of 24.9%. Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Russian is overrepresented at 0.8% in Cheltenham, compared to 0.4% regionally; Korean at 1.2%, versus 5.4%; and South African at 0.9%, against 0.4%.

Cheltenham hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Cheltenham is 46 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and also above the Australian median of 38 years. Locally, the 55-64 age cohort makes up 16.2% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney's average, indicating over-representation in this age group. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort is under-represented at 5.1%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.1% to 16.8%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 6.2% to 5.1%. By 2041, Cheltenham's population is projected to see significant demographic shifts. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 65 people (43%) from 154 to 220. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above contributing to all the projected growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 45-54 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.