Cheltenham (NSW)

Cheltenham is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the population of the suburb of Cheltenham (NSW) is estimated at around 2,273 people. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,166 people, indicating a growth of 107 individuals or approximately 4.9%. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and additional validated new addresses since the Census date, is 2,226 persons. This results in a density ratio of 1,377 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cheltenham's population growth rate of 4.9% since the census places it within 1.9 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.8%, suggesting competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains in recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. For the period from 2032 to 2041, growth rates by age group are applied across all areas according to these aggregations. Projections indicate an overall population decline in Cheltenham over this period, with a reduction of 9 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group which is projected to increase by 76 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Cheltenham according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Cheltenham shows around 9 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 49 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of new residents arriving per new home over these years is around 0.8.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $599,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year, Cheltenham has registered approximately $4.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting its residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cheltenham records about 62% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 62nd percentile of areas assessed nationally.

The new development consists of 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 96.0% houses. With around 234 people per dwelling approval, Cheltenham exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population projections indicating stability or decline suggest reduced housing demand pressures in the future, potentially benefiting potential buyers.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Keynote Residences Beecroft, Federal Road Safety Program - Beecroft Road Safety Improvements, Senso Epping, and Beecroft Place (formerly Beecroft Module Shopping Centre). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Cheltenham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Cheltenham has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 10.2%. As of September 2025, 1,347 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 3.2% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 73.4%, similar to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 62.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Cheltenham showed strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, accommodation & food services were under-represented at 2.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 5.8%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 10.2%, and labour force grew by 9.4%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%, with a slight increase in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cheltenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 15.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Cheltenham had a median taxpayer income of $69,597 and an average income of $106,890 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This places it among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $75,763 (median) and $116,360 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Cheltenham rank highly nationally, between the 88th and 99th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 45.5% of residents earn $4000+ weekly (1,034 residents), differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 58.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Cheltenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cheltenham's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.1% houses and 3.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cheltenham stood at 51.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.3% and rented ones at 8.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,612, higher than Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent in Cheltenham was $695, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,612 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $695 compared to the national figure of $375.

Cheltenham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 88.1% of all households, including 52.3% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 7.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 11.9%, with lone person households at 11.8% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Cheltenham's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 59.2% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (20.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational pathways account for 17.2%, with advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificates at 9.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in secondary education, 9.0% in primary education, and 8.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

A total of 14 active transport stops are currently operating within Cheltenham. These include both train and bus services. There are 10 individual routes in operation, collectively facilitating 2,921 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport is rated as good, with residents typically residing 227 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting occurs outward. The car remains the primary mode of transport for 80% of residents, while 17% use the train.

The average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 1.7, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 62.1%, work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 417 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 208 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cheltenham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Cheltenham's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (1,569 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis (7.1%) and asthma (6.5%). A total of 75.4% of residents declared no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Cheltenham has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.8% (472 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in the area are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Cheltenham was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham has a high level of cultural diversity, with 34.5% of its population born overseas and 32.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cheltenham, making up 49.4% of the population. Buddhism is overrepresented in Cheltenham compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 3.7% versus 4.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (20.2%), Australian (19.0%), and Chinese (18.1%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Some ethnic groups have notable representation differences: Russian at 0.8% in Cheltenham versus 0.4% regionally, Korean at 1.2% versus 1.1%, and South African at 0.9% versus 0.5%.

Cheltenham hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Cheltenham is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and also above Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the cohort aged 55-64 is over-represented in Cheltenham at 16.1%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 4.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 15.1% to 17.3%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 6.2% to 4.6% and the 35-44 group has dropped from 10.7% to 9.6%. Population forecasts for Cheltenham in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the 75-84 age cohort projected to expand by 60 people (38%) from 159 to 220. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Conversely, the cohorts aged 25-34 and 0-4 are expected to experience population declines.