Heathcote (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Heathcote are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025 Heathcote's estimated population is around 3,388. This reflects an increase of 426 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,962. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,103 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 75 new addresses since the Census date. This level equates to a density ratio of 25 persons per square kilometer. Heathcote's growth rate of 14.4% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area (6.7%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections forecast significant population increase, with Heathcote expected to grow by 988 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 21.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Heathcote when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates approximately 27 new homes approved annually in Heathcote over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 136 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. By June 2026, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed annually during this period, reflecting robust demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $524,000, indicating a focus on premium properties by developers. In FY-26, $3.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting limited commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Heathcote has seen approximately 38.0% more development per person over the past five years, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

However, building activity has slowed in recent years. All new construction has consisted of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an average of around 188 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Heathcote is projected to add 721 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Heathcote has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified two projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Heathcote Community Hub Redevelopment, Heathcote Boutique Lots (SIG Group), Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones. The following details those projects most relevant to the region.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Heathcote lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Heathcote has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent.

The unemployment rate was 5.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.1%. As of September 2025, 1,196 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.0% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged at 40.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Mining had a strong representation with an employment share 7.7 times the regional level. Conversely, education & training showed lower representation at 6.0% versus the regional average of 9.1%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data comparison. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force increased by 2.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 estimated growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heathcote's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Heathcote's median income among taxpayers is $40,796. The average income in the suburb is $50,882. Both figures are below the national averages. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median income is $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Heathcote would be approximately $44,162 (median) and $55,080 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Heathcote fall between the 2nd and 3rd percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 32.8% of residents earn between $400 - 799 weekly (1,111 people), which is different from the regional trend where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Lower income households are prevalent in Heathcote, with 42.7% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. After housing expenses, 86.2% of income remains, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Heathcote is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heathcote's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Non-Metro Vic.'s composition of 95.2% houses and 4.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heathcote was higher at 54.0%, with the rest being mortgaged (31.3%) or rented (14.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,291, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent in Heathcote was $255, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Heathcote's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,291 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Heathcote features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.2% of all households, including 15.7% couples with children, 35.4% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 35.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Heathcote fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.6%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 31.1%. A total of 24.3% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.5% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.3% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Heathcote has seven active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes, offering a total of 77 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these stops is limited, with residents generally living 1720 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, each route provides 11 trips per day across all stops, resulting in approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heathcote is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Healthcote faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The rate of private health cover is low at approximately 47%, covering around 1,593 people, compared to Rest of Vic's 53.1%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common conditions in Heathcote, affecting 16.7% and 9.5% of residents respectively. However, 51.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic's 63.4%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 34%, or around 1,151 people, compared to Rest of Vic's 24.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Heathcote is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Heathcote's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 84.7% of its population being citizens, 86.0% born in Australia, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Heathcote is Christianity, which constitutes 51.3% of the population, compared to 39.3% across Rest of Vic. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.0%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (11.2%).

Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) and Maltese (0.8%) are overrepresented in Heathcote compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Scottish ancestry is slightly underrepresented at 9.2%.

Heathcote ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Heathcote is 56 years, notably exceeding Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 18.3% of Heathcote's population, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 12.7%, and is well above the national average of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.6% to 10.4% of Heathcote's population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 6.2% to 7.3%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 13.2% to 11.4%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Heathcote's age structure. The 35 to 44 cohort is expected to grow by 42%, adding 147 residents to reach a total of 500. Meanwhile, numbers in the 55 to 64 age range are projected to fall by 24%.