Heathcote (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Heathcote are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the population of Heathcote is estimated to be around 3,334 people. This represents an increase of 372 individuals since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 2,962 people. The current population reflects an estimated resident population of 3,196 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 25 persons per square kilometer. Heathcote's growth of 12.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (5.9%) and the non-metro area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a significant increase, with the area expected to grow by 991 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 23.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Heathcote when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Heathcote shows approximately 26 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 131 homes. In FY-26 so far, seven approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.5 people moved to the area per new home constructed. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $524,000.

This year has seen $2.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to Rest of Vic., Heathcote shows moderately higher new home approvals, with 33.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. Recent development has consisted entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character and appealing to those seeking space in family homes.

With around 183 people per dwelling approval, Heathcote shows characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Heathcote is expected to grow by 778 residents through to 2041. Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Heathcote has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch may impact the area: Heathcote Community Hub Redevelopment, Heathcote Boutique Lots (SIG Group), Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones.

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The labour market performance in Heathcote lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Heathcote's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. Its unemployment rate was 5.4% in the past year, showing relative stability according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 1,183 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Rest of Vic.'s at 3.8%, and workforce participation is lower at 40.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, mining employment is high at 7.7 times the regional average, while education & training has a limited presence at 6.0% compared to the regional 9.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population.

Over the past year, labour force increased by 1.5%, but employment declined by 0.3%, raising unemployment by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heathcote's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Heathcote's median income is $40,796 and average income is $50,882. These figures are below the national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average) for Rest of Vic. Assuming a 12.16% growth in wages since then, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $45,757 (median) and $57,069 (average). The 2021 Census indicates Heathcote's household, family, and personal incomes are between the 2nd and 3rd percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $400 - $799 dominates in Heathcote with 32.8% of residents (1,093 people), unlike metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is dominant at 30.3%. A significant proportion, 42.7%, earns below $800 weekly after housing costs, indicating affordability pressures. After accounting for housing expenses, 86.2% of income remains, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Heathcote is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heathcote's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 95.2% houses and 4.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heathcote stood at 54.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.3% and rented ones at 14.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,291, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent in Heathcote was $255, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s figure of $320. Nationally, Heathcote's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Heathcote features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.2% of all households, including 15.7% couples with children, 35.4% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 35.6% and group households comprising 3.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Heathcote fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (31.1%). A total of 24.3% of the population is actively engaged in formal education: 9.5% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Heathcote Primary School and Holy Rosary School serve a combined total of 217 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 986) and balanced educational opportunities. Both schools cater exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available nearby. The area has fewer school places per 100 residents (6.5) compared to the regional average (10.4), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows seven active stops operating in Heathcote, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by ten routes, collectively facilitating 104 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 1720 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 14 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heathcote is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent in Heathcote, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 47%, or about 1,568 people, compared to Rest of Vic's 52.9% and Australia's national average of 55.3%. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 16.7% and 9.5% respectively, while 51.5% report no medical ailments, lower than Rest of Vic's 63.4%.

Heathcote has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 34%, or 1,133 people, compared to Rest of Vic's 24.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in the area are better than those of the general population.

Heathcote is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Heathcote had a cultural diversity below average, with 84.7% citizens, 86.0% born in Australia, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 51.3%, compared to 39.3% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.0%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (11.2%).

Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) and Scottish (9.2%) were overrepresented in Heathcote compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 10.1%, respectively. Maltese also showed a notable divergence at 0.8%.

Heathcote ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Heathcote is 56 years, which is notably higher than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and significantly exceeds Australia's national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 18.3% of Heathcote's population, compared to Rest of Vic.'s percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 6.5%, which is less prevalent than in Rest of Vic. This concentration of residents aged 55-64 is well above the national average of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has grown from 8.6% to 10.4%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 6.2% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 13.2% to 11.4%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Heathcote's age structure. The 35-44 cohort is expected to grow by 44%, adding 151 residents to reach a total of 498. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 55-64 is projected to fall by 13%.