Lancefield

Lancefield lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Lancefield's population is estimated at around 3,009 people. This reflects an increase of 266 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,743 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,988 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 45 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 24 persons per square kilometer. Lancefield's growth rate of 9.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area average (7.3%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future trends, the suburb is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with an expected growth of 1,215 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 37.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Lancefield when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Lancefield averaged around 15 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 75 homes. As of FY26, 4 approvals have been recorded. Historically, each dwelling constructed has resulted in an average of 4 new residents per year between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand exceeds supply, which typically drives price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average value of $578,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

This financial year has seen $1.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Lancefield's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lancefield has approximately two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 66th percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New development primarily consists of detached houses (93.0%) with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (7.0%), maintaining Lancefield's traditional low density character appealing to those seeking space for families.

The location currently has approximately 207 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lancefield is projected to gain 1,136 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Lancefield has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No infrastructure projects were identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects included Regional Housing Fund Projects, Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria).

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Lancefield significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Lancefield's workforce is skilled, with the construction sector prominently represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in June 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.4%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. There were 1,661 residents employed while workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment areas include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Lancefield has a significant specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 7.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison between working population and resident population. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 4.4%, labour force grew by 4.6%, resulting in a slight unemployment rise of 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's employment increase of 3.5% and unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lancefield's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data, released for financial year 2022, indicates Lancefield's median income among taxpayers is $51,554 with an average of $64,789. This aligns with national averages and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest approximately $57,823 (median) and $72,667 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in Lancefield, between the 43rd and 55th percentiles. Distribution data reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 35.0% of the community (1,053 individuals), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Lancefield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lancefield's dwellings, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 94.7% houses and 5.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lancefield was at 39.0%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.9% and rented dwellings at 11.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lancefield was $1,766, below the Melbourne metro average of $2,014. The median weekly rent in Lancefield was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Lancefield's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lancefield features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.9% of all households, including 34.9% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.1%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Lancefield exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates at 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (26.2%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, comprising primary education (11.0%), secondary education (8.2%), and tertiary education (3.7%).

Lancefield Primary School and St Mary's School serve a total of 390 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1037) offering balanced educational opportunities. Both schools focus on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents stand at 13.0, below the regional average of 16.4, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Lancefield shows six active public transport stops operating, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by nine different routes, collectively facilitating 226 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 710 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 32 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Lancefield are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators show below-average outcomes in Lancefield, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~1,578 people), compared to 58.9% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.8% and 8.8% of residents respectively. 67.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.3% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, the area has 20.7% of residents aged 65 and over (622 people), which is higher than the 18.7% in Greater Melbourne.

Lancefield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lancefield's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.7% of its population born in Australia and 91.6% being citizens. English was spoken as the only language at home by 96.7% of residents. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 48.7% of Lancefield's population.

Judaism, however, was found to be overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.1% of Lancefield's population identifying as Jewish. The top three ancestry groups in Lancefield were Australian (31.5%), English (28.7%), and Irish (11.6%). Notably, Maltese, Scottish, and Russian ethnicities showed higher representation in Lancefield compared to regional averages: Maltese at 1.5% vs 2.1%, Scottish at 9.1% vs 8.8%, and Russian at 0.4% vs 0.2%.

Lancefield hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lancefield, at 41 years, has a median age notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, Lancefield shows an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort (12.7% locally) and under-representation of those aged 25-34 (10.3%). Post-2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 12.3% to 14.1%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 5.3% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort decreased from 13.8% to 11.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Lancefield's age profile, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort (56%), adding 193 residents to reach 543.