Lancefield

Lancefield lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, Lancefield's population was estimated at 305 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 262 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2743. The change is inferred from AreaSearch estimating a resident population of 2978 in June 2024, and validating 45 new addresses since the Census date. This level equates to a density ratio of 24 persons per square kilometer. Lancefield's growth rate exceeded the SA3 area at 9.6% compared to 8.1%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with Lancefield expected to grow by 1217 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 38.0% over these years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Lancefield when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Lancefield averaged around 15 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years to FY26. This totals an estimated 76 homes. By FY26, 9 approvals have been recorded. Historically, between FY21 and FY25, an average of 3.9 new residents arrived per year per dwelling constructed.

This indicates demand significantly exceeds supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new properties is $578,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26, commercial approvals reached $949,000, reflecting Lancefield's residential nature.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lancefield has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 65th percentile nationally when measured by areas assessed. Recent development has been exclusively detached houses, maintaining Lancefield's low-density character and attracting space-seeking buyers at a rate of approximately 215 people per approval. By 2041, AreaSearch quarterly estimates forecast Lancefield to gain 1,142 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Lancefield has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes will impact the area more than local improvements. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could affect it. Key initiatives include Regional Housing Fund Projects, Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). The following details those likely to be most relevant:.

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Employment conditions in Lancefield demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Lancefield's workforce is skilled with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% in September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.6%. As of September 2025, 1,636 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had particularly high concentration at 7.4 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services had limited presence at 5.4% compared to the regional 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, labour force grew by 1.7%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lancefield's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Lancefield had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $51,554 and the average income stood at $64,789. These figures compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $55,807 (median) and $70,134 (average). Census data showed household, family and personal incomes ranked modestly in Lancefield, between the 43rd and 55th percentiles. Income distribution revealed that 35.0% of residents (1,051 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retained 86.8% of their income. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Lancefield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lancefield, as per the latest Census evaluation, 99.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 0.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 94.7% houses and 5.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lancefield stood at 39.0%, mirroring Melbourne metro's rate, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.9% and rented ones at 11.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,766, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,014. Median weekly rent in Lancefield was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Lancefield's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lancefield features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.9% of all households, including 34.9% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.1%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Lancefield exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (26.2%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, with 11.0% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates six active stops in Lancefield, all offering bus services. These stops are served by five distinct routes, facilitating 219 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically residing 710 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 31 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Lancefield are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators show below-average outcomes in Lancefield, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~1,576 people), compared to 59.4% across Greater Melbourne.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 8.8% and 8.8% of residents respectively. 67.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.3% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 20.7% of residents aged 65 and over (622 people), which is higher than the 18.7% in Greater Melbourne.

Lancefield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lancefield has a below average cultural diversity, with 88.7% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Lancefield, comprising 48.7% of people. Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.1% of Lancefield's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.5%), English (28.7%), and Irish (11.6%). Notably, Maltese, Scottish, and Russian ethnicities have higher representation in Lancefield than regionally: Maltese at 1.5%, Scottish at 9.1%, and Russian at 0.4%.

Lancefield's median age exceeds the national pattern

Lancefield, at 41 years, has a median age notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lancefield has an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort (12.7% locally), while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented (10.3%). Post-2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 12.3% to 14.1%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 5.3% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 13.8% to 11.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Lancefield's age profile, with the 45-54 cohort expected to grow by 56%, adding 195 residents to reach 544.