Gisborne

Gisborne lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of February 2026, Gisborne's population is estimated at around 11,107. This reflects an increase of 965 people (9.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,142 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 11,018, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 539 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 114 persons per square kilometer. Gisborne's 9.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (8.2%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast. The suburb is expected to increase by 3,883 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 33.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Gisborne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Gisborne averaged approximately 131 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between financial years FY21 to FY25, an estimated 658 homes were approved, with a further 63 approved in FY26. The average population increase per dwelling built over these five years was 1.4 people.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand dynamic, stable market conditions, and a focus on premium developments with an average construction cost of $535,000. Commercial approvals totaled $27.9 million in FY26, indicating steady commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gisborne's construction activity is 42.0% higher per person over the past five years, reflecting strong developer confidence and balanced buyer choice supporting current property values. New developments consist of 97.0% detached houses and 3.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density nature and appealing to space-seeking buyers with an average of 77 people per approval.

Gisborne is projected to grow by 3,766 residents by 2041, aligning with current development levels and expected future requirements, indicating stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Gisborne has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include Willow Gisborne Community, Gisborne Futures Structure Plan, Willow Gisborne, and C153 Willowbank Road Commercial Rezoning. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Gisborne performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Gisborne has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6%. As of September 2025, 6,348 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 3.2% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was 75.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 29.2% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area had a particular specialization in construction with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Meanwhile, professional & technical services had limited presence at 7.2%, compared to the regional level of 10.1%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6% and labour force by 1.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gisborne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Gisborne had a median income among taxpayers of $61,831 with an average level standing at $80,523. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Gisborne would be approximately $66,932 (median) and $87,166 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Gisborne rank highly nationally, between the 75th and 83rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 31.8% of locals (3,532 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 weekly earnings bracket, which aligns with broader regional trends at 32.8%. Notably, 36.1% of Gisborne residents earn over $3,000 per week, contributing to premium retail and service offerings in the area. Housing expenses account for 13.6% of income, while strong earnings place residents within the 84th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gisborne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gisborne's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gisborne stood at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.8% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Gisborne was $423, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gisborne's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 at $423.

Gisborne features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.8% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.2%, with lone person households at 18.3% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gisborne shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Gisborne trail regional benchmarks; 29.5% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (23.3%).

Educational participation is notably high; 32.8% of residents are currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gisborne has 54 active public transport stops serviced by 5 routes, offering 548 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically located 415 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, primarily using cars (94%). Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, above the regional average. In 2021 Census data, 29.2% of residents worked from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 78 trips daily across all routes, equating to around 10 weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 78 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gisborne is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Gisborne shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 59% of Gisborne's total population (6,507 people) has private health cover, which is exceptionally high. Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively. 70.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population has better-than-average health outcomes. Gisborne has 17.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,943 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Gisborne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gisborne, surveyed in June 2021, showed low cultural diversity with 86.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.3% being citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.4%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

For ancestry, English was highest at 29.4%, Australian at 28.5%, and Irish at 9.9%. Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 2.7% (regional average: 1.1%), Croatian at 0.9% (0.7%), and Polish at 0.9% (0.8%).

Gisborne's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Gisborne is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age cohort is over-represented in Gisborne at 15.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 7.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.1% to 13.2%, and the 75-84 cohort has risen from 5.0% to 6.9%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 8.3% to 7.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Gisborne, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 49%, reaching 2,287 people from 1,532.