Gisborne

Gisborne lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Gisborne is around 11,107. This reflects an increase of 965 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,142. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 11,018 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 539 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 114 persons per square kilometer. Gisborne's growth of 9.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 8.2%, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb of Gisborne is forecasted to have a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas, with an expected increase of 3,854 persons, reflecting an increase of 33.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Gisborne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Gisborne averaged around 131 new dwelling approvals annually, with 656 homes approved between FY21-FY25 and 69 so far in FY26. Each year, approximately 1.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built over the past five financial years. The average construction value of new properties was $535,000, indicating a focus on premium developments.

This financial year saw $27.9 million in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gisborne's construction activity was 42.0% higher than the regional average per person over the past five years. New development primarily comprised detached houses (97.0%) and townhouses or apartments (3.0%), maintaining the area's low-density nature. With approximately 78 people per approval, Gisborne reflects a developing area with an expected residential growth of 3,765 residents by 2041.

Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, suggesting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Gisborne has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Willow Gisborne Community, Gisborne Futures Structure Plan, Willow, Gisborne, and C153 Willowbank Road Commercial Rezoning. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Gisborne performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Gisborne has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 1.2% as of AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 6,291 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 3.6% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was 74.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 29.2% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents included construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction showed notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 7.2% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Gisborne's labour force decreased by 0.8% while employment declined by 0.6%, resulting in a fall in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Gisborne's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, the suburb of Gisborne had a median income among taxpayers of $61,831 and an average of $80,523. These figures are notably high compared to national averages. Greater Melbourne, for instance, had a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, estimates suggest the median income in Gisborne would be approximately $66,932 and the average around $87,166 by September 2025. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Gisborne rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes all falling between the 75th and 83rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 31.8% of locals (3,532 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per annum, similar to the broader area where 32.8% fall into this income bracket. Economic strength is evident with 36.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing expenses account for 13.6% of income, while strong earnings place residents within the 84th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gisborne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gisborne's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gisborne stood at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.8% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Gisborne was $423, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gisborne's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gisborne features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.8 percent of all households, including 42.6 percent couples with children, 28.1 percent couples without children, and 9.5 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.2 percent, with lone person households at 18.3 percent and group households comprising 1.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gisborne shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Gisborne, 29.5% of residents aged 15 and above have university degrees, compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This indicates a gap that suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.8%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 36.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (23.3%).

Educational participation is high in Gisborne, with 32.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gisborne has 54 active public transport stops serviced by 5 routes, offering 548 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically located 415 meters from the nearest stop. Most commute outward, with car being dominant at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling. In 2021 Census data, 29.2% of residents worked from home. Service frequency averages 78 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 10 weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 78 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gisborne is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Gisborne shows above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among its general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 59% of Gisborne's total population (6,507 people) has private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 70.7% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. Gisborne has 17.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,921 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Gisborne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gisborne's cultural diversity was below average, with 86.3% born in Australia, 93.3% being citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated Gisborne's religion at 48.4%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (29.4%), Australian (28.5%), and Irish (9.9%). Maltese, Croatian, and Polish groups were notably higher in Gisborne than regionally.

Gisborne's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Gisborne is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age cohort is over-represented in Gisborne at 16.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15-24 age group grew from 11.1% to 13.2%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 5.0% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 8.3% to 7.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes for Gisborne, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 49%, reaching 2,285 people from 1,532.