Gisborne

Gisborne lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Gisborne's population is estimated at around 11,514 as of May 2026. This reflects a growth of 1,372 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,142. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 11,458 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 585 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 119 persons per square kilometer. Gisborne's growth rate of 13.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area's 8.7% and the state's growth, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, a significant population increase is forecast for the suburb of Gisborne, with an expected rise of 3,802 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 32.5% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Gisborne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Gisborne has averaged approximately 131 new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY21 and FY25, around 656 homes were approved, with an additional 86 approved in FY26 to date. On average, 1.5 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

The average construction value of new properties is $535,000, indicating a focus on premium developments. This financial year has seen $27.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gisborne's construction activity is 41.0% higher per person over the past five years, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists predominantly of detached houses (97.0%) and a smaller proportion of townhouses or apartments (3.0%), preserving the area's low-density nature.

With around 78 people per approval, Gisborne reflects a developing area with an expected residential growth of 3,746 residents by 2041. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, suggesting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Gisborne has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Gisborne Futures Structure Plan, Willow in Gisborne, C153 Willowbank Road Commercial Rezoning, and Gisborne Business Park Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Gisborne performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Gisborne has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 1.1%. Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability.

As of December 2025, 6363 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Workforce participation is 72.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 29.2% of residents work from home. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction employment levels are at 1.5 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Gisborne's labour force decreased by 0.5%, while employment declined by 0.3%, leading to a unemployment rate fall of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gisborne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Gisborne's median income among taxpayers is $61,831. The average income in Gisborne is $80,523. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates for Gisborne would be approximately $67,779 (median) and $88,269 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Gisborne rank highly nationally, between the 75th and 83rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 31.8% of locals (3,661 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which is similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Economic strength in Gisborne is evident through 36.1% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income. Strong earnings rank residents within the 84th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gisborne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gisborne's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gisborne was at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.8% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Weekly rent median was $423, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gisborne's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gisborne features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 80.8% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.2%, consisting of 18.3% lone person households and 1.1% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gisborne shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Gisborne trail regional benchmarks; 29.5% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently; 36.4% of residents aged 15+ hold vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (23.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gisborne has 54 active public transport stops served by 5 routes, offering 548 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 415 meters, indicating moderate accessibility. Most residents commute outward, with cars being the dominant mode at 94%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.9, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 29.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 78 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Service frequency averages 78 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gisborne is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Gisborne shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is exceptionally high, with approximately 59% of the total population (6,746 people) having it. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively. 70.7% of residents report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Under-65s in Gisborne have better-than-average health outcomes. The area has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,899 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Gisborne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gisborne's cultural diversity was below average, with 86.3% born in Australia, 93.3% citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated religion at 48.4%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

Top ancestry groups were English (29.4%), Australian (28.5%), and Irish (9.9%). Maltese were notably overrepresented at 2.7% versus regional 1.1%. Croatian and Polish also had notable divergences, at 0.9% each compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 0.8% respectively.

Gisborne's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Gisborne is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age cohort is over-represented in Gisborne at 15.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.1% to 13.4%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 5.0% to 6.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 age cohort has declined from 16.6% to 15.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Gisborne, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 47%, adding 756 people and reaching a total of 2,357 from its current figure of 1,600.