Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunbury's population was around 15,507 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,836 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,671 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,810 in June 2024 and an additional 774 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 119 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate of 13.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 41.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Sunbury is predicted to experience exceptional growth, increasing by 12,129 persons to reach a total of 27,636 by 2041, reflecting a gain of 73.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury has averaged approximately 200 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,000 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 114 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.2 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $372,000.

This financial year has seen $4.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury records about three-quarters the building activity per person while placing among the 94th percentile nationally for construction activity, reflecting strong developer confidence. Recent construction comprises 95% detached dwellings and 5% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. With approximately 54 people per approval, Sunbury reflects a developing area.

Looking ahead, Sunbury is expected to grow by 11,432 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence a region's performance. AreaSearch has identified 52 projects potentially impacting this area. Notable ones are Sunbury Square Town Centre, East Village Sunbury, Redstone, and Alexander Park Estate. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Sunbury ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. As of that date, 8,556 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Sunbury was 66.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.3% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to September 2025, Sunbury's employment increased by 2.2%, while labour force increased by 2.0%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Sunbury SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $56,834 and an average income of $67,428 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was higher than the national average for that year. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 with an average of $73,761 during the same period. As of September 2025, estimates suggest the median income in Sunbury would be approximately $63,745 and the average around $75,627, based on a 12.16% growth since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 36.2% of the community (5,613 individuals), which is consistent with broader regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's residential structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.8% houses and 1.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was at 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.6% and rented ones at 14.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Sunbury was $1,789, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,750. The median weekly rent figure in Sunbury was $371, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 41.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.6% and certificates at 28.1%. Educational participation is high, with 29.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by five different routes that together facilitate 2,576 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is moderate, with residents on average being located 437 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 368 trips per day, which translates to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 53% of the total population (~8,280 people). The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 10.0% and 9.5% of residents respectively. 65.9% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.7% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, the area has 15.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,433 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 83.5% born in Australia, 91.3% being citizens, and 90.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 52.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 50.8%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (27.3%), English (26.7%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 3.1% in Sunbury versus the regional 2.8%, while Polish and Italian showed slight increases to 1.0% and 5.6% respectively.

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and close to the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has a notably higher proportion of individuals aged 55-64 (13.2%) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (12.3%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group 35-44 has grown from 12.6% to 13.8%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 13.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Sunbury, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 83%, reaching 3,777 people from its current total of 2,059.