Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunbury's population is approximately 15,304 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,633 people, a rise of 11.9% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 13,671. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,810 in June 2024 and an additional 792 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 118 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 41.3% to overall population gains recently, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Sunbury is predicted to experience exceptional growth, increasing by 12,129 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 76.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury has averaged approximately 200 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,000 homes. As of FY26137 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.2 people moved to the area per dwelling built annually. This has resulted in a balanced supply and demand scenario, creating stable market conditions.

The average construction value for new properties is $372,000. In FY26, there have been $4.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating Sunbury's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury records about three-quarters the building activity per person, placing it among the 94th percentile nationally. However, construction activity has intensified recently, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area.

Recent developments comprise 95% detached dwellings and 5% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Sunbury's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With approximately 54 people per approval, Sunbury reflects a developing area. By 2041, Sunbury is projected to grow by 11,635 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 52 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Sunbury South Town Centre, East Village Sunbury, Redstone, and Alexander Park Estate. The following details projects expected to have most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Sunbury ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%.

As of September 2025, 8,556 residents were employed with a participation rate of 73.3%, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Home-based work accounted for 24.7% of jobs based on Census responses. Major employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Sunbury has a strong specialization in construction (1.6 times the regional level) but lower representation in professional & technical services (5.3% vs regional average of 10.1%).

AreaSearch analysis shows employment increased by 2.2% while labour force grew by 2.0%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points over the year to September 2025. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 12.9% over ten years for Sunbury, with industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Sunbury SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $60,478 and an average income of $71,556 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This was higher than the national average, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. With a Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Sunbury would be approximately $65,467 (median) and $77,459 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 36.2% of the community, with a total of 5,540 individuals, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.8% houses and 1.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was at 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.6% and rented ones at 14.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,789, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $371, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 41.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.1%). Educational participation is high at 29.2%, comprising primary education (10.1%), secondary education (8.6%), and tertiary education (4.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 66 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by five distinct routes that facilitate a total of 1,893 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport options is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing 436 meters away from the nearest stop. As Sunbury is predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 270 trips per day, equating to approximately 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 55% (~8,401 people) of Sunbury's total population has private health cover. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 10.0 and 9.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Sunbury has 16.2% (2,477 people) of its residents aged 65 and over, which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury had a low cultural diversity, with 83.5% born in Australia, 91.3% being citizens, and 90.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 52.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 43.0%. Ancestry showed high Australian (27.3%) and English (26.7%) groups, above regional averages of 18.4% and 20.1% respectively.

Irish ancestry was also notable at 9.0%. Maltese, Polish, and Italian groups were overrepresented in Sunbury compared to regional figures: Maltese at 3.1% vs 1.1%, Polish at 1.0% vs 0.8%, and Italian at 5.6% vs 5.2%.

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Sunbury at 13.3%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.6% to 14.0% of Sunbury's population, and the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 3.8% to 4.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 13.0%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Sunbury, with the 45 to 54 group projected to grow by 90%, reaching 3,777 people from 1,986.