Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Sunbury's population is around 15,304 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,633 people (11.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,671 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,810 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 792 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 118 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Sunbury's 11.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 41.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 12,129 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 76.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury has averaged around 200 new dwelling approvals annually, totalling 1,000 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26152 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 1.2 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $372,000. There have also been $4.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year, supporting the area's residential character.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury records about three-quarters of the building activity per person and ranks in the 94th percentile of areas assessed nationally, though construction activity has intensified recently. This is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached dwellings and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. At around 54 people per approval, Sunbury reflects a developing area.

Looking ahead, Sunbury is expected to grow by 11,635 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 52 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Sunbury South Town Centre, East Village Sunbury, Redstone, and Alexander Park Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Sunbury well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Sunbury possesses a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.9%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,495 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 24.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.3% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.1% while the labour force decreased by 0.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Sunbury. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Sunbury SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $60,478 and an average of $71,556 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is above the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $65,467 (median) and $77,459 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.2% of the community (5,540 individuals), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Sunbury, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.8% houses and 1.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Sunbury was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 34.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (51.6%) or rented (14.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,789, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $371, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 81.9% of all households, comprising 41.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.6%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 66 active transport stops operating within Sunbury, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 1,893 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 436 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 24.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 270 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~8,401 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 10.0 and 9.5% of residents, respectively, while 65.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,477 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 83.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.3% being citizens, and 90.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Sunbury is Christianity, which makes up 52.8% of the population. This compares to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Sunbury are Australian, comprising 27.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, English, comprising 26.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, and Irish, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 3.1% of Sunbury (vs 1.1% regionally), Polish at 1.0% (vs 0.8%) and Italian at 5.6% (vs 5.2%).

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The 39-year median age in Sunbury is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly close to the 38-year national average. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (13.3% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (12.0%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.6% to 14.0% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 3.8% to 4.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 13.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Sunbury. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 90% (1,790 people), reaching 3,777 from 1,986.