Sunbury
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunbury's population is approximately 15,493 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents a growth of 1,822 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,671. The increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 14,813 in June 2024 and an additional 768 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 119 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate of 13.3% since the 2021 census exceeds both the national average (8.6%) and the state average, positioning it as a region leader for population growth. Natural growth contributes about 41.3% to overall population gains, though all migration factors are positive.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas. For uncovers areas, it employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Predictions indicate Sunbury will rank among the top 10% national statistical areas for growth by 2041, with an expected increase of 12,129 persons, representing a total gain of 73.9%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury has averaged approximately 200 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 1,000 dwellings approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, there have been 43 approvals so far. On average, 1.2 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $405,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. This financial year has seen $4.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury records about three-quarters the building activity per person while placing among the 94th percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached dwellings and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

With around 54 people per approval, Sunbury reflects a developing area. By 2041, Sunbury is expected to grow by 11,446 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 51 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Sunbury South Major Town Centre, East Village Sunbury, Alexander Park Estate, and Redstone. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment positions Sunbury ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being particularly prominent. Its unemployment rate is 3.5% and it has seen an estimated employment growth of 4.5% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 8,521 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is at 66.5%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Sunbury has a strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.5% while labour force increased by 4.4%, resulting in a fall in unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Sunbury has a median taxpayer income of $56,834 and an average income of $67,428 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is higher than the national average, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By March 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $62,580 and the average income around $74,245, accounting for a 10.11% wage growth since financial year 2022. Incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 66th percentile nationally, with 36.2% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 (5,608 individuals). This is consistent with broader trends across regional levels, where 32.8% fall into the same earnings band. After housing costs, Sunbury residents retain 87.4% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.8% houses and 1.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury stood at 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.6% and rented ones at 14.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,789, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,750. Median weekly rent in Sunbury was $371, slightly above Melbourne metro's figure of $369. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 41.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas at 12.6% and certificates at 28.1%. Educational participation is high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Sunbury has a robust network of 7 schools educating approximately 3,875 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1032) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 3 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. Sunbury functions as an education hub with 25.0 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 14.5, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 65 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 2,576 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents on average being located 437 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there is an average service frequency of 368 trips per day, which equates to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~8,273 people). The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 10.0 and 9.5% of residents respectively. 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.7% across Greater Melbourne. As of the latest data (2016), 15.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,430 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury has a lower cultural diversity compared to the average, with 83.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.3% being citizens, and 90.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunbury, making up 52.8% of people, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 50.8%. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (27.3%), English (26.7%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Maltese, Italian, and Polish ethnicities have similar or slightly higher representations in Sunbury compared to the regional averages of 2.8%, 5.2%, and 1.0% respectively.

Sunbury's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Sunbury is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Sunbury at 13.2%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has grown from 12.6% to 13.8%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 13.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Sunbury. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 84%, reaching 3,777 people from the current 2,057.