Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunbury's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 15,379. This figure represents a 12.5% increase from the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 13,671. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: Sunbury's population was 15,364 in June 2025, and there were 802 new validated addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 118 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate exceeded both state (9.3%) and national averages, making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, they use Victorian Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Sunbury is projected to have a population of approximately 26,839, reflecting a 74.4% increase over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury has averaged approximately 200 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,000 homes. As of FY-26192 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.2 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand ratio that has maintained stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is $372,000.

This financial year has seen $4.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 94th percentile nationally, demonstrating strong developer confidence. Recent construction consists of 95% detached dwellings and 5% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. With approximately 54 people per approval, Sunbury reflects a developing area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunbury is expected to grow by 11,445 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 51 projects likely to impact this region. Notable projects include East Village Sunbury, Redstone, Alexander Park Estate, and Kimberley. The following details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Sunbury well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Sunbury has a skilled labour force with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.9% as of December 2025. Employment stability was maintained over the past year.

As of that month, 8,495 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Sunbury was on par with Greater Melbourne at 69.9%. According to Census responses, 24.7% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction shows strong specialisation, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 0.1% while labour force decreased by 0.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points during this period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggests local employment growth should be 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Sunbury SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $60,478 and an average of $71,556 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is above the national average of $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average) in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $66,296 (median) and $78,440 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.2% of the community (5,567 individuals), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.8% houses and 1.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was at 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.6% and rented ones at 14.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Sunbury was $1,789, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Sunbury was $371, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 41.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.1%). Educational participation is high at 29.2%, with 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1893 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing 436 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Sunbury's predominantly residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, which exceeds the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 270 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 55% of the total population (~8,443 people) have private health cover. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 10.0% and 9.5% of residents respectively. However, 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 15.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,443 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury's cultural diversity was below average, with 83.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.3% being citizens, and 90.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Sunbury, comprising 52.8% of people, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (27.3%, regional average: 18.4%), English (26.7%, regional average: 20.1%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Maltese was overrepresented at 3.1% in Sunbury (regional average: 1.1%), Polish at 1.0% (regional average: 0.8%), and Italian at 5.6% (regional average: 5.2%).

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has a notably higher proportion of individuals aged 55-64 (13.0% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (12.9%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group 35-44 has grown from 12.6% to 13.7%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 12.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Sunbury, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 89%, reaching a total of 3,709 people from its current figure of 1,965.