Sunbury
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunbury's population was around 15,507 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 1,836 people from the 2021 Census figure of 13,671, a growth rate of 13.4%. The change was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 14,810 in June 2024 and an additional 774 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 119 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth exceeded the national average of 8.9% since the 2021 census, making it a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 41.3% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they used VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these trends, Sunbury is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. By 2041, its population is expected to increase by 12,129 persons, recording a gain of 73.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury has averaged approximately 200 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,000 homes. As of FY-26, 83 approvals have been recorded so far. On average, about 1.2 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period (FY-21 to FY-25), suggesting a balanced supply and demand ratio that maintains stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $372,000.

This financial year has seen $4.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury records around three-quarters the building activity per person while ranking among the 94th percentile nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached dwellings and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With approximately 54 people per approval, Sunbury reflects a developing area.

By 2041, Sunbury is projected to grow by 11,432 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Sunbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 52 projects that may impact this region. Notable initiatives include Sunbury Square Town Centre, East Village Sunbury, Alexander Park Estate, and Redstone. The following details projects expected to have the most significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Sunbury ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.5% as of June 2025, which is 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%. As of June 2025, 8,521 residents were in work and workforce participation was 66.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Sunbury has a strong specialization in construction with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.3% versus the regional average of 10.1%. AreaSearch analysis over the 12 months to June 2025 showed employment increased by 4.5%, labour force grew by 4.4%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% with a rise in unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest Sunbury's local employment could grow by approximately 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Sunbury has a median taxpayer income of $56,834 and an average income of $67,428 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. This is higher than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% since the financial year 2022, estimated current incomes would be approximately $63,745 (median) and $75,627 (average) by September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Sunbury are around the 66th percentile nationally. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 36.2% of Sunbury's community, with a total of 5,613 individuals, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 98.8% houses and 1.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Sunbury's home ownership stood at 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.6% and rented ones at 14.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,789, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,750. The median weekly rent in Sunbury was $371, slightly above Melbourne metro's figure of $369. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 81.9% of all households, including 41.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 20.6%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.1%), secondary education (8.6%), and tertiary education (4.4%). Sunbury operates seven schools educating approximately 3,875 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1032) and balanced educational opportunities. The schools include three primary, three secondary, and one K-12 school. The area functions as an education hub with 25.0 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 14.5, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are five different bus routes operating in the area, together offering 2,576 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate; residents generally live about 437 meters away from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 368 daily trips across all routes, which amounts to roughly 39 weekly trips per individual bus stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~8,280 people). The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 10.0 and 9.5% of residents respectively. 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.7% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2018, 15.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,433 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 83.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.3% being citizens, and 90.6% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Sunbury is Christianity, accounting for 52.8% of the population, compared to 50.8% across Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups represented in Sunbury are Australian (27.3%), English (26.7%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Maltese representation is higher at 3.1% in Sunbury than regionally at 2.8%, Italian representation is also slightly higher at 5.6% compared to the regional figure of 5.2%, while Polish representation remains similar at 1.0%.

Sunbury's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Sunbury is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and very close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has a notably over-represented cohort of 55-64 year-olds at 13.2% locally, while 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.6% to 13.8% of Sunbury's population, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 13.3%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Sunbury, with the 45 to 54 age group projected to grow by 83%, reaching 3,777 people from its current figure of 2,059.