Gisborne

Gisborne lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Gisborne's population was around 15,597 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,222 people. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,438 in June 2024 and an additional 727 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 73 persons per square kilometer. Gisborne's growth rate of 9.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area average (7.3%) and the national average, indicating significant growth in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 52.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive influences.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Gisborne expected to grow by 5,602 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 34.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Gisborne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Gisborne has approved approximately 192 residential properties per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 961 homes were approved, with an additional 58 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, each dwelling constructed over these five years accommodates about 1.4 new residents annually.

The average construction cost for new properties is around $535,000. This year alone, Gisborne has recorded $60.3 million in commercial development approvals. Compared to Greater Melbourne and the national average, Gisborne shows higher levels of development, with 48.0% more per person over the past five years. Recent construction comprises predominantly detached dwellings (97.0%) and a smaller portion of medium and high-density housing (3.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low density character.

The location has approximately 89 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts estimate Gisborne will gain around 5,439 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply is expected to meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that could exceed current forecasts.

Gisborne has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Willow Gisborne Community, Gisborne Futures Structure Plan, Willow, Gisborne, and C153 Willowbank Road Commercial Rezoning. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Gisborne places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Gisborne's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.6% in the past year.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 4%. As of June 2025, 8,849 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation was 66.8%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors included construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction had a particularly high share at 1.6 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 7.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 4.0%, while labour force grew by 4.3%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Nov-25 showed Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 projected overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gisborne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Gisborne SA2 had an exceptionally high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers was $60,423 and the average income stood at $78,690. These figures compared to Greater Melbourne's of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $67,770 (median) and $88,259 (average) as of September 2025. Census data revealed household, family and personal incomes all ranked highly in Gisborne, between the 72nd and 83rd percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprised 31.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (4,897 residents), similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupied this bracket. Economic strength was evident through 36.7% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retained 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Gisborne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Gisborne, as per the latest Census, 91.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 94.7% houses and 5.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gisborne stood at 37.0%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.7% and rented ones at 14.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,014. Weekly rent in Gisborne was recorded at $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Gisborne's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gisborne features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 81.5% of all households, including 43.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 1.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Gisborne shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Gisborne trail regional benchmarks; 29.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (23.5%).

Educational participation is notably high; 32.6% of residents are currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gisborne has 76 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 14 routes that collectively facilitate 977 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as limited, with residents typically located 754 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 139 daily trips across all routes, which equates to around 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gisborne is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Gisborne shows above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population.

However, it has higher rates among older and at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Approximately 59% of Gisborne's total population (9,264 people) have private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.0% and 7.3% of residents respectively. About 70.6% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 69.3% across Greater Melbourne. Gisborne has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 17.6%, with 2,749 people in this age group, compared to Greater Melbourne's 18.7%.

Gisborne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gisborne's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Gisborne is Christianity, comprising 48.6% of the population. While Judaism makes up 0.1% of both Gisborne's and Greater Melbourne's populations, other religions are not specified.

The top three ancestry groups in Gisborne are English (29.2%), Australian (28.8%), and Irish (9.9%). Notably, Maltese (2.4%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 2.1%, Polish (1.0%) exceeds the regional figure of 0.8%, and Macedonian (0.3%) is slightly higher than the regional average of 0.2%.

Gisborne's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Gisborne has a median age of 40, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 5-14 cohort is notably over-represented in Gisborne at 15.5%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 7.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 13.5% of Gisborne's population, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 5.2% to 6.7%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 7.9% to 7.1%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Gisborne's age profile by 2041, with the 45-54 cohort projected to expand by 1,086 people (49%) from 2,236 to 3,323.