Gisborne

Gisborne lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Gisborne's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 16,036. This figure represents a 12.8% increase from the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,222. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 15,960 in June 2025 and an additional 781 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 76 persons per square kilometer. Gisborne's growth exceeded the SA3 area (8.7%) and the state average, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.7% to overall population gains, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive influences.

AreaSearch's projections are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year for SA2 areas. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas until 2041. According to demographic trends, a significant population increase is forecast for the top quartile of statistical areas nationwide, including Gisborne, which is expected to grow by 5,432 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 33.4% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Gisborne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Gisborne granted approval for around 192 residential properties annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 961 homes were approved, with an additional 118 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, each dwelling constructed over these years brought in 1.4 new residents.

This balance between supply and demand has maintained stable market conditions. The average construction value for new properties was $438,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $60.3 million, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gisborne has seen 48.0% more development per person over the past five years, offering good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

This level of activity is significantly above the national average, reflecting robust developer interest in the area. Recent construction comprises 97.0% standalone homes and 3.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving Gisborne's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. With around 89 people per dwelling approval, Gisborne exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Gisborne is projected to add 5,355 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Gisborne has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Gisborne Futures Structure Plan, Willow, Gisborne, C153 Willowbank Road Commercial Rezoning, and Gisborne Business Park Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Gisborne rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Gisborne's workforce is skilled with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.3% as of December 2025. There were 8,795 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 3.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 29.3% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment levels were at 1.6 times the regional average.

In contrast, professional & technical employed only 7.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Gisborne's labour force decreased by 0.7%, with employment decreasing by 0.5%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gisborne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Gisborne SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $63,833 with an average level standing at $83,297. This is higher than national levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year ended June 2023 to March 2026, current estimates would be approximately $69,974 for median income and $91,310 for average income as of March 2026. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Gisborne rank highly nationally, between the 72nd and 83rd percentiles. Income distribution data indicates that 31.4% of the population (5,035 individuals) fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 weekly income range, similar to the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 36.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, suggesting strong purchasing power in the community. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power post-housing expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gisborne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gisborne's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.3% houses and 8.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gisborne was at 37.0%, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (48.7%) or rented (14.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Gisborne was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gisborne's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gisborne features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.5% of all households, consisting of 43.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 1.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gisborne shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Gisborne's educational qualifications lag behind regional benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 29.1% have university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (18.9%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.7% of residents holding them; advanced diplomas account for 13.2%, while certificates make up 23.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.6% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gisborne has 76 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 9 routes, collectively providing 838 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to transport is rated as limited, with an average distance of 754 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 29.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 119 trips per day, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Gisborne's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Gisborne's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a standard level. Private health cover is exceptionally high, with approximately 61% of Gisborne's total population (9749 people) having it, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.0% and 7.3% of residents respectively. 70.6% of Gisborne residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Gisborne has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 17.6% (2828 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. National rankings for this age group are broadly in line with the general population.

Gisborne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gisborne's cultural diversity was below average, with 86.6% born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated Gisborne's religion at 48.6%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In ancestry, English (29.2%) and Australian (28.8%) were substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Irish ancestry stood at 9.9%. Maltese (2.4%), Polish (1.0%), and Macedonian (0.3%) were notably overrepresented compared to regional figures of 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively.

Gisborne's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Gisborne has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Gisborne has an over-representation of the 5-14 cohort (15.3% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (7.4%). Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group grew from 11.5% to 13.8%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 5.2% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 16.1% to 15.3%. Demographic projections suggest Gisborne's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 45-54 age group expected to expand notably, increasing by 1,101 people (48%) from 2,302 to 3,404.