Gisborne

Gisborne lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Gisborne's population is around 15,561 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,339 people (9.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,222 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,434 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 735 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 73 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Gisborne's 9.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (8.2%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 52.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 5,602 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 35.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Gisborne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Gisborne has recorded around 192 residential properties granted approval per year, with 961 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 95 so far in FY-26. Given an average of 1.4 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $438,000—moderately above regional levels—indicating an emphasis on quality construction. Additionally, $60.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gisborne has slightly more development (48.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. This activity is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. Recent construction comprises 97.0% standalone homes and 3.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 89 people per dwelling approval, Gisborne shows characteristics of a growth area.

Future projections show Gisborne adding 5,475 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Gisborne has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Willow Gisborne Community, Gisborne Futures Structure Plan, Willow, Gisborne, and C153 Willowbank Road Commercial Rezoning, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Gisborne rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Gisborne has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented and an unemployment rate of just 1.3%. As of December 2025, 8,795 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 3.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 29.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 7.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.7% combined with employment decreasing by 0.5%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Gisborne. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Gisborne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Gisborne SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $63,833 with the average level standing at $83,297. This is extremely high nationally and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $69,099 (median) and $90,169 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Gisborne, between the 72nd and 83rd percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 31.4% of the population (4,886 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 36.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gisborne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Gisborne, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.3% houses and 8.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Gisborne was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (48.7%) or rented (14.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Gisborne's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gisborne features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 81.5% of all households, comprising 43.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 1.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gisborne shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Gisborne trail regional benchmarks, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (23.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.6% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 76 active transport stops operating within Gisborne comprising a mix of train. These stops are serviced by 9 individual routes, collectively providing 838 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 754 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, above the regional average. A high 29.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 119 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Gisborne's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Gisborne residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with a standard level of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of the total population (9,461 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.0% and 7.3% of residents, respectively. While 70.6% of residents declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne, working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,836 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Gisborne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gisborne was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Gisborne is Christianity, which makes up 48.6% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Gisborne are English, comprising 29.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 28.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 9.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 2.4% of Gisborne (vs 1.1% regionally), Polish at 1.0% (vs 0.8%) and Macedonian at 0.3% (vs 0.7%).

Gisborne's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Gisborne is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 5 - 14 cohort is notably over-represented (15.4% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (6.9%). In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 13.6% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 5.2% to 7.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 7.9% to 6.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Gisborne's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, expanding by 1,100 people (50%) from 2,222 to 3,323.