Gisborne

Gisborne lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Gisborne's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 15,561. This figure represents an increase of 1,339 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,222. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,434 in June 2024 and an additional 735 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 73 persons per square kilometer. Gisborne's growth rate of 9.4% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area's growth rate of 8.2%, indicating it as a region leader in growth. Interstate migration contributed approximately 52.7% to overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Gisborne is projected to have a population increase of 5,602 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 35.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Gisborne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Gisborne has recorded approximately 192 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25961 homes were approved, with an additional 87 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of around 1.4 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years.

The supply and demand appear well-balanced, contributing to stable market conditions. The average value for new properties constructed is $438,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting a focus on quality construction. In terms of commercial development, $60.3 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gisborne has slightly more development, with 48.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 97.0% standalone homes and 3.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 89 people per dwelling approval, Gisborne exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate Gisborne adding 5,475 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Gisborne has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely affecting this region. Notable initiatives include Willow Gisborne Community, Gisborne Futures Structure Plan, Willow Gisborne, and C153 Willowbank Road Commercial Rezoning. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Gisborne rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Gisborne has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.6% in September 2025, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.6%.

There were 8,875 residents employed as of September 2025, with a workforce participation rate of 74.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 29.3% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment levels are particularly notable, at 1.6 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 7.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, while the labour force grew by 1.9%, causing a slight rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate that employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.2% over ten years in Gisborne, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Gisborne SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $63,833 with an average level standing at $83,297. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $69,099 (median) and $90,169 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Gisborne, between the 72nd and 83rd percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 31.4% of the population, which consists of 4,886 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 36.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gisborne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Gisborne, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This differs from Melbourne metro's composition of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gisborne stood at 37.0%, with mortgaged properties making up 48.7% and rented dwellings accounting for 14.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Gisborne was recorded at $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gisborne's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Gisborne features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.5% of all households, including 43.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 1.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gisborne shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Gisborne trail regional benchmarks; as of 2018, 29.1% of residents aged 15+ held university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 18.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Trade and technical skills featured prominently with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials; advanced diplomas accounted for 13.2% while certificates made up 23.5%. Educational participation was notably high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2018 census.

This included 12.5% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gisborne has 76 active public transport stops offering a mix of services. These are covered by 9 routes, serving 838 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 754 meters from the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with most commuting outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 29.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 119 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Gisborne's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Gisborne's health data shows positive outcomes for its residents. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely aligned with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are similar across both young and older age groups.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of Gisborne's total population (9,461 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.0%) and mental health issues (7.3%), while 70.6% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Gisborne has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 18.2% (2,836 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. National rankings for the area are broadly in line with the general population.

Gisborne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gisborne's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Gisborne, comprising 48.6% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.2%), Australian (28.8%), and Irish (9.9%). Maltese, Polish, and Macedonian groups showed notable divergences in representation: Maltese at 2.4%, Polish at 1.0%, and Macedonian at 0.3%.

Gisborne's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Gisborne has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Gisborne has a notably higher proportion of 5-14 year-olds (15.4% vs 12%) and a lower proportion of 25-34 year-olds (6.9% vs 10%). Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 13.6%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 5.2% to 7.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 7.9% to 6.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects a significant shift in Gisborne's age profile, with the 45 to 54 age cohort expected to grow by 1,100 people (50%) from 2,222 to 3,323.