Harkness

Harkness lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Harkness's population is estimated at around 13,343, reflecting an increase of 880 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 7.1% increase from the previous population count of 12,463. The latest estimate of 13,330 residents is based on AreaSearch's analysis of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 798 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Harkness has demonstrated consistent growth patterns, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%, outperforming the metropolitan area's average growth rate. Natural growth contributed roughly 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Harkness is expected to experience significant population growth, with an increase of 4,375 persons forecasted by 2041. This would represent a total gain of 32.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Harkness when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Harkness averaged around 43 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 216 homes were approved, with a further 18 approved so far in FY-26. On average, for each dwelling built over these years, around 4.1 people moved to the area.

This substantial lag of supply behind demand typically leads to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings was $388,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, there have been $8.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Harkness records markedly lower building activity, at 87.0% below the regional average per person, which usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This level is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New development consists of 94.0% detached houses and 6.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of people in the area per dwelling approval is 598, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Harkness will gain 4,298 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Harkness has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 23 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Hopkins Road Level Crossing Removal in Truganina (scheduled for completion on 18th June 2025), Western Freeway Upgrade from Melton to Caroline Springs (commenced on 1st April 2024, expected finish by 31st December 2026), Harkness Memorial Park development (set to begin on 1st July 2025), and Little Creek Estate project (planned start on 1st October 2024). The following list details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Harkness has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Harkness has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.1%.

As of June 2025, 6,772 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 3.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services are under-represented at 3.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1% and labour force by 5.8%, resulting in a 0.7 percentage point unemployment rise. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 3.5%, labour force expansion of 4.0%, and unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insights into potential future demand within Harkness. These projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Harkness's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Harkness's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $56,825. The average income stood at $64,667 during the same period. For Greater Melbourne, these figures were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022, Harkness's median income is estimated to be approximately $63,735, with the average being around $72,531. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Harkness rank modestly, between the 47th and 50th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. In Harkness, 41.4% of individuals (5,524 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the regional figure of 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Harkness, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile.

Harkness is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Harkness, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.0% houses and 6.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Melbourne metro's figure of 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. In terms of home ownership, Harkness had a rate of 16.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.9% and rented dwellings at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent figure for Harkness was recorded at $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Harkness's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Harkness features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.8% of all households, including 44.2% couples with children, 18.1% couples without children, and 17.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.2%, with lone person households at 17.2% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational attainment in Harkness aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 26.9%. Educational participation is high, with 36.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 14.9% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

Arnolds Creek Primary School serves the area, enrolling 778 students as of a specific date. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA score of 995, indicating typical Australian school conditions. Secondary options are available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 5.8 places per 100 residents, compared to the regional average of 16.2, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 33 active stops operating within Harkness, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by two routes, facilitating 2,222 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents generally located 310 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 317 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

Harkness's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Harkness.

Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~6,994 people), slightly leading that of the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.9% and 8.3% of residents respectively. Seventy-three point six percent of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.7% across Greater Melbourne. Seven point nine percent of residents are aged 65 and over (1,054 people), which is lower than the 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, requiring more attention than the broader population.

Harkness is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Harkness has a high level of cultural diversity, with 32.4% of its population born overseas and 33.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Harkness, making up 49.8% of the population. The most significant overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which comprises 5.2% of the population compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are Australian (22.0%), English (19.4%), and Other (17.2%). Notably, Maltese is overrepresented at 4.3% in Harkness compared to 5.1% regionally, Samoan at 2.2% versus 1.0%, and Serbian at 0.9% versus 0.8%.

Harkness hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Harkness has a median age of 30 years, which is notably younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Harkness has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.3%) but fewer individuals aged 55-64 (7.2%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is considerably above the national average of 12.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of Harkness residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 12.6% to 14.1%, while the percentage of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 16.5% to 14.6%. Demographic projections indicate that by 2041, Harkness's age profile will undergo significant changes, with the 45-54 age cohort expected to grow substantially, adding 827 people (a 54% increase) from 1,534 to 2,362.