Aintree

Aintree lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Aintree is around 14,440. This reflects an increase of 6,458 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,982. The change is inferred from the resident population of 12,737 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 1,292 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,145 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Aintree's 80.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), along with the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 25,684 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 178.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Aintree was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Aintree experienced around 423 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 2,117 homes. As of FY-26216 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 4.7 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25. Commercial approvals this financial year total $189.4 million, indicating robust local business investment.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has 121.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Nationally, Aintree's figures reflect strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Aintree's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 39 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections show Aintree adding 25,834 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Aintree has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that may impact this area. Notable projects are Woodlea Active Open Space Precinct, Woodlea Estate, Thornhill Park, and Bridgefield Estate. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Aintree ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Aintree has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate is 4.1%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.1%.

As of September 2025, 7,664 residents are employed, with a participation rate of 97.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. Transport, postal & warehousing is particularly strong, with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 6.1%, while labour force grew by 7.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.1 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Aintree's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, suburb of Aintree had median income among taxpayers at $56,267 with average level standing at $64,041. Both figures are below national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Considering Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $60,909 while average is projected at $69,324. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Aintree rank highly nationally, between 77th and 85th percentiles. Income distribution shows that majority, 47.0% or 6,786 people, fall within $1,500 to $2,999 weekly category, similar to broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. Higher earners, at 31.6%, exceed $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power in community. High housing costs consume 19.5% of income but strong earnings place disposable income at 79th percentile nationally with area's SEIFA income ranking placing it in fifth decile.

Aintree is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Aintree's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 99.1% houses and 0.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aintree stood at 5.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 73.8% and rented ones at 20.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Aintree was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aintree's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aintree features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 91.8% of all households, including 66.6% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 8.2%, with lone person households at 7.3% and group households at 1.1%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aintree shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Aintree is notably higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2021, 43.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 24.3% in the SA3 area and 30.4% nationally. This educational advantage is reflected in the high proportion of residents with bachelor degrees (27.7%), postgraduate qualifications (12.7%), and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (14.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 36.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census. This includes 15.3% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aintree has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by five distinct routes that together facilitate 1,188 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 213 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Aintree residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 88% of residents, while trains are employed by 9%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling in the area, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 25.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 169 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aintree's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Aintree. Mortality rates were assessed using AreaSearch's data, with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and closer to the national average among older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,533 people), leading the average SA2 area rate but slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (5.2%) and mental health issues (2.9%), with 87.2% of residents declaring themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Aintree has 2.9% of residents aged 65 and over (418 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in Aintree are above average but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Aintree is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aintree has a population where 54.3% were born overseas, and 67.9% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Aintree, with 36.0% of people adhering to it. However, the most significant overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which comprises 22.6% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are 'Other', with 35.0%, Indian with 18.9%, and Australian with 9.0%. The percentages for Other and Indian are notably higher than their respective regional averages of 14.6% and 4.2%, while Australians make up a notably lower percentage at 9.0% compared to the regional average of 18.4%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Filipino at 6.3%, Maltese at 3.7%, and Macedonian at 1.3%, all higher than their respective regional averages of 1.3%, 1.1%, and 0.7%.

Aintree hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 30 years, Aintree's median age is materially younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and is substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has a higher concentration of 35-44 residents at 26.8%, but fewer 55-64 year-olds at 3.5%. This 35-44 concentration is well above the national average of 14.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 5-14 age group grew from 18.7% to 22.3%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 23.7% to 26.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 21.8% to 14.7%, and the 0-4 group dropped from 12.9% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Aintree's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort projected to expand substantially, increasing by 6,354 people (164%) from 3,869 to 10,224.