Aintree

Aintree lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Aintree is around 14,440. This reflects an increase of 6,458 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,982. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 12,737 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 1,292 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,145 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Aintree's population growth of 80.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (9.9%) and state averages, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Aintree is predicted to experience exceptional growth in demographic trends over the period until 2041. The area is expected to grow by 8,147 persons by that year, reflecting a gain of 40.7% in total population over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Aintree was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis shows Aintree had approximately 416 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling around 2,081 homes. As of FY-26243 approvals have been recorded. On average, each home built accommodates about 4.8 new residents annually. This results in a significant demand outpacing supply, which may exert upward pressure on prices and intensify competition among buyers.

The average construction cost for new dwellings is around $373,000. Commercial approvals this financial year amount to approximately $189.4 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has seen 132.0% more new home approvals per capita. This offers buyers greater choice but building activity has slowed in recent years. Nationally, Aintree's developer confidence is strong, reflected in its high approval numbers.

New development consists mostly of standalone homes (92.0%) with a smaller proportion of townhouses or apartments (8.0%), preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 41 people per dwelling approval in Aintree, suggesting an expanding market. Future projections estimate that by 2041, Aintree will add around 5,871 residents based on current AreaSearch quarterly estimates. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Aintree has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can greatly be influenced by changes to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 16 such projects that could potentially impact this particular area. Notable among these are Woodlea Active Open Space Precinct, Woodlea Estate, Thornhill Park, and Bridgefield Estate. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Aintree maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Aintree has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate is 4.5%, with estimated employment growth of 3.1% in the past year (AreaSearch, December 2025). As of December 2025, 7,627 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is high at 93.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Census data shows 25.4% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing (2.6 times the regional level), but has lower representation in professional & technical services (6.7% vs Greater Melbourne's 10.1%).

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 4.6%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4%, labour force expand by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts (May-25) project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aintree's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Aintree had a median taxpayer income of $56,267 and an average income of $64,041. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $60,909 (median) and $69,324 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Aintree rank between the 77th and 85th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 47.0% of locals (6,786 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the broader area where 32.8% fall into this range. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 31.6% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 19.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Aintree is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Aintree, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 27 August 2016, comprised 99.1% houses and 0.9% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's structure of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aintree stood at 5.3%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (73.8%) or rented (20.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, recorded as of August 2016, while the median weekly rent figure was $420. In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had mortgage repayments of $2,000 and weekly rents of $390 at the same time. Nationally, Aintree's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 recorded in August 2016, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 for the same period.

Aintree features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 91.8% of all households, including 66.6% that are couples with children, 16.6% that are couples without children, and 7.6% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 8.2%, with lone person households at 7.3% and group households comprising 1.1% of the total. The median household size is 3.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aintree shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Aintree significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of a specific date range (2016 to 2021), 43.3% of residents aged 15 and above held university qualifications, compared to 24.3% in the SA3 area and 30.4% nationally in Australia. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 27.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%).

Trade and technical skills featured prominently, with 28.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (14.6%). Educational participation was notably high, with 36.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the same date range. This included 15.3% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aintree has 20 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by five routes, offering a total of 1,188 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 213 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 88%, while trains account for 9%. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 25.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 169 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aintree's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Aintree. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch to be low among the general population, nearing the nation's average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of the total population (~7,533 people), leading the average SA2 area rate but trailing Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.2 and 2.9% of residents respectively. Notably, 87.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, 2.0% of Aintree's population is aged 65 and over (288 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Aintree is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aintree has a population where 54.3% were born overseas, with 67.9% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Aintree, accounting for 36.0%. However, the category 'Other' comprises 22.6%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 35.0% (regional average: 14.6%), followed by Indian at 18.9% (regional average: 4.2%) and Australian at 9.0% (regional average: 18.4%). Notably, Filipino representation is higher at 6.3%, Maltese at 3.7%, and Macedonian at 1.3%.

Aintree hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Aintree's median age is 29, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (30.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (2.2%). This 35-44 concentration is significantly above the national average of 14.3%. Between 2021 and present, Aintree's median age has decreased by 1.4 years from 30 to 29, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. During this period, the 35-44 age group grew from 23.7% to 30.6%, while the 25-34 cohort declined from 21.8% to 18.6% and the 15-24 group dropped from 9.0% to 6.9%. Population forecasts for Aintree in 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes, with the 35-44 age group projected to grow by 34%, adding 1,502 residents to reach a total of 5,921. Conversely, the 85+ cohort is forecasted to show minimal growth of just 0%, with an increase of only 8 people.