Aintree

Aintree lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Aintree is around 13,942. This represents an increase of approximately 5,960 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,982. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 13,519 in June 2025, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 1,263 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,071 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 74.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (9.3%) and national averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch's projections for Aintree are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 3,343 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of around 16.6% in total over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Aintree was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Aintree had around 416 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 2,081 homes. As of FY-26313 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 3.8 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25. The demand significantly outpaces supply, potentially influencing prices and buyer competition.

New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $373,000. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $189.4 million, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has 91.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. This high level of approvals nationally reflects strong developer confidence in the area.

New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Aintree's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 35 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections estimate Aintree will add 2,317 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development patterns continue, new housing supply should meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Aintree has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could impact the region. Notable projects include Woodlea Active Open Space Precinct, Thornhill Park, Thornhill Park Estate, and Woodlea Town Centre. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Aintree faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Aintree has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 7.5% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, 2,655 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Aintree is significantly lower at 31.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

Census responses indicate that 25.4% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. Aintree shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level but has lower representation in professional & technical services at 6.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited as indicated by the working population vs resident population count.

Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 25.4% and employment declined by 27.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 3.3 percentage points in Aintree, compared to Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Aintree's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

In financial year 2023, Aintree suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $56,267 and an average level at $64,041. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average) for Greater Melbourne. By March 2026, estimated median income would be approximately $61,680 and average at $70,202, based on a 9.62% growth in Wage Price Index since financial year 2023. As of the 2021 Census, incomes in Aintree rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 85th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 47.0% (6,552 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, similar to the broader area's pattern at 32.8%. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 31.6% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 19.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Aintree is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Aintree's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 99.1% houses and 0.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aintree stood at 5.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 73.8% and rented ones at 20.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Aintree was $420, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aintree's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aintree features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 91.8% of all households, including 66.6% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 8.2%, with lone person households at 7.3% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aintree shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Aintree is notably high, with 43.3% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data available. This compares to 24.3% in the broader SA3 area and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 27.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 14.3% and certificates for 14.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 36.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest figures. This includes 15.3% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aintree has 20 active public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by five routes, offering 1,188 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically living 213 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 88%, while trains account for 9%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 25.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 169 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aintree's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Aintree, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Prevalence of common health conditions was low among the general population, nearing the nation's average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover rate stood at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,273 people), slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions were asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.2 and 2.9% of residents respectively. A total of 87.2% reported no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Aintree has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 2.0%, with 278 people in this age group compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Aintree is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aintree, one of the most culturally diverse areas in the country, has 54.3% of its population born overseas. A total of 67.9% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Aintree, comprising 36.0% of people.

However, there's an overrepresentation in Other religions, making up 22.6%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%. In terms of ancestry, Other groups comprise 35.0%, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%. Indian ancestry makes up 18.9%, also significantly higher than the regional average of 4.2%. Australian ancestry comprises 9.0%, notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%. Certain ethnic groups show notable divergences: Filipino at 6.3% (vs regional 1.3%), Maltese at 3.7% (vs regional 1.1%), and Macedonian at 1.3% (vs regional 0.7%).

Aintree hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Aintree has a median age of 28, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and significantly younger than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile reveals that those aged 35-44 are notably prominent, making up 30.2% of the population, while the 55-64 age group is comparatively smaller at 2.1%. This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.3%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, Aintree has seen a rejuvenation with its median age falling from 30 to 28 years. The key changes show that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 23.7% to 30.2%, while the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 12.9% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has declined from 9.0% to 6.4%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 7.3% to 5.7%. Population forecasts for Aintree in 2041 indicate substantial demographic shifts. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 17%, adding 716 residents to reach a total of 4,927. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 age group is forecasted to decrease by 101 residents.