Aintree

Aintree lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Aintree statistical area (Lv2) is around 14,298. This reflects a significant increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,982 people. The growth of 6,316 people (79.1%) is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 12,738 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and an additional 1,288 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,124 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Aintree (SA2)'s population growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (9.7%) and state averages, marking it as a significant growth leader in the region. This growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, exceptional growth is predicted for the Aintree statistical area (Lv2) over the period from 2025 to 2041, with an expected population increase of 25,422 persons. This reflects a total gain of 179.8% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Aintree was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Aintree experienced around 423 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 2,117 homes. As of FY-26216 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of approximately 4.7 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25. The demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $373,000. In FY-26, there have been $189.4 million in commercial approvals, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has 121.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Nationally, this is well above average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area.

New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Aintree's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 39 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections show Aintree adding 25,711 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Aintree has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely to influence the area. Notable projects include Woodlea Active Open Space Precinct, Woodlea Estate, Thornhill Park, and Bridgefield Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Aintree ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Aintree has a highly educated workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 4.1% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6%. As of September 2025, 7,652 residents were in work, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 75.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction.

Transport, postal & warehousing had an employment share of 2.6 times the regional level. Professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 6.7% of Aintree's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 6.0%, while labour force increased by 7.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aintree's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Aintree had a median taxpayer income of $56,267 and an average income of $64,041. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $60,909 (median) and $69,324 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, Aintree's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 85th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 47.0% of locals (6,720 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the broader area where 32.8% fall into this range. Higher earners make up a substantial presence at 31.6%, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 19.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Aintree is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

As per the latest Census evaluation in Aintree, 99.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 0.9% being other types such as semi-detached properties and apartments. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aintree stood at 5.3%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 73.8% and rented ones making up 20.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Aintree was $420, higher than Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Aintree's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aintree features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 91.8% of all households, including 66.6% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 8.2%, with lone person households at 7.3% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Aintree shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Aintree is notably higher than broader benchmarks. As of a specific date, 43.3% of residents aged 15 and above held university qualifications, compared to 24.3% in the SA3 area and 30.4% nationally in Australia. This high level of educational attainment positions the area favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 27.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 12.7% and graduate diplomas at 2.9%.

Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 14.3% and certificates at 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 36.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.3% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 20 active stops operating within Aintree, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by five individual routes, collectively providing 1,188 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 213 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 169 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aintree's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Aintree's health outcomes show excellent results across both younger and older age groups.

Common health conditions have a low prevalence in these cohorts. Private health cover rate is approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area (~7,459 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (5.2%) and mental health issues (2.9%). A significant majority, 87.2%, report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. Only 2.7% of residents are aged 65 or over (386 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Aintree is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aintree, one of the most culturally diverse areas in the country, has a population where 54.3% were born overseas and 67.9% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Aintree, with 36.0% of people identifying as such. Notably, the 'Other' category comprises 22.6% of the population, significantly higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (35.0%), Indian (18.9%), and Australian (9.0%). The percentages for Other and Indian are substantially higher than their regional averages of 18.2% and 5.9%, respectively, while Australian is notably lower at 9.0%. Additionally, certain ethnic groups show notable divergences: Filipino at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 3.4%, Maltese at 3.7% versus 5.1%, and Macedonian at 1.3% against 1.8%.

Aintree hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Aintree's median age is 30 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and significantly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (26.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (3.3%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 5 to 14 age group has increased from 18.7% to 21.8%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 23.7% to 26.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 21.8% to 16.0%, and the 0 to 4 group has dropped from 12.9% to 11.1%. Demographic modeling indicates that Aintree's age profile is projected to change significantly by 2041, with the 35 to 44 age cohort expected to expand substantially, growing by 6,420 people (170%) from 3,774 to 10,195.