Aintree

Aintree lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Aintree is around 11,825, reflecting a 48.1% increase since the 2021 Census which reported 7,982 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 10,418, based on latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), and an additional 1,288 validated new addresses since the Census date. The resulting population density is 1,757 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Aintree's growth exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors. AreaSearch projects Aintree's population to grow by 25,282 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 237.2% over the 17 years, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 25,282 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 237.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Aintree was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Aintree shows approximately 375 dwellings received development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1879 homes. As of FY26116 approvals have been recorded. On average, each home built between FY21 and FY25 accommodates around 5.3 new residents per year. This demand outpaces supply, potentially increasing competition among buyers and upward pressure on prices.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $373000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. Commercial approvals in Aintree this financial year totalled $762 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has 102% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice despite a recent slowdown in building activity. Nationally, Aintree's developer confidence is strong, with new development consisting of 92% standalone homes and 8% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 44 people per dwelling approval in Aintree, indicating an expanding market.

Latest AreaSearch quarterly estimates project Aintree to add 28044 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Aintree has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Woodlea Active Open Space Precinct, Woodlea Estate, Thornhill Park, and Bridgefield Estate. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Aintree ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Aintree has a highly educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0%.

As of June 2025, 6,842 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%, and workforce participation at 75.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. Transport, postal & warehousing is particularly strong, with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as shown by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 4.0% while labour force grew by 5.2%, leading to a 1.1 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aintree's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022 shows Aintree had a median income among taxpayers of $56,267 and an average income of $64,041. These figures are slightly below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year ending June 2022, estimated median income in Aintree as of September 2025 would be approximately $63,109, and average income would be around $71,828. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Aintree rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 85th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows that 47.0% of locals (5,557 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which is similar to the broader area where 32.8% fall into this range. Higher earners make up a substantial portion with 31.6% earning more than $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power in the community. High housing costs consume 19.5% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Aintree is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Aintree's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 99.1% houses and 0.9% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aintree stood at 5.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 73.8% and rented ones at 20.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent in Aintree was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Aintree's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aintree features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 91.8% of all households, including 66.6% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 8.2%, with lone person households at 7.3% and group households making up 1.1%. The median household size is 3.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Aintree shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Aintree is notably higher than broader benchmarks. 43.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 24.3% in the SA3 area and 30.4% nationally as of 2021 data. This significant educational advantage positions the area favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 27.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%).

Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (14.6%). Educational participation is high, with 36.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest census data. This includes 15.3% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education. Aintree's four schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,415 students while the area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1036) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes one primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents (12.0) are below the regional average (16.2), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 20 active transport stops in Aintree. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with 3 individual routes operating. Collectively, these routes provide 1,961 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 280 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 98 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aintree's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Aintree's health outcomes show excellent results with both young and elderly cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area (~6,169 people). Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 5.2% and 2.9% of residents respectively. 87.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 73.7% across Greater Melbourne. As of 10 May 2021, Aintree has 2.7% of its population aged 65 and over (319 people), lower than the 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Aintree is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aintree's population is culturally diverse, with 54.3% born overseas and 67.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Aintree, accounting for 36.0%. The 'Other' category comprises 22.6%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the largest group at 35.0% (higher than the regional average of 18.2%), followed by Indian at 18.9% (higher than the regional average of 5.9%) and Australian at 9.0% (lower than the regional average of 18.6%). Notably, Filipino representation is higher in Aintree at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 3.4%, Maltese is lower at 3.7% versus 5.1%, and Macedonian is also lower at 1.3% compared to 1.8%.

Aintree hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Aintree has a median age of 30 years, which is notably younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and significantly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aintree has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (26.4%), but fewer residents aged 55-64 (3.3%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, Aintree's population has shifted, with the 5-14 age group increasing from 18.7% to 21.8%, and the 35-44 cohort rising from 23.7% to 26.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 21.8% to 16.0%, and the 0-4 age group decreased from 12.9% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Aintree's age profile, with the 35-44 age cohort expected to expand substantially, growing by 7,010 people (225%) from 3,121 to 10,132.