Melton (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Melton (Vic.) is around 8,130, reflecting a 2.2% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,953 people. This increase was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 8,118 based on the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and additional 254 validated new addresses since the Census date. The current population density is 399 persons per square kilometer. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to expand by 1,377 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Melton has seen approximately 12 new home approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 62 homes. As of FY-2025/26, four approvals have been recorded. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new dwellings is $438,000, which is moderately above regional levels and suggests an emphasis on quality construction.

In the current financial year, there have been $5.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton shows substantially reduced construction activity (94.0% below regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This is also lower than national averages, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living and creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 83.0% houses), suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population density in Melton is 1157 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Melton is expected to grow by 1,367 residents through to 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Melton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 28 projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a 14.6% unemployment rate and an estimated 3.1% employment growth in the past year, as per AreaSearch data aggregation. As of September 2025, 3,144 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 10.0%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is lower at 55.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 14.5% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident indicates local employment opportunities are above average. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 5.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton's industry mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Melton had a median taxpayer income of $38,820 and an average income of $44,176 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, which was $57,688 for median income and $75,164 for average income in Greater Melbourne during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $42,023 (median) and $47,821 (average) in Melton. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Melton fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment comprises 29.7% of residents earning between $800 and $1,499 weekly. This is unlike broader trends where 32.8% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.6%, with mortgaged properties at 30.7% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Melton was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $300.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.7% of all households, including 23.7% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.3%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton has 59 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes that collectively provide 2,461 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in Melton is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward using their cars, which remains the dominant mode of transportation at 88%. Train usage stands at 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling in Melton, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 14.5% of Melton residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 351 trips per day, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 44% of the total population (around 3,612 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues, affecting 11.2% of residents, and arthritis, impacting 10.0%. Conversely, 58.4% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to higher chronic condition rates. The area has a larger senior population, with 23.3% aged 65 and over (1,894 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's population, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from June 2016, showed a higher degree of cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Specifically, 30.0% of Melton's residents were born overseas, and 25.0% spoke languages other than English at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Melton, with 51.0% of people adhering to it.

However, Islam had a higher representation in Melton compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 4.2% versus 3.6%. In terms of ancestry, Australian-born parents were most common at 23.8%, followed by English at 23.7%, and Other at 12.5%. Notably, Maltese, Serbian, and Samoan ethnic groups had higher representations in Melton compared to regional averages: Maltese at 4.3% versus 1.1%, Serbian at 0.8% versus 0.4%, and Samoan at 1.1% versus 0.3%.

Melton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Melton has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Melton has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (9.4%) but fewer people aged 25-34 (11.0%). Between 2021 and now, the percentage of people aged 75-84 increased from 6.2% to 9.4%, while those aged 15-24 rose from 11.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 25-34 decreased from 13.5% to 11.0%, and the 0-4 age group dropped from 6.4% to 5.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Melton's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to increase by 351 people (46%), reaching 1,116 people. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 54% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to decrease in population.