Melton (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Melton (Vic.) is around 8,443, reflecting a growth of 6.2% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,953. This increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 8,128 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 251 validated new addresses since the Census date. The current population density is approximately 414 persons per square kilometer. Melton's growth rate since the census is within 2.7 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting with weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb of Melton (Vic.), with an expected expansion of 1,376 persons, reflecting a total increase of 12.5% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 62 homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY26. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $438,000, aligning with regional patterns. Commercial approvals this financial year amount to $5.6 million, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton shows substantially reduced construction activity, 94.0% below the regional average per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This limited supply is also lower than national averages, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living and more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring diverse housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1157 people.

AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Melton's resident growth to be 1,053 by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Melton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 28 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Western Freeway Upgrade from Melton to Caroline Springs, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, and Melton Suburban Revitalisation. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Melton lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Melton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with high representation, an unemployment rate of 13.8% as of June 2025, and estimated employment growth of 4.5% over the past year.

There are 3,246 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 9.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is lower at 45.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.8, indicating more local employment opportunities than usual. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.5% while labour force grew by 5.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton's industry mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Melton's median taxpayer income in financial year 2022 was $38,820, with an average of $44,176 according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. By September 2025, estimated median income in Melton would be approximately $43,541, and the average would be around $49,548, based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Melton all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment in Melton comprises 29.7% of residents earning $800 - $1,499 weekly, compared to 32.8% falling within the $1,500 - $2,999 range in the broader area. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton was at 33.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.7% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Melton was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.7% of all households, including 23.7% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.3%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households making up 2.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Melton has lower university qualification rates at 13.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%). Educational participation is high at 30.2%, with 11.5% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Melton's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,071 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 984). The educational mix includes 2 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents are lower at 12.7 compared to the regional average of 16.2, with some students likely attending schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis indicates 60 operational transport stops in Melton, composed of buses. These are served by six distinct routes, offering a total of 4,070 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is ranked good, with residents typically situated 226 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 581 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. As of approximately mid-2021, around 44% (~3751 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 50.8%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions in Melton, affecting 11.2% and 10.0% of residents respectively, while 58.4% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. Melton has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.4% (1891 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in Melton generally align with the broader population's health profile.

Melton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 30.0% born overseas and 25.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton, accounting for 51.0% of its population. However, Islam showed an overrepresentation at 4.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (23.8%), English (23.7%), and Other (12.5%). Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 4.3% in Melton versus 5.1% regionally, Serbian remained similar at 0.8%, and Samoan was slightly higher at 1.1%.

Melton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Melton has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Melton at 11.9%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average. Conversely, the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 11.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.2% to 8.6% of Melton's population, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 13.5% to 11.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Melton's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 389 people (54%), reaching 1,116 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will contribute to 60% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.