Melton (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since Feb 2026, the suburb of Melton's population is estimated at around 8,130. This reflects an increase of 177 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,953 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,118, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 254 validated new addresses since Feb 2021. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 399 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Melton is expected to expand by 1,380 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 16.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton saw around 12 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years from FY-18 to FY-22, totalling an estimated 62 homes. In FY-26 so far, 4 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings were developed at an average expected construction cost of $438,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating quality construction emphasis.

In FY-26, there have been $5.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton shows substantially reduced construction (94.0% below regional average per person), supporting stronger demand and values for established properties. This is also lower than nationally, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% attached dwellings, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the area's existing housing composition of 83.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1157 people in the area. By 2041, Melton is expected to grow by 1,368 residents (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Melton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 28 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 15.1% and estimated employment growth of 1.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, 3,124 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is higher at 10.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Melton lags behind Greater Melbourne, at 55.0% versus 71.3%. A moderate 14.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Notably, the transport, postal & warehousing sector has high representation, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.3%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.8, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the year to December 2025, employment in Melton increased by 1.5% while the labour force grew by 4.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4%, with a labour force increase of 2.8% and an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand in Melton. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Melton had a median taxpayer income of $38,820 and an average income of $44,176 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national averages of $57,688 for median income and $75,164 for average income in Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, these figures are estimated to be approximately $42,023 (median) and $47,821 (average), based on a Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Melton all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment comprises 29.7% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (2,414 residents), unlike broader trends where 32.8% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.7% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Melton was recorded at $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.7% of all households, including 23.7% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.3%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton has 59 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 2,461 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is considered good, with residents typically living about 226 meters from the nearest stop. Most Melton residents commute outside the area, primarily by car (88%), while only 5% use trains. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in Melton, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 14.5% of Melton residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 351 trips per day, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 44% of Melton's total population (~3,612 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.0% of residents respectively. However, 58.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The working-age population in Melton faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Melton has a higher proportion of seniors (23.3%, or 1,894 people) than Greater Melbourne (15.1%). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton, surveyed in 2016, had a higher overseas-born population at 30.0%, compared to the local average of around 25%. In terms of language spoken at home, Melton's 25.0% was also higher than the regional norm. Christianity was the dominant religion, with 51.0% of people identifying as such.

Islam, however, was overrepresented in Melton compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 4.2% versus 3.6%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (23.8%), English (23.7%), and Other (12.5%). Notably, Maltese (4.3%), Serbian (0.8%), and Samoan (1.1%) ethnicities were more prevalent in Melton than regionally.

Melton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Melton has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton has a notably higher proportion of the 75-84 age group (9.4% locally) but a lower proportion of 25-34 year-olds (11.0%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group grew from 6.2% to 9.4%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 13.5% to 11.0% and the 0-4 group dropped from 6.4% to 5.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Melton's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 361 people (47%), growing from 764 to 1,126. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 55% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.