Melton (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Melton's population is estimated at around 8125, reflecting an increase of 172 people since the 2021 Census. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch validation of new addresses following the Jun 2024 ABS ERP data release and resulted in a density ratio of 398 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75% to recent population gains. AreaSearch projections for Melton (Vic.) SA2 are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 were used with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation to SA2 levels.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Melton (Vic.) is projected to expand by 1374 persons, reflecting an increase of 16.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 new home approvals per year over the past five financial years ending June 30, 2026, totalling an estimated 62 homes. As of April 2026, four approvals have been recorded. Despite a decline in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction value for new dwellings is $438,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction.

This financial year, Melton has seen $5.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 94.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Nationally, Melton's construction levels are also lower, indicating market maturity and potential development constraints. Recent construction comprises 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% attached dwellings, favouring higher-density living and creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing stock, which is currently 83.0% houses. The estimated population density per dwelling approval in Melton is 1157 people.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Melton is expected to grow by 1,369 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Melton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 28 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 14.6% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%. Compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%, Melton's unemployment rate is 10.0% higher, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Melton is significantly lower at 45.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. As of the Census, there are 0.8 workers for each resident, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 5.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 3.0%, the labour force grew by 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows that Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. This compares to the national rate of 4.3%, with Victoria's employment growth outpacing the national average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, assuming constant population growth for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Melton is $38,820 and the average is $44,176 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average of $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $42,023 and the average will be around $47,821, accounting for an 8.25% growth since financial year 2023. In Melton, household incomes fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The largest segment of earners in Melton comprises 29.7%, earning between $800 to $1,499 weekly, which is different from broader trends where 32.8% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.7% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Melton was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.7% of all households, including 23.7% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.3%, consisting of 33.1% lone person households and 2.9% group households. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton has 59 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 2,461 weekly passenger trips. The city's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents, on average, being located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 351 trips per day, which equates to roughly 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 44% of the total population (~3,609 people), compared to 51.1% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues are the most common condition, impacting 11.2% of residents, followed by arthritis affecting 10.0%.

Conversely, 58.4% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.4%, with 1,819 people, compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges to the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 30.0% born overseas and 25.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton, making up 51.0%. Islam comprised 4.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 6.3%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian was highest at 23.8%, substantially above the regional average of 18.6%. English followed at 23.7%, also significantly higher than the regional average of 16.9%. Other ancestry made up 12.5%, notably lower than the regional average of 18.2%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Maltese were overrepresented at 4.3% (vs 5.1%), Serbian was similar at 0.8%, and Samoan was slightly higher at 1.1% (vs 1.0%).

Melton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Melton has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing Melton's age distribution with Greater Melbourne, the 65-74 age group is notably over-represented at 11.9% locally, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 11.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.2% to 8.6% of Melton's population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 13.5% to 11.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Melton's age profile. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 60%, increasing from 698 to 1,116 people. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 57% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.