Melton (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Melton (Vic.) is around 8,122, reflecting an increase of 169 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.1% rise from the previous figure of 7,953 residents. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,079 in June 2025, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, combined with an additional 290 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 398 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver for this population growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to calculate population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, an above median population growth is anticipated in the suburb of Melton (Vic.), with an expected expansion of 1,364 persons by 2041, representing a 16.3% increase over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 62 homes were approved, with another 6 in FY-26 as of now. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes.

The average construction cost for new homes is $438,000, higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. Commercial approvals this year totalled $5.5 million, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton has significantly lower building activity (94.0% below average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is also below national averages, indicating the area's established status and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, a shift from the current 83.0% houses, suggesting decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. The population per dwelling approval is estimated at 1157 people. Population forecasts indicate Melton will gain 1,321 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Melton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 24 projects that could affect the area. Notable ones include Melton Line Upgrade and Level Crossing Removals, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Stockland Atherstone. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 15.1% and estimated employment growth of 1.5% in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 3,124 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 10.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is lower at 54.8% compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Home-based work accounts for 14.5% of jobs, considering potential Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Melton shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (2.2 times the regional level) but lower representation in professional & technical services (3.3% versus 10.1%).

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.8, indicating local employment opportunities are above average. Between December 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5%, while the labour force grew by 4.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Melton's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections mapped against the local employment profile.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Melton suburb is $38,820 and average income is $44,176. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 9.62% from July 2023 to March 2026, estimated current incomes in Melton are approximately $42,554 (median) and $48,426 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Melton rank between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. In Melton, 29.7% of the population earns within the $800 - $1,499 range, differing from surrounding regions where $1,500 - $2,999 is dominant at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melton, as per the latest Census, 83.2% of dwellings were houses while 16.7% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.7% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Melton was recorded at $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.7% of all households, including 23.7% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.3%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton has 59 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 2,461 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Melton is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuting in this primarily residential area is outward-bound. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 88%, while trains are used by 5% of residents. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.5% of Melton's residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 351 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 44% of the total population (~3,608 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, impacting 11.2 and 10.0% of residents respectively. However, 58.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Melton has a higher proportion of seniors, with 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,851 people), compared to 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, but national rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's population showed high cultural diversity, with 30.0% born overseas and 25.0% speaking a language other than English at home, exceeding most local markets. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton, accounting for 51.0%. Islam was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 4.2% of Melton's population versus 5.6%.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (23.8%) and English (23.7%) were top groups, both higher than regional averages of 18.4% and 19.0%, respectively. Other ancestry made up 12.5%. Notably, Maltese (4.3%), Serbian (0.8%), and Samoan (1.1%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional figures of 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively.

Melton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Melton has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Comparing Melton's demographics with Greater Melbourne, the 65-74 age group is notably over-represented at 11.9%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.2% to 8.9% of Melton's population, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 11.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 11.8%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 6.4% to 5.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Melton's age profile. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 323 people (45%), growing from 722 to 1,046. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 54% of total population growth, reflecting Melton's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.