Melton South

Melton South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Melton South is around 14,070. This reflects a growth of 2,708 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,362. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 13,631 in June 2024, based on ABS ERP data release and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,737 persons per square kilometer, placing Melton South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The suburb's growth rate of 23.8% since 2021 exceeds both national (9.9%) and state averages, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch projections for Melton South are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Melton South is expected to grow exceptionally over the period, adding 11,665 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 87.4% in total population over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Melton South recorded around 235 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1,179 homes. As of FY-26, 66 approvals have been granted. On average, 4.2 people moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand outpaces supply, which can put upward pressure on prices and increase buyer competition. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $341,000.

This financial year, $625,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South has about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 91st percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence. New development consists of 98.0% detached houses and 2.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban character while attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 70 people moving in for each dwelling approval, Melton South exhibits growth area characteristics.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 12,302 residents through to 2041. Development pace is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Melton South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones are Maplewood Estate, Toolern Precinct Structure Plan (Melton South / Weir Views Growth Area), Seventh Bend Estate, and Harkness Cemetery Memorial Park. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton South face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton South has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 13.6% in September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.5% over the past year. As of this date, 5761 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 9.0%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation stood at 65.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 14.7% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment were health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade, with notable concentration in the latter at 2.3 times the regional average. Professional & technical services showed lower representation at 3.8%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.5% while labour force grew by 6.3%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 2.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Melton South. These projections estimate national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Melton South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 indicates that Melton South had a median taxpayer income of $39,005 and an average income of $44,028. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 in Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $42,223 and $47,660 respectively. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Melton South fall between the 8th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data shows that 31.1% of Melton South's population (4,375 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton South, with only 81.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Melton South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Melton South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.0% houses and 14.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton South stood at 26.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.4%) or rented (36.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton South's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton South has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households are the majority, accounting for 68.8%. They include couples with children (29.9%), couples without children (18.8%), and single parent families (18.3%). Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.2%, made up of lone person households (27.6%) and group households (3.6%). The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with Greater Melbourne's average.

Educational outcomes in Melton South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high at 33.6%, with 13.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton South has 40 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 different routes, facilitating 5,173 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average located 233 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 85%, while trains account for 9%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 739 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 129 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton South is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton South faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 44% of the total population (~6,242 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 11.1 and 9.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. The working-age population has notably high chronic condition rates. Melton South has 13.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,829 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings.

Melton South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.2% of its population born overseas and 34.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Melton South is Christianity, accounting for 44.0% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprises 5.7% of Melton South's population, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (22.3%), English (20.8%), and Other (20.4%). The latter figure is significantly higher than the regional average of 14.6%. Some ethnic groups show notable disparities: Samoan at 1.7% in Melton South compared to 0.3% regionally, Maltese at 2.3% versus 1.1%, and Indian at 4.9% compared to 4.2%.

Melton South's population is younger than the national pattern

Melton South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (18.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.8%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 35 to 44 has grown from 14.6% to 17.7%, while the 5 to 14 age group increased from 15.3% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 15.1% to 12.8%, and the 65 to 74 age group has dropped from 9.6% to 7.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Melton South, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to grow by 125%, adding 1,950 residents to reach a total of 3,512.