Melton South

Melton South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Melton South's population is estimated at around 14,419 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 3,057 people (26.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,362 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 14,234, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, and an additional 595 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,805 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melton South's 26.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (9.3%), along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national areas, is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 9,769 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 66.5% in total over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Melton South has recorded around 223 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1,118 homes. So far in FY-26, 89 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.7 new residents gained for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, this indicates healthy demand supporting property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $341,000.

In comparison, Greater Melbourne records around three-quarters the building activity per person while Melton South places among the 90th percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 98.0% detached houses and 2.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 78 people per dwelling approval, Melton South shows characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate Melton South will gain 9,584 residents through to 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate.

Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Melton South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects expected to affect the region. Notable ones include Maplewood Estate, Toolern Precinct Structure Plan (Melton South / Weir Views Growth Area), Seventh Bend Estate, and Harkness Cemetery Memorial Park. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Melton South face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton South has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate is 15.1%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data as of December 2025. There are 5,078 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 10.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation lags significantly at 56.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 14.7% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force increased by 1.9%, while employment decreased by 2.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 3.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Melton South. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Melton South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Melton South had a median taxpayer income of $39,005 and an average of $44,028. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 in Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year 2023 to March 2026, estimated median income is approximately $42,757 and average income is $48,263. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Melton South fall between the 8th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.1% of residents (4,484 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Melton South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Melton South, as per the latest Census evaluation, 86.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 14.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton South stood at 26.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.4% and rented ones at 36.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $300 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $300.

Melton South has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 18.8% couples without children, and 18.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 27.6% and group households at 3.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Melton South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 13.4% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton South has 40 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 different routes, collectively facilitating 5,173 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good with residents typically located 233 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 85%, while train usage stands at 9%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, some 14.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 739 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 129 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton South is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton South faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, with approximately 44% of the total population (~6,397 people) having it, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 11.1 and 9.4% of residents respectively. However, 64.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The working-age population has notably high chronic condition rates. Only 12.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,802 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

Melton South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.2% of its population born overseas and 34.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Melton South is Christianity, accounting for 44.0% of the population. Notably, the category 'Other' comprises 5.7% of Melton South's population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (22.3%), English (20.8%), and Other (20.4%). The latter is significantly higher than the regional average of 14.6%. Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Samoan at 1.7% in Melton South compared to 0.3% regionally, Maltese at 2.3% versus 1.1%, and Indian at 4.9% versus 4.2%.

Melton South's population is younger than the national pattern

Melton South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.8%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.0%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has increased from 15.3% to 18.5%, while the proportion of those aged 35-44 has risen from 14.6% to 17.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 15.1% to 12.8%, and the proportion of those aged 65-74 has dropped from 9.6% to 7.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Melton South, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age group, which is expected to increase by 100%, adding 1,594 residents to reach a total of 3,195.