Melton South

Melton South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The estimated population of the suburb of Melton South is around 14,070 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 2,708 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,362. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 13,631 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 595 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,737 persons per square kilometer, placing Melton South in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth rate of 23.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average of 9.9%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 10,517 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 71.6% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Melton South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, derived from statistical area data, shows Melton South recorded approximately 223 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 1,118 homes. As of FY-26, 75 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 4.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built, indicating demand outpacing supply.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $341,000. This financial year has seen $625,000 in commercial approvals registered, reflecting Melton South's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South records about three-quarters the building activity per person, yet it ranks among the 89th percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence. New development consists of 98.0% detached houses and 2.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature with a focus on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 83 people per dwelling approval, Melton South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate Melton South will gain approximately 10,078 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-suited to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Melton South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones are Maplewood Estate, Toolern Precinct Structure Plan (Melton South / Weir Views Growth Area), Seventh Bend Estate, and Harkness Cemetery Memorial Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Melton South face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton South has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 14.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9%. As of December 2025, there are 5,720 residents employed, while the unemployment rate is 9.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation lags at 65.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A moderate 14.7% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.9%, and labour force increased by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 3.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton South's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Melton South had a median taxpayer income of $39,005 and an average income of $44,028. Both figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $42,223 and $47,660 respectively. As per the 2021 Census, Melton South's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 8th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data shows that 31.1% of the population (4,375 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton South, with only 81.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Melton South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Melton South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 86.0% houses and 14.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton South stood at 26.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.4% and rented ones at 36.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton South has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 18.8% couples without children, and 18.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 31.2%, comprising 27.6% lone person households and 3.6% group households. The median household size is 2.6 people, aligning with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Melton South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton South has 40 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 different routes, collectively facilitating 5,173 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is good with residents typically located 233 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, with car being the dominant mode at 85%, while 9% use train services. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 739 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 129 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton South is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton South faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. Mental health issues impact 11.1% of residents, while asthma affects 9.4%.

Only 64.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Private health cover is low at approximately 44%, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. Working-age population health challenges are notable due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 13.3% residents aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, largely in line with national rankings.

Melton South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton South's population has a significant overseas-born proportion, with 35.2%. This is reflected in the language spoken at home, where 34.6% use a language other than English. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 44.0% of Melton South residents.

The 'Other' religious category shows an overrepresentation compared to Greater Melbourne, with 5.7% versus 2.3%. In terms of ancestry, Australian (22.3%), English (20.8%), and Other (20.4%) are the top groups, with Other being notably higher than the regional average of 14.6%. Some ethnic groups show significant representation in Melton South compared to Greater Melbourne: Samoan at 1.7% versus 0.3%, Maltese at 2.3% versus 1.1%, and Indian at 4.9% versus 4.2%.

Melton South's population is younger than the national pattern

Melton South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the latest data, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has increased from 15.3% to 18.6%, while the proportion of those aged 35 to 44 has risen from 14.6% to 17.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 15.1% to 12.0%, and the proportion of those aged 65 to 74 has fallen from 9.6% to 8.1%. Population forecasts for Melton South in 2041 indicate substantial demographic shifts, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 age cohort, expected to grow by 105% and add 1,670 residents, reaching a total of 3,260.