Melton South

Melton South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of the Melton South statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 13,958 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 2,596 people from the 2021 Census population of 11,362, indicating a growth rate of 22.8%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 13,631 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 594 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,715 persons per square kilometer, placing Melton South (SA2) in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The significant growth experienced by Melton South (SA2), at 22.8% since the 2021 Census, exceeded both the national average of 9.7% and the state's growth rate. This growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 and adjusts them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on these aggregated SA2-level projections, exceptional growth is predicted for Melton South (SA2) over the period from 2025 to 2041. The area is expected to grow by an additional 11,761 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 89.7% in total population over the 17-year span.

The level of residential development activity in Melton South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis shows Melton South granted around 235 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1,179 homes. As of FY-26, 66 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.2 people move to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. This demand significantly outpaces supply, potentially driving up prices and intensifying competition among buyers.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $341,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals valued at $625,000 have been registered, indicating the area's residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South records approximately three-quarters the building activity per person while ranking among the 91st percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 98.0% detached houses and 2.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature with detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 70 people per dwelling approval, Melton South exhibits growth area characteristics. Population forecasts indicate Melton South will gain 12,521 residents by 2041, with development keeping pace with projected growth despite increasing competition among buyers as the population expands.

Melton South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects that could impact the area. Notable ones are Maplewood Estate, Toolern Precinct Structure Plan (Melton South / Weir Views Growth Area), Seventh Bend Estate, and Harkness Cemetery Memorial Park. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Melton South face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton South has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 13.6% in September 2025, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. As of September 2025, 5,783 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 9.0%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 49.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents included health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade.

The area had a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 3.8% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, while labour force increased by 6.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period, with labour force growth of 3.3%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from November 25 showed Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. This compared to the national rate of 4.3%, with the state's employment growth outpacing the national average of 0.14%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, projected national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton South's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data shows Melton South had a median taxpayer income of $39,005 and an average income of $44,028 in financial year 2023. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates suggest median and average incomes will be approximately $42,223 and $47,660 respectively, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Melton South's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 8th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.1% of residents (4,340 individuals) earning within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 81.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile.

Melton South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melton South, as per the latest Census, 86.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 14.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Melbourne's metropolitan area where 90.9% of dwellings are houses, and 9.1% are other types. Home ownership in Melton South stood at 26.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.4% and rented ones at 36.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne's metro average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Melton South was $300, compared to Melbourne's metro figure of $351. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863, and rents were $375 per week.

Melton South has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 18.8% couples without children, and 18.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 27.6% and group households making up 3.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton South has 42 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 different routes, which together facilitate 5,173 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents generally situated 233 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 739 trips daily across all routes, translating to around 123 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton South is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Melton South faces significant health challenges with a notably higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to average, particularly among older age groups. As of approximately 2021, around 44% (~6,193 people) have private health cover, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 51.1% and the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues affect 11.1% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.4%, with 64.8% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.9% (1,800 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Melton South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.2% of its population born overseas and 34.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Melton South, with 44.0% of people identifying as such. However, there is an overrepresentation of Other religions, comprising 5.7% of the population compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian at 22.3%, English at 20.8%, and Other at 20.4%. Notably, Samoan is overrepresented at 1.7% in Melton South compared to 1.0% regionally, Maltese at 2.3% compared to 5.1%, and Indian at 4.9% compared to 5.9%.

Melton South's population is younger than the national pattern

Melton South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.7%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has increased from 15.3% to 18.2%, while the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has grown from 14.6% to 17.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 has declined from 9.6% to 7.9%, and the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 15.1% to 13.7%. Population forecasts for Melton South indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to grow by 132%, adding 2,009 residents and reaching a total of 3,531.