Melton South

Melton South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Melton South is around 14,080. This reflects a growth of 2,718 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,362. The latest estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 13,812. This results in a density ratio of 2,739 persons per square kilometer, placing Melton South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. Melton South's growth rate of 23.9% since the 2021 Census exceeds both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. This growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains.

All drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest exceptional growth for Melton South over the period until 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 11,669 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 87.4% in total population over these 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Melton South had approximately 239 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,196 homes. As of FY-26, 39 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.1 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating high demand outpacing supply. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $341,000, below the regional average.

This year, $1.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South has 19.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 89th percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence. New development consists of 98.0% detached houses and 2.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving Melton South's suburban character. With around 83 people per dwelling approval, it exhibits growth area characteristics.

Latest AreaSearch quarterly estimates project Melton South to gain 12,307 residents by 2041, with development keeping pace with projected growth.

Melton South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects that could impact the region. Major initiatives include Maplewood Estate, Toolern Precinct Structure Plan (Melton South / Weir Views Growth Area), Seventh Bend Estate, and Harkness Cemetery Memorial Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Melton South are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Melton South has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 13.3% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.8%.

As of June 2025, 5,583 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 8.7%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation lags at 49.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.8% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8%, labour force grew by 5.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.7 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising 0.5 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Melton South had a median taxpayer income of $39,005 and an average income of $44,028. These figures are below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 in Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Melton South would be approximately $43,748 (median) and $49,382 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Melton South fall between the 8th and 14th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution data shows 31.1% of the population (4,378 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton South, with only 81.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Melton South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melton South, as per the latest Census, 86.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 14.0% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan's figures of 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton South stood at 26.1%, with mortgaged properties at 37.4% and rented ones at 36.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Melton South was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton South has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.8 percent of all households, including 29.9 percent couples with children, 18.8 percent couples without children, and 18.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.2 percent, with lone person households at 27.6 percent and group households comprising 3.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high at 33.6%, with 13.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Six schools operate in Melton South, educating approximately 4,824 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 983) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. The area functions as an education hub with 34.3 school places per 100 residents, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton South has 43 active public transport stops operating. These include both train and bus services. There are 19 unique routes serving these stops, collectively facilitating 8,530 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically located 235 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 1,218 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 198 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton South is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Melton South faces significant health challenges with a notably higher prevalence of common conditions compared to average, particularly among older residents. Approximately 44% (~6,247 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 50.8% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues affect 11.1% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.4%, with 64.8% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne.

12.9% (1,816 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Melton South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.2% of its population born overseas and 34.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Melton South, accounting for 44.0% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which makes up 5.7% of Melton South's population compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups in Melton South are Australian (22.3%), English (20.8%), and Other (20.4%). There are also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Samoan is overrepresented at 1.7% compared to the regional average of 1.0%, Maltese is underrepresented at 2.3% compared to 5.1%, and Indian is slightly underrepresented at 4.9% compared to 5.9%.

Melton South's population is younger than the national pattern

Melton South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.7%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the latest data, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has increased from 15.3% to 18.3%, while the proportion of those aged 35 to 44 has risen from 14.6% to 17.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 has declined from 9.6% to 7.9%, and the proportion of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 15.1% to 13.7%. Population forecasts for Melton South indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 age cohort, which is expected to grow by 130%, adding 1,989 residents to reach a total of 3,524.