Kurunjang - Toolern Vale

Population growth drivers in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population is around 12,105 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 473 people (4.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,632 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,069 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 100 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 58.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 3,294 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 26.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has seen around 32 new homes approved each year, with 163 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 7 so far in FY-26. At an average of just 1 new resident per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $224,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale records markedly lower building activity (90.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Meanwhile, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 1093 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is expected to grow by 3,258 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 43 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Cobblebank Train Stabling Facility, Outlook Ride Estate, Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs, and Penny Royal Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 7.5%, and 4.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,150 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 17.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area shows particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.8% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 4.0% while the labour force increased by 4.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Kurunjang - Toolern Vale SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,044, with an average of $61,265. This is below the national average, and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,503 (median) and $66,319 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, between the 29th and 38th percentiles. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 36.7% of locals (4,442 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kurunjang - Toolern Vale was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 26.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (50.4%) or rented (22.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,517, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $321, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.2% of all households, comprising 36.3% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 16.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.0%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (29.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 37 active transport stops operating within Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 1,739 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 438 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 17.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 248 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,028 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 9.6% of residents, respectively, while 67.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 13.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,594 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 24.0% of its population born overseas and 21.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is Christianity, which makes up 53.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.9% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale are Australian, comprising 24.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, English, comprising 23.5% of the population, and Other, comprising 11.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 6.3% of Kurunjang - Toolern Vale (vs 1.1% regionally), Samoan at 1.4% (vs 0.3%) and Serbian at 0.8% (vs 0.4%).

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's median age of 35 years stands slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 as well as somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 5 - 14 age group shows strong representation at 14.6% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 12.8%. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.3% to 4.2% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 14.4% to 12.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 699 people (47%) from 1,471 to 2,171. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 9% (72 people).