Kurunjang - Toolern Vale

Population growth drivers in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population was approximately 12,088 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 456 people from the 2021 Census count of 11,632 individuals. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 12,069 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 100 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 58.1% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts and latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is forecasted to increase by 3,294 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 27.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has received around 32 dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 163 homes. In FY-26 so far, there have been 4 approvals. On average, one person moves to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25.

New construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering buyers more options while enabling population growth that could surpass expectations. The average construction value of new properties is $701,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with high-end properties. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has significantly reduced construction activity (90% below regional average per person), which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This activity also falls below national averages, suggesting maturity in the area and possible planning constraints. All new constructions since FY-21 have been detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

As of now, there are approximately 1093 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is projected to gain 3275 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 43 potential impact projects. Notable ones are Cobblebank Train Stabling Facility, Outlook Ride Estate, Western Freeway Upgrade from Melton to Caroline Springs, and Penny Royal Estate. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Kurunjang - Toolern Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 7.5% and employment growth of 5.8% in the past year as of June 2025.

There are 6,245 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.4%, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is lower at 61.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparisons. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.8%, while labour force and unemployment remained relatively stable in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% with a slight increase in unemployment. State-wide in Victoria as of Nov-25, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment is forecast to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Kurunjang - Toolern Vale SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $50,704 and an average of $57,700. This was below the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's median income was $54,892 with an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $56,870 (median) and $64,716 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale ranked modestly, between the 29th and 38th percentiles. Distribution data showed that 36.7% of locals (4,436 people) fell into the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupied this category. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale stood at 26.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.4% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent in the area was $321, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,517 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $321.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.2% of all households, including 36.3% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 16.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 22.8%, comprising 20.0% lone person households and 2.8% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 10.3% and certificates for 29.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 37 active public transport stops within Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, offering a variety of bus services. These stops are served by four individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,875 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing 438 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 410 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 77 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Approximately 49% of the total population (~5,911 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 9.7% and 9.6% of residents respectively. However, 67.0% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments compared to 73.7% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.8% (1,543 people) than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to the challenges they present.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kurunjang-Toolern Vale had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.0% of its residents born overseas and 21.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kurunjang-Toolern Vale, accounting for 53.4% of the population. However, the most significant overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, comprising 1.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian was the top group at 24.0%, higher than the regional average of 18.6%. English followed with 23.5%, above the regional average of 16.9%, while Other stood at 11.3%, lower than the regional average of 18.2%. Notably, Maltese (6.3% vs 5.1%), Samoan (1.4% vs 1.0%) and Serbian (0.8% vs 0.8%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Kurunjang-Toolern Vale's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 14.8%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 13.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 3.3% to 3.9% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 14.4% to 13.1%. By 2041, demographic changes are forecasted: the 55 to 64 age group is projected to rise by 731 people (51%), from 1,439 to 2,171, and the 0 to 4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 6% (50 people).