Kurunjang - Toolern Vale

Population growth drivers in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population was 12,202 as of May 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This represented an increase of 570 people from the 2021 Census figure of 11,632, reflecting a growth rate of 4.9%. This change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,082 in June 2025 and the addition of 43 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was 101 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 55.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch used ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Kurunjang - Toolern Vale expected to grow by 3,144 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 24.8% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has seen approximately 32 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 163 homes were approved, with an additional 11 approved in FY-26 so far.

The average number of new residents per year per new home over these five years is about one. This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $224,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale records significantly lower building activity, with an 89.0% difference below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties.

Nationally, this area also reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent development in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 1093 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is expected to grow by approximately 3,024 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 38 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Cobblebank Train Stabling Facility, Outlook Ride Estate, Penny Royal Estate, and Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent. Unemployment rate was 7.5% in December 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0%.

As of December 2025, 6150 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.5%, which is 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation is at the same level as Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses in December 2025, 17.6% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level, but has lower representation in professional & technical services at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year ending December 2025, employment increased by 4.0%, while labour force grew by 4.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had an employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest data released for financial year 2023 shows Kurunjang - Toolern Vale SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $54,044 and an average of $61,265. This is below the national average. Greater Melbourne's median was $57,688 with an average of $75,164. By March 2026, estimated incomes are approximately $59,243 (median) and $67,159 (average), based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's incomes rank modestly, between the 29th and 38th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 4,478 people (36.7% of locals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale stood at 26.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.4% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $321, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were below the national figure of $375.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.2% of all households, including 36.3% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 16.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (29.8%). Educational participation is high at 31.2%, comprising primary education (11.9%), secondary education (8.8%), and tertiary education (3.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 37 active transport stops operating within Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 1,739 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 438 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 17.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 248 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health challenges in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,076 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (9.7%) and asthma (9.6%). Only 67.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age population health is notably challenged by high chronic condition rates. Seniors make up 13.4% of the population (1,633 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes present some challenges but align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kurunjang-Toolern Vale has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.0% of its population born overseas and 21.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kurunjang-Toolern Vale, comprising 53.4% of the population. However, there's an overrepresentation in Other religions, with 1.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (24.0%), English (23.5%), and Other (11.3%). Notably, Maltese (6.3%) Samoan (1.4%), and Serbian (0.8%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.1%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 14.4%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 13.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 3.3% to 4.2%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 14.4% to 13.3%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic shifts in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. The 55-64 age group is projected to grow by 653 people (45%), rising from 1,453 to 2,107. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 7% (59 people).