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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has an estimated 12,202 residents, up from 11,632 at the 2021 Census — a change of 570 people, or 4.9%. That puts 101 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Based on demographic assessments, the population of Kurunjang - Toolern Vale stands at approximately 12,202 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 570 residents (4.9%) relative to the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 11,632 individuals. This shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 12,082 alongside 43 validated new addresses registered since the Census. Such population numbers translate to a density of 101 persons per square kilometer, indicating low-density living and capacity for future expansion. Natural increase was the primary contributor to demographic gains, accounting for roughly 55.5% of the total population rise in recent times.
Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024, utilising 2022 as the baseline, are applied to each SA2 region. For locations lacking this coverage, figures are derived from the 2023 Victorian State Government regional and LGA projections, adjusted via a weighted aggregation method to translate LGA growth to the SA2 scale. Age-specific growth rates from these aggregations are also utilized for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Looking forward, the region is projected to experience population expansion placing it within the highest quartile of Australian statistical territories, with a forecast increase of 3,144 residents by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP statistics, representing a 24.8% growth rate over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
163 new dwellings have been approved in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale over the past five years, an average of 32 a year. That is 2.7 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 12, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Approximately 32 residential building approvals have been granted annually in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, culminating in 163 residential units over the preceding 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 11 permits have been logged. The ratio of population growth to construction is low, with an average of 0.6 people added per completed dwelling over the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), indicating that supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, expanding choices for buyers and allowing for potentially higher population growth than forecast, with new dwellings built at an average cost of $224,000—below the wider region's average—reflecting relatively affordable residential construction options.
In comparison to Greater Melbourne, residential construction activity in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is low, tracking 89.0% below the regional per capita average. This limited volume of new housing typically supports demand and values for established homes. Construction rates also sit below the national benchmark, indicating a mature local market and potential planning barriers. All new building approvals have consisted of detached houses, preserving the classic low-density profile of the suburb and prioritizing family-oriented properties. The ratio of 1102 residents per single dwelling approval highlights the quiet pace of building activity. Demographic projections indicate that Kurunjang - Toolern Vale will add 3,024 residents by 2041, calculated from the most recent quarterly estimate. If the pace of residential development does not accelerate, new housing supply could fall short of demand, increasing competition among purchasers and driving up property values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Kurunjang - Toolern Vale
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 8 current infrastructure and development projects inside Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, worth an estimated $374 million. A further 192 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $76.1 billion. 96 are already under construction and 66 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans communities, precincts & urban renewal, residential development and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Suburban development is heavily shaped by changes in local infrastructure, major construction projects, and zoning decisions. AreaSearch has tracked 38 key projects expected to influence the local area. Principal developments include the Cobblebank Train Stabling Facility, Outlook Ride Estate, Penny Royal Estate, and the Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, with the following list detailing those of most significance.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Little Creek Estate
A boutique house-and-land community delivering 106 homes across roughly 12 hectares in Kurunjang, within the City of Melton. The estate sits on Minns Road and features titled and settled lots across streets including Claudia Crescent, Norwood Avenue and Kinane Street, with land releases continuing into 2026 (Stage 12 titling April 2026, Stage 15 currently selling). Lots range from around 300sqm to over 600sqm, with house and land packages available through builders such as Mimosa Homes, Homebuyers Centre and Metricon.Sales and enquiries are handled by Oliver Hume.
MacPherson Park Regional Recreation Reserve Master Plan
Ongoing multi-stage masterplanned redevelopment of the 120-hectare MacPherson Park regional sporting precinct servicing Toolern Vale, Melton, and surrounding areas, delivering new sports pavilions (Rugby, Gridiron, Football, Cricket, Soccer), synthetic ovals, netball courts, upgraded car parking, and lighting infrastructure.
Outlook Ride Estate
A premium residential land estate offering generously sized allotments ranging from 2004 to 2323 square meters in the peaceful suburb of Kurunjang. The development features approximately 20 large blocks suitable for custom home construction, with some lots offering picturesque views of Little Blind Creek and Reserve. Located 44km northwest of Melbourne CBD with excellent access to schools, shopping centers including Woodgrove Shopping Centre, and transport via Western Freeway and Melton Train Station.
Cobblebank Train Stabling Facility
New stabling and light maintenance yard in Cobblebank to support the Melton Line Upgrade and the introduction of longer 9-car VLocity trains. The yard will stable 6 trains and include signalling and communications systems, worker facilities and parking, CCTV and lighting, and direct connections to the Melton Line. Site is approximately 700 m east of the new Melton Station, enabling early morning services and more reliable operations on the upgraded corridor.
Melton East Precinct Structure Plan (Amendment C244melt)
A master-planned growth corridor spanning 1,005 hectares directly adjacent to the western boundary of Aintree and 35km northwest of Melbourne CBD. The draft plan facilitates approximately 12,900 new dwellings for over 40,000 residents, along with 23 hectares of employment land, local activity centres, primary schools, and open space.
Penny Royal Estate
A completed residential house and land estate in Kurunjang, located in the Melbourne West Growth Corridor. The estate features approximately 239 lots with house and land packages. The development is now fully sold out with established homes throughout the community. The estate offers well-established amenities, local parks and open spaces in a family-friendly atmosphere, with convenient access to schools, recreation facilities, and the Western Freeway providing 40-minute commute to Melbourne CBD.
Kurunjang Secondary College Upgrade
Comprehensive upgrade and modernisation of the co-educational secondary school built in 1986. Construction of new learning building to provide better learning spaces for students.
Little Creek Estate
Boutique house and land estate of approximately 100 lots featuring wetlands and Little Blind Creek frontage, surrounded by parklands and nature reserves. Located in the City of Melton, approximately 40 minutes west of Melbourne CBD with access to Melton Station and the Western Freeway.
6,131 residents of Kurunjang - Toolern Vale are employed, from a labour force of 6,610. Unemployment sits at 7.2%, with participation at 69.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 9,506, about 78% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local economy is supported by a diverse workforce of both white-collar and blue-collar workers, with construction representing a major employment sector, an unemployment rate of 7.2%, and an estimated job growth rate of 2.7% over the prior year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 6,131, while the local unemployment rate was 2.5% higher than the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8%, and the participation rate aligned closely with the metropolitan average of 70.2%. Census data indicates that a moderate 17.6% of the workforce worked from home, though this figure should be interpreted in the context of COVID-19 restrictions.
The primary employment sectors for local workers are construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing. The local area displays a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with its employment share tracking at 2.2 times the metropolitan average. Conversely, professional & technical services are underrepresented, accounting for 3.8% of employment compared to the regional figure of 10.1%. A comparison of the Census working population against resident workers suggests that local employment opportunities within the suburb itself are limited. According to analyses of SALM and ABS data, the year leading to March 2026 saw employment levels rise by 2.7% and the labour force expand by 1.9%, which led to a 0.7 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force expansion of 2.3%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment projections from May-25 published by Jobs and Skills Australia provide context for future local demand. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential expansion. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely across individual sectors. Applying these sector-specific rates to the local employment structure indicates potential job growth of 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years (this represents a basic weighted extrapolation for context and does not incorporate local population projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is $1,556 a week (about $81,000 a year), with median personal income at $704 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $54,044 a year against an average of $61,265. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest ATO postcode statistics for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Kurunjang - Toolern Vale SA2 recorded a median income of $54,044 and an average income of $61,265. These figures sit below national averages, and compare to a median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 across Greater Melbourne. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to a median income of approximately $59,243 and an average of $67,159 as of March 2026. The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and individual incomes in the moderate range, placing them between the 29th and 38th percentiles.
Income distribution shows that the largest segment of the population, comprising 36.7% of residents (4,478 individuals), falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which is similar to the regional share of 32.8%. Housing affordability presents a significant challenge, with residents retaining only 83.9% of their income, ranking in the 39th percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Kurunjang - Toolern Vale had 3,875 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 94% detached houses and 0% apartments. 50% are owned with a mortgage, 23% rented and 27% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $321 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,517 a month. Rent absorbs 20.6% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.5%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The mix of housing in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale at the time of the latest Census consisted of 94.2% separate houses and 5.8% multi-unit or alternative structures, contrasting with the metropolitan Melbourne profile of 67.9% separate houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership rates in the suburb lagged behind the Melbourne average at 26.8%, with the remaining properties occupied by mortgage holders (50.4%) or tenants (22.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,517, which is lower than the metropolitan Melbourne average of $2,000, while median weekly rent was $321 compared to the Melbourne average of $390.
On a national level, mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are below the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Kurunjang - Toolern Vale counted 3,875 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.8 people each. 36% are couples with children, against 23% couples without children. 20% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.7 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 77.2%, consisting of couples with children at 36.3%, couples without children at 23.1%, and single-parent households at 16.4%. Non-family households account for 22.8% of the total, with lone person households representing 20.0% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.8 persons, exceeding the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
14.0% of adults in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale hold a university qualification, including 10.0% with a bachelor degree and 2.5% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 75% of areas nationally. A further 29.8% hold a vocational qualification. 4 schools serve the area, with 1,619 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 954 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment profiles indicate challenges, with university completion rates at 14.0%, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This gap highlights key areas for targeted educational support. Among degree holders, bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 2.5% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 40.1% of residents aged 15 and over possessing vocational qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 29.8%. A significant proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 31.2% of residents enrolled in an educational institution.
This is comprised of 11.9% in primary school, 8.8% in secondary school, and 3.7% in higher education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale reaches 37 stops on 8 routes, timetabled for about 1,700 services a week. The typical home sits about 440 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.8 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport infrastructure includes 37 active bus stops in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, operating across 8 separate routes that combine to provide 1,739 passenger trips each week. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents living an average of 438 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the residential nature of the suburb, the majority of workers commute to other areas, with private vehicles serving as the primary transport mode for 93% of commuters. Average vehicle ownership is 1.8 cars per household, which is higher than the regional average. In the 2021 Census, 17.6% of residents worked from home, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.
Bus services run at an average frequency of 248 trips per day across all routes, which corresponds to approximately 47 weekly trips for each stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
67.0% of residents in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 82% of areas nationally. 7.6% need daily assistance with core activities, and 49.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.3 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Assessments of mortality rates and chronic health conditions indicate notable challenges in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, with common ailments present in both younger and older cohorts, and private health insurance coverage levels sitting relatively low at roughly 50% of the population (~6,076 people). This compares to a rate of 56.7% across the Greater Melbourne area and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health concerns and asthma represent the most widespread medical diagnoses locally, affecting 9.7% and 9.6% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 67.0% of the population reported no chronic health conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne.
Chronic illness rates are elevated among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 13.4% of the population (1,633 people), which is lower than the Greater Melbourne figure of 15.0%. Health trends among local seniors are generally consistent with national averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is largely Australian-born, at 76.0% of residents, with 21.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (24.0%) and English (23.5%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in the area is high compared to most regional markets, with 24.0% of the population born outside of Australia and 21.8% speaking a language other than English in the home. Christianity is the primary religious affiliation, representing 53.4% of the population. The most pronounced demographic variance is in the Other category, which represents 1.9% of local residents compared to 2.3% in Greater Melbourne. Regarding parental country of birth, the three most common ancestral groups are Australian, representing 24.0% of the population (higher than the regional average of 18.4%), English at 23.5%, and Other at 11.3%.
Specific ethnic groups show distinct concentrations, with Maltese ancestry representing 6.3% of the local population (compared to 1.1% regionally), Samoan ancestry at 1.4% (compared to 0.3% regionally), and Serbian ancestry at 0.8% (compared to 0.4% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is 35, younger than 79% of areas nationally. 26.4% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The local median age of 35 years is slightly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national median of 38. The 5 - 14 age bracket is highly represented at 14.4% compared to metropolitan levels, while the 25 - 34 cohort is less common at 13.3%. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has risen from 3.3% to 4.2%, whereas the 25 to 34 demographic has declined from 14.4% to 13.3%. Projections for 2041 point to significant changes, with the 55 to 64 age group expected to grow by 45% (an increase of 653 individuals), rising from 1,453 to 2,107, while the 0 to 4 group is forecast to grow by 7% (an increase of 59 individuals).
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Kurunjang - Toolern Vale
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 9 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 43 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (11,632 at the 2021 Census → 12,202 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (213041576). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.