Kurunjang - Toolern Vale

Population growth drivers in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population was around 12,105 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 473 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,632. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 12,069 in June 2024 and additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 100 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 58.1% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Kurunjang - Toolern Vale expected to grow by 3,294 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 26.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has seen approximately 32 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 163 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved in FY-26 so far.

On average, each new home brings about one new resident per year over these five years, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer options while also allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $224,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing choices for buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has significantly lower building activity, with only 10% of the regional average per person. This limited supply generally supports stronger demand and higher values for established properties. This trend is also observed nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent development in the area has consisted entirely of detached dwellings, preserving its low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. As of now, there are an estimated 1093 people per dwelling approval in the area, indicating a quiet and low-activity development environment. Looking ahead, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is projected to gain 3258 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 43 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Cobblebank Train Stabling Facility, Outlook Ride Estate, Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs, and Penny Royal Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 7.5% in the past year. Employment growth was estimated at 5.5%.

As of September 2025, 6153 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.6%, which is 2.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census data, 17.6% of residents work from home. Major employment industries are construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical jobs have lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. AreaSearch analysis shows that over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 5.5%, while labour force and unemployment remained essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Kurunjang - Toolern Vale SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,044 and an average of $61,265. This is below the national average. Greater Melbourne, for comparison, had a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest approximately $58,503 (median) and $66,319 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale rank modestly between the 29th and 38th percentiles. Distribution data indicates that 36.7% of locals (4,442 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 income category, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, as per the latest Census evaluation, 94.2% of dwellings were houses while 5.8% comprised semi-detached units, apartments and other types. This differed from Melbourne metro's figures which stood at 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale was recorded at 26.8%, with mortgaged properties at 50.4% and rented units at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,517, significantly lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent median stood at $321 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.2% of all households, including 36.3% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 16.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 29.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 37 active transport stops operating within Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 1,739 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 438 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 17.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 248 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~6,028 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.7% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 67.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 13.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,594 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kurunjang-Toolern Vale, as per the census conducted on Tuesday 9 June 2016, exhibited higher cultural diversity than most local areas. The proportion of residents born overseas was 24.0%, with 21.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 53.4% of the population.

Notably, the 'Other' religious category had a slightly higher representation in Kurunjang-Toolern Vale at 1.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%. In terms of ancestry, Australian was the most represented group at 24.0%, significantly higher than the regional average of 18.4%. English ancestry followed closely at 23.5%, with 'Other' ancestry accounting for 11.3% of the population. Some ethnic groups were notably more prevalent in Kurunjang-Toolern Vale: Maltese at 6.3% (regional average 1.1%), Samoan at 1.4% (0.3%), and Serbian at 0.8% (0.4%).

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 14.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. However, the 25-34 cohort stands at 12.8%, lower compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.3% to 4.2%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 14.4% to 12.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 699 people (47%), rising from 1,471 to 2,171. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group grows modestly by 9%, adding 72 people.