Kurunjang - Toolern Vale
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population is approximately 12,064 as of August 2025. This marks an increase of 432 people, a 3.7% rise from the 2021 Census figure of 11,632. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 12,069 in June 2024 and validated new addresses since then. This results in a density ratio of 99 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 58.1% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is forecasted to experience significant population growth, with an expected increase of 3,294 persons by 2041. This reflects a total increase of 27.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has received approximately 32 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 163 homes. In FY-26 so far, four approvals have been recorded. On average, one person moves to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25.

This pace of new construction matches or exceeds demand, providing more buying options and enabling population growth that might surpass current projections. The average construction value of new properties is $701,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end dwellings. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has significantly lower construction activity (90.0% below regional average per person), which typically enhances demand and prices for existing properties. This activity also falls below national averages, suggesting maturity and potential planning constraints. All new constructions since FY-21 have been detached houses, preserving the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

As of FY-25, the estimated population per dwelling approval is 1093 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts project Kurunjang - Toolern Vale will gain 3,299 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply might not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 43 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are Cobblebank Train Stabling Facility, Outlook Ride Estate, Western Highway Melton Upgrades, and Penny Royal Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Kurunjang - Toolern Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 7.5% as of June 2025.

Employment growth in the area was estimated at 5.8% over the past year. There are 6,245 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.3%, which is 2.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is lower, at 61.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.8%, while labour force increased by a similar rate, leaving unemployment broadly unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a slight rise in unemployment to 5.1%. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year as of Sep-25, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7% compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's median income among taxpayers is $50,704. The average income was $57,700 in the same period. These figures are below the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761 during financial year 2022. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since then, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $55,830 (median) and $63,533 (average). According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale rank modestly, between the 29th and 39th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution data shows that 36.7% of locals (4,427 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, with only 83.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale stood at 26.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.4% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $321, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.2% of all households, including 36.3% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 16.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.8%, consisting of 20.0% lone person households and 2.8% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average, at 14.0% compared to 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common among residents with higher education qualifications, at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 40.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.3% and certificates 29.8%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.9% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,619 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. The area has two primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 37 active public transport stops in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. These comprise various bus routes totaling 2,875 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to these stops is moderate, with typical distances of 438 meters.

Daily service frequency averages 410 trips across all routes, equating to around 77 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Kurunjang - Toolern Vale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~5,899 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 67.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.7% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.8%, with 1,540 people falling into this category, compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kurunjang-Toolern Vale, surveyed in 2016, had a higher proportion of overseas-born residents at 24.0%, compared to the regional average. Similarly, it had a higher percentage speaking languages other than English at home, at 21.8%. Christianity was the dominant religion, with 53.4% of people identifying as such.

However, there was an overrepresentation in the 'Other' category, comprising 1.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (24.0%), English (23.5%), and Other (11.3%). Notably, Maltese residents were overrepresented at 6.3% versus the regional average of 5.1%. Samoan representation was also higher at 1.4%, compared to 1.0%. Serbian representation stood out at 0.8%, matching the regional average.

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The percentage of residents aged 5-14 stands at 14.8%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate. Conversely, the 25-34 age group comprises 13.1% of Kurunjang - Toolern Vale's population, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 3.3% to 3.9% of the population. During this period, the 25 to 34 age cohort has decreased from 14.4% to 13.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes for Kurunjang - Toolern Vale. The 55-64 age group is forecasted to rise substantially by 734 people (51%) from 1,436 to 2,171. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age cohort is projected to grow by a modest 6%, adding 51 people.