Thornhill Park

Thornhill Park lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of the Thornhill Park statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 6,577 people. This reflects an increase of 3,511 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,066 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 4,271 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 1,363 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 688 persons per square kilometer. Thornhill Park's growth of 114.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.7%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 9,736 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 130.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Thornhill Park was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Thornhill Park has received approximately 353 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,766 homes. As of FY26147 approvals have been recorded. Each year, an average of two new residents is associated with each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25. The average construction cost value for new homes over this period is $373,000.

In FY26, commercial approvals amount to $91.1 million. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornhill Park has seen 376.0% more new home approvals per person. Building activity in recent years has slowed, with 89.0% standalone homes and 11.0% townhouses or apartments approved. Approximately 13 people are associated with each dwelling approval. AreaSearch estimates Thornhill Park's population to grow by 8,561 residents by 2041.

Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating further population growth.

Thornhill Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twenty projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Bridgefield Estate, Atherstone - Stage 38 and future stages, Thornhill Park Estate, Cobblebank Metropolitan Activity Centre & Future Retail Precinct, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Thornhill Park has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Thornhill Park has a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation. The area's unemployment rate is 6.6% and it has seen an estimated employment growth of 5.2% over the past year, as per AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 3,017 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 1.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation stands at 74.1%, surpassing Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 5.2% while labour force grew by 7.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Providing broader context, state-level data from 25-Nov shows that Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year (adding 41,950 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. This compares to a national unemployment rate of 4.3%, with Victoria's employment growth outpacing the national average of 0.14%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornhill Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest data released for financial year ended June 2023 shows median income among taxpayers in Thornhill Park suburb is $55,750 with an average of $63,453. This is below national averages. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on 8.25% growth since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates for Thornhill Park are approximately $60,349 (median) and $68,688 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census figures from 2021, incomes in Thornhill Park cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income distribution data shows that 49.5% of locals fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this category. High housing costs consume 20.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally. Thornhill Park's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Thornhill Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornhill Park's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornhill Park was at 4.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 70.0% and rented ones at 25.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,800. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Thornhill Park's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Thornhill Park features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 83.2% of all households, including 46.2% that are couples with children, 25.0% that are couples without children, and 10.7% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.8%, with lone person households at 14.4% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Thornhill Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Thornhill Park's residents aged 15 and above have a higher proportion of university qualifications than the broader area, with 35.0% compared to 24.3%. This educational advantage is driven by bachelor degrees (24.5%), postgraduate qualifications (8.2%), and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.8% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (20.3%). Educational participation is notably high in Thornhill Park, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising primary education (10.5%), secondary education (4.9%), and tertiary education (4.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 4.9% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornhill Park has three operational public transport stops, offering a combination of train and bus services. Six different routes serve these stops, collectively facilitating 1,281 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents residing an average of 1827 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency averages 183 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 427 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornhill Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Thornhill Park's health outcomes show notable results across all age groups, with both younger and older residents experiencing a low prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has approximately 52% private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Residents most commonly report asthma (6.8%) and mental health issues (4.9%), while 82.8% claim to have no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. The area has a smaller proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (3.1%, or 203 people) compared to Greater Melbourne (10.1%). Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to their particular strength.

Thornhill Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornhill Park's population is highly diverse, with 50.5% born overseas and 57.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 45.7%. The 'Other' religious category is overrepresented at 11.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 29.0%, above the regional average of 18.2%. Australian ancestry is lower than average at 12.1%, while Indian is higher at 12.0%. Some ethnic groups are notably divergent: Filipino at 8.8% (vs 3.4%), Maltese at 3.7% (vs 5.1%), and Serbian at 1.0% (vs 0.8%).

Thornhill Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Thornhill Park has a median age of 30 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornhill Park has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (24.5%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (2%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is above the national average of 14.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 5-14 age group has increased from 12.9% to 17.1%, while the 35-44 cohort has risen from 18.7% to 22.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 30.3% to 24.5%. Demographic modeling indicates that Thornhill Park's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort projected to expand substantially, increasing by 1,781 people (123%) from 1,453 to 3,235.