Thornhill Park

Thornhill Park lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Thornhill Park is around 6,679. This figure represents a significant increase from the 3,066 people recorded in the 2021 Census, marking an 117.8% growth. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2025 and validated new addresses since the Census date, is 6,170. This equates to a density ratio of 698 persons per square kilometer, comparable with averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Thornhill Park's population growth exceeded both state (9.3%) and national averages between 2021 and May 2026. Interstate migration was the primary driver, contributing approximately 85% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Thornhill Park is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas over the period from 2026 to 2041. The area's population is projected to increase by 18,731 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 268.7% over the 16-year span.

The level of residential development activity in Thornhill Park was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Thornhill Park has received approximately 347 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,737 homes. As of FY26215 approvals have been recorded. The average new resident per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 was 1.4, suggesting a balanced supply-demand market. However, this figure has moderated to 0.8 over the past two financial years, indicating an improving balance. New homes are being built at an expected construction cost of $373,000 each.

Additionally, $91.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered in FY26, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornhill Park has seen 300% more new home approvals per person, offering ample choice for buyers despite a recent slowdown in building activity. This high level of developer confidence is also evident when compared nationally. The area's building activity consists of 90% standalone homes and 10% townhouses or apartments, maintaining its traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With around 11 people per dwelling approval, Thornhill Park exhibits growth area characteristics.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 17,946 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with these projections despite potential increased competition among buyers as the population expands.

Thornhill Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones are Thornhill Park Estate, Opalia Estate, Weir Views, Monument Estate, and Bridgefield Estate. The following details those expected to have the most relevance.

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Thornhill Park has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Thornhill Park had an unemployment rate of 5.8% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.8%. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate was 6.8%, which is 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Thornhill Park was 77.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

According to Census responses, 20.3% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehaging with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 5%.

Employment opportunities appeared limited locally as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 4.8% while labour force grew by 6.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornhill Park's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2023, Thornhill Park's median income among taxpayers was $55,750, with an average of $63,453. This was below the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year ended 30 June 2023, current estimates for Thornhill Park's median income would be approximately $61,113 and the average around $69,557 as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Thornhill Park clustered around the 70th percentile nationally. Income distribution data showed that 49.5% of locals (3,306 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupied this bracket. High housing costs consumed 20.5% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Thornhill Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Thornhill Park's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornhill Park was at 4.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 70.0% and rented ones at 25.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Melbourne's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $380, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Thornhill Park's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Thornhill Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.2% of all households, including 46.2% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.8%, with lone person households at 14.4% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Thornhill Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Thornhill Park's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 35.0% have university qualifications, compared to the SA3 area average of 24.3%. This high level of educational attainment positions Thornhill Park favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%).

Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 14.5% and certificates for 20.3%. Educational participation is notably high in Thornhill Park, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 4.9% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornhill Park has four active transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by six routes, collectively facilitating 1,281 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to public transport is limited, with an average distance of 1827 meters to the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 90%, while train usage stands at 8%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 20.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 183 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 320 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornhill Park's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Thornhill Park based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,469 people), slightly lagging the average SA2 area rate of 56.7%. The most common medical conditions were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.8 and 4.9% of residents respectively. 82.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 6.7% of residents aged 65 and over (447 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Thornhill Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornhill Park has a population where 50.5% were born overseas, with 57.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 45.7%. The 'Other' religious category comprises 11.7%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 29.0%, followed by Australian at 12.1% and Indian at 12.0%. Thornhill Park has notably higher percentages of Filipino (8.8%), Maltese (3.7%), and Serbian (1.0%) residents compared to regional averages.

Thornhill Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Thornhill Park's median age is 34 years, lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornhill Park has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (19.2%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.8%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, residents have aged on average by 4.5 years, with the median age rising from 29 to 34 years. Specifically, the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has increased from 6.8% to 16.9%, while those aged 5-14 rose from 12.9% to 19.2%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 decreased from 30.3% to 15.8%, and the 0-4 age group dropped from 13.9% to 6.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Thornhill Park, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age cohort (346%), adding 3,909 residents to reach a total of 5,038.