Thornhill Park

Thornhill Park lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of Thornhill Park, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since Nov 2025, is around 6,419. This marks a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,066 people, reflecting an overall growth of 3,353 individuals (109.4%). The estimated resident population of 5,131 in Jun 2024, combined with 1,363 validated new addresses since the Census date, contributed to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 671 persons per square kilometer. Thornhill Park's growth rate exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, driven primarily by interstate migration (approximately 85%). AreaSearch projects that Thornhill Park will experience exceptional growth over the period from 2022 to 2041, with an expected increase of 9,931 persons, reflecting a total increase of 138.9% based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas, is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 9,931 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting reflecting an increase of 138.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Thornhill Park was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Thornhill Park has seen approximately 357 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 1,785 homes. As of FY26105 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25 has resulted in an average of 2 new residents per year. The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $373,000, below the regional average.

In FY26, $90.8 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornhill Park has seen 390.0% more new home approvals per person. The area maintains a traditional low-density character with 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% townhouses or apartments. Around 18 people are expected per dwelling approval, indicating growth characteristics. By 2041, Thornhill Park is projected to grow by 8,914 residents.

Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Thornhill Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 21 projects that are expected to impact the area significantly due to changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Among these key projects are Bridgefield Estate, Atherstone - Stage 38 & Future Stages, Thornhill Park Estate, and Cobblebank Metropolitan Activity Centre & Future Retail Precinct. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Thornhill Park has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Thornhill Park's workforce is well-educated with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 6.6% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment grew by 3.4% in the same period. As of June 2025, 2723 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 6.6%, which is 2.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was 74.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction.

The area had a particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical showed lower representation at 5.0% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Over a 12-month period ending unspecified, employment increased by 3.4% alongside labour force increasing by 5.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornhill Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Thornhill Park's median income among taxpayers is $55,750, with an average of $63,453. This is below the national average. Comparing to Greater Melbourne, Thornhill Park has a lower median ($55,750 vs $54,892) and a lower average ($63,453 vs $73,761). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Thornhill Park are approximately $62,529 (median) and $71,169 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Thornhill Park cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income distribution data shows that 49.5% of locals (3,177 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 20.5% of income in Thornhill Park. Despite strong earnings, disposable income ranks at the 59th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Thornhill Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Thornhill Park, as per the latest Census, 97.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 2.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornhill Park was at 45%, with mortgaged dwellings at 70% and rented ones at 25.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,800 but lower than the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Thornhill Park was $380, higher than Melbourne metro's $351 and the national figure of $375.

Thornhill Park features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 83.2% of all households, consisting of 46.2% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.8%, with lone person households at 14.4% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Thornhill Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Thornhill Park's educational attainment exceeds broader benchmarks, with 35% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications compared to 24.3% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 34.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (20.3%). Educational participation is high at 28.4%, comprising primary education (10.5%), secondary education (4.9%), and tertiary education (4.2%).

Thornhill Park Primary School serves the area with an enrollment of 572 students, demonstrating typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1018). It focuses exclusively on primary education; secondary options are available in nearby areas. The area has 8.9 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 16.2.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornhill Park has four active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by twelve different routes, collectively facilitating 2164 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically residing 1827 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 309 trips per day, equating to approximately 541 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornhill Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Thornhill Park's health outcomes show excellent results across all age groups.

Both younger and older residents have a low prevalence of common health conditions. The area has a higher rate of private health cover at approximately 52% compared to the average SA2 area (~3,334 people). Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.8 and 4.9% of residents respectively. 82.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne. Thornhill Park has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 3.1% (198 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Thornhill Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornhill Park's population is highly diverse, with 50.5% born overseas and 57.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, followed by Other religions which are overrepresented at 11.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%. In terms of ancestry, Other groups comprise 29.0%, higher than the regional average of 18.2%.

Australian ancestry stands at 12.1%, lower than the regional average of 18.6%. Indian ancestry is notably high at 12.0%, above the regional average of 5.9%. Other ethnic groups with significant representation include Filipino (8.8% vs regional 3.4%), Maltese (3.7% vs 5.1%), and Serbian (1.0% vs 0.8%).

Thornhill Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 30 years, Thornhill Park's median age is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and lower than the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornhill Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (24.5%) but fewer aged 65-74 (2%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is above the national average of 14.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 5-14 age group has increased from 12.9% to 17.1%, while the 35-44 cohort has risen from 18.7% to 22.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 30.3% to 24.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Thornhill Park's age profile. The 35-44 age cohort is projected to grow substantially, increasing by 1,845 people (130%) from 1,418 to 3,264.