Rockbank

Rockbank lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of Rockbank, based on ABS updates and AreaSearch validation, is estimated at 5,112 as of Nov 2025. This shows a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,583 people, representing a growth of 2,529 individuals (97.9%). The current population estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population calculation of 4,233, derived from ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,177 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rockbank's growth since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a notable growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends predict exceptional growth, placing Rockbank in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, the suburb is expected to expand by 8,953 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 164.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Rockbank was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Rockbank recorded around 154 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 774 homes. So far in FY-26, 74 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.9 new residents per year were associated with every home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests demand significantly exceeds supply, which typically results in price growth and increased buyer competition.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $373,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In this financial year, $81.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rockbank has 163.0% more new home approvals per person, creating greater choice for buyers. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. The area's suburban nature is preserved with 85.0% detached dwellings and 15.0% attached dwellings being built.

Rockbank reflects a developing area, with around 23 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate Rockbank will gain 8,425 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Rockbank has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. Six projects identified by AreaSearch may affect the area. Notable ones are Melton Line Upgrade, Woodlea Estate, Woodlea Estate, and Willow Springs. Details of most relevant projects follow.

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Employment conditions in Rockbank remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Rockbank's workforce is well-educated with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 5.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.9%.

As of June 2025, 2,397 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation stands at 69.5%, above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and construction. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 2.8 times the regional level.

Education & training has limited presence at 5.1% compared to 9.2% regionally. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 3.9%, labour force by 5.4%, raising unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rockbank's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. Rockbank's median income among taxpayers was $51,444, with an average of $58,552. Nationally, these figures were lower than average. Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Rockbank would be approximately $57,700 (median) and $65,672 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Rockbank cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 43.2% of Rockbank's population falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 49th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Rockbank is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Rockbank's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rockbank was at 15.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.6% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, similar to Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $360 compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Rockbank's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rockbank has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.3% of all households, including 37.1% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.7%, with lone person households at 25.8% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

The educational profile of Rockbank exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 31.3% among residents aged 15+, higher than the SA3 average of 24.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 15.2% and certificates at 19.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education. Rockbank Primary School serves the local community, enrolling 486 students as of a recent date. The school has an ICSEA score of 1028, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. There is one primary school in the area, with secondary options available nearby. There are 9.5 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 16.2, suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rockbank has six active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route in total, facilitating 1,283 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these stops is limited, with residents typically residing 614 meters away from the nearest stop.

The service frequency averages 183 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 213 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rockbank's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Rockbank's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger age groups having particularly low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately half (50%) of Rockbank's total population (~2,557 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.8% and 5.9% of residents respectively. A higher proportion of Rockbank residents (79.9%) report no medical ailments than Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. Only 6.1% of Rockbank's population is aged 65 and over (311 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. However, health outcomes among seniors in Rockbank require more attention compared to the broader population.

Rockbank is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rockbank's population shows high cultural diversity, with 47.9% born overseas and 54.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 41.1%. Notably, the 'Other' category makes up 14.5%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' stands at 28.7%, substantially higher than the regional average of 18.2%. Indian ancestry is also high at 13.5%, compared to the regional average of 5.9%. Conversely, Australian ancestry is lower at 13.0%, below the regional average of 18.6%. Other notable divergences include Maltese (3.9% vs 5.1%), Croatian (1.4% vs 1.4%), and Samoan (1.3% vs 1.0%).

Rockbank hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Rockbank has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and significantly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rockbank has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (20.9%), but fewer residents aged 75-84 (1.2%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has grown from 11.9% to 16.1%, while those aged 35 to 44 have increased from 17.1% to 20.9%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 26.1% to 20.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Rockbank's age profile, with the 45-54 age cohort expected to expand substantially by 1,558 people (290%), growing from 536 to 2,095 residents.