Tarneit - North

Tarneit - North lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Tarneit - North's population was around 16,725 as of May 2026. This reflected an increase of 9,528 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,197 people. The growth was inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 16,453 in June 2025 and an additional 3,334 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 1,165 persons per square kilometer, which was relatively inline with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Tarneit - North's growth rate of 132.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state average (9.3%) and national average, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts and exceptional growth, Tarneit - North is predicted to grow by 25,009 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 144.5% in total over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit - North was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit - North averaged approximately 982 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,910 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 561 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed was observed. The average construction value for new dwellings in the area is $280,000.

In FY-26, there have been $1.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating a residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - North records 605.0% more construction activity per person. New development consists of 93.0% detached houses and 7.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban nature with approximately 12 people per dwelling approval. Future projections estimate an addition of 24,164 residents by 2041 in Tarneit - North, suggesting adequate housing supply to meet demand based on current construction levels.

Future projections show Tarneit - North adding 24,164 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tarneit - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Thirty-three infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Tarneit North Community Precinct, Wyndham Regional Stadium Precinct, Truganina Employment Area Precinct Structure Plan, and Riverdale Precinct Structure Plan. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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Tarneit - North ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Tarneit - North has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate is 3.0% and there was an estimated employment growth of 3.8% in the past year as of December 2025. There are 7,678 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 1.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 69.9%. According to Census responses, 23.7% of residents work from home. Key industries include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 3.3 times the regional level.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8% and labour force grew by 5.1%, resulting in a rise in unemployment by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2023 shows that Tarneit - North SA2 has an income median of $59,725 and average income of $68,968. This is higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By March 2026, based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since June 30, 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $65,471 (median) and $75,603 (average). Tarneit - North's household, family and personal incomes cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The largest income segment is 48.6% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly, with 8,128 residents in this bracket. This aligns with the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 19.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 72nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Tarneit - North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - North was at 3.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 64.8% and rented ones at 31.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,065, above Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $391, similar to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tarneit - North's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,065 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $391 against the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - North features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.6% of all households, including 60.2% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 7.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.4%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households making up 4.6%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Tarneit - North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Tarneit - North is notably high, with 49.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data point. This compares favourably to national figures of 30.4% and regional SA4 benchmarks of 32.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 28.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 18.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 15.0% and certificates for 12.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 14.2% in primary education, 5.9% in tertiary education, and 4.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit - North has 21 active public transport stops operating within it, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 11 individual routes, collectively facilitating 4,876 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 941 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 81%, while train accounts for 14%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 23.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 696 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 232 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - North's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Tarneit - North, based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 53% of the total population (~8,914 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most common conditions are asthma (3.3%) and diabetes (2.8%). 90.7% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than the 72.6% average for Greater Melbourne. Only 2.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (341 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

Tarneit - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-North, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from 2016, has a population that is 68.9% born overseas and 79.5% speaking languages other than English at home. The predominant religion in Tarneit-North is Hinduism, practiced by 31.1% of its residents, significantly higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.4%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (39.1%), Indian (29.7%), and English (7.3%).

These figures are substantially higher or notably lower compared to regional averages: Other (14.6%), Indian (4.2%), and English (20.1%). Notably, Samoan (2.2%) Filipino (3.2%), and Sri Lankan (0.7%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Tarneit-North compared to regional figures of 0.3%, 1.3%, and 0.8% respectively.

Tarneit - North hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit-North's median age is 30, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit-North has a higher proportion of 35-44 year-olds (27.4%) but fewer 55-64 year-olds (3%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, demographic aging is evident with the median age increasing from 29 to 30 years. Notable shifts include the 35-44 age group growing from 22.9% to 27.4%, and the 5-14 cohort increasing from 16.2% to 20.2%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 28.3% to 18.9%, and the 0-4 group dropped from 13.5% to 11.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Tarneit-North, with the strongest projected growth in the 35-44 cohort, expected to grow by 123%, adding 5,634 residents to reach a total of 10,220.