Tarneit - North

Tarneit - North lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Tarneit - North's population was around 17,283 as of Feb 2026. This reflected an increase of 10,086 people from the 2021 Census figure of 7,197. The change was inferred from ABS figures: an estimated resident population of 13,592 in June 2024 and an additional 3,157 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 1,204 persons per square kilometer. Tarneit - North's growth rate of 140.1% since the 2021 census exceeded national (9.9%) and state averages, making it a growth leader regionally. Interstate migration contributed approximately 81.4% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Tarneit - North is expected to grow exceptionally, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By 2041, the area is projected to have grown by 26,757 persons, reflecting a total increase of 132.8% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit - North was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit - North averaged approximately 982 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,910 homes. As of FY-26440 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were noted between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction value of new dwellings was $280,000.

In FY-26, there have been $1.7 million in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - North recorded 772.0% more construction activity per person as of the latest data. New development consists of 93.0% detached houses and 7.0% attached dwellings. The location has approximately 12 people per dwelling approval. Future projections estimate an addition of 22,959 residents by 2041.

Future projections show Tarneit - North adding 22,959 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tarneit - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Tarneit North Community Precinct, Wyndham Regional Stadium Precinct, Truganina Employment Precinct, and Riverdale Precinct Structure Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Tarneit - North performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Tarneit - North has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 2.7%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 7.4%.

As of September 2025, 7,710 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.0% and workforce participation at 85.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Around 23.7% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include transport, postal & warehousing (strongly specialized with an employment share 3.3 times the regional level), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Education & training has limited presence at 4.4% compared to 9.2% regionally.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 7.4%, labour force grew by 8.3%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows that Tarneit - North SA2 had incomes above the national average. The median income was $59,725 and the average was $68,968. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $64,652 (median) and $74,658 (average). Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Tarneit - North are around the 74th percentile nationally. The largest income segment comprises 48.6% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 19.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 72nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Tarneit - North's dwellings were predominantly houses at 99.2%, with other types such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings making up the remaining 0.8% in the latest Census. This is compared to Melbourne metro's composition of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - North stood at 3.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 64.8% and rented ones at 31.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,065, above Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Tarneit - North was $391, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tarneit - North's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - North features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.6% of all households, including 60.2% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 7.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.4%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households making up 4.6% of the total. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Tarneit - North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Tarneit - North has a notably high educational attainment among residents aged 15 and above, with 49.7% holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's average of 32.0%. The area's educational advantage is reflected in its strong showing for bachelor degrees (28.4%), postgraduate qualifications (18.9%), and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (15.0%) and certificates (12.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (14.2%), tertiary education (5.9%), and secondary education (4.7%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit - North has 21 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. Eleven individual routes service these stops, collectively facilitating 4,876 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited in the area, with residents typically residing 941 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential region, most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode of transportation at 81%. Train usage accounts for 14% of commutes.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 23.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 696 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 232 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - North's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment shows Tarneit - North has excellent health outcomes based on mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 53% (9,211 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 56.7%. Asthma and diabetes are the most common medical conditions, affecting 3.3 and 2.8% of residents respectively. About 90.7% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Tarneit - North has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 2.2% (378 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in the area are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Tarneit - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-North, as of the 2016 Census, has a population where 68.9% were born overseas, with 79.5% speaking languages other than English at home. The dominant religion is Hinduism, practiced by 31.1%, compared to 4.4% in Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (39.1%), Indian (29.7%), and English (7.3%).

These figures differ significantly from regional averages: Other (14.6%), Indian (4.2%), and English (20.1%). Notable differences also exist for Samoan (2.2% vs 0.3%), Filipino (3.2% vs 1.3%), and Sri Lankan (0.7% vs 0.8%) groups in Tarneit-North compared to regional figures.

Tarneit - North hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 30 years, Tarneit - North's median age is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and lower than the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - North has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (27.7%), but fewer residents aged 55-64 (3.2%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 22.9% to 27.7%, while the age group 5 to 14 has grown from 16.2% to 20.9%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 28.3% to 18.6%, and the age group 0 to 4 has dropped from 13.5% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Tarneit - North's age profile, with the 35 to 44 age cohort expected to expand substantially by 5,348 people (112%), growing from 4,782 to 10,131.