Tarneit - North

Tarneit - North lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Tarneit - North's population is approximately 15,513 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 8,316 people, an increase of 115.5% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,197. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,630 in June 2024 and an additional 3,123 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,081 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Tarneit - North's growth rate exceeds the national average (8.9%) and the state average, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 81.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all factors including natural growth and overseas migration were positive contributors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, exceptional growth is projected, placing Tarneit - North in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. The area is expected to grow by 26,757 persons over this period, reflecting an increase of 159.4% in total population over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit - North was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit - North has received approximately 982 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 4,910 homes were approved, with another 395 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.9 new residents have been added per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

The market appears balanced between supply and demand, indicating stable conditions. The average construction cost of new properties is around $280,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $1.7 million, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - North has seen 772.0% more development activity per person. This high level of activity is significantly above the national average, indicating strong developer interest in the area.

Recent construction consists mostly of standalone homes (93.0%) with a smaller portion of medium and high-density housing (7.0%), maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes. There are approximately 12 people per dwelling approval in Tarneit - North, suggesting an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is projected to grow by 24,729 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tarneit - North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Tarneit North Community Precinct, Wyndham Regional Stadium Precinct, Truganina Employment Precinct, and Riverdale Precinct Structure Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Tarneit - North performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Tarneit - North has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.7%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 7.4%. As of September 2025, 7,710 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.0% below Greater Melbourne's and a workforce participation rate of 73.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with levels at 3.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, education & training has lower representation at 4.4% versus the regional average of 9.2%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 7.4% and labour force by 8.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Tarneit - North SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $58,026 and an average of $67,060 in the financial year 2022. This was slightly above national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $65,082 (median) and $75,214 (average). Census 2021 income data showed Tarneit - North's household, family, and personal incomes clustered around the 74th percentile nationally. Income distribution indicated that 48.6% of the population fell within the $1,500-$2,999 range, consistent with broader regional trends at 32.8%. High housing costs consumed 19.7% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 72nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - North was at 3.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 64.8% and rented ones at 31.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,065, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,924. Median weekly rent in Tarneit - North was $391, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Tarneit - North features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.6% of all households, including 60.2% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 7.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.4%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households at 4.6%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit - North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Tarneit - North significantly exceeds broader benchmarks, with 49.7% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications compared to the national average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's average of 32.0%. This notable educational advantage positions the area favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 28.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 27.0% of residents aged 15 years and over holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (15.0%) and certificates (12.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.2% in primary education, 5.9% in tertiary education, and 4.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 19 active transport stops operating within Tarneit - North, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 13 individual routes, collectively facilitating 11,373 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically situated 941 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 1,624 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 598 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - North's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Tarneit - North shows excellent health outcomes, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Its private health cover rate stands at approximately 52%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~8,128 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 3.3% and 2.8% of residents respectively. Notably, 90.7% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 79.2% in Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, the area has 2.0% of residents aged 65 and over (318 people), which is lower than the 8.3% recorded in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong and largely align with the overall population's health profile.

Tarneit - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-North, as per the 2016 Census, has a population where 68.9% were born overseas. At home, 79.5% speak languages other than English. Hinduism is the predominant religion in Tarneit-North, with 31.1%, compared to Melbourne's 15.7%.

In ancestry, 'Other' comprises 39.1%, Indian 29.7%, and English 7.3%, differing significantly from regional averages of 23.4%, 14.7%, and 14.2% respectively. Notable differences exist in Samoan (Tarneit-North: 2.2%; Regional: 1.0%), Filipino (Tarneit-North: 3.2%; Regional: 3.1%), and Sri Lankan (Tarneit-North: 0.7%; Regional: 0.6%) populations.

Tarneit - North hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit - North's median age at 30 years is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - North has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (27.0%) but fewer aged 55-64 (3.1%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. Post-2021 Census data reveals that the age group 5 to 14 has grown from 16.2% to 20.6%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 22.9% to 27.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group declined from 28.3% to 20.1%, and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 13.5% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Tarneit - North's age profile, with the 35 to 44 age cohort expected to expand substantially by 5,936 people (142%), growing from 4,194 to 10,131.