Tarneit - North
Statistical Area - sa2

Tarneit - North lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Tarneit - North's population is approximately 15,318 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents a growth of 8,121 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,197. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 13,680 in June 2024 and an additional 3,051 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 1,067 persons per square kilometer. Tarneit - North's growth rate of 112.8% since the 2021 Census exceeds both national (8.6%) and state averages. Interstate migration contributed approximately 81.4% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Tarneit - North is expected to grow exceptionally, ranking in the top 10 percent nationally. By 2041, the area's population is projected to reach 26,757 persons, reflecting a total increase of 162.7% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit - North was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit - North has seen approximately 514 dwellings granted development approval annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides this data on a financial year basis, showing 2,570 homes approved over the past five years from FY-20 to FY-25, with 167 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.9 new residents have arrived per new home each year over these five years, suggesting a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $348,000, which is lower than regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $1.7 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - North has 12993.0% more development activity per capita, offering ample choice for buyers and demonstrating strong developer confidence in the location. New developments consist of 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes suited to space-seeking buyers. With around 12 people moving in per approval, Tarneit - North is considered a developing area. Future projections estimate that Tarneit - North will add approximately 24,924 residents by 2041.

Development appears to be keeping pace with projected growth, although increasing competition among buyers can be expected as the population expands.

Tarneit - North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Tarneit North Community Precinct, Truganina Employment Area Precinct, Wyndham Stadium Precinct, and Marigold Estate. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Tarneit - North ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Tarneit - North has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

In the year to June 2025, employment grew by 4.8% while unemployment rose by 0.8 percentage points. Key industries of employment are transport, postal & warehousing (3.3 times the regional level), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Education & training employs only 4.4% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.2%. The area has limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data.

State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts suggest employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years in Tarneit - North, based on industry-specific projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Tarneit - North's median income among taxpayers is $58,026 with an average of $67,060. This is slightly above the national average and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $63,892 (median) and $73,840 (average) as of March 2025. Census data reveals household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Tarneit - North, between the 72nd and 78th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 48.6% of locals (7,444 people) in the $1,500 to $2,999 category, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 19.7% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 73rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - North's dwelling structure in its latest Census evaluation showed 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - North was at 3.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 64.8% and rented ones at 31.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,065, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,924. Median weekly rent in Tarneit - North was $391, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Tarneit - North's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,065 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $391 against the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - North features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.6% of all households, consisting of couples with children (60.2%), couples without children (18.3%), and single parent families (7%). Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.4%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households making up 4.6%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit - North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Tarneit - North's educational attainment significantly exceeds national and regional averages. Among residents aged 15+, 49.7% have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.0% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 28.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 27.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 15.0% and certificates for 12.0%.

Educational participation is high, at 37.6%, including 14.2% in primary education, 5.9% in tertiary education, and 4.7% pursuing secondary education. The five schools in Tarneit - North have a combined enrollment of 752 students. This area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1064). It includes three primary and two K-12 schools. School capacity is limited, with only 5.2 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.5, leading many families to seek schooling in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 19 active transport stops operating within Tarneit - North. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. They are served by 13 individual routes, collectively providing 11,373 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 941 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1624 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 598 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - North's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Tarneit - North shows excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has approximately 52% private health cover (~8,026 people), which is slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Asthma and diabetes are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 3.3% and 2.8% of residents respectively. Around 90.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 79.2% in Greater Melbourne. Only 2.0% of Tarneit - North's population is aged 65 and over (314 people), lower than the 8.3% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong, closely matching those of the general population.

Tarneit - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-North, as per the 2016 Census, has a population where 68.9% were born overseas and 79.5% speak a language other than English at home. The dominant religion is Hinduism, practiced by 31.1%. This is higher compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (39.1%), Indian (29.7%), and English (7.3%). These figures vary significantly from regional averages: Other (23.4%), Indian (14.7%), and English (14.2%). Additionally, certain ethnic groups have notable differences in representation: Samoan at 2.2% (regional average is 1.0%), Filipino at 3.2% (3.1%), and Sri Lankan at 0.7% (0.6%).

Tarneit - North hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit - North's median age at 30 years is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - North has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (27.0%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (3.1%). This 35-44 concentration is above the national average of 14.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 5 to 14 age group grew from 16.2% to 20.6%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 22.9% to 27.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 28.3% to 20.1%, and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 13.5% to 11.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Tarneit - North's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 35 to 44 age cohort projected to expand substantially, increasing by 5,989 people (145%) from 4,141 to 10,131.