Tarneit - Central
Statistical Area - sa2

Tarneit - Central lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit - Central's population was approximately 29,672 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,556 people (5.5%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 28,116. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 29,462 in June 2024 and an additional 161 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,727 persons per square kilometer, placing Tarneit - Central in the upper quartile compared to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Tarneit - Central exhibited resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, outperforming its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate exceptional growth, placing Tarneit - Central in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The area is expected to grow by 12,718 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 42.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Tarneit - Central when compared nationally

Tarneit - Central has averaged approximately 113 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 565 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. Six approvals have been recorded so far in FY26. On average, 2.8 new residents per year have been associated with each dwelling over these five years, reflecting strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $351,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $656,000, suggesting a predominantly residential focus in the area. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - Central shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 75.0% fewer approvals per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. New building activity has shown a mix of detached houses (57.0%) and medium to high-density housing (43.0%), indicating an expanding range of medium-density options that cater to different price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives.

This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (89.0%). The location currently has approximately 1529 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Looking ahead, Tarneit - Central is projected to grow by 12,508 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tarneit - Central has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 27 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include West Tarneit Station, Harlow Tarneit, The Grove Tarneit, and Tarneit Indoor Sports Facility. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Tarneit - Central shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Tarneit - Central has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.2%. As of June 2025, 16,981 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.5% and workforce participation at 68.8%. Leading industries include transport, postal & warehousing (employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. However, education & training shows lower representation at 6.2% compared to the regional average of 9.2%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2%, labour force by 5.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest Tarneit - Central's employment could increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2022 for financial year 2022, Tarneit - Central had a median income among taxpayers of $51,620 with the average level standing at $59,656. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $56,839 (median) and $65,687 (average) as of March 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 76th percentile ($2,164 weekly), while personal income sits at the 55th percentile. Looking at income distribution, 44.1% of the population (13,085 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.0% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 75th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit - Central is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - Central's dwellings were 88.8% houses and 11.3% other types at the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% others. Home ownership was 11.7%, with mortgages at 56.9% and rentals at 31.4%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $1,900, below the Melbourne metro average of $1,924. Median weekly rents were $380, higher than Melbourne's $370 but lower than the national figure of $395. Nationally, Tarneit - Central's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863.

Tarneit - Central features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.9% of all households, including 60.5% couples with children, 15.8% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.1%, with lone person households at 9.9% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 3.5 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit - Central shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Tarneit - Central is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. 42.5% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.0% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 13.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 40.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education. There are 8 schools operating within Tarneit - Central, educating approximately 7,047 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1042) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 2 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (23.8 places per 100 residents vs 18.4 regionally), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit Central has 79 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 5,234 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to public transport is considered good, with residents on average being located 207 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there is an average of 747 trips per day, which equates to approximately 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - Central's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Tarneit - Central shows excellent health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions across both young and elderly residents. Around half of the population (approximately 14,687 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and diabetes are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 5.3% and 4.1% respectively. About 84.5% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 79.2%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 6.5% (1,937 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 8.3%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Tarneit - Central is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-Central has a culturally diverse population, with 59.6% born overseas and 67.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 31.8% of Tarneit-Central's population. Notably, 14.5% identify as 'Other', higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 7.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (31.2%), Indian (24.8%), and Australian (9.4%). Some ethnic groups show significant disparities: Filipino is at 4.1%, Samoan at 1.4%, and Sri Lankan at 0.9% compared to regional averages of 3.1%, 1.0%, and 0.6% respectively.

Tarneit - Central hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit - Central has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - Central has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (6.1%). This 5-14 concentration is notably higher than the national average of 12.2%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 45 to 54 has increased from 9.7% to 11.0%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 17.9% to 16.2% and the 35 to 44 group has dropped from 21.7% to 20.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Tarneit - Central's age profile will change significantly, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to increase by 2,529 people (78%), growing from 3,260 to 5,790.