Tarneit - Central
Statistical Area - sa2

Tarneit - Central lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit - Central's population is 29,668 as of November 2025. This shows an increase of 1,552 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 28,116. The change is inferred from ABS estimates of 29,462 in June 2024 and 160 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,727 persons per square kilometer, placing Tarneit - Central in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. Over the past decade, Tarneit - Central has grown at a compound annual rate of 3.2%, outperforming its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.2% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs Victorian Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate exceptional growth in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch, with Tarneit - Central expected to grow by 12,718 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 42.2% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Tarneit - Central when compared nationally

Tarneit - Central averaged approximately 113 new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY2021 and FY2025, a total of 565 homes were approved, with an additional 19 approved in FY2026 as of the current date. On average, around 2.8 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five financial years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes was $111,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This year has seen $656,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - Central shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 75.0% fewer new dwellings approved per person. This constrained supply typically increases demand and pricing for existing homes. The current building activity consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, indicating a growing range of medium-density options that cater to various price brackets.

The area currently has approximately 1529 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an established market. Projections indicate Tarneit - Central's population is expected to grow by 12,512 residents by the year 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tarneit - Central has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Harlow Tarneit, The Grove Tarneit, Tarneit Indoor Sports Facility, and Marigold Tarneit. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Tarneit - Central shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Tarneit - Central has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.5% and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 5.2% over the past year as of June 2025.

In this month, 16,981 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. The workforce participation rate is 68.8%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries among residents include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Notably, the area has a high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, education & training shows lower representation at 6.2% compared to the regional average of 9.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2% while labour force grew by 5.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Tarneit - Central. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tarneit - Central's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tarneit - Central had a median taxpayer income of $51,620 in financial year 2022, with an average income of $59,656. This was lower than the national average and compared to incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. As of September 2025, estimated median and average incomes are approximately $57,897 and $66,910 based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 income data, Tarneit - Central's household income ranks at the 76th percentile ($2,164 weekly), and personal income is at the 55th percentile. In terms of income distribution, 44.1% of the population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, which aligns with broader trends in the surrounding region (32.8%). Housing costs consume 17.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit - Central is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - Central's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.8% houses and 11.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - Central was at 11.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.9% and rented dwellings at 31.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,924. Median weekly rent in Tarneit - Central was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Tarneit - Central's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,900 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - Central features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.9% of all households, including 60.5% couples with children, 15.8% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.1%, comprising 9.9% lone person households and 3.1% group households. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit - Central shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Tarneit - Central is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 42.5% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.0% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.5% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 13.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 40.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education. There are 8 schools operating within Tarneit - Central, educating approximately 7,047 students as of the latest data. The area has balanced educational opportunities, with an ICSEA score of 1042, typical for Australian schools. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 2 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs, with 23.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.4, indicating Tarneit - Central serves as an educational hub for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit-Central has 79 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 5,234 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is considered good, with residents typically located about 207 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 747 daily trips across all routes, which translates to roughly 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - Central's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Tarneit - Central shows excellent health outcomes across various age groups. Both younger and older residents have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately half (50%) of Tarneit - Central's total population (~14,685 people) has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 5.3% and 4.1% of residents respectively. A higher proportion of Tarneit - Central's population (84.5%) reports being free from medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne (79.2%). As of the latest data (2020), 6.5% of Tarneit - Central's residents are aged 65 and over (1,937 people), which is lower than Greater Melbourne's figure of 8.3%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Tarneit - Central require more attention compared to the broader population.

Tarneit - Central is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-Central has a population where 59.6% were born overseas, with 67.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 31.8% of residents. The category 'Other' comprises 14.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 7.1%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 31.2%, followed by Indian (24.8%) and Australian (9.4%), all higher than regional averages. Notably, Filipino (4.1%), Samoan (1.4%), and Sri Lankan (0.9%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional figures of 3.1%, 1.0%, and 0.6% respectively.

Tarneit - Central hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit-Central has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit-Central has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (6.1%). This 5-14 age group is significantly higher than the national average of 12.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 45 to 54 age group has increased from 9.7% to 11.0% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 17.9% to 16.2%, and the 35 to 44 age group has dropped from 21.7% to 20.5%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest that Tarneit-Central's age profile will change significantly. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to grow by 2,529 people (78%), increasing from 3,260 to 5,790 residents.