Tarneit - Central

Tarneit - Central lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit - Central's population was approximately 29,668 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,552 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 28,116. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates; Tarneit - Central's population was around 29,462 in June 2024, with an additional 160 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,727 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Over the past decade, Tarneit - Central has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, outperforming its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate exceptional growth, placing Tarneit - Central in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch. The area is expected to grow by 12,718 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 42.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Tarneit - Central when compared nationally

Tarneit - Central averaged approximately 113 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. A total of 565 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 36 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 2.8 people moved to the area per new home constructed each year between FY21 and FY25, reflecting strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost of new homes was $111,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $656,000, suggesting a predominantly residential focus in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - Central has shown significantly reduced construction activity, with 75.0% fewer new constructions per person than the regional average. This limited new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. In terms of housing types, new building activity in Tarneit - Central showed a mix of detached houses (57.0%) and medium to high-density housing (43.0%).

This shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses at 89.0%, reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The area has approximately 1529 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Looking forward, Tarneit - Central is projected to grow by 12,512 residents by the year 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases in the area.

Tarneit - Central has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to affect this particular region. Notable initiatives include Harlow Tarneit, The Grove Tarneit, Bluestone Estate Tarneit, and Tarneit Indoor Sports Facility. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Tarneit - Central shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tarneit - Central has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.6%.

As of September 2025, 16,732 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 0.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 68.8%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Major employment industries included transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing had particularly high representation, at 2.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, education & training showed lower representation at 6.2% compared to the regional average of 9.2%. The area offered limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, and labour force grew by 5.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-Nov, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - Central's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2022, Tarneit - Central SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $51,620 with an average level standing at $59,656. This is lower than average nationally and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since June 30, 2022, current estimates would be approximately $57,897 (median) and $66,910 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,164 weekly), while personal income sits at the 55th percentile. Looking at income distribution, 44.1% of the population (13,083 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.0% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 74th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit - Central is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - Central's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.8% houses and 11.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - Central was at 11.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (56.9%) or rented (31.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,924. Median weekly rent was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Tarneit - Central's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - Central features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.9% of all households, including 60.5% couples with children, 15.8% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.1%, with lone person households at 9.9% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit - Central shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Tarneit - Central significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of the latest data, 42.5% of residents aged 15 years and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.0% in the SA4 region. This indicates a substantial educational advantage for the area, positioning it strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 24.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%).

Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15 years and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (13.6%). Educational participation is notably high, with 40.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit - Central has 79 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 5,234 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located approximately 207 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 747 trips per day, which equates to roughly 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - Central's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Tarneit - Central shows excellent health outcomes across all ages. Both younger and older residents have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately half (around 14,685 people) of Tarneit - Central's total population has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 5.3% and 4.1% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 84.5%, report being free from medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 79.2%. Tarneit - Central has a lower percentage of seniors aged 65 and over (6.5%, or 1,937 people) than Greater Melbourne (8.3%). However, health outcomes among seniors in Tarneit - Central warrant more attention than those of the broader population.

Tarneit - Central is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-Central, as of the latest data available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census conducted on 27 August 2016, has a population with 67.3% speaking languages other than English at home and 59.6% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tarneit-Central, comprising 31.8% of its population. However, Hinduism stands out as significantly overrepresented, making up 23.7% compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 15.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are 'Other', at 31.2%, Indian at 24.8%, and Australian at 9.4%. Notably, Filipino (4.1%), Samoan (1.4%), and Maori (1.4%) ethnicities also show higher representations compared to regional averages of 3.1%, 1.0%, and 1.2% respectively.

Tarneit - Central hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 31 years, Tarneit - Central's median age is notably under the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is significantly lower than the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - Central has a higher concentration of 5-14 residents (17.6%) but fewer 55-64 year-olds (6.1%). This 5-14 concentration is well above the national average of 12.2%. In the period since 2021, the 45 to 54 age group has grown from 9.7% to 11.0% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 17.9% to 16.2%, and the 35 to 44 group dropped from 21.7% to 20.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Tarneit - Central's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to expand considerably, increasing by 2,529 people (78%) from 3,260 to 5,790.