Tarneit - South

Tarneit - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit - South's population was around 11,714 as of Nov 2025. This reflected an increase of 532 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,182 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,708 in Jun 2024 and 8 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 3,742 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Tarneit - South had a compound annual growth rate of 3.1%, outpacing its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth was predicted over the period, with the area expected to grow by 5,210 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 44.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tarneit - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tarneit - South has averaged approximately 25 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25129 homes were approved, with a further 7 approved in FY-26 so far.

This averages out to about 2.5 people moving to the area per new home constructed over these years, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost of new homes is around $389,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers in Tarneit - South. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - South has significantly lower construction rates, at 86.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction typically increases demand and pricing for existing homes. Additionally, when compared nationally, it reflects a more mature market and potential development constraints. In terms of housing types, new building activity in Tarneit - South comprises 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% medium to high-density housing.

This mix includes an increasing number of attached housing options, providing choices across different price ranges from spacious family homes to more affordable compact units. This shift indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for diverse, affordable housing options. The area currently has approximately 1563 people per dwelling approval, indicating a well-established market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Tarneit - South is projected to add 5,204 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases in the future.

Tarneit - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact this region: West Tarneit Station, Westbrook Estate, The Grove Tarneit, and Tarneit North Community Precinct. The following details these key projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Tarneit - South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Tarneit - South has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% in the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 4.9%. As of June 2025, 6,326 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.6%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 66.5%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade.

The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.9%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had an employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Tarneit - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,013 and an average level of $55,488. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $53,851 (median) and $62,235 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Tarneit - South cluster around the 50th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows 42.1% of locals (4,931 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, placing disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 5th decile.

Tarneit - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 77.5% houses and 22.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - South was 15.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (55.0%) or rented (29.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,811, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,924. Median weekly rent was $369, similar to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Tarneit - South's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,811 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $369 compared to the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.9% of all households, including 53.8% couples with children, 17.0% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 13.6% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Educational achievement in Tarneit - South places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Tarneit - South has a higher proportion of residents with university qualifications aged 15 and above (35.4%) compared to the Australian average (30.4%). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 29.2% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 16.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.9% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit - South has 33 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 2,508 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 197 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 358 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tarneit - South's health outcomes show notable results with common conditions prevalent in both younger and older age groups. Approximately 48% (~5,575 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 51.4% and the national average of 55.3%. Asthma (6.6%) and diabetes (4.4%) are the most common conditions.

About 80.9% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 79.2%. The area has 7.6% residents aged 65 and over (884 people). Health outcomes for seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

Tarneit - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-South, as of the 2016 Census, has a population where 52.0% were born overseas. Among them, 59.9% spoke a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tarneit-South, with 38.4% of people identifying as such.

However, Islam is notably overrepresented, comprising 20.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 10.7%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (31.8%), Indian (16.9%), and Australian (13.0%). Samoan, Filipino, and Maltese ethnicities are also notably divergent from regional averages, with Tarneit-South having 1.5%, 3.7%, and 1.6% respectively.

Tarneit - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit-South's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.2%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, Tarneit-South's population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 12.8% to 14.3%, while the 55 to 64 age group increased from 6.3% to 7.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 15.7% to 13.7%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 9.4% to 8.2%. Demographic projections indicate that Tarneit-South's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 45 to 54 age cohort, which is projected to grow by 68%, adding 934 residents to reach a total of 2,316.