Tarneit - South

Tarneit - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit - South's population was around 11,891 as of May 2026. This showed an increase of 709 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,182. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,864 in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses after the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 3,799 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. Over the past decade, Tarneit - South had a compound annual growth rate of 2.3%, outperforming Greater Melbourne. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.7% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth, placing Tarneit - South in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. The area is expected to increase by 4,974 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 41.6% over the 16 years based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tarneit - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tarneit - South averaged approximately 25 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a total of 129 homes approved during this period. In FY-26, up until now, 21 homes have been approved.

On average, around 2.5 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost for new homes was $74,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - South has significantly lower construction levels, at 86.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained supply typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, this figure is also lower, which may reflect market maturity or possible development constraints. New developments in Tarneit - South consist of 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of attached housing types catering to different price ranges and lifestyle choices.

This marks a shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses at 78.0%. With around 1563 people moving in per dwelling approval, Tarneit - South shows signs of a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 4,947 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with this population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tarneit - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects expected to impact this region. Notable projects are West Tarneit Station, Westbrook Estate, The Grove Tarneit, and Tarneit North Community Precinct. Below is a list focusing on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Tarneit - South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Tarneit - South has an unemployment rate of 5.5% as of December 2025. This is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Employment growth in the area over the past year was estimated at 3.0%.

As of December 2025, 6,206 residents are employed. The workforce participation rate is 74.5%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A moderate proportion of residents work from home, with 21.6% doing so according to Census responses. Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade.

The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, while labour force grew by 4.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4% and unemployment increase by only 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate that employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these estimates are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Tarneit - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $49,419 and an average of $57,067. This is below the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $54,173 (median) and $62,557 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Tarneit - South cluster around the 50th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that the largest segment comprises 42.1% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly, with 5,006 residents falling into this range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Tarneit - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.5% houses and 22.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - South was at 15.6%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (55.0%) or rented (29.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,811, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tarneit - South's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.9% of all households, including 53.8% couples with children, 17.0% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.1%, consisting of lone person households at 13.6% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Tarneit - South places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Tarneit - South residents aged 15+ with university qualifications (35.4%) exceed the Australian average (30.4%). Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.2% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 16.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.9% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 5.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit - South has 33 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with four individual routes in total providing 1,042 weekly passenger trips combined. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 198 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 84%, while train usage accounts for 9%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 21.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 148 trips per day, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Tarneit - South shows excellent health outcomes according to AreaSearch's evaluation. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are low, particularly among younger residents. Private health cover is held by approximately 48% of the total population (~5,660 people), which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma (6.6%) and diabetes (4.4%), while 80.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Only 8.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (946 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Tarneit - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-South is one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas, with 52.0% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tarneit-South, comprising 38.4% of people. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented, making up 20.5% of the population compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (31.8%), Indian (16.9%), and Australian (13.0%). Notably, Samoan, Filipino, and Maltese ethnicities are overrepresented in Tarneit-South compared to regional averages.

Tarneit - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit-South's median age in 2021 was 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit-South had a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (17.7%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.5%). This 5-14 concentration was above the national average of 12.0%. Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Tarneit-South's median age increased from 31 to 32 years. The percentage of residents aged 55-64 grew from 6.3% to 8.0%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 12.8% to 14.4%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 decreased from 15.7% to 13.6%, and the 0-4 age group fell from 9.4% to 8.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Tarneit-South's age profile, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort, which is expected to grow by 61%, adding 886 residents to reach a total of 2,330.