Tarneit - South

Tarneit - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tarneit - South's population is around 11,714 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 532 people (4.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,182 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,708 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,742 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Tarneit - South has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 3.1% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA4 region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 60.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 5,210 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 44.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tarneit - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tarneit - South has averaged around 25 new dwelling approvals annually, with 129 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 16 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.5 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $74,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - South shows substantially reduced construction (86.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New building activity shows 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% medium and high-density housing, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 78.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 1563 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Future projections show Tarneit - South adding 5,204 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tarneit - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 2 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include West Tarneit Station, Westbrook Estate, The Grove Tarneit, and Tarneit North Community Precinct, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Tarneit - South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Tarneit - South possesses a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 5.5%, and 3.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,206 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.8% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (75.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 21.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.5 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.0% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.0% while the labour force increased by 4.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Tarneit - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tarneit - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Tarneit - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $49,419 with the average level standing at $57,067. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,496 (median) and $61,775 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Tarneit - South cluster around the 50th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 42.1% of locals (4,931 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 56th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Tarneit - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Tarneit - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 77.5% houses and 22.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tarneit - South was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 15.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (55.0%) or rented (29.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,811, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Tarneit - South's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 83.9% of all households, comprising 53.8% couples with children, 17.0% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 13.6% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 3.4 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Tarneit - South places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

University qualifications in Tarneit - South (35.4% of residents aged 15+) edge above the Australian average (30.4%), suggesting competitive educational foundations. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (16.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 39.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.9% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 33 active transport stops operating within Tarneit - South, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 1,042 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 198 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 84%, with 9% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 21.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 148 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Tarneit - South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, while the rate of private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,575 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.6% and 4.4% of residents, respectively, while 80.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 8.0% of residents aged 65 and over (942 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Tarneit - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 52.0% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Tarneit - South is Christianity, which makes up 38.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 20.5% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Tarneit - South are Other, comprising 31.8% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%), Indian, comprising 16.9% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 4.2%), and Australian, comprising 13.0% of the population (notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%). Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Samoan is notably overrepresented at 1.5% of Tarneit - South (vs 0.3% regionally), Filipino at 3.7% (vs 1.3%), and Maltese at 1.6% (vs 1.1%).

Tarneit - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 32 years, Tarneit - South's median age is materially younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and also significantly lower than the 38-year national average. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - South has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (17.9%) but fewer 65 - 74 year-olds (4.4%). This 5 - 14 concentration is well above the national 12.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows demographic aging is evident, with the median age advancing from 31 to 32 years. Key changes show the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.8% to 14.7% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 6.3% to 8.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 15.7% to 13.3% and the 35 to 44 group dropped from 19.5% to 17.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Tarneit - South's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 64%, adding 906 residents to reach 2,316.