Tarneit - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Tarneit - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit - South's population is approximately 11,714 as of August 2025. From the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,182, there has been an increase of 532 people, representing a 4.8% rise. This inference is based on the estimated resident population of 11,708 from the ABS as of June 2024 and the addition of 8 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at 3,742 persons per square kilometer, placing Tarneit - South in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, ending in August 2025, Tarneit - South has shown a compound annual growth rate of 3.1%, outperforming its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving the area's growth.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Tarneit - South is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By 2041, the area's population is projected to reach 16,924, reflecting an increase of 5,210 persons and a total rise of 44.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tarneit - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tarneit - South averaged approximately 25 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling 129 homes. In FY-26 up until now, 2 homes have been approved.

On average, 2.5 people moved to the area per new home constructed during these five years, reflecting strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value of new homes was $389,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers in Tarneit - South compared to other areas in Greater Melbourne. Tarneit - South had 86.0% less construction per person than the Greater Melbourne average between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a constrained new construction environment that typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This is also lower than national levels, which could indicate market maturity or potential development constraints. New building activity in Tarneit - South showed 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% medium to high-density housing over the past five financial years. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 78.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with a growing demand for diverse and affordable housing options.

The population density in Tarneit - South is approximately 1563 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Future projections estimate that the area will add 5,204 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases in the long term.

Tarneit - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include West Tarneit Station, Westbrook Estate, The Grove Tarneit, and Tarneit North Community Precinct. Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Tarneit - South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Tarneit - South has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% as of June 2024.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 4.9%. As of June 2025, 6,326 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 4.6%, 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation was 66.5%, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade.

The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the census working population vs resident population count. Over the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force grew by 5.8%, raising unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. As of Sep-25, state-level data shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3%% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes without considering localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Tarneit - South had a median income among taxpayers of $48,013 with an average level standing at $55,488. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% from financial year ended June 2022 to March 2025, current estimates would be approximately $52,867 (median) and $61,098 (average). Census data from 2021 shows incomes in Tarneit - South cluster around the national median. The earnings profile indicates that 42.1% of locals fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 income bracket, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, leaving disposable income at the national 57th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Tarneit - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 77.5% houses and 22.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - South was 15.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.0% and rented ones at 29.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,811, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,924. Median weekly rent in Tarneit - South was $369, similar to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were slightly higher at $375.

Tarneit - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.9% of all households, including 53.8% couples with children, 17.0% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 13.6% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Educational achievement in Tarneit - South places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Tarneit - South has a higher percentage of university-qualified residents aged 15+ (35.4%) compared to the Australian average (30.4%). Bachelor degrees are most common at 21.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (16.5%).

Educational participation is notably high at 39.7%, with 14.9% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education. Tarneit - South's three schools have a combined enrollment of 4,421 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1079) and functions as an education hub with 37.7 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 18.4. This attracts students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit - South has 33 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that collectively facilitate 2,508 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 197 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 358 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tarneit - South's health outcomes data shows notable results, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Approximately 48% (~5,575 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.4%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

Asthma and diabetes are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.6 and 4.4% of residents respectively. About 80.9% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 79.2% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 7.6% (884 people) aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Tarneit - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit - South has a population where 52.0% were born overseas, and 59.9% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Tarneit - South, with 38.4% adherents. The 'Other' religious category comprises 9.7%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 7.1%.

Regarding ancestry, the top groups are Other (31.8%), Indian (16.9%), and Australian (13.0%). Notably, Samoan ancestry is at 1.5% in Tarneit - South compared to 1.0% regionally, Filipino at 3.7% vs 3.1%, and Maltese at 1.6% vs 1.7%.

Tarneit - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit-South has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit-South has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.2%). This proportion of residents aged 5-14 is well above the national average of 12.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 12.8% to 14.3%, while the age group of 55 to 64 increased from 6.3% to 7.8%. Conversely, the age group of 25 to 34 has declined from 15.7% to 13.7%, and the age group of 0 to 4 has dropped from 9.4% to 8.2%. Demographic modeling indicates that Tarneit-South's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 cohort, which is expected to grow by 68%, adding 934 residents to reach a total of 2,316.