Tarneit - South

Tarneit - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit - South's population was around 11,714 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 532 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,182. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,708 in June 2024 and five validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,742 persons per square kilometer, placing Tarneit - South in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Tarneit - South has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1%, outpacing its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate exceptional growth in Tarneit - South, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The area is expected to grow by 5,210 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 44.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tarneit - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tarneit - South has averaged approximately 25 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 129 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved so far in FY-26.

On average, about 2.5 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, reflecting strong demand that supports property values. The average expected construction cost value for new homes is around $74,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers in Tarneit - South. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit - South has shown significantly reduced construction activity, with 86.0% fewer approvals per person on average. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes in the area. Additionally, when compared nationally, the lower level of new building activity reflects market maturity and potential development constraints. The types of dwellings being built in Tarneit - South are approximately 60.0% detached houses and 40.0% medium to high-density housing.

This shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 78.0% houses, suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles that require more diverse and affordable housing options. With an estimated population density of approximately 1563 people per dwelling approval, Tarneit - South demonstrates a well-established market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 5,204 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases in the future.

Tarneit - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. Two projects are identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting this area. Key projects include West Tarneit Station, Westbrook Estate, The Grove Tarneit, and Tarneit North Community Precinct. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Tarneit - South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Tarneit - South has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 5.4% in September 2025, which is 0.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%.

As of September 2025, 6,216 residents were employed. Workforce participation was 75.7%, similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 21.6% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade.

The area has strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.2%, while labour force grew by 5.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Tarneit - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $49,419 and an average income of $57,067. These figures are lower than the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,496 and average income $61,775. Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Tarneit - South cluster around the 50th percentile nationally. The earnings profile reveals that 42.1% of locals (4,931 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, mirroring the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Tarneit - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 77.5% houses and 22.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit - South was at 15.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.0% and rented ones at 29.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,811, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tarneit - South's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tarneit - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.9% of all households, including 53.8% couples with children, 17.0% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 13.6% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Tarneit - South places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Tarneit - South has a higher proportion of residents with university qualifications aged 15+, at 35.4%, compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common among these residents, at 21.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications.

This includes advanced diplomas held by 12.7% of residents and certificates held by 16.5%. Educational participation is high in Tarneit - South, with 39.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (14.9%), secondary education (9.6%), and tertiary education (5.6%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit - South has 33 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 1,042 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to transport, with an average distance of 198 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from this primarily residential area. Car is the dominant mode of transportation at 84%, while train use stands at 9%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 148 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Tarneit - South, with AreaSearch's assessment indicating low mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, particularly among younger cohorts. Approximately 48% (~5,575 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent conditions are asthma (6.6%) and diabetes (4.4%), with 80.9% reporting no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%.

Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Only 8.0% (~942 people) are aged 65 and over, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Tarneit - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit-South, as of the 2016 Census, is one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas with 52.0% of its population born overseas and 59.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tarneit-South, comprising 38.4% of people. Islam, however, is significantly overrepresented at 20.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are 'Other' (31.8%), Indian (16.9%), and Australian (13.0%). Notably, Samoan (1.5%) Filipino (3.7%), and Maltese (1.6%) populations are higher than regional averages.

Tarneit - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit-South has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (17.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.4%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.1%. According to data from the 2021 Census, demographic aging in Tarneit-South is evident with the median age increasing from 31 years to 32 years between censuses. Key changes include the growth of the 15-24 age group from 12.8% to 14.7%, and the increase of the 55-64 cohort from 6.3% to 8.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 15.7% to 13.3%, and the 35-44 age group dropped from 19.5% to 17.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Tarneit-South's age profile, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort, which is expected to increase by 64%, adding 906 residents to reach a total of 2,316.