Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's population is around 19,206 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 9,074 people (89.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,132 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,173 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 2,340 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 523 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's 89.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 79.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australian statistical areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 26,852 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 129.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has averaged around 838 new dwelling approvals annually, totalling 4,190 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26499 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.8 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), there is solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $266,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. Additionally, $5.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, complementing the area's residential character.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell shows 509.0% higher building activity (per person), offering buyers greater choice, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. This level is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 22 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell will gain 24,819 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 25 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Tarneit North Community Precinct, The Grove Tarneit, Werribee Junction & Mambourin East Precinct Structure Plans, and Tarneit Plains Primary School, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell features a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.9%, and 3.4% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 9,344 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.8% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (84.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 25.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.9 times the regional average. On the other hand, education & training is under-represented, with only 5.4% of Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's workforce compared to 9.2% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.4% while the labour force increased by 4.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $51,676 and an average of $59,669 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $55,939 (median) and $64,592 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 49.9% of residents (9,583 people), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 19.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 65th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.3% houses and 0.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 5.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (65.2%) or rented (29.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Melbourne metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $385, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 86.9% of all households, comprising 59.4% couples with children, 17.7% couples without children, and 7.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 13.1%, with lone person households at 9.2% and group households comprising 4.1% of the total. The median household size of 3.4 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 49.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.0% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 28.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (13.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 38.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 19 active transport stops operating within Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 1 individual route, collectively providing 229 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 485 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 83%, with 11% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. Some 25.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 32 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, while the rate of private health cover is approximately 49% of the total population (~9,391 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 4.5% and 2.9% of residents, respectively, while 89.0% of residents declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 2.4% of residents aged 65 and over (466 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 73.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 64.7% born overseas. The main religion in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is Christianity, which makes up 25.0% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Hinduism, which comprises 22.8% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.4%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell are Other, comprising 38.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Indian, comprising 26.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.2%, and English, comprising 7.6% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Filipino is notably overrepresented at 5.2% of Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell (vs 1.3% regionally), Samoan at 1.9% (vs 0.3%) and Maori at 1.2% (vs 0.3%).

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 30 years, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's median age is materially younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has a higher concentration of 35 - 44 residents (25.4%) but fewer 55 - 64 year-olds (3.2%). This 35 - 44 concentration is well above the national 14.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows demographic aging is evident, with the median age advancing from 29 to 30 years. Notable shifts include the 45 to 54 age group, which has grown from 5.9% to 9.9% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort increased from 17.8% to 21.6%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 25.4% to 15.7% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 13.8% to 11.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell. The 5 to 14 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 115%, adding 4,784 residents to reach 8,935.