Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's population was approximately 19,026 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a significant increase from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,132 people. The growth, totaling 8,894 individuals (an 87.8% increase), is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses since June 2024. This results in a population density ratio of 518 persons per square kilometer. The area's growth rate surpassed both national (8.9%) and state averages, driven primarily by interstate migration contributing approximately 79.8% of overall population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends predict exceptional growth, with the area expected to expand by 26,852 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 131.4% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell has seen approximately 838 new home approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,190 homes. As of FY26417 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.8 people per year move to the area for each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value of new homes is $266,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

In FY26, $5.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. When measured against Greater Melbourne, Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell records 509% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers despite a recent slowdown in building activity. This is significantly above the national average, reflecting robust developer interest in the area. New development consists of 95% standalone homes and 5% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 22 people per dwelling approval, Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell shows characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 24,999 residents by 2041, with current development patterns suggesting that new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 25 such projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Tarneit North Community Precinct, The Grove Tarneit, Werribee Junction & Mambourin East Precinct Structure Plans, and Tarneit Plains Primary School. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.7%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 6.1%. As of September 2025, there are 9,377 residents in work and the unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than Greater Melbourne's. Workforce participation is higher at 71.8%. Key industries include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing has a notable concentration with employment levels at 2.9 times the regional average. Education & training has limited presence at 5.4%, compared to the regional average of 9.2%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.1% and labour force grew by 7.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victorian employment growth of 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell SA2 had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers was $49,964 and the average income stood at $57,750. These figures compared to Greater Melbourne's of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $56,040 for median income and $64,772 for average income as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data showed household, family and personal incomes in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell clustered around the 69th percentile nationally. Income analysis revealed that 49.9% of locals (9,493 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. This was consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consumed 19.9% of income. However, strong earnings placed disposable income at the 65th percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell, as per the latest Census, 99.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 0.7% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was at 5.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.2% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,924. The median weekly rent figure in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was $385, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were lower at $375.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.9% of all households, including 59.4% couples with children, 17.7% couples without children, and 7.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 13.1%, with lone person households at 9.2% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's educational attainment is notably higher than national and regional averages. As of 2021, 49.0% of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.0% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 28.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.9% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 13.7% and certificates at 13.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 38.6% of residents enrolled in formal education as of 2021. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has 19 active public transport stops. These are all bus stops. There is 1 route serving these stops, which provides a total of 575 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to these stops is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 485 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 82 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell across both young and elderly age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 49% of the total population (~9,303 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.4%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 4.5 and 2.9% of residents respectively. Around 89.0% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 79.2%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 2.3% (441 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 8.3%. Despite this, health outcomes among the elderly require more attention than those in the broader population.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit West-Mount Cottrell is one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas, with 73.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 64.7% born overseas as of the latest data. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tarneit West-Mount Cottrell, making up 25.0% of people in this area. However, Hinduism is significantly overrepresented here compared to Greater Melbourne's average, comprising 22.8% of Tarneit West-Mount Cottrell's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (38.2%), Indian (26.2%), and English (7.6%), with notable differences from regional averages. Specifically, Filipino is notably overrepresented at 5.2%, Samoan at 1.9%, and Maori at 1.2%.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's median age at 30 years is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (25.5%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (3.1%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the age group 5-14 has increased from 17.8% to 21.4%, while the 35-44 cohort has risen from 22.3% to 25.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 25.4% to 17.0%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 13.8% to 11.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's age profile is expected to change significantly by 2041, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to expand substantially, increasing by 4,924 people from 1,721 to 6,646.