Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell
Statistical Area - sa2

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell's population is approximately 18,801 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 8,669 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,132. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 17,173 in June 2024 and validated new addresses of 2,222 since the Census date. This results in a population density of 512 persons per square kilometer. The area's population grew by 85.6% between the 2021 Census and August 2025, surpassing both national (8.6%) and state averages. Interstate migration contributed approximately 79.8% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these projections, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. These projections show exceptional growth for the area between 2025 and 2041, with a predicted population increase of 26,852 persons, representing a total gain of 134.2% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell has seen approximately 838 new home approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 4190 approvals from FY21 to FY25. By May 2026, there have been 187 approvals in FY26. Over the past five years, an average of 2.8 people per new home constructed moved to the area annually, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $379000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY26, commercial development approvals have reached $5200000, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell exhibits 509% higher building activity per person as of May 2026, offering greater choice to buyers despite recent moderation in development activity. This level is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest. Recent construction comprises 95% detached houses and 5% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The location has approximately 22 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts suggest Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell will gain 25224 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 24 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Stockland Mt Atkinson Estate, Tarneit North Community Precinct, The Grove Tarneit, Werribee Junction & Mambourin East Precinct Structure Plans. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 3.6%.

Employment grew by an estimated 4.7% over the past year. As of June 2025, 8,589 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was at 71.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing had employment levels at 2.9 times the regional average. However, education & training was under-represented with only 5.4% of the workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.2%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.7%, labour force grew by 5.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell had a median taxpayer income of $49,964 and an average income of $57,750 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was below the national average for that year. Greater Melbourne, however, had a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $55,015 (median) and $63,589 (average). Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 49.9% of residents (9,381 people), which is similar to patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 19.9% of income in the area. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 65th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's dwelling structure in its latest Census report showed 99.3% houses and 0.7% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area was at 5.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.2% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,924. Median weekly rent was $385, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.9% of all households, including 59.4% couples with children, 17.7% couples without children, and 7.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.1%, with lone person households at 9.2% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 3.1.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is notably high, with 49.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to the national average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's average of 32.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 28.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 17.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas make up 13.7% and certificates account for 13.2%. Educational participation is high, with 38.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 15.1% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education. Karwan Primary School and Brinbeal Secondary College serve the area, collectively enrolling 828 students. The suburb demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions, with an ICSEA score of 1056. Educational provision is conventional, with one primary and one secondary institution. However, local school capacity is limited at 4.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.4, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has 19 active public transport stops. These stops serve buses only. There is 1 route operating in the area, collectively providing 575 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically located 485 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 82 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows impressive results in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell, with both young and elderly residents experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 49% of the total population (~9,193 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.4%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, affecting 4.5% and 2.9% of residents respectively. About 89.0% of residents reported having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 79.2%. Only 2.3% of residents are aged 65 and over (436 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 8.3%. However, health outcomes among seniors in the area require more attention than those in the broader population.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell has a population where 73.7% speak a language other than English at home and 64.7% were born overseas, indicating significant cultural diversity. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 25.0% of the population. However, the category 'Other' is notably overrepresented at 15.8%, much higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 7.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (38.2%), Indian (26.2%), and English (7.6%). Notably, Filipino (5.2%) and Samoan (1.9%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Maori representation is similar at 1.2%.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's median age at 30 years is notably younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and significantly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (25.5%) but fewer aged 55-64 (3.1%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is considerably above the national average of 14.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 5 to 14 age group has increased from 17.8% to 21.4%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 22.3% to 25.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 25.4% to 17.0%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 13.8% to 11.7%. Demographic projections indicate that by 2041, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's age profile will undergo significant changes, with the 45 to 54 age cohort expected to expand substantially, growing by 4,944 people from 1,701 to 6,646.