Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell's population was around 19,206 as of February 2026. This reflected an increase of 9,074 people from the 2021 Census figure of 10,132. The growth was inferred from ABS estimates: 17,173 in June 2024 plus 2,340 new addresses since the census date. This resulted in a population density of 523 persons per square kilometer. The area's 89.6% growth exceeded national (9.9%) and state averages between 2021 and February 2026. Interstate migration contributed approximately 79.8% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. These projections indicate exceptional growth for the area between 2026 and 2041, with an expected increase of 26,852 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 129.2% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell has averaged 838 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,190 homes. In FY26 so far, 470 approvals have been recorded. Each year, an average of 2.8 people move to the area with each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25. New homes are built at an average expected construction cost value of $266,000, which is under regional levels.

This suggests more accessible housing choices for buyers. In this financial year, $5.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell shows 509.0% higher building activity per person. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. The location has approximately 22 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell is forecasted to gain 24,819 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 25 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Tarneit North Community Precinct, The Grove Tarneit, Werribee Junction & Mambourin East Precinct Structure Plans, and Tarneit Plains Primary School. The following list details those projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Tarneit West Mount Cottrell has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 3.7% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment grew by an estimated 6.1% over the past year.

There were 9,377 residents in work in September 2025, with a participation rate of 84.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. About 25.0% of residents worked from home according to Census responses. Leading industries include transport, postal & warehousing (2.9 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Education & training is under-represented with only 5.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.2%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 6.1%, labour force by 7.2%, raising unemployment by 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit West Mount Cottrell's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell SA2 is $51,676 and the average is $59,669 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average of $57,688 median income and $75,164 average income in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,939 median and $64,592 average. Census data shows that incomes in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 49.9% of residents (9,583 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing costs consume 19.9% of income in the area, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 65th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's latest Census data shows 99.3% houses and 0.7% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell was 5.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.2% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, matching Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $385, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390 respectively. Nationally, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.9% of all households, including 59.4% couples with children, 17.7% couples without children, and 7.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.1%, with lone person households at 9.2% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has a higher educational attainment than Australia's average. As of the latest data, 49.0% of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.0% in its SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 28.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.9% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 13.7% and certificates make up 13.2%.

Educational participation is high in the area, with 38.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell has 19 active public transport stops. All are bus stops serviced by one route, offering 229 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents located an average of 485 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car is the dominant mode of transportation, used by 83% of residents, while 11% use trains. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 25% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. Buses run an average of 32 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data for Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell shows excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular exhibit very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is found to be relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population, which comprises around 9,391 people.

This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne, with a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, affecting 4.5 and 2.9% of residents respectively. A total of 89.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 2.4% of residents aged 65 and over, comprising around 466 people, which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell is one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas, with 73.7% speaking a language other than English at home and 64.7% born overseas as of the latest data. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tarneit West - Mount Cottrell, comprising 25.0% of its population. However, Hinduism is significantly overrepresented at 22.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 4.4%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (38.2%), Indian (26.2%), and English (7.6%). Notably, Filipino representation is high at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 1.3%, Samoan at 1.9% versus 0.3%, and Maori at 1.2% against a regional average of 0.3%.

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has a median age of 30 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (25.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (3.2%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, demographic aging is evident with the median age increasing from 29 to 30 years. Notable shifts include the 45-54 age group growing from 5.9% to 9.9%, and the 5-14 cohort increasing from 17.8% to 21.6%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 25.4% to 15.7%, and the 0-4 group dropped from 13.8% to 11.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 5-14 cohort projected to grow by 115%, adding 4,784 residents to reach a total of 8,935.