Wyndham Vale - South

Population growth drivers in Wyndham Vale - South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Wyndham Vale - South's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 14,138. This figure represents a rise of 592 individuals (4.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,546. The increase is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 14,135 in June 2025 and two verified new addresses post-Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,850 persons per square kilometer, placing Wyndham Vale - South in the top quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration drove recent population growth, contributing about 57.7% of total gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Wyndham Vale - South is projected to have a population of approximately 19,338, reflecting an increase of 5,200 persons and a total rise of 36.8% over the 16-year period, based on AreaSearch's latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Wyndham Vale - South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Wyndham Vale - South has seen approximately 13 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 69 homes were approved, with an additional 11 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 0.8 new residents have arrived per year for each new home over these five years, indicating that new supply has been meeting or exceeding demand.

The average construction cost of these new homes is $195,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. In FY26, around $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus for development in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wyndham Vale - South has shown significantly reduced construction levels, at 94.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction can reinforce demand and pricing for existing dwellings. New development in Wyndham Vale - South consists of 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature while responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. This marks a significant shift from the current housing pattern, which is predominantly houses at 96.0%.

With around 2408 people per dwelling approval, Wyndham Vale - South reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 5197 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth in the future.

Wyndham Vale - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to affect the area. Notable ones are Savana Estate, Ballan Road Intersection Upgrade, Wyndham Vale Retail Hub, and 771 Ballan Road Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Wyndham Vale - South has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Wyndham Vale - South has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 8.6% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%.

As of that date, 7,262 residents were in work, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 72.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, a moderate 23.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area had particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. Professional & technical services had limited presence at 6.9% compared to the regional level of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7% while labour force increased by 4.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Wyndham Vale - South's local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Wyndham Vale - South SA2's median income among taxpayers was $57,089 and average income stood at $65,722 in financial year 2023, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated median income is approximately $62,581 and average income is around $72,044 as of March 2026. Census data from 2021 shows household, family, and personal incomes in Wyndham Vale - South rank modestly, between the 38th and 51st percentiles. The $1,500-$2,999 income bracket dominated with 40.0% of residents (5,655 people), reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupied this range. High housing costs consumed 16.3% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 51st percentile.

Wyndham Vale - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Wyndham Vale - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.5% houses and 3.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wyndham Vale - South was at 22.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.1% and rented ones at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,668, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $336, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Wyndham Vale - South's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,668 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Wyndham Vale - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.6% of all households, including 43.5% couples with children, 19.0% couples without children, and 16.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Wyndham Vale - South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than the SA3 average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (23.5%). Educational participation is high at 33.8%, comprising primary education (13.2%), secondary education (8.7%), and tertiary education (3.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Wyndham Vale - South has 66 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 7 routes, facilitating 2,675 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 193 meters to the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode at 86%, while trains account for 9%. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.5 per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 382 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Wyndham Vale - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Wyndham Vale - South faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover is slightly below average at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,337 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.5 and 8.3% of residents respectively. However, 72.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% rate across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among working-age residents are broadly typical. The area has 11.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,580 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Wyndham Vale - South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wyndham Vale - South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.1% of its population born overseas and 35.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Wyndham Vale - South, comprising 44.3% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which accounts for 4.8% of the population compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (20.7%), English (20.5%), and Other (19.2%). There are significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Indian is overrepresented at 8.2%, Maltese at 2.1%, and Maori at 1.1%.

Wyndham Vale - South's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Wyndham Vale - South has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wyndham Vale - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.1%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 12.7% to 13.9%, while the 75-84 age group increased from 2.4% to 3.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 14.8% to 13.1%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 7.9% to 6.7%. Population forecasts for Wyndham Vale - South indicate significant demographic changes by 2041, with the 55-64 cohort projected to grow by 71%, adding 963 residents to reach a total of 2,329.