Tarneit

Tarneit lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of the Tarneit statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 77,300 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 20,930 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 56,370. The change is inferred from the resident population of 71,632 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 5,562 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,020 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Tarneit (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 37.1% since the 2021 census, exceeding the national average of 9.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 70,685 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 83.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Tarneit recorded around 1,950 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 9,752 homes. So far in FY-26959 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, there has been an average of 2.4 people moving to the area per new home constructed, indicating healthy demand for property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $363,000. In FY-26, $7.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating Tarneit's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit records 112.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 37 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Looking ahead, Tarneit is expected to grow by 64,757 residents through to 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. With current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Tarneit has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 54 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include The Grove Tarneit, Tarneit North Community Precinct, Bluestone Estate Tarneit, and Tarneit Plains Primary School, with the following list detailing those of greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Tarneit exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Tarneit has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% as of September 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.4%. There are 39,829 residents employed in Tarneit with an unemployment rate of 0.8% below Greater Melbourne's and a workforce participation rate of 69.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Employment specialization is particularly high in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 2.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, education & training is under-represented, with only 6.2% of Tarneit's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparisons between working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4%, labour force grew by 6.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force increase by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Victoria as of 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tarneit's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tarneit has an income level below the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Tarneit is $51,453, with an average income of $59,465. These figures compare to those for Greater Melbourne, which are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since the financial year 2023, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $55,698 and an average income of $64,371 as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Tarneit cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. Income distribution indicates that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates, with 45.3% of residents (35,016 people) falling within this category, which is consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same income bracket. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income in Tarneit, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.6% houses and 10.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit stood at 10.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,924. Median weekly rent in Tarneit was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Tarneit's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Tarneit features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.4% of all households, including 59.1% couples with children, 16.7% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.6%, with lone person households at 10.2% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Tarneit's educational attainment exceeds broader standards significantly. Among residents aged 15+, 43.2% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and the SA4 region's 32.0%. This places Tarneit favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.3% and certificates at 13.8%. Educational participation is notably high in Tarneit, with 39.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis shows 151 active transport stops in Tarneit, served by a mix of train and bus routes. These are covered by 12 individual routes offering 5,055 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is rated moderate, with residents typically 400 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 722 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 33 weekly trips per stop.

Tarneit's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Tarneit's health outcomes data shows excellent results across all age groups. Both young and elderly residents have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 50% (~38,951 people) of Tarneit's population has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma (5.2%) and diabetes (3.8%), while 85.4% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 79.2% across Greater Melbourne. Tarneit has a lower percentage of residents aged 65 and over (4.7%, or 3,633 people) than Greater Melbourne (8.3%). However, health outcomes among seniors in Tarneit require more attention than the broader population.

Tarneit is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit has a population where 68.6% speak languages other than English at home, with 60.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 30.3%. Hinduism is notably higher than the Melbourne average, comprising 22.7%.

Ancestry-wise, 'Other' is highest at 33.7%, followed by Indian at 24.1% and Australian at 9.5%. Samoan, Filipino, and Sri Lankan groups are also overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Tarneit hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit has a median age of 30 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (19.3%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.0%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 12.2%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 21.5% to 22.8%, while the 45 to 54 cohort increased from 8.6% to 9.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group decreased from 20.2% to 16.9%. Demographic projections suggest that Tarneit's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to expand substantially, increasing by 12,356 people (161%) from 7,652 to 20,009.