Tarneit

Tarneit lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Tarneit's population is estimated at around 75,538, reflecting a 19,168 person increase (34.0%) since the 2021 Census which reported 56,370 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 71,664 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 5,562 validated new addresses since the Census date. The suburb's population density is 1,974 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Tarneit's growth exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth being positive factors. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the suburb expected to expand by 70,582 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 87.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tarneit was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Tarneit has recorded approximately 1,948 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 9,744 homes. As of FY-26 to date, 694 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed, indicating healthy demand which should support property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $363,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $7.5 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit records 112.0% more building activity per person, providing ample choice for buyers and indicating strong developer confidence in the location. New building activity shows 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Currently, there are around 37 people per approval in Tarneit, reflecting a developing area.

Future projections estimate Tarneit adding 66,416 residents by 2041 (based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tarneit has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts performance. AreaSearch identified 55 potential impact projects. Notable ones are The Grove Tarneit, Tarneit North Community Precinct, Bluestone Estate Tarneit, and Tarneit Plains Primary School. Below details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Tarneit shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tarneit has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.7% as of the past year.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 5.0%. As of June 2025, 38,290 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Tarneit was 69.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents include transport, postal & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Employment levels in transport, postal & warehousing were particularly notable at 2.7 times the regional average. However, education & training had limited presence with 6.2% employment compared to 9.2% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 5.0%, while labour force increased by 5.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Tarneit. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tarneit's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Tarneit's median income among taxpayers was $51,433 and average income stood at $59,442 in financial year 2022. These figures are lower than Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest Tarneit's median income will be approximately $57,687 and average income $66,670, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data shows that in Tarneit, 45.3% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the region where 32.8% are in the same category. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile nationally. Tarneit's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tarneit is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tarneit's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.6% houses and 10.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tarneit stood at 10.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, above Melbourne metro's average of $1,924. Median weekly rent in Tarneit was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Tarneit's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Tarneit features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.4% of all households, including 59.1% couples with children, 16.7% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 13.6%, with lone person households at 10.2% and group households making up 3.3%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Tarneit shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Tarneit's educational attainment is notably higher than national and regional averages. 43.2% of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.0% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.1% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 13.3% and certificates for 13.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. The area has 18 schools serving 13,048 students, with above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1057). These schools comprise 8 primary, 3 secondary, and 7 K-12 institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tarneit has 150 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 14 routes, facilitating 11,816 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents situated an average of 401 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 1,688 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 78 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tarneit's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Tarneit's health outcomes data shows significant results across all age groups.

Both young and elderly residents have a low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 50% (~38,056 people) of Tarneit's population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (5.2%) and diabetes (3.8%). 85.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 79.2% in Greater Melbourne. As of September 2021, 4.7% (~3,550 people) of Tarneit's population is aged 65 and over, lower than the 8.3% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Tarneit is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tarneit has a population where 68.6% speak a language other than English at home, with 60.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 30.3%. Hinduism stands out at 22.7%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 15.7%.

The top three ancestral groups are Other (33.7%), Indian (24.1%), and Australian (9.5%). Notably, Samoan is represented at 1.6% compared to the regional average of 1.0%, Filipino at 4.1% versus 3.1%, and Sri Lankan at 0.7% against a regional average of 0.6%.

Tarneit hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tarneit has a median age of 30 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tarneit has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (19.3%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.0%). This 5-14 concentration is higher than the national average of 12.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 21.5% to 22.8%, while the 45 to 54 cohort increased from 8.6% to 9.9%. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 20.2% to 16.9%. Demographic modeling indicates that Tarneit's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to expand substantially, increasing by 12,514 people (167%) from 7,478 to 19,993.