Melton
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melton's population is around 8,372 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 486 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,886 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,056 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 252 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 849 persons per square kilometer. Melton's growth rate of 6.2% since census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the national average (8.9%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 75.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, an above median growth is projected until 2041, with the area expected to expand by 1,349 persons, recording a gain of 12.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 62 homes. In FY2026 so far, 0 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, but development activity has been adequate relative to population change, which is positive for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $283,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

This financial year, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton records significantly lower building activity, 94.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 83.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1147 people, reflecting Melton's quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Melton adding 1,023 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Melton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Eighteen projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. Key projects include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs. The following list details those projects most relevant to the area's development.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Melton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Melton's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with construction being notably represented. The unemployment rate was 13.9% as of June 2025, showing a growth of 4.4% in employment over the previous year.

Residents in work numbered 3,201, while the unemployment rate stood at 9.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation was lower at 45.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for Melton residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a significant concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 3.2% of Melton's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.8 as of the Census, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. In the year to June 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, while labour force grew by 5.7%, leading to an increase in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. This compares with Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 3.5%, labour force expansion of 4.0%, and unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Melton's median taxpayer income in financial year 2022 was $38,748, with an average of $44,095 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Melton would be approximately $43,460 (median) and $49,457 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Melton all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile reveals that the $800 - 1,499 bracket dominates with 30.0% of residents (2,511 people), differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton, with only 81.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melton, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.2% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 16.8% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.2%, with mortgaged properties at 31.0% and rented dwellings at 35.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent in Melton was recorded as $300 compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.9% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 28.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education. Melton's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,071 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 984) with balanced educational opportunities. There are 2 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents is 12.8, below the regional average of 16.3, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton's public transport analysis shows 60 active stops operating within the city, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 4,070 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents on average located 226 meters from their nearest stop.

On a daily basis, these routes collectively run an average of 581 trips, which amounts to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent across Melton, affecting various age groups. Mental health issues impact 11.2% of residents, while arthritis affects 10.1%. Approximately 48% (~4,001 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 50.8% and the national average of 55.3%.

About 58.4% of Melton residents report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.4% (1,875 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Senior health outcomes mirror those of the general population.

Melton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton, surveyed in August 2016, had a higher overseas-born population at 29.9%, compared to the regional average of 34.7%. In terms of language spoken at home, Melton's 24.9% was lower than Greater Melbourne's 35.8%. Christianity dominated Melton's religious landscape at 50.8%.

Islam, at 4.2%, was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 6.3%. In ancestry, Australian (23.8%) and English (23.7%) were substantially higher than regional averages, while Other (12.5%) was notably lower. Notable divergences included Maltese (4.2% vs 5.1%), Serbian (0.8% vs 0.8%), and Samoan (1.1% vs 1.0%).

Melton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Melton is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (11.9% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (11.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75-84 age group grew from 6.1% to 8.6% of Melton's population, while the 25-34 cohort declined from 13.6% to 11.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Melton. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 53%, reaching 1,105 people from 720. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 61% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.