Melton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Melton's population is around 8,058 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 172 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,886 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,046 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 255 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 817 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 75.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth of national statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,349 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 16.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen around 12 new homes approved annually, totalling 62 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $283,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating a limited commercial development focus.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Melton records markedly lower building activity (94.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New development consists of 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 83.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated count of 1147 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Melton adding 1,337 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Melton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 18 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 15.2%, and 1.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,079 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 10.5% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (54.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 3.2% of Melton's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The ratio of 0.8 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.4% while the labour force increased by 4.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.3 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Melton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Melton SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $41,300 and an average of $46,819 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $44,707 (median) and $50,682 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Melton all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $800 - 1,499 bracket dominates with 30.0% of residents (2,417 people), diverging from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Melton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Melton was higher than that of Melbourne metro, at 33.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (31.0%) or rented (35.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 63.9% of all households, comprising 23.5% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.0%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 59 active transport stops operating within Melton, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 2,461 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 88%, with 5% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 14.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 351 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Melton, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~3,698 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 11.2% and 10.1% of residents, respectively, while 58.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,873 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 29.9% of its population born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Melton is Christianity, which makes up 50.8% of people in Melton. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.6% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Melton are Australian, comprising 23.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, English, comprising 23.7% of the population, and Other, comprising 12.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 4.2% of Melton (vs 1.1% regionally), Serbian at 0.8% (vs 0.4%) and Samoan at 1.1% (vs 0.3%).

Melton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

With a median age of 40, Melton is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (9.4% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (11.1%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.1% to 9.4% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.1% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 6.4% to 5.2%. Demographic modeling suggests Melton's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 348 people (46%) from 756 to 1,105. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.