Melton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melton's population is approximately 8,372 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 486 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,886. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,056 in June 2024 and an additional 252 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 849 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melton's growth rate of 6.2% since the census is within 2.7 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.3% of overall population gains during recent periods in Melton.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and the latest annual ERP population numbers, Melton is projected to experience above median population growth. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 1,349 persons, reflecting a total gain of 12.2% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 62 homes. As of FY-26, 0 approvals have been recorded so far. Despite a decline in population during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which is positive for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $283,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In FY-26, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to Greater Melbourne, where Melton records 94.0% lower building activity per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. When measured nationally, Melton's development activity is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 83.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Melton is 1147 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Melton is projected to add 1,023 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Melton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely to affect the area. Key projects include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Western Freeway Upgrade from Melton to Caroline Springs, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, and Melton Suburban Revitalisation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a high representation, an unemployment rate of 14.7%, and estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year.

As of September 2025, 3,099 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 10.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Melton lags significantly at 45.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a notably high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 3.2% of Melton's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 5.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from November 25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Melton SA2 was $38,748 and the average was $44,095 according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is below the national average of $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average), as seen in Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $43,460 and the average $49,457, based on a 12.16% growth since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that incomes in Melton fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 dominated with 30.0% of residents (2,511 people), differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket was predominant at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Melton, with only 81.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melton, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented dwellings at 35.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Melton was $1,300, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent in Melton was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.9% of all households, consisting of 23.5% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.5% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton's public transport analysis shows 60 active stops operating within the city, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by six different routes that collectively facilitate 4,070 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport options is rated as good, with residents on average located just 226 meters from their nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 581 trips per day, which translates to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 48%, covering around 4,001 people, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 50.8% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 11.2% and 10.1% of residents respectively.

Conversely, 58.4% report having no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. Melton has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.4%, with around 1,875 people in this age group compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 29.9% born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton, accounting for 50.8%. The 'Other' category comprised 1.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 0.56%.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (23.8%), English (23.7%) and Other (12.5%) were the top groups in Melton, differing from regional averages of 18.6%, 16.9% and 18.2% respectively. Notably, Maltese (4.2%), Serbian (0.8%) and Samoan (1.1%) groups had varying representations compared to regional figures.

Melton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Melton is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton has a notably higher percentage of people aged 65-74 (11.9% locally) but fewer people aged 25-34 (11.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.1% to 8.6%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Melton. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 53% (384 people), reaching 1,105 from 720. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 61% of the population growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.