Melton
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melton's population is approximately 8,360 as of August 2025. This figure shows an increase of 474 people, a growth rate of 6.0% since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 7,886. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 8,063 as of June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date amounting to 244 people. This results in a population density ratio of 847 persons per square kilometer, comparable with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melton's growth rate places it within 2.6 percentage points of the national average of 8.6%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.3% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs Victoria's State Government Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends indicate above median population growth for the area. Based on current numbers, Melton is projected to expand by 1,349 persons by 2041, marking a total gain of 12.4% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 new home approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 62 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, there have been no approvals recorded so far. Despite population decline in recent years, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, which could benefit buyers.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $438,000, consistent with regional patterns. This financial year, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton shows substantially reduced construction activity (94.0% below the regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 83.0% houses), reflecting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population density is 1147 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet development environment.

Future projections show Melton adding 1,035 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Melton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 21 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Melton Level Crossing Removals and New Melton Station, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, and Western Highway Melton Upgrades. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Melton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Melton has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 13.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 4.4%. There are 3,201 residents employed currently, while the unemployment rate is 9.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation is lower at 45.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing has notably high concentration with levels at 2.2 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 3.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.8, indicating local employment opportunities above normal standards. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, while labour force grew by 5.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% with an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. State-wide data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment growth at 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts by Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Melton's median taxpayer income in financial year 2022 was $38,748, with an average of $44,095 according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. By March 2025, estimates suggest Melton's median income would be approximately $42,665 and the average around $48,553, factoring in a 10.11% growth since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Melton all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 30.0% of residents (2,508 people) earn within the $800 - $1,499 bracket, unlike regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is dominant at 32.8%. Melton faces severe housing affordability pressures, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton's dwelling structures, according to the latest Census data, consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares with Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.2%, with the rest either mortgaged (31.0%) or rented (35.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent was $300 compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 63.9% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%). Educational participation is high at 30.2%, with 11.5% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.4% in tertiary education.

Melton's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,071 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 984) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 2 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents are 12.8, below the regional average of 16.3, with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 60 active stops operating in Melton, consisting of buses only. These stops are serviced by six routes, collectively providing 4,070 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 581 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 48%, covering around 3,996 people, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 50.8% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.1% of residents respectively.

However, 58.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 22.4%, totaling 1,872 people, which is higher than the 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The health outcomes among seniors generally align with those of the broader population.

Melton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's cultural diversity exceeds that of most local markets, with 29.9% of its population born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Melton, comprising 50.8% of people. Islam, however, is more prevalent in Melton compared to Greater Melbourne, representing 4.2% versus 6.3%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians make up 23.8%, English comprise 23.7%, and Other groups account for 12.5% of Melton's population. Notably, Maltese are overrepresented at 4.2%, Serbian at 0.8%, and Samoan at 1.1%.

Melton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Melton is 39 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, the 65-74 age group is notably more prevalent in Melton at 11.9%, while the 25-34 year-olds are less common at 11.6%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.1% to 8.6% of the population, and the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 11.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Melton. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 54%, reaching 1,105 people from 719. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 60% of the population growth, while the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.