Melton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melton's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 8,053, a rise of 167 people (2.1%) since the 2021 Census figure of 7,886. This increase is inferred from ABS' June 2024 estimated resident population of 8,046 and an additional 252 validated new addresses post-Census. The resultant density ratio is 816 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed about 75.3% of recent population gains in the area. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For uncovered areas, it employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward, the area is expected to grow above median national statistical areas' trends, expanding by 1,349 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 16.7% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 30, totalling 62 homes. As of April 28, 2026, 4 approvals have been recorded in this financial year. Despite a decline in population during this period, development activity has been relatively adequate, which is positive for buyers as new properties are constructed at an average value of $283,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. Additionally, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Melton records significantly lower building activity, 94.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points and suit downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 83.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated count of 1147 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Melton adding 1,342 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Melton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that could impact the area, with notable ones including the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 14.7% as of September 2025. This rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%, indicating room for improvement.

There are 3,099 residents employed in Melton, but workforce participation lags behind Greater Melbourne at 55.1%. A moderate 14.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has high concentration with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 3.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of workers per resident is 0.8, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 5.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% with a smaller increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Melton SA2 is $41,300 and the average is $46,819 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $44,707 (median) and $50,682 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Melton fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the $800 - $1,499 income bracket dominates with 30.0% of residents (2,415 people), differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 35.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Melton was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.9% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton has 59 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 2,461 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents typically living within 226 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most Melton residents commute outwards from their homes. Cars are the primary mode of transport for 88% of residents, while trains are used by 5%. On average, there is 1.1 vehicle per dwelling in Melton, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of Melton residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 351 trips per day, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of Melton's total population (~3,696 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 58.4% of Melton residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Melton has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.4%, with 1,803 people, than Greater Melbourne's 14.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the overall population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's population showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 29.9% born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton, accounting for 50.8% of its population. The category 'Other' had a slightly higher representation in Melton at 1.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (23.8%) and English (23.7%) were the top groups, both higher than their respective regional averages of 18.4% and 19.5%. Notably, Maltese (4.2%), Serbian (0.8%), and Samoan (1.1%) populations were overrepresented in Melton compared to regional figures of 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively.

Melton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Melton is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton has a notably higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (11.9% locally) and a lower percentage of residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group grew from 6.1% to 8.6% of Melton's population, while the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 13.6% to 11.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Melton. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 59%, reaching 1,105 people from 693. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 57% of the population growth. Conversely, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.