Melton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melton's population is around 8,058 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 172 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,886 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,046 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 255 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 817 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 75.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth of national statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,349 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 16.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Melton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton has seen approximately 12 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 62 homes. As of FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers, with new properties constructed at an average cost of $283,000, below the regional average. This financial year, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Melton records significantly lower building activity, 94.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 83.0% houses. The estimated population density of 1147 people per dwelling approval reflects Melton's quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Melton adding 1,337 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Melton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely affecting the region. Major initiatives include the Melton Level Crossing Removal Project, Melton Line Upgrade & Cobblebank Stabling Yard, Melton Suburban Revitalisation, and Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Melton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Melton's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with construction being notably prominent. The unemployment rate in Melton was 14.7% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%.

There were 3,099 residents employed while the unemployment rate stood at 10.1%, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Melton was lower at 55.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 14.3% of residents worked from home. The leading employment industries among Melton residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area has a particularly high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 3.2% of Melton's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of workers to residents in Melton was 0.8 as per the Census, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.1% while labour force increased by 5.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years. These projections are illustrative and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Melton SA2 is $41,300 and the average is $46,819, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode-level ATO data for the financial year ending June 2023. This is lower than the national averages of $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average), as seen in Greater Melbourne. Based on an 8.25% increase from the Wage Price Index since FY2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $44,707 (median) and $50,682 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Melton fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 30.0% of residents earn between $800 - $1,499, with 2,417 people falling into this bracket, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Melton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluation revealed that Melton's dwelling structure consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton stood at 33.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented dwellings at 35.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Melton was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.9% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (28.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (11.5%), secondary education (7.9%), and tertiary education (3.4%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton has 59 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These are served by a mix of buses along 11 routes, collectively facilitating 2,461 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Melton's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 88%, while train use stands at 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 14.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 351 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Melton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% of Melton's total population (around 3,698 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.1% of residents respectively. However, 58.4% of Melton residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age population health is notably challenged by high chronic condition rates. Melton has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.2%, or 1,873 people, than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes present challenges, with rankings generally in line with the national average for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton's population showed high cultural diversity, with 29.9% born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton, accounting for 50.8%. The 'Other' religious category comprised 1.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (23.8%), English (23.7%), and Other (12.5%) were the top groups in Melton. Notably, Maltese (4.2% vs regional 1.1%), Serbian (0.8% vs 0.4%), and Samoan (1.1% vs 0.3%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Melton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Melton's median age is 40, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton has a notably higher proportion of the 75-84 age group (9.4% locally) but fewer people aged 25-34 (11.1%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group grew from 6.1% to 9.4%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 13.6% to 11.1%, and the 0-4 group dropped from 6.4% to 5.2%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Melton's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to expand by 348 people (46%), growing from 756 to 1,105. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting Melton's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.