Melton West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Melton West had an estimated population of 9,454 as of February 2026, reflecting a growth of 670 people since the 2021 Census. This increase corresponds to a 7.6% rise from the previous population count of 8,784. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 9,423, based on an examination of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 997 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Melton West has shown consistent growth with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, surpassing the SA4 region's average. Natural growth contributed approximately 64% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, with Melton West expected to expand by 4,117 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 43.8% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Melton West when compared nationally

Melton West recorded approximately 29 residential properties granted approval per year based on AreaSearch analysis. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 149 homes were approved, with an additional 16 approved in FY-26. On average, each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 attracted about 5.5 new residents per year.

This has led to a significant demand exceeding supply, typically resulting in price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new dwellings was approximately $388,000. In the current financial year, Melton West has registered around $3.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating its primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has considerably less development activity, at 87.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties.

Nationally, this area also reflects below-average development, suggesting possible planning constraints. New development primarily consists of detached dwellings, making up 93.0% of approvals, with the remaining 7.0% being medium and high-density housing. This preserves Melton West's suburban nature, attracting space-seeking buyers. The area has approximately 390 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established population. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Melton West is projected to gain around 4,138 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Melton West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include Hopkins Road Level Crossing Removal in Truganina (completed Dec 2020), Western Freeway Upgrade from Melton to Caroline Springs (commenced Aug 2021, expected completion late 2023), Masjid Tawheed Melton Community Hub (opened Jul 2019), and Harkness Memorial Park (opened Apr 2018). The following list details projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Melton West are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Melton West has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is notably prominent. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate was 9.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.4% over the past year.

Residents in work numbered 4,511 while the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Melbourne's at 4.7%. Workforce participation was lower at 66.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Home working residents stood at 17.1%, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries include retail trade, construction, and health care & social assistance.

The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (2.1 times the regional level) but lower representation in professional & technical services (3.6% vs regional average of 10.1%). Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.4%, labour force by 5.5%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Melton West's employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton West suburb's median taxpayer income is $45,806 and average is $52,127, according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $49,585 (median) and $56,427 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 32nd percentile ($1,450 weekly), while personal income sits at the 16th percentile. Distribution data indicates that 35.5% of locals (3,356 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, reflecting broader area patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Melton West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Melton West's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.8% houses and 6.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton West was 30.6%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.7% and rented ones at 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000 average. Median weekly rent in Melton West was $320, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton West's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,500 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton West has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.8% of all households, including 33.8% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 17.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.0% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 28.1%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.5% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton West has 54 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 13 different routes that collectively provide 2,534 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, and cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 92%. Each dwelling averages 1.6 vehicles, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 362 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton West is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Melton West faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,493 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma (9.7%) and mental health issues (9.4%). Conversely, 65.2% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Melton West has 15.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,484 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning broadly with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton West was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton West had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 23.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton West, comprising 49.8% of the population. Notably, the percentage of people identifying as 'Other' religion was similar to that of Greater Melbourne, at 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (24.1%), Australian (23.2%), and Other (12.7%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences in representation compared to regional averages: Maltese (3.8% vs 1.1%), Samoan (1.2% vs 0.3%), and Serbian (0.6% vs 0.4%) were notably higher in Melton West.

Melton West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Melton West has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 years (13.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 years (10.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15-24 years has increased from 13.0% to 14.6%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 years has decreased from 13.0% to 10.0%. The percentage of residents aged 5-14 years has also dropped, from 15.0% to 13.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Melton West's age profile, with the strongest growth projected for the 55-64 age group, which is expected to increase by 65%, adding 697 residents to reach a total of 1,766.