Melton West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The Melton West statistical area (SA2) had an estimated population of 9,454 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses. This figure represents a growth of 670 people (7.6%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 8,784. The estimation is based on AreaSearch's resident population count of 9,423 from June 2024 ERP data and 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 997 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Melton West demonstrated a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, outperforming its SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the former data. Future population growth is predicted to be exceptional, placing Melton West in the top 10 percent nationally, with an expected expansion of 4,129 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 43.8% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Melton West when compared nationally

Melton West recorded approximately 29 residential properties granted approval per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 149 homes were approved, with a further 16 approved in FY-26. On average, 5.5 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed over these years.

This high demand exceeds supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $388,000. In FY-26, $3.9 million in commercial approvals were registered, indicating the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has significantly less development activity, with 87.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties.

Nationally, it is also below average, suggesting possible planning constraints. New development consists of 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban character with a focus on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. Melton West has approximately 390 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate it will gain 4,145 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Melton West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects that may affect the area. Notable projects include Hopkins Road Level Crossing Removal in Truganina, Western Freeway Upgrade from Melton to Caroline Springs, Masjid Tawheed Melton Community Hub, and Harkness Memorial Park. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Melton West are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Melton West has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate was 9.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.6% over the past year. There are 4,532 residents in work, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's at 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 57.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among Melton West residents are retail trade, construction, and health care & social assistance.

The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, while labour force increased by 5.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points during the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%, and employment growth outpaces the national average. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton West's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton West suburb has a median taxpayer income of $45,806 and an average income of $52,127 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $49,585 (median) and $56,427 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows household income ranks at the 32nd percentile ($1,450 weekly), with personal income at the 16th percentile. Income distribution shows that 35.5% of locals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, reflecting broader area patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Melton West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton West's residential structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.8% houses and 6.2% other dwellings like semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton West stood at 30.6%, with mortgaged properties at 45.7% and rented ones at 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent was $320 compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton West's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton West has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.8% of all households, including 33.8% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 17.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households at 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (28.1%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.5% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton West has 54 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that together facilitate 2,534 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 199 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency across all routes averages 362 trips per day, which translates to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Melton West faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but slightly more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% (~4,493 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.1%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Asthma and mental health issues are the most common conditions, affecting 9.7 and 9.4% of residents respectively. However, 65.2% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.3% (1,446 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton West was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton West had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 23.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton West, comprising 49.8% of people. However, there was an overrepresentation in Other religions, making up 2.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (24.1%), Australian (23.2%), and Other (12.7%). Notably, Maltese (3.8%) and Samoan (1.2%) groups were overrepresented in Melton West compared to regional averages of 5.1% and 1.0%, respectively, while Serbian was slightly underrepresented at 0.6%.

Melton West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Melton West has a median age of 36 years, closely matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 13.0% to 14.3%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 13.0% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Melton West's age profile, with the 55-64 cohort expected to grow by 69%, adding 719 residents to reach a total of 1,769.