Melton West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Melton West is around 9,422, reflecting an increase of 638 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Melton West by AreaSearch in June 2024 indicated a resident population of 9,408, with an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this figure. This results in a population density ratio of 993 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Melton West has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, outpacing its SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing Melton West in the top 10 percent of national areas, with an expected expansion of 4,128 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 44.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Melton West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Melton West recorded approximately 30 residential properties approved annually, with 151 homes approved between financial years 2020/21 (FY-21) and 2025/26 (FY-25), and 12 more in FY-26. Each new dwelling is estimated to bring in around 5.4 new residents annually over the past five financial years. This high demand outpaces supply, typically leading to price growth and increased competition among buyers.

The average construction cost of new dwellings is $388,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $3.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has significantly lower building activity (87.0% below the regional average per person), which can strengthen demand and prices for existing properties due to scarcity of new homes. The area's building activity consists mainly of detached dwellings (90.0%), preserving its suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers, with around 624 people moving in per approval, indicating a mature, established area. By 2041, Melton West is projected to grow by 4,176 residents.

If current development rates persist, housing supply might not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Melton West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 19 projects potentially affecting the area. Notable projects include Western Freeway Upgrade (Melton to Caroline Springs), Hopkins Road Level Crossing Removal - Truganina, Masjid Tawheed Melton Community Hub, and Harkness Memorial Park. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Melton West lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Melton West has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 8.8% in the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 5.0%. As of June 2025, 4,557 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's by 4.2 percentage points. Workforce participation is lower at 57.0%. Key industries include retail trade, construction, and health care & social assistance.

Transport, postal & warehousing stands out with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level. However, professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 3.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area may lack local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 5.0%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, leading to a 0.7 percentage point rise in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that Melton West's employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Melton West had a median income among taxpayers of $45,806 and an average level of $52,127. This is lower than the national average of $54,892 and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Melton West would be approximately $51,376 (median) and $58,466 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data ranks household income at the 32nd percentile ($1,450 weekly) and personal income at the 16th percentile for Melton West. Distribution data shows that 35.5% of locals (3,344 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to regional levels where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Melton West, with only 83.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Melton West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melton West's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.8% houses and 6.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton West was at 30.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.7% and rented ones at 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Melton West was $320, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Melton West's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Melton West has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.8% of all households, composed of 33.8% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 17.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households making up 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Melton West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 28.1%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.5% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Melton West has a robust network of 8 schools educating approximately 5,916 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 971) and balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 62.8 school places per 100 residents, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton West has 53 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 4,207 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 199 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 601 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 79 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Melton West faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but slightly more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48%, affecting around 4,478 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 50.8% and the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (9.7%) and mental health issues (9.4%). About 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne. Melton West has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.3%, with around 1,441 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Melton West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton West's cultural diversity was higher than most local markets, with 28.1% of residents born overseas and 23.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melton West, comprising 49.8% of its population. The category 'Other' showed significant overrepresentation in Melton West compared to Greater Melbourne, with 2.3% versus 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (24.1%), Australian (23.2%), and Other (12.7%). Notably, Maltese (3.8%) and Samoan (1.2%) groups were overrepresented in Melton West compared to regional averages of 5.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Serbian representation was slightly lower than the regional average at 0.6%.

Melton West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Melton West has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. This is slightly below the Australian median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (14.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 13.0% to 14.3%, while the percentage of those aged 25-34 has decreased from 13.0% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Melton West's age profile. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 69%, adding 724 residents and reaching a total of 1,770.