Melton West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melton West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The estimated population of the suburb of Melton West is around 9,454 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 670 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,784. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of ABS data released in June 2024, is 9,423, with an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 997 persons per square kilometer. Melton West's population growth rate of 7.6% since the census places it within 2.3 percentage points of the national average of 9.9%. Natural growth contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional future growth is predicted over the period, with the suburb expected to expand by 4,107 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 43.1% in total over these 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Melton West when compared nationally

Melton West recorded approximately 29 residential properties approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 149 homes were granted approval, with an additional 16 approved in FY-26. On average, each dwelling constructed attracted about 5.4 new residents per year over the past five financial years.

This has led to demand outstripping supply, typically resulting in price growth and increased buyer competition. The average development value of new dwellings was $388,000 during this period. In FY-26, $3.9 million in commercial approvals were registered, indicating the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has significantly less development activity, 88.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties.

This is also below national averages, suggesting possible planning constraints or maturity of the area. New developments consist mainly of detached dwellings (93.0%) with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (7.0%), maintaining Melton West's suburban character. As of now, there are approximately 390 people per dwelling approval in the location. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Melton West is projected to gain 4,076 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Melton West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Hopkins Road Level Crossing Removal - Truganina, Western Freeway Upgrade (Melton to Caroline Springs), Masjid Tawheed Melton Community Hub, and Harkness Memorial Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Melton West are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Melton West has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is notably prominent. In the past year, ending December 2025, unemployment stood at 9.3% with an estimated employment growth of 2.8%.

As of that date, 4,492 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 4.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Melton West lagged behind Greater Melbourne at 65.3% compared to 71.3%. According to Census responses, 17.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are retail trade, construction, and health care & social assistance.

The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level, while professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8% while labour force grew by 4.2%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% with a labour force increase of 2.8%, and an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melton West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Melton West suburb's median taxpayer income is $45,806 and average is $52,127, based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average of $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $49,585 (median) and $56,427 (average), accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 32nd percentile ($1,450 weekly), with personal income at the 16th percentile. Distribution shows 35.5% (3,356 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting broader area patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Melton West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Melton West's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.8% houses and 6.2% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melton West was 30.6%, similar to Melbourne metro. Mortgaged dwellings were 45.7% and rented ones were 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, below the Melbourne metro average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Melton West was $320, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Melton West's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $320 compared to the national figure of $375.

Melton West has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 76.8% of all households, including 33.8% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 17.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Melton West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 28.1%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melton West has 54 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that together facilitate 2,534 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 199 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (92%). On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 17.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, buses operate an average of 362 trips daily, equating to roughly 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melton West is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Melton West faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,493 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.7% and 9.4% of residents respectively. However, 65.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age population health is notably challenged by high chronic condition rates. The area has 15.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,493 people). Senior health outcomes present challenges but align broadly with national rankings.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melton West was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melton West, surveyed in August 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 23.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 49.8%. The 'Other' religious category had an equal representation compared to Greater Melbourne, both at 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (24.1%), Australian (23.2%), and Other (12.7%). Notably, Maltese (3.8% vs regional 1.1%), Samoan (1.2% vs 0.3%), and Serbian (0.6% vs 0.4%) populations were overrepresented in Melton West compared to Greater Melbourne.

Melton West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Melton West has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. This is modestly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Melton West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.3%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 13.0% to 14.9%, while the population aged 25-34 has declined from 13.0% to 10.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Melton West's age profile will change significantly, with the strongest projected growth in the 55-64 cohort, which is expected to increase by 64%, adding 699 residents to reach a total of 1,787.