Sunbury - West
Statistical Area - sa2

Sunbury - West has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Sunbury - West's population, as of Aug 2025, is approximately 11,467. This figure represents an increase of 301 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,166. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 11,405 in June 2024 and an additional 32 validated new addresses post-Census. The population density is around 303 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.9% of recent overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Projected demographic shifts suggest exceptional growth for the area, placing it in the top 10 percent nationally. By 2041, the population is projected to increase by 5,074 persons, reflecting a total increase of 43.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Sunbury - West, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Sunbury-West has averaged approximately 34 new dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data is provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis. Between Financial Year 2021 and Financial Year 2025, there were 173 homes approved.

As of June 2026, there have been 3 approvals in Financial Year 2026. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply has likely met demand, offering good choices for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $358,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury-West has significantly less development activity, being 83.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a growing mix of housing types to provide options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 96.0% houses. The estimated population density is 396 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet and low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Sunbury-West is expected to grow by approximately 5,011 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunbury - West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include Canterbury Hills Estate, Metro Tunnel Project from Sunbury to Cranbourne/Pakenham, redevelopment of Sunbury Square Shopping Centre, and Diggers Rest Level Crossing Removal Project at Old Calder Highway & Watsons Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Sunbury - West shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Sunbury-West has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.8%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%. As of June 2025, 7,001 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.7% and workforce participation at 69.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment is notably high, at 1.4 times the regional average, while professional & technical employs only 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.2%, labour force by 4.3%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury-West's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Sunbury - West had a median taxpayer income of $56,982 and an average of $67,245 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This was higher than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $62,743 (median) and $74,043 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Sunbury - West cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 40.2% of residents (4,609 people), similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupied this bracket. After housing costs, 86.2% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Sunbury - West's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.5% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasted with Melbourne metro's figures of 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury - West stood at 30.1%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (49.2%) or rented (20.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than the Melbourne metro average of $1,750 and the national average of $1,863. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure was $376, higher than Melbourne metro's $369 but lower than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury - West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.8% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 25.9% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households making up 19.5% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Sunbury - West aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 20.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (29.1%).

Educational participation is notably high at 28.1%, including primary education (9.7%), secondary education (7.2%), and tertiary education (4.2%). Sunbury-West's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,042 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities, serving as an educational center for the broader region due to its excess school capacity (17.8 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 14.5).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury - West has 71 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. Four routes service these stops, together offering 3015 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 203 meters to the nearest stop.

The services run frequently, averaging 430 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to about 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury - West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury West faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among its residents, particularly among older age cohorts.

Approximately 53% (~6,123 people) of the total population have private health cover. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.3 and 10.0% of residents respectively. Around 65.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.7% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 15.4% (1,765 people) falling into this age group. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population due to presenting challenges.

Sunbury - West ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury-West was found to have a below average cultural diversity, with 84.0% of its population born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 91.5% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, comprising 48.9% of Sunbury-West's population. Notably, the 'Other' category comprised 0.8%, compared to 1.5% across Greater Melbourne.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.9%), Australian (27.1%), and Irish (9.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Maltese at 2.5% (vs regional 2.8%), Polish at 0.9% (vs 1.0%), and Croatian at 0.8% (vs 1.0%).

Sunbury - West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Sunbury-West has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury-West has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 35-44 grew from 13.3% to 15.7%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 3.6% to 5.0%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 declined from 13.1% to 11.2%, and the 25-34 age group decreased from 15.6% to 13.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Sunbury-West's age profile will significantly change, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort (63%), adding 807 residents to reach a total of 2,096.