Sunbury - West

Sunbury - West has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Sunbury - West's population is around 11,664 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 498 people (4.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,166 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,404 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 36 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 308 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 65.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas, is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 5,074 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 41.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Sunbury - West, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Sunbury - West has averaged around 34 new dwelling approvals per year, with 173 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 9 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $318,000.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - West has significantly less development activity (83.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New development consists of 69.0% detached houses and 31.0% attached dwellings, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 96.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated count of 396 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Sunbury - West will gain 4,814 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Sunbury - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 19 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Canterbury Hills Estate, The Sunbury Gateway, Sunbury South Town Centre, and Everley Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Sunbury - West shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Sunbury - West possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.2%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,707 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.6% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (75.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 24.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.9% alongside a 0.2% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Sunbury - West. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Sunbury - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Sunbury - West SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $60,611 and an average of $71,481 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is above the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $65,611 (median) and $77,378 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Sunbury - West cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 40.2% of residents (4,688 people), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Sunbury - West, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.5% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Sunbury - West was in line with that of Melbourne metro, at 30.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (49.2%) or rented (20.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $376, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Sunbury - West's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Sunbury - West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.8% of all households, comprising 37.8% couples with children, 25.9% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.5% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Sunbury - West aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.3%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (29.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 71 active transport stops operating within Sunbury - West, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 2,158 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 24.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 308 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury - West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury - West faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~6,403 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.3 and 10.0% of residents, respectively, while 65.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 16.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,890 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Sunbury - West ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury - West was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.0% of its population born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 91.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Sunbury - West is Christianity, which makes up 48.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 0.8% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Sunbury - West are English, comprising 27.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 27.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 9.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 2.5% of Sunbury - West (vs 1.1% regionally), Polish at 0.9% (vs 0.8%), and Italian at 4.5% (vs 5.2%).

Sunbury - West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 36 years, Sunbury - West's median age is nearly matching the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is similarly modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - West has a higher concentration of 55 - 64 residents (12.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (13.3%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.3% to 16.0% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 3.6% to 5.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 15.6% to 13.3% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Sunbury - West's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 61%, adding 796 residents to reach 2,096.