Sunbury - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Sunbury - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Sunbury - South's population is approximately 18,805 as of August 2025. This represents an increase of 3,820 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,985. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 16,990 in June 2024 and an additional 1,917 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 453 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury - South's population grew by 25.5% between the 2021 Census and August 2025, surpassing both national (8.6%) and state averages. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.2% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these projections, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Predictions indicate exceptional growth for Sunbury - South, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, the population is expected to increase by 13,730 persons, a total increase of 62.5% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Sunbury - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Sunbury - South recorded approximately 362 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 1,813 homes were approved, with a further 142 approved in FY-26 so far. Each year, on average, 1.2 people moved to the area for each dwelling built during these five financial years.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions. The average construction cost value of new homes was $368,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. This financial year has seen $5.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - South had 30.0% more development per person over the five-year period, preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

This activity is notably higher than national averages, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consisted of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 36 people per dwelling approval, Sunbury - South shows characteristics of a growth area. By 2041, it is projected that Sunbury - South will grow by approximately 11,744 residents. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Sunbury - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Sunbury Square Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Diggers Rest Level Crossing Removal Project - Old Calder Highway & Watsons Road, Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group, and Plumpton Aquatic and Leisure Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Sunbury - South has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Sunbury - South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.4%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.9%. As of June 2025, 9,207 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% and workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area specialises in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment share at 1.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 5.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, labour force by 4.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data as of Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2022, Sunbury - South had a median taxpayer income of $57,053 and an average income of $67,218. Nationally, the median was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. By March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,821 (median) and $74,014 (average), based on a 10.11% increase since June 2022. The 2021 Census showed that Sunbury - South's household, family, and personal incomes were at the 52nd percentile nationally. Income distribution data revealed that 35.7% of residents (6,713 people) earned between $1,500 and $2,999 annually. This aligns with the surrounding region where this income bracket also represented 32.8%. Residents spent 15.6% of their income on housing costs, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 50th percentile nationally. Sunbury - South's SEIFA income ranking was in the 5th decile.

Sunbury - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury - South was 31.0%, similar to Melbourne's 31.0%. Mortgaged dwellings were at 43.0%, with rented dwellings at 26.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,750 but lower than the Australian average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Sunbury - South was $351, compared to Melbourne's $369 and Australia's $375.

Sunbury - South has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.9% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Sunbury - South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (25.9%). Educational participation is high at 28.2%, with 10.3% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Sunbury - South's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,253 students, reflecting typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1028) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary schools and one K-12 school. Local school capacity is limited at 6.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.5, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 106 active transport stops operating in Sunbury - South, comprising a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 individual routes, collectively providing 9,096 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 286 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,299 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Sunbury - South is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury-South faces significant health challenges with a substantially higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to average figures, particularly amongst older age groups.

As of approximately mid-2016, around 53% (~10,041 people) of its total population had private health cover. Mental health issues and asthma were the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.3% and 9.7% of residents respectively, while 63.8% reported having no medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 65.7%. As of mid-2016, 18.1% (3,396 people) of Sunbury-South's population was aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors require particular attention due to the specific challenges they face.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Sunbury - South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury-South had above-average cultural diversity, with 19.9% of its population born overseas and 12.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Sunbury-South, comprising 51.8% of the population. Judaism was notably overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (26.7%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.0%). Maltese, Croatian, and Hungarian ethnicities were also notable for their representation in Sunbury-South at 2.7%, 1.1%, and 0.4% respectively, differing from regional averages of 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.3%.

Sunbury - South's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Sunbury - South was recorded as 38 years old at the time of the census, closely matching Greater Melbourne's average age of 37 years and aligning with Australia's national median age of 38 years. When comparing Sunbury - South to Greater Melbourne, it is noted that there is a higher proportion of residents aged between 65 and 74 years old in Sunbury - South, standing at 9.4%, while the percentage of those aged between 25 and 34 years old is lower at 13.6%. Between the censuses conducted in 2021 and previously, there has been an increase in the proportion of residents aged between 75 and 84 years old from 5.4% to 6.3%, while the percentage of those aged between 5 and 14 years old has decreased slightly from 12.8% to 12.2%. By the year 2041, Sunbury - South is projected to experience significant changes in its age distribution, with the group aged between 55 and 64 years old expected to grow by 82%, comprising an additional 1,670 people, bringing their total number up from 2,038 to 3,709.