Sunbury - South

Sunbury - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Sunbury - South's population is around 18,353 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 3,368 people (22.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,985 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,819 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 2,177 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 442 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Sunbury - South's 22.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 63.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 13,730 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 66.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Sunbury - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Sunbury - South has recorded around 362 residential properties granted approval each year, with 1,813 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 350 so far in FY-26. With an average of 1.2 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), the market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, while new homes are being built at an average value of $322,000. There have also been $5.8 million in commercial approvals this financial year, complementing the area's residential character.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - South has slightly more development (30.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This activity is substantially higher than nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 36 people per dwelling approval, Sunbury - South shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, Sunbury - South is expected to grow by 12,196 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Sunbury - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 35 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Plumpton Aquatic and Leisure Centre, The Sunbury Gateway, Redstone Town Centre, and Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunbury - South has been broadly consistent with national averages

Sunbury - South possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.6%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 9,275 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 25.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.7% while employment declined by 0.0%, resulting in the unemployment rate falling by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Sunbury - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Sunbury - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Sunbury - South SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $60,683 and an average of $71,490 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is above the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $65,689 (median) and $77,388 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Sunbury - South cluster around the 51st percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 35.7% of residents (6,552 people), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 50th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Sunbury - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Sunbury - South was in line with that of Melbourne metro, at 31.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (43.0%) or rented (26.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,800, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Sunbury - South's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury - South has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.9% of all households, comprising 31.8% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Sunbury - South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (22.0%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (25.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 106 active transport stops operating within Sunbury - South, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 13 individual routes, collectively providing 7,198 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 285 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 6% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 25.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,028 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Sunbury - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury - South faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~10,075 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.3 and 9.7% of residents, respectively, while 63.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,387 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Sunbury - South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury - South was found to be roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 80.1% of its population born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 87.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Sunbury - South is Christianity, which makes up 51.8% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.2% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Sunbury - South are English, comprising 26.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 26.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 2.7% of Sunbury - South (vs 1.1% regionally), Croatian at 1.1% (vs 0.7%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Sunbury - South's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 38-year median age in Sunbury - South is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and is similarly equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - South has a higher concentration of 65 - 74 residents (9.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (13.2%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.4% to 6.7% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.9% to 13.2%. By 2041, Sunbury - South is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 76% (1,755 people), reaching 4,053 from 2,297.