Sunbury - South

Sunbury - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Sunbury - South's population is around 19,415 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 4,430 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,985 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,960 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 2,173 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 468 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury - South's growth rate of 29.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (8.9%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 63.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing Sunbury - South in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation. The area is expected to increase by 13,730 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 57.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Sunbury - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Sunbury - South recorded approximately 362 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1813 homes were approved, with an additional 240 approved in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of 1.2 people moving to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five financial years.

The market exhibits good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost value of $322,000. In FY-26 alone, there have been $5.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - South has slightly more development activity, with a 30.0% increase above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. The development activity is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 36 people per dwelling approval, Sunbury - South shows characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunbury - South is expected to grow by 11,134 residents through to 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Sunbury - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Redstone Town Centre, Plumpton Aquatic and Leisure Centre, The Sunbury Gateway, and Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Sunbury - South has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Sunbury - South has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.3% in September 2025, which is 0.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Sunbury - South is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical employs only 5.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8%, labour force increased by 2.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project an expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Sunbury - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $57,053 with an average income of $67,218. This is slightly above the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ended June 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $63,991 (median) and $75,392 (average). From the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes in Sunbury - South cluster around the 51st percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that the income bracket of $1,500 to $2,999 dominates with 35.7% of residents (6,931 people), which is similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury - South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This is compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury - South was at 31.0%, similar to Melbourne metro's rate. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (43.0%) or rented (26.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,800, surpassing Melbourne metro's average of $1,750. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure stood at $351 compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Sunbury - South's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury - South has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.9% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Sunbury - South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (25.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.3% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury - South has 106 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 individual routes, facilitating 9,096 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 286 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,299 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury - South is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury-South faces significant health challenges with a notably higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to averages, particularly among older age groups.

Approximately 53% (~10,367 people) of the total population has private health cover. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.3 and 9.7% of residents respectively. Only 63.8% of residents claim to be completely free of medical ailments compared to 65.7% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.1% (3,506 people) compared to the 15.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require particular attention due to these challenges.

In terms of cultural diversity, Sunbury - South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury-South's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 80.1% of residents born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 87.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 51.8%. Judaism is overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

The top three ancestral groups are English (26.7%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.0%). Notably, Maltese (2.7%) Croatian (1.1%), and Hungarian (0.4%) populations are higher than regional averages of 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.3% respectively.

Sunbury - South's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Sunbury-South is 38 years, similar to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (9.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 75-84 has increased from 5.4% to 6.3%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 12.8% to 12.2%. By 2041, Sunbury-South's age composition is expected to change significantly, with the 55-64 age group projected to grow by 76%, reaching 3,709 people from its current total of 2,104.