Sunbury - South

Sunbury - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Sunbury - South's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 18,353. This figure represents a 22.5% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,985. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,819 in June 2024 and an additional 2,177 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 442 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury - South's growth exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing Sunbury - South in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. The area is expected to increase by 13,730 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 66.5% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Sunbury - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Sunbury - South has recorded approximately 362 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,813 homes have been approved, with an additional 296 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.2 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $322,000. This financial year has seen $5.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the residential character of the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - South has slightly more development, with 30.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

The development activity is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 36 people per dwelling approval, Sunbury - South shows characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Sunbury - South is expected to grow by 12,196 residents through to 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth; however, buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Sunbury - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 35 projects that could affect the area. Notable projects include Plumpton Aquatic and Leisure Centre, The Sunbury Gateway, Redstone Town Centre, and Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group. Below list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Sunbury - South has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Sunbury - South has a skilled workforce with key industries including construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. It has an unemployment rate of 4.3% as of September 2025, which is 0.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.8%.

There are 9,318 residents in work and workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A high proportion, 25.8%, of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The area has a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services employ only 5.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8%, labour force grew by 2.0%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced higher employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023 shows Sunbury - South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $60,683 and an average income of $71,490. Nationally, the averages were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%, median income is estimated at approximately $65,689 and average income at $77,388. The 2021 Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Sunbury - South are around the 51st percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 35.7% of residents (6,552 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to the surrounding region at 32.8%. Housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile. Sunbury - South's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury - South stood at 31.0%, similar to Melbourne metro. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 43.0%, while rented dwellings made up 26.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than the Melbourne metro average of $2,000 and the Australian average of $1,863. The median weekly rent was $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $390 and Australia's national figure of $375.

Sunbury - South has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.9% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Sunbury - South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In the area, university qualification rates are significantly lower than those of Greater Melbourne, at 22.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualifications, with 14.9% of residents holding one, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent among residents aged 15+, with 38.0% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 25.9%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.3%), secondary education (7.5%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury - South has 106 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 13 different routes, facilitating 7,198 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents, on average, residing 285 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most commuters travel outward, predominantly by car (90%), with train use at 6%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a significant 25.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 1,028 trips daily, equating to roughly 67 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops relative to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Sunbury - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury South faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (around 10,075 people). The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.3 and 9.7% of residents respectively. However, 63.8% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,387 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Sunbury - South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury-South's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 80.1% born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 87.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion at 51.8%. Judaism, at 0.2%, is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (26.7%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.0%), all higher than regional averages. Notably, Maltese (2.7%) Croatian (1.1%), and Hungarian (0.4%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional figures of 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively.

Sunbury - South's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Sunbury - South is 38 years, which is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (9.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.2%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 5.4% to 6.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 13.9% to 13.2%. By 2041, Sunbury - South is projected to experience significant changes in its age composition, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 76%, reaching 4,053 people from the current figure of 2,297.