Sunbury - South

Sunbury - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Sunbury - South's population is around 19,415 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 14,985 people, a rise of 4,430 individuals (29.6%). The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population figures: 16,960 as of June 2024 and an additional 2,173 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 468 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Sunbury - South's growth rate of 29.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive influences.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods to population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, placing Sunbury - South in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 13,730 persons based on the latest population numbers, representing a total increase of 57.4% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Sunbury - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Sunbury - South has recorded approximately 362 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 1813 homes were approved, with an additional 191 approved so far in FY26. The average population growth for each dwelling built over these five years was 1.2 people per year.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions. The average construction cost value for new homes was $322,000. In the current financial year, there have been $5.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury - South has slightly more development, at 30.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. The national comparison shows strong developer confidence in the location due to substantially higher activity. New developments consist of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Sunbury - South's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 36 people per dwelling approval, the area exhibits growth characteristics. Looking ahead, Sunbury - South is expected to grow by approximately 11,134 residents through to 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Sunbury - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 35 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Redstone Town Centre, Diggers Rest Level Crossing Removal Project - Old Calder Highway & Watsons Road, Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group, and The Village Diggers Rest Retail and Entertainment Precinct. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Sunbury - South has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Sunbury - South has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 4.4% as of June 2025. There were 9,207 residents employed during this period, which is 0.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.6%.

The workforce participation rate in Sunbury - South is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. However, there is a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 5.4% of local workers, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, while the labour force grew by 4.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that Sunbury - South may experience local employment growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Sunbury - South had a median taxpayer income of $57,053 and an average income of $67,218. Nationally, the median was $54,892 and the average was $73,761 in Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $63,991 and average income $75,392, based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census indicates household incomes in Sunbury - South are at the 52nd percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 35.7% of residents (6,931 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. Residents allocate 15.6% of their income to housing costs, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile. Sunbury - South's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury - South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury - South was at 31.0%, aligning with Melbourne metro's level, while mortgaged dwellings were at 43.0% and rented ones at 26.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,800, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,750. The median weekly rent figure in Sunbury - South was recorded at $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Sunbury - South's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury - South has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.9% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.1%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Sunbury - South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (25.9%). Educational participation is high at 28.2%, including primary education (10.3%), secondary education (7.5%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Sunbury - South's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,253 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1028) and balanced educational opportunities. The area has three primary schools and one K-12 school, but limited local school capacity (6.7 places per 100 residents vs 14.5 regionally) means many families seek schooling in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 106 active transport stops in Sunbury - South region, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 individual routes, facilitating 9,096 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 286 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,299 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 85 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Sunbury - South is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury-South faces significant health challenges with a notably higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to average, particularly amongst older age groups.

Approximately 53% (~10,367 people) of its total population has private health cover. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.3 and 9.7% of residents respectively. However, 63.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.7% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.1% (3,506 people), compared to 15.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes amongst seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Sunbury - South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury-South showed above-average cultural diversity, with 19.9% of its population born overseas and 12.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Sunbury-South, accounting for 51.8%. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.2% versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (26.7%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.0%). Notably, Maltese (2.7%) was slightly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 2.8%, as were Croatian (1.1% vs 1.0%) and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%).

Sunbury - South's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Sunbury-South is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (9.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 5.4% to 6.3%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 12.8% to 12.2%. By 2041, Sunbury-South's age composition is expected to shift significantly, with the 55-64 age group projected to grow by 76%, reaching 3,709 people from 2,104.