Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunbury's population is estimated at around 44,288 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 5,437 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 38,851. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 42,050 in June 2024, along with 2,999 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 335 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate of 14.0% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages. Interstate migration contributed approximately 39.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted for the suburb over the period to 2041, with an expected expansion of 30,067 persons, reflecting a total increase of 62.6%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Sunbury shows around 592 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 2,961 homes. As of FY-26439 approvals have been recorded. The average new resident growth rate per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is 0.9. This suggests that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $378,000. In FY-26, $9.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has 17.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 94th percentile nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence despite recent intensification of activity. New development consists predominantly of detached houses (91.0%) and townhouses or apartments (9.0%), maintaining Sunbury's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

With around 53 people per dwelling approval, Sunbury exhibits growth area characteristics. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunbury is projected to gain approximately 27,747 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Sunbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Sunbury South Town Centre, Everley Estate, Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group, and Davis Vineyard House & Land Estate. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunbury has been broadly consistent with national averages

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, with estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 24,028 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 0.8% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, a moderate 25.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 1.7% alongside labour force increasing by 1.8%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Sunbury. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Sunbury's median income is $57,280 and average income is $67,670. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Sunbury would be approximately $62,006 (median) and $73,253 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 37.1% of residents (16,430 people). After housing costs, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses. Sunbury's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was at 31.4%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (47.8%) or rented (20.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Sunbury was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000 and Australia's average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Sunbury was $361, lower than Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Sunbury has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 75.8% of all households, including 36.3% that are couples with children, 25.6% that are couples without children, and 12.9% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 21.9% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 21.2%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (27.5%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 243 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 13 routes, providing 7,198 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 267 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 91%, with an average of 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 25% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 1,028 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but slightly more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover is held by approximately 54% of Sunbury's total population (~23,733 people), which is higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.2 and 9.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. Sunbury has 17.0% of residents aged 65 and over (7,528 people), which is higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.4% being citizens, and 90.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Sunbury, comprising 50.9% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English made up 27.2% of Sunbury's population, higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian comprised 26.9%, above the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish constituted 9.3%. Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 2.7%, compared to the regional average of 1.1%, Croatian at 0.9% (regional: 0.7%), and Polish at 0.9% (regional: 0.8%).

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury was close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years as of the latest data. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury had a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and recent data, the population aged 35-44 grew from 13.5% to 15.0%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 4.3% to 5.6%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 declined from 13.6% to 12.3%, and those aged 25-34 decreased from 14.1% to 13.0%. By the year 2041, Sunbury's age composition is expected to shift notably. The demographic change will be led by the 45-54 age group, which is projected to grow by 77%, reaching 9,663 people from the current 5,447.