Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates, the Sunbury statistical area's population is estimated at around 44,255 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 5,404 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 38,851. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 42,050 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 2,977 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 334 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate of 13.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.7%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 39.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Considering these projections, exceptional growth is predicted over the period 2025 to 2041, with the Sunbury (SA2) expected to expand by 30,064 persons, reflecting an increase of 62.8% in total population over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Sunbury recorded around 592 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 2,961 homes. As of FY-26439 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 new residents arrive per new home constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction value for new properties is $378,000.

In FY-26, $9.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development compared to Greater Melbourne, where Sunbury has 17.0% less new development per person. However, Sunbury ranks among the 94th percentile nationally for development activity, indicating robust developer interest. Recent construction comprises 91.0% standalone homes and 9.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature. With around 53 people per dwelling approval, Sunbury exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunbury is expected to grow by 27,776 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Sunbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Sunbury South Town Centre, Everley Estate, Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group, and Davis Vineyard House & Land Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Sunbury demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.9%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the past year, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 24,020 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is at 66.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Notably, construction employs 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, while labour force grew by 1.8%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to November 25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a national expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Sunbury suburb's income level is approximately average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Sunbury's median income among taxpayers is $57,280 and average income stands at $67,670, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $62,006 (median) and $73,253 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate largest segment comprises 37.1% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (16,418 residents), mirroring region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses and area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was 31.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.8% and rented ones at 20.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,750. Median weekly rent in Sunbury was $361, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 75.8% of all households, including 36.3% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 21.9% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 39.8% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (27.5%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.0% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 243 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. There are 13 different routes serving these stops, which together facilitate 7,198 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Sunbury is rated as good, with residents on average being located 267 meters from the nearest stop. Across all routes, there are an average of 1,028 trips per day, equating to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 54%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area and representing about 23,716 people. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Sunbury, affecting 10.2% and 9.9% of residents respectively. About 64.7% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.7% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 16.5% of Sunbury's population was aged 65 and over (7,302 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those for the broader population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury's cultural diversity is below average, with 82.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.4% being citizens, and 90.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunbury, accounting for 50.9% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.1% versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.2%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.3%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Maltese at 2.7% in Sunbury versus 2.8% regionally, Croatian at 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Polish also at 0.9% versus 1.0%.

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (12.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the age group 35-44 has increased from 13.5% to 14.8% of Sunbury's population, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 12.5%. By 2041, Sunbury is projected to experience significant changes in its age structure, with the 45-54 group expected to grow by 75%, reaching 9,663 people from the current figure of 5,531.