Sunbury

Sunbury lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunbury's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 45,443. This reflects an increase of 6,592 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 38,851. The change is inferred from the resident population of 42,284, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 2,977 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 343 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Sunbury's growth rate of 17.0% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average of 8.9%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 39.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 30,057 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 58.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury recorded approximately 592 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years ending FY-25, totalling an estimated 2,963 homes. As of FY-26278 approvals have been registered. On average, 0.9 new residents arrived per year for each new home between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these properties was $378,000, below the regional average.

In FY-26, Sunbury has registered $10.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has 17.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 94th percentile nationally, indicating robust developer interest. Recent construction comprises 91.0% standalone homes and 9.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature. With around 53 people per dwelling approval, Sunbury exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunbury is projected to grow by 26,581 residents through to 2041. If development rates remain constant, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Sunbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 38 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Sunbury Square Town Centre, Everley Estate, Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group, and Davis Vineyard House & Land Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Sunbury demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.2%.

As of June 2025, 24,142 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was at 66.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction had particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

In contrast, professional & technical employed only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offered limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between Jun-24 and Jul-25, employment increased by 4.2%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 estimated national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Sunbury's median income among taxpayers was $57,308 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $67,702 during the same period. This compares to figures for Greater Melbourne of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $64,277 (median) and $75,935 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 37.1% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (16,859 residents), mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses. Sunbury's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was 31.4%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. The remainder of dwellings were either mortgaged (47.8%) or rented (20.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,750. Median weekly rent in Sunbury was $361, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 75.8% of all households, including 36.3% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 21.9% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (14.4%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (27.5%). Educational participation is high at 28.3%, with 10.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

There are 15 schools serving 7,170 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1026) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 9 primary, 4 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 242 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus services. There are 16 routes in total, offering 9,096 weekly passenger trips combined.

The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically living 268 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 1,299 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but to a slightly higher degree among older residents.

Approximately 54% of Sunbury's total population (~24,357 people) has private health cover. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.2% and 9.9% of residents respectively. 64.7% of Sunbury residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.7% in Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 16.5% of Sunbury's population is aged 65 and over (7,498 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury showed lower cultural diversity, with 82.4% born in Australia, 90.4% being citizens, and 90.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion at 50.9%. Judaism, at 0.1%, was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%.

Top ancestry groups were English (27.2%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.3%). Maltese (2.7%) was notably higher than regional levels (2.8%), as were Croatian (0.9%) and Polish (0.9%) populations compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 13.5% to 14.8%, while the proportion of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 13.6% to 12.5%. By 2041, Sunbury's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 70%, reaching 9,660 people from the current 5,680.