Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of Sunbury was approximately 44,288 as of Feb 2026. This marks a rise of 5,437 individuals (14.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 38,851. AreaSearch estimated the resident population at 42,050 following analysis of June 2024 ABS ERP data release and validated an additional 2,999 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 335 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate surpassed both national (9.9%) and state averages, driven primarily by interstate migration contributing around 39.0% of total population gains. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, it uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth placing Sunbury in the top 10 percent of Australian statistical areas, with an expected expansion of 30,198 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 63.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Sunbury experienced around 592 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 2,960 homes were approved, with another 507 approved in FY-26. On average, each new dwelling attracted 0.9 new residents per year over the past five financial years.

The average construction value of new dwellings was $378,000. In FY-26, $9.9 million in commercial approvals were registered. Sunbury's construction activity is 18.0% lower than Greater Melbourne but ranks among the 94th percentile nationally. New development consists of 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% townhouses or apartments.

Sunbury has around 53 people per dwelling approval, indicating growth area characteristics. Population forecasts suggest Sunbury will gain 27,960 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Sunbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Sunbury South Town Centre, Everley Estate, Bloomdale Estate developed by AVID Property Group, and Davis Vineyard House & Land Estate. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunbury exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.3% as of December 2025. This rate is 1.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Sunbury is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 25.0% of residents worked from home. The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has a particularly high presence with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.3%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, Sunbury's labour force decreased by 0.7% alongside a 0.0% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Sunbury. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Sunbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Sunbury's median income is $57,280 and average income is $67,670. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Sunbury are approximately $62,006 (median) and $73,253 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 37.1% of residents (16,430 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket. After housing costs, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses. Sunbury's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was 31.4%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (47.8%) or rented (20.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000 and the Australian average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Sunbury was $361, lower than Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Sunbury has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 75.8 percent of all households, including 36.3 percent couples with children, 25.6 percent couples without children, and 12.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.2 percent, with lone person households at 21.9 percent and group households making up 2.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (27.5%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.0% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 243 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 13 routes, collectively providing 7,198 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 267 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode at 91%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 25% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 1,028 trips per day, equating to approximately 29 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across the board, with a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (~23,733 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, impacting 10.2 and 9.9% of residents respectively. 64.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 17.0% of residents aged 65 and over (7,528 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.4% being citizens, and 90.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Sunbury, comprising 50.9% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.2%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 2.7% in Sunbury versus 1.1% regionally, Croatian at 0.9% versus 0.7%, and Polish at 0.9% versus 0.8%.

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 13.5% to 15.0%, while the 75-84 age group has risen from 4.3% to 5.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 13.6% to 12.3% and the 25-34 age group has dropped from 14.1% to 13.0%. By 2041, Sunbury's population is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 78%, reaching 9,686 people from 5,447.