Sunbury

Population growth drivers in Sunbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Sunbury is around 43,627. This figure represents a rise of 4,776 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 38,851. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 43,550 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 3,109 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 330 persons per square kilometer. Sunbury's growth rate of 12.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state average of 9.3% and the national average, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 39.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Sunbury is expected to grow by 29,094 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 66.5% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Sunbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Sunbury averaged around 592 new dwelling approvals annually. Approximately 2,960 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 663 approved so far in FY-26. On average, one new resident arrived per year for each new home approved during these years, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand.

The average construction cost value of new homes was $378,000. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $9.9 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in the area. Comparatively, Sunbury shows 17.0% lower construction activity per person relative to Greater Melbourne but ranks among the 94th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This level reflects strong developer confidence in the area.

Recent construction comprises 91.0% detached dwellings and 9.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Sunbury's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. As of the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Sunbury is projected to gain approximately 29,017 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the area.

Sunbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 37 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include Everley Estate, Bloomdale Estate by AVID Property Group, Davis Vineyard House & Land Estate, and The Sunbury Gateway. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Sunbury ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Sunbury has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.3%. Employment stability has been relative over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, there are 23,957 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 1.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation is on par with Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A moderate 25.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Notably, construction employs at 1.4 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area may offer limited employment opportunities locally, indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.0%, while labour force decreased by 0.7%, causing unemployment rate to fall by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Sunbury. These projections estimate local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, applying industry-specific projections to Sunbury's employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Sunbury's income level is approximately average nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Sunbury is $57,280 and the average income stands at $67,670, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Sunbury would be approximately $62,790 (median) and $74,180 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Sunbury cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. The largest income bracket comprises 37.1% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (16,185 residents), mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Sunbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunbury's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunbury was at 31.4%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.8% and rented ones at 20.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Sunbury was $361, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunbury's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunbury has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 75.8% of all households, including 36.3% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.2%, with lone person households at 21.9% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Sunbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (27.5%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.0% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunbury has 243 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 13 routes, collectively facilitating 7,198 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically living 267 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound due to Sunbury's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 91%, with an average of 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 25% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 1,028 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to Sunbury's location centrepoint.

Health performance in Sunbury is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Sunbury faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across the board but slightly more so among older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (~23,379 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but trailing Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.2 and 9.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.7% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (7,285 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Sunbury ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunbury's population was found to have low cultural diversity, with 82.4% born in Australia, 90.4% being citizens, and 90.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion, comprising 50.9% of Sunbury residents. Notably, Judaism made up 0.1%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

Ancestry-wise, English (27.2%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.3%) were the top groups, exceeding regional averages. Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Maltese at 2.7% vs region's 1.1%, Croatian at 0.9% vs 0.7%, and Polish at 0.9% vs 0.8%.

Sunbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunbury is 38 years, closely matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunbury has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.1%) but fewer individuals aged 25-34 (13.5%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35-44 age group has risen from 13.5% to 14.9%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 4.3% to 5.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group decreased from 13.6% to 12.3%. By 2041, Sunbury's population is projected to experience significant shifts in its age structure, with the 45-54 cohort expected to grow by 81%, reaching 9,714 people from 5,366.