Darley

Darley lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Darley's estimated population is around 9,610 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 420 people (4.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,190 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,409 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 274 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 356 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Darley has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%, outpacing the metropolitan area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with Darley expected to grow by 2,144 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 24.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Darley among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Darley averaged around 39 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 197 homes were approved, with another 14 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an estimated 5.7 new residents arriving annually per dwelling constructed during this period.

The demand for housing significantly outpaces supply, which typically increases competition among buyers and puts upward pressure on prices. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $431,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. In the current financial year, there have been $524,000 in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Darley shows substantially reduced construction activity compared to Greater Melbourne, with 84.0% fewer new properties per person.

This scarcity of new properties typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 87.0% standalone homes and 13.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Darley reflects a low density area, with around 197 people per approval. Looking ahead, Darley is expected to grow by 2,379 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth in the area.

Darley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nine projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area, with key projects including Summerfield North Estate, Darling Darley Estate, Orchard Square Bacchus Marsh Estate, and Bacchus Marsh Central. The following details those considered most relevant.

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The employment environment in Darley shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Darley has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.1% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment growth over the same period was estimated at 5.1%. As of June 2025, Darley had 5,713 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.6% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Darley was 67.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among Darley residents were construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

The area had a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 5.0% of Darley's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Analysis of SALM and ABS data for the wider area showed that over a 12-month period ending in an unspecified month, employment increased by 5.1%, while the labour force grew by 5.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Darley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though these estimates are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that income in Darley is higher than average nationally. The median assessed income is $55,396 and the average income stands at $69,851. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $62,132 (median) and $78,345 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Darley cluster around the 57th percentile nationally. Distribution data indicates that the largest segment comprises 34.2% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,286 residents), similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Darley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Darley's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.2% houses and 6.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Darley was at 28.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 54.0% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Darley was $320, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Darley's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Darley features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.0% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.3% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

Educational attainment in Darley aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 29.0%. Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.2% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary.

The area has two primary schools, Darley Primary School and Pentland Primary School, serving a total of 1,031 students. These schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. There are 10.7 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 16.2, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 994) with balanced educational opportunities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Darley has 27 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two routes that together facilitate 1080 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents living an average of 395 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 154 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Darley is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Darley faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among its residents, particularly among older age cohorts to a higher degree compared to younger ones. Approximately 54% of Darley's total population (~5,231 people) has private health cover, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 50.8%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 9.8 and 9.3% of residents respectively. A total of 66.0% of Darley residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.7% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, 14.1% of Darley's residents are aged 65 and over (1,355 people), which is higher than the 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors in Darley present some challenges that require more attention compared to the broader population.

Darley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Darley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.6% of its population born in Australia, 90.7% being citizens, and 92.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Darley, comprising 45.8% of people. However, the most significant overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which made up 1.3% of Darley's population compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (29.8%), English (28.9%), and Irish (8.1%), all substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 18.6%, 16.9%, and not specified. Notably, Maltese, Hungarian, and Dutch ethnicities were overrepresented in Darley compared to the region, at 2.8% vs 5.1%, 0.4% vs 0.3%, and 1.9% vs 0.8% respectively.

Darley's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Darley's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne and closely resembling Australia's figure of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 14.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 12.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group rose from 3.3% to 4.7%, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 13.7% to 15.0%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group decreased from 8.7% to 8.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Darley's age structure. Notably, the 45 to 54 group is projected to grow by 41%, adding 525 people to reach 1,813 from 1,287. The 0 to 4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 7%, an increase of 38 people.