Carlisle

Population growth drivers in Carlisle are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

According to evaluations of recent ABS population statistics for the surrounding region combined with new address validation data from AreaSearch, the suburb of Carlisle is estimated to have a population of approximately 7,394 as of May 2026. This indicates an expansion of 661 individuals (9.8%) compared to the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 6,733 individuals. This shift is calculated from the estimated resident population of 7,394, which was modeled by AreaSearch using the ABS June 2025 ERP release alongside 19 validated new addresses registered since the Census. Based on these numbers, the suburb's population density stands at 2,911 persons per square kilometer, which ranks within the top quartile of all Australian locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The growth rate of 9.8% since the 2021 census paced ahead of the national benchmark of 9.3%, representing a leading growth figure for the broader region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth, accounting for approximately 79.0% of the total population gains in recent times.

Projections developed by the ABS and Geoscience Australia for individual SA2 regions, published in 2024 using 2022 as a baseline, have been adopted by AreaSearch. For SA2 regions lacking this data, and to model growth patterns beyond 2032, AreaSearch utilizes cohort-specific growth rates from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 with 2022 data. Looking forward, the population growth for statistical areas of this type is projected to exceed national median rates, with Carlisle anticipated to add 1,634 residents by 2041 based on compiled SA2 projections, representing an overall increase of 22.1% across the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carlisle according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approvals allocated from statistical area datasets reveals that Carlisle averages approximately 14 approved dwellings annually, with 72 residential approvals recorded over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 7 approvals registered so far in FY-26. With an average of 5.8 new residents added per constructed dwelling over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, residential supply is lagging behind demand, a trend that typically intensifies buyer competition and drives upward price pressures. Newly approved homes carry an average construction value of $533,000, indicating that development is oriented toward high-end, premium segments. Additionally, commercial development approvals totaling $3.7 million have been registered during this financial year, reinforcing the predominantly residential profile of the suburb.

In comparison to Greater Perth, residential construction activity in Carlisle is substantially lower, sitting 63.0% below the regional per capita average. This restricted pipeline of new properties typically reinforces demand and supports valuations for existing dwellings. This building volume is also below the national benchmark, highlighting the established nature of the suburb and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent approvals consist of 80.0% standalone houses and 20.0% medium and high-density residential structures, preserving the traditional suburban aesthetic of the area with family-oriented spaces for residents wanting more room. With approximately 1227 individuals per dwelling approval, Carlisle represents a highly mature property market.

Demographic projections indicate that Carlisle is set to add 1,634 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. Under the current pace of construction, housing supply may fail to keep pace with this population expansion, potentially intensifying competition among buyers and supporting upward pressure on home prices.

Carlisle has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure, major developments, and zoning decisions are primary drivers of local performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 9 key projects that are expected to influence the suburb. Crucial developments include the Carlisle Station Precinct Redevelopment, Woolworths East Victoria Park, the Oats Street North Residential Development, and the Apartments and Commercial Tenancy project on Bank Street, with the following list detailing those of primary significance.

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The employment environment in Carlisle shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Carlisle features a highly educated local workforce with a strong presence of professional services, an unemployment rate of just 3.5%, and stable employment levels over the prior year, according to AreaSearch aggregations of statistical area datasets. As of March 2026, 4,518 residents are employed, which places the local unemployment rate 0.7% below the Greater Perth figure of 4.2%. Participation in the labor force is typical, standing at 73.3% compared to 70.2% across Greater Perth. Census records show that a low 8.5% of workers worked from home, although this figure should be interpreted in light of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

The local workforce is mainly employed in health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and construction. The representation in professional & technical fields is particularly pronounced, registering at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, retail trade accounts for only 7.7% of local employment, which is lower than the Greater Perth benchmark of 9.3%. The highly residential nature of the suburb means local job availability within its borders is relatively limited, as shown by comparing the count of Census working residents against the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from broader statistical regions, the year ending March 2026 saw local employment grow by 0.4% and the labor force expand by 0.7%, resulting in a 0.3 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Over the same period, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.0% and labor force growth of 2.5%, with its unemployment rate increasing by 0.4 percentage points. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 provide context for future local demand within Carlisle. These five-year and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce composition to estimate growth trends. Nationwide employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though performance varies widely by industry. Extrapolating these industry-specific projections to the employment profile of Carlisle suggests local employment is poised to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, noting that this simple weighted model does not incorporate localized population growth forecasts.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's compilation of the latest postcode-level ATO data released for the 2023 financial year, the suburb of Carlisle recorded a median taxpayer income of $59,458 and an average taxpayer income of $74,500. These figures are elevated on a national scale, comparing to regional medians of $60,748 and averages of $80,248 across Greater Perth. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year, current estimated levels would be approximately $65,957 for the median and $82,643 for the average as of March 2026. Census statistics show that individual income sits in the 75th percentile ($963 weekly), while household income ranks in the 51st percentile. Income distribution is dominated by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, which contains 33.1% of residents (2,447 people), matching the regional trend where 32.0% of the population falls into this range. High housing costs account for 16.8% of income, yet strong earnings keep disposable income levels at the 50th percentile, with a SEIFA income ranking placing the area in the 6th decile.

Carlisle displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Residential dwelling types in Carlisle, recorded at the latest Census, consisted of 66.1% detached houses and 33.9% other dwelling types, including semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative structures, compared to Perth metro's composition of 77.8% detached houses and 22.1% other dwelling types. The home ownership rate in Carlisle stood at 22.4%, which is lower than the Perth metro average, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (33.1%) or renters (44.6%). The median monthly mortgage payment was below the Perth metro average at $1,900, while the median weekly rent stood at $340, compared to Perth metro averages of $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Carlisle's mortgage costs are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, whereas rents remain lower than the national figure of $375.

Carlisle features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households represent the largest segment at 57.1% of all households, consisting of 22.4% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.9% of the total, with lone person households comprising 34.3% and group households representing 8.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Carlisle demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Carlisle is elevated compared to broader regional averages, with 38.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 27.9% across WA and 29.9% in the SA4 region. This educational profile positions the suburb well for knowledge-driven sectors. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 27.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 8.7% and graduate diplomas at 3.1%. Vocational and technical training is also highly represented, with 30.0% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (19.3%).

Participation in education is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal studies. This enrollment includes 8.4% of the population in tertiary education, 6.9% in primary education, and 4.3% attending secondary schools.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of the local transit network shows 42 active public transport stops operating in Carlisle, consisting of a combination of train stations and bus stops. These stops are serviced by 22 different routes, which collectively support 4,236 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is classified as excellent, with residents living an average of 174 meters from their nearest transit stop. Because the suburb is primarily residential, the majority of commuters travel outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the dominant mode at 76%, followed by 10% utilizing trains and 9% traveling by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 cars per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low share of 8.5% of residents work from home, based on the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

Transit service frequency averages 605 daily journeys across all active routes, which translates to roughly 100 weekly services per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Carlisle are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health measures indicate below-average outcomes in Carlisle, according to AreaSearch's evaluation of local mortality figures and the prevalence of chronic illnesses. While general health conditions among the population are relatively typical, they exceed national averages among older age groups. Private health insurance coverage is high, with approximately 57% of the total population (~4,198 people) holding coverage, compared to 59.0% across Greater Perth.

Mental health conditions and arthritis are the most prevalent medical issues reported in the suburb, affecting 9.7% and 6.7% of residents, respectively. A total of 70.4% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Health profiles for working-age residents are typical. Residents aged 65 and over represent 15.3% of the local population (1,131 people). Senior health outcomes present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader local population.

Carlisle was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlisle exhibits a high degree of cultural diversity, with 27.0% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 39.1% born outside of Australia. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 39.2% of the population. The most prominent religious overrepresentation is Islam, which accounts for 4.9% of local residents, compared to 3.2% across Greater Perth.

Regarding parent country of birth, the three largest ancestry groups in Carlisle are English at 25.0%, Australian at 20.3%, and Other at 13.4%. There are also notable differences in the representation of other nationalities, with Welsh ancestry overrepresented at 0.8% of Carlisle (compared to 0.7% regionally), Korean at 1.0% (compared to 0.3%), and French at 0.7% (compared to 0.5%).

Carlisle's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Carlisle is 36 years, which is close to the Greater Perth average of 37 and slightly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Perth region, Carlisle has a higher proportion of residents aged 25 - 34 (23.2%) and a smaller share of children aged 5 - 14 (8.0%). The concentration of residents aged 25 - 34 is notably higher than the national average of 14.6%. Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age bracket has expanded from 21.7% to 23.2% of the population, whereas the 45 to 54 bracket has contracted from 11.6% to 10.4%. Demographic models project significant shifts in Carlisle's age structure by 2041, with the 25 to 34 age group expected to show the strongest growth of 17%, adding 293 residents to reach 2,009, while the 5 to 14 age group is projected to grow by just 3% (17 people).