Carlisle

Population growth drivers in Carlisle are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Carlisle is around 7,844, reflecting an increase of 1,111 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was reported as 6,733. This growth represents a 16.5% increase. According to AreaSearch, this figure is inferred from the resident population estimate of 7,558 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,088 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlisle in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate exceeded both the national average (9.9%) and state figures, marking it as a growth leader in the region.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch utilises growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population dynamics forecast a significant increase for Carlisle, with an expected growth of 1,987 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 22.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Carlisle when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Carlisle has around 19 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 95 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 8.5 new residents per year for every home built during this period.

The demand for housing significantly outpaces supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $533,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In terms of commercial development, $3.7 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting limited focus in this area compared to residential. Compared to Greater Perth, Carlisle has significantly less development activity, at 53.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

Furthermore, this activity is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 484 people per dwelling approval, Carlisle shows a developed market. Future projections show Carlisle adding approximately 1,791 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Carlisle has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified nine relevant projects: Carlisle Station Precinct Redevelopment, Woolworths East Victoria Park, Oats Street North Residential Development, Apartments and Commercial Tenancy - Bank Street. These are key projects expected to have notable influence on the area.

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The employment environment in Carlisle shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Carlisle has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 3.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of September 2025, 4731 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.7% below Greater Perth's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation was fairly standard at 75.4%, compared to Greater Perth's 71.6%. Only 8.5% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. The area has a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

In contrast, retail trade employs only 7.7% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 9.3%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, labour force increased by 2.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 2.9%, labour force growth of 3.0%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carlisle's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Carlisle had a median income among taxpayers of $59,458 and an average level of $74,500. These figures are high nationally compared to Greater Perth's median of $60,748 and average of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year ended June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $65,178 (median) and $81,667 (average). Census data shows personal income ranks at the 75th percentile ($963 weekly), while household income is at the 51st percentile. Income analysis reveals that 33.1% of residents (2,596 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, reflecting regional patterns where 32.0% occupy this range. Housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carlisle displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlisle's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.1% houses and 33.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Perth metro had 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlisle was at 22.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (33.1%) or rented (44.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carlisle was $1,900, lower than Perth metro's average of $1,907. The median weekly rent figure in Carlisle was recorded at $340, compared to Perth metro's $350. Nationally, Carlisle's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Carlisle features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 57.1% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 42.9%, consisting of 34.3% lone person households and 8.3% group households. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Carlisle demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Carlisle's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 38.8% possess university qualifications, compared to 27.9% in Western Australia (WA) and 29.9% in the Small Area 4 (SA4) region. The area has a significant educational advantage, with bachelor degrees being the most common at 27.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 8.7% and graduate diplomas at 3.1%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (19.3%).

Educational participation is high in Carlisle, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in tertiary education, 6.9% in primary education, and 4.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlisle has 42 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 22 routes that facilitate 4,236 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 174 meters to the nearest stop. Primarily residential, Carlisle sees most residents commuting outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 76%, followed by train at 10% and bus at 9%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 605 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 100 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Carlisle are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Carlisle's health indicators show below-average outcomes, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is very high in Carlisle, with approximately 57% of the total population (~4,453 people), compared to 59.0% across Greater Perth. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.7 and 6.7% of residents respectively. 70.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. Carlisle has 15.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,239 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Carlisle was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlisle has a high level of cultural diversity, with 27.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 39.1% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlisle, comprising 39.2% of people. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Perth, making up 4.9% of Carlisle's population versus 3.2%.

The top three ancestry groups in Carlisle are English (25.0%), Australian (20.3%), and Other (13.4%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Korean (1.0%) populations are higher than the regional averages of 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, while French is slightly overrepresented at 0.7% compared to the region's 0.5%.

Carlisle's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carlisle's median age in 2021 was 36 years, closely matching Greater Perth's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Perth, Carlisle had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.1%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds was significantly higher than the national average of 14.4%. Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of Carlisle's population aged 75-84 increased from 4.2% to 5.3%, while the proportion aged 45-54 decreased from 11.6% to 10.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Carlisle's age profile. The number of residents aged 65-74 is projected to grow by 46%, adding 308 people and reaching a total of 983. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 35-44 is expected to increase by a modest 2% (20 people).