Blackwall (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Blackwall reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Blackwall (NSW) was around 1,940 as of May 2026. This figure reflects a decrease of 1 person from the 2021 Census total of 1,941 people, indicating a 0.1% decline since then. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,938 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 12 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,701 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. While Blackwall experienced a slight decrease since the census, the SA3 area as a whole saw a growth rate of 2.6%, suggesting divergent trends within the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods for the suburb of Blackwall (NSW).

AreaSearch projections for each SA2 area, released by ABS/Geoscience Australia in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, are adopted for covered areas. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb of Blackwall (NSW)'s population is expected to contract by 40 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group which is projected to increase by 64 people over this period.

The level of residential development activity in Blackwall is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Blackwall has received approximately 2 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 14 homes. As of FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $445,000, which is higher than regional norms, indicating quality-focused development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blackwall shows significantly reduced construction levels (62.0% below the regional average per person), supporting stronger demand and values for established homes. This level is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the existing housing composition (currently 71.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 1300 people per approval, Blackwall demonstrates a mature, established area. Population projections showing stability or decline suggest reduced housing demand pressures in the future, benefiting potential buyers.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Blackwall should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Blackwall has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect the region: Blackwall Road Interchange Upgrades, Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Rd, Gable Glass Room on Bream Road, and Jabiru Ettalong Beach. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Blackwall demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Blackwall has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%. As of December 2025948 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 0.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 59.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A high 36.2% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents was concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area had notably high concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 8.6% of Blackwall's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 3.7% alongside labour force increasing by 3.6%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Blackwall's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Blackwall's income level is above the national average according to AreaSearch data from the ATO for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Blackwall is $53,531 and the average income stands at $71,974. This compares with Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Blackwall are approximately $59,055 (median) and $79,402 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Blackwall rank modestly between the 32nd and 34th percentiles. The largest income segment comprises 31.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (613 residents), consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Blackwall, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 28th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Blackwall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Blackwall, according to the latest Census evaluation, 71.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 28.9% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In contrast, Sydney metropolitan areas had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackwall stood at 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented ones at 31.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,024, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Blackwall was $390, compared to $470 in Sydney metropolitan areas. Nationally, Blackwall's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Blackwall features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.9% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational achievement in Blackwall places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's university qualification rate is 20.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 30.1%. Educational participation is high, with 26.2% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in primary, 6.1% in secondary, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blackwall has 31 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 23 different routes that together offer 660 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 85 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 83% of residents, while train use stands at 10%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 36.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 94 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Blackwall is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Blackwall faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (around 1,074 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. Mental health issues and arthritis were found to be the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.6% and 9.5% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 63.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 24.8% of residents aged 65 and over (481 people), which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

Blackwall ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackwall's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.5% of its population born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 92.2% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Blackwall is Christianity, making up 53.3% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Blackwall, comprising 0.2% compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (31.9%, regional average: 19.0%), Australian (28.6%, regional average: 17.8%), and Irish (9.1%). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Spanish (Blackwall: 1.0%, regional: 0.6%), Hungarian (Blackwall: 0.5%, regional: 0.3%), and Russian (Blackwall: 0.5%, regional: 0.4%).

Blackwall hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Blackwall is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blackwall has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (13.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the age group of 75 to 84 years has increased from 8.7% to 10.1%, while the age group of 85 and above has decreased from 2.3% to 1.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Blackwall's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 28%, reaching 251 people from 195. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 93% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. In contrast, both the 65-74 and 55-64 age groups are projected to decrease in number.