Blackwall (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Blackwall reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Blackwall's population is estimated at around 1,990, reflecting an increase of 49 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 1,941. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, showing a resident population of 1,978. The suburb's population density stands at 1,745 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Blackwall's growth rate of 2.5% since the Census exceeded the SA3 area's rate of 2.3%, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas.

By 2041, projections indicate an overall population decline of 12 persons, but specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 group are expected to grow by 75 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Blackwall, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Blackwall received around 3 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 15 homes. In FY26 so far, 4 approvals have been recorded. Over these 5 years (FY21-FY25), an average of 1.7 people moved to Blackwall for each dwelling built. However, this figure increased to 5.6 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. The average construction value of new homes is $445,000, aligning with broader regional development.

This financial year has seen $6.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Blackwall's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blackwall shows significantly reduced construction activity (59.0% below the regional average per person), which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated recently. Nationally, Blackwall's development levels are also below average, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium to high-density housing, offering a mix of opportunities across price brackets.

The location has approximately 493 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area with stable or declining population projections, reducing future housing demand pressures and benefiting potential buyers.

Blackwall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact the area, including Blackwall Road Interchange Improvements, Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Rd, construction of a glass room on Bream Road, and development at Jabiru Ettalong Beach. These are the key initiatives likely to have significant influence.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Blackwall shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Blackwall has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% as of June 2025.

This figure is consistent with Greater Sydney's rate but lags behind in workforce participation (53.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%). Key industries employing residents are healthcare & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented at 8.6%, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.6% while labour force grew by 3.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force increase by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blackwall's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Blackwall was $53,531 and average income was $71,974. This is higher than the national averages of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). In Greater Sydney, median income was $56,994 and average income was $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Blackwall are approximately $60,281 (median) and $81,050 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Blackwall rank between the 32nd and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 31.6% of locals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 28th percentile. Blackwall's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Blackwall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Blackwall, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.2% houses and 28.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackwall was at 36.7%, similar to the Sydney metro level, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented dwellings at 31.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Blackwall was $2,024, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure for Blackwall was $390, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Blackwall's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,024 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $390 compared to the national figure of $375.

Blackwall features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.9% of all households, consisting of 20.6% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in Blackwall places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's university qualification rate is 20.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (30.1%). Current educational participation is high at 26.2%, with 9.9% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 31 active stops operating in Blackwall, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 23 unique routes, facilitating a total of 655 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 85 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 93 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Blackwall is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Blackwall, with high prevalence of common health conditions among both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~1,102 people) have private health cover, which is notably higher than the average rate. Mental health issues affect 9.6% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.5%. However, 63.1% report having no medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 24.1% (479 people), outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Blackwall ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackwall, as per the data, showed lower cultural diversity with 81.5% of its population born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 92.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 53.3% of Blackwall's population. While Judaism comprised a similar proportion to Greater Sydney (0.2%), there were notable differences in ancestry groups: English (31.9%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.1%) were the top three represented.

Further, Spanish (1.0% vs 0.4%), Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.3%), and Russian (0.5% vs 0.4%) groups showed higher representation in Blackwall compared to Greater Sydney.

Blackwall hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Blackwall is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blackwall has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (12.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 8.7% to 9.7% of Blackwall's population. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 11.3% to 10.3%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Blackwall's age structure. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 35%, reaching 261 people from the current 193. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 91% of total population growth, reflecting Blackwall's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 55-64 and 15-24 age groups are projected to decrease in number.