Blackwall (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Blackwall reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Blackwall (NSW) is around 1,963 people. This reflects an increase of 22 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,941 people. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,953 in June 2024, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,721 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Blackwall's growth rate of 1.1% since the census places it within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.2%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, over this period, the suburb of Blackwall (NSW) is expected to experience an overall population decline of 3 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group which is projected to expand by 83 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Blackwall, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Blackwall has experienced around 2 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 14 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.8 people moved to the area for each dwelling built.

However, recent data shows this figure has increased to 15 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting Blackwall's growing popularity and potential supply constraints. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $445,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. When measured against Greater Sydney, Blackwall shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 62.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this level is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. New building activity in Blackwall shows an equal split between detached houses (50.0%) and townhouses or apartments (50.0%). This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 71.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. At around 1315 people per approval, Blackwall shows a mature, established area with a population forecast to gain 9 residents by 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Blackwall has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely affecting this region: Blackwall Road Interchange Upgrades, Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Rd, Gable Glass Room on Bream Road, and Jabiru Ettalong Beach. These are the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Blackwall remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Blackwall has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation). As of September 2025959 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation is lower at 60.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A high proportion of residents work from home (36.2%), potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Blackwall shows strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 8.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, labour force by 3.8%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1%, labour force expand by 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Blackwall. National employment is projected to increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industries. Applying these projections to Blackwall's employment mix indicates local employment should grow by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Blackwall has an income level above the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Blackwall is $53,531, with an average income of $71,974. These figures compare to those for Greater Sydney, which are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since the financial year 2023, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $58,274 and an average income of $78,351 as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Blackwall rank modestly, between the 32nd and 34th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 31.6% of the population (620 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the region where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Blackwall, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 28th percentile. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Blackwall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Blackwall, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.2% houses and 28.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Blackwall was higher at 36.7%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (31.5%) or rented (31.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Blackwall was $2,024, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Blackwall was recorded at $390, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Blackwall's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Blackwall features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.9% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational achievement in Blackwall places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's university qualification rate is 20.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 30.1%. Educational participation is high, with 26.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.9% in primary, 6.1% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blackwall has 31 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 23 different routes that collectively facilitate 660 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 85 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential zone, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 83%, while train usage stands at 10%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in Blackwall.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 36.2% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 94 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Blackwall is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Blackwall faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among younger and older age cohorts alike.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~1,087 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.6% and 9.5% of residents respectively. However, 63.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 25.0% of residents aged 65 and over (490 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. National rankings for the area are broadly in line with the general population.

Blackwall ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackwall's cultural diversity was below average, with 81.5% born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 92.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated Blackwall's religious landscape at 53.3%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

Ancestry-wise, top groups were English (31.9%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.1%). Spanish (1.0%) was notably overrepresented versus regional average of 0.6%. Hungarian (0.5%) and Russian (0.5%) also showed higher representation than their respective regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%.

Blackwall hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Blackwall is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blackwall has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (13.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.9%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75-84 grew from 8.7% to 10.0%, while the 65-74 age group increased from 12.1% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 11.3% to 9.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Blackwall's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 36%, reaching 266 people from 196. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 91% of total population growth, reflecting Blackwall's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 55-64 and 15-24 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.