Blackwall (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Blackwall reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the Blackwall (NSW) statistical area (Lv2)'s population is estimated at around 1,960 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 19 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,941 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,953, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,719 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Blackwall (NSW) (SA2)'s 1.0% growth since census positions it within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to decline by 12 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 75 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Blackwall, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Blackwall has received approximately 2 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 14 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 4 approvals recorded. On average, about 1.8 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this figure has increased to 15 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential supply constraints in the area.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $445,000, which is higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blackwall has significantly reduced construction levels, with 62.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. The current housing mix in Blackwall shows a shift towards higher-density living, with an equal split between detached houses (50.0%) and townhouses or apartments (50.0%). This change from the current housing mix of 71.0% houses reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Blackwall has a population density of around 1315 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Blackwall is projected to gain approximately 10 residents by the year 2041.

With current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Blackwall has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to affect this region: Blackwall Road Interchange Improvements, Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Rd (commencing 2017), Gable Glass Room on Bream Road (completed Aug '16), and Jabiru Ettalong Beach (projected completion Dec '18).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Blackwall remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Blackwall has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, and there has been an estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the past year based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025950 residents are employed while the unemployment rate aligns with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. However, workforce participation lags at 53.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among Blackwall residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented at 8.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.9%, while labour force increased by 3.5%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points in Blackwall. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1%, labour force expand by 2.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blackwall's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these figures are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Blackwall has an income level above the national average according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Blackwall is $53,531 and the average income stands at $71,974. These figures compare to those of Greater Sydney which are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Blackwall's median income would be approximately $58,274 and the average income would be around $78,351 as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Blackwall rank modestly, between the 32nd and 34th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 31.6% of the population (619 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the region where similarly 30.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Blackwall, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 28th percentile. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Blackwall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Blackwall, as recorded at the latest Census, consisted of 71.2% houses and 28.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackwall was at 36.7%, similar to Sydney metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (31.5%) or rented (31.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,024, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure for Blackwall was $390, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Blackwall's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Blackwall features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.9% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in Blackwall places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's university qualification rate is 20.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 30.1%. Educational participation is high, with 26.2% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary (9.9%), secondary (6.1%), and tertiary (3.2%) education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 31 active transport stops operating in Blackwall. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 23 individual routes. They collectively facilitate 660 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 85 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 94 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Blackwall is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Blackwall, with high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is notably high at approximately 55%, covering about 1,085 individuals. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 9.6% and 9.5% of residents respectively. A total of 63.1% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 64.8% across Greater Sydney. Blackwall has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24%, with approximately 470 individuals in this age group.

Blackwall ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackwall's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.5% of its population born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 92.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Blackwall, comprising 53.3% of people in the area. However, Judaism showed an overrepresentation with 0.2%, compared to 0.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.9%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.1%). Notably, Spanish (1.0%) was overrepresented in Blackwall compared to the regional figure of 0.4%. Similarly, Hungarian (0.5%) and Russian (0.5%) showed higher representation than their respective regional percentages of 0.3% and 0.4%.

Blackwall hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Blackwall is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blackwall has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (12.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of Blackwall's population aged 75-84 grew from 8.7% to 9.7%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 decreased from 11.3% to 10.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Blackwall's age structure. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 37 people, reaching 261 from 190. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 90% of total population growth, reflecting Blackwall's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 55-64 and 15-24 age groups are projected to decrease in number.