Empire Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Empire Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Empire Bay is estimated at around 2,419, reflecting a decrease of 103 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population was estimated at 2,396 by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 646 persons per square kilometer. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 72.0% of overall population gains. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Empire Bay is expected to grow by 17 persons by 2041, reflecting a reduction of 0.7% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Empire Bay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Empire Bay experienced around 2 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 14 homes were approved, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Despite a falling population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $855,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $96,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Empire Bay has significantly less development activity, 69.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although recent periods show an increase in development activity. Nationally, this is also below average, suggesting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining Empire Bay's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 680 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Empire Bay should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Empire Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the region: Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, commencing 2015-2016. Other key projects include Jabiru Ettalong Beach, slated for completion in 2018; Gosford Private Hospital redevelopment, starting 2017; and Northside Private Hospital expansion, beginning 2019.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Empire Bay rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Empire Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0%. As of September 2025, 1,245 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.4% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lags at 63.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 33.3% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly prominent with an employment share twice the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 3.0% while labour force grew by 3.3%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, and an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Empire Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Empire Bay suburb was $46,714 with an average of $69,961 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is slightly above national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,853 (median) and $76,160 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Empire Bay's household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly), while personal income sits at the 39th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 31.0% of locals (749 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Empire Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Empire Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.3% houses and 6.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Empire Bay stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 18.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,165, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Empire Bay was recorded at $410, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Empire Bay's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Empire Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 78.3% of all households, including 37.4% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 21.7%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

The educational profile of Empire Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high at 30.2%, comprising primary education (11.0%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (4.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Empire Bay has 27 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by 23 different routes, offering a total of 452 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents living an average of 179 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 91%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 33.3% of residents work from home, which could be due to COVID-19 conditions.

Buses run an average of 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 16 weekly trips per stop.

Empire Bay's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Empire Bay's health data shows positive results, mirroring national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues are seen across all age groups.

Approximately 55% (~1,320 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.4%) and asthma (8.7%). 66.5% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age population health outcomes are typical. Seniors comprise 25.4% (614 people) of the population, higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Senior health outcomes rank above average, aligning with national general population rankings.

Empire Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Empire Bay, surveyed in June 2021, showed low cultural diversity with 86.6% of its population born in Australia and 92.3% being citizens. English was the language spoken at home by 95.5%. Christianity dominated religious beliefs at 53.2%, while Judaism was overrepresented at 0.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

Ancestry-wise, Australians topped at 32.1%, followed by English at 31.0%, and Scottish at 8.6%. Notably, Welsh (0.9%), Maltese (0.9%), and Russian (0.3%) were also overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Empire Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Empire Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 10.1% of the population, a strong representation compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 7.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.8% to 10.1%, and the 85+ cohort has increased from 1.5% to 2.6%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 8.7% to 7.2%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 13.3% to 12.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Empire Bay, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 37 people, reaching 244 from 207. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65 to 74 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.