Empire Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Empire Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Empire Bay is around 2,419, a decrease of 103 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population was estimated at 2,396 by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This reflects a density ratio of 646 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Empire Bay is expected to grow by 11 persons by 2041, reflecting a reduction of 0.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Empire Bay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Empire Bay has experienced approximately 2 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 14 homes were approved, with 0 so far in FY-26. Despite a falling population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $855,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This year, $96,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Empire Bay has significantly less development activity, 69.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though recent periods show an increase in development activity. Nationally, this is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining Empire Bay's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 681 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Empire Bay should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Empire Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely impacting the region: Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, commencing 2021. Key projects also include Jabiru at Ettalong Beach, slated for completion in late 2023; Gosford Private Hospital redevelopment, starting mid-2022; and Northside Private Hospital expansion, planned for early 2024.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Empire Bay rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Empire Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.5%. As of December 2025, 1,256 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.4% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 66.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A high proportion, 33.3%, of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Empire Bay had a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share 2.0 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services were under-represented at 6.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between May-24 and May-25, employment increased by 3.5% while labour force grew by 3.6%, with unemployment remaining largely unchanged. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 14.0% over ten years. Applying these projections to Empire Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Empire Bay is $46,714, with an average of $69,961 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, the median income is slightly lower at $45,800 and the average is $74,632. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income in Empire Bay will be approximately $50,853 and the average will be around $76,160, based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census places Empire Bay's household income at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly) and personal income at the 39th percentile. In Empire Bay, 31.0% of locals (749 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the metropolitan region where 30.9% fall into this range. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income in Empire Bay, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Empire Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Empire Bay's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.3% houses and 6.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This contrasts with Sydney metro's breakdown of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Empire Bay stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged properties at 43.0% and rented ones at 18.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,165, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent median was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Empire Bay's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,165 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $410 against the national figure of $375.

Empire Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 78.3% of all households, including 37.4% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up 21.7%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

The educational profile of Empire Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 27 active stops operating within Empire Bay. These are serviced by 23 routes, providing a total of 452 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 179 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 33.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per stop.

Empire Bay's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Empire Bay's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Both young and old age cohorts experience common health issues at standard levels.

Approximately 55% (~1,320 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.4%) and asthma (8.7%), with 66.5% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age population health outcomes are typical. The area has 24.6% (595 people) aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Senior health outcomes rank above average, aligning with national averages for the general population.

Empire Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Empire Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 95.5% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Empire Bay is Christianity, comprising 53.2% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 0.4% versus 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (32.1%), English (31.0%), and Scottish (8.6%) are the top groups in Empire Bay, significantly higher than regional averages of 17.8%, 19.0%, and 5.1% respectively. Notably, Welsh (0.9%), Maltese (0.9%), and Russian (0.3%) populations also diverge from regional figures.

Empire Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Empire Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and also considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. In the 2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group made up 9.8% of Empire Bay's population, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 7.0%. Post-Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.8% to 9.8%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 1.5% to 2.6%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 8.7% to 7.0%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.6%. Population forecasts for Empire Bay in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 33%, reaching 315 people from a previous count of 237. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth, reflecting Empire Bay's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65 to 74 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.