Empire Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Empire Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates, as of November 2025, the Empire Bay statistical area's population is estimated at around 2,418. This reflects a decrease of 104 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,522. The current resident population estimate of 2,396 was inferred by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 646 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 72.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the Empire Bay (SA2) is anticipated to grow by 14 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 0.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Empire Bay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Empire Bay has experienced around 2 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), an estimated 14 homes were approved, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

Developers target the premium market segment, with new dwellings valued at an average of $855,000. In FY-26, $96,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney's regional average per person, Empire Bay has significantly less development activity (69.0% below). This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although recent periods show increased development activity. Nationally, this is also below average, suggesting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining Empire Bay's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 680 people. With stable or declining population expected in the future, Empire Bay should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Empire Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A single project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this particular area. Key projects include Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, Jabiru at Ettalong Beach, Gosford Private Hospital redevelopment, and Northside Private Hospital. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Empire Bay ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Empire Bay has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 1.8% as of September 2025. This is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The area experienced estimated employment growth of 2.8% over the past year. As of this date, 1,241 residents are employed while workforce participation is on par with Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 6.5% of Empire Bay's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force increased by 3.2%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 14.0% over ten years. Applying these projections to Empire Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Empire Bay's median taxpayer income is $46,714, with an average of $69,961, based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is slightly above national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimates project a median income of approximately $50,853 and an average of $76,160, accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Empire Bay's household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly), while personal income is at the 39th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 31.0% of locals (749 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile. Empire Bay's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Empire Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Empire Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.3% houses and 6.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasted with Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Empire Bay stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 18.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,165, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent in Empire Bay was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Empire Bay's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were above the national figure of $375.

Empire Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.3% of all households, including 37.4% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Empire Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 43.2% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 27 active stops operating in Empire Bay, offering mixed bus services. These stops are covered by 23 unique routes, collectively facilitating 452 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents usually situated 179 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 64 daily trips across all routes, translating to around 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Empire Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Empire Bay faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 55% of its total population (~1,319 people) have private health cover. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.4 and 8.7% of residents respectively. A total of 66.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.8% across Greater Sydney. As of 2016, 23.8% of Empire Bay's residents are aged 65 and over (575 people). Health outcomes among seniors in the area are above average, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Empire Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Empire Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 95.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Empire Bay, comprising 53.2% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 0.4% versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.1%), English (31.0%), and Scottish (8.6%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Welsh at 0.9% in Empire Bay compared to 0.7% regionally, Maltese at 0.9% versus 0.7%, and Russian at 0.3% compared to 0.4%.

Empire Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Empire Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up 12.3% of the population in Empire Bay, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 7.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.8% to 9.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 12.9% and the 25 to 34 group has dropped from 8.7% to 7.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Empire Bay, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 47%, reaching 326 people from a previous total of 222. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 95% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.