Empire Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Empire Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Empire Bay is around 2,186, a decrease of 336 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,522. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 2,283 as of June 2024, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 584 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

These aggregations project growth rates by age group for all areas from 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, the suburb is anticipated to grow by 56 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Empire Bay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Empire Bay has experienced approximately two dwelling approvals per year. Between fiscal years 2021 to 2025, around fourteen homes were approved, with no approvals recorded so far in fiscal year 2026. The population decline during this period has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

Developers target the premium market segment, with new dwellings valued at approximately $855,000 on average. Commercial development approvals totaled $39,000 in fiscal year 2026, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Empire Bay has significantly less development activity, 69.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also below national averages, suggesting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population density is 1191 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Empire Bay is expected to grow by 252 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Empire Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects are Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, Jabiru at Ettalong Beach, Gosford Private Hospital redevelopment, and Northside Private Hospital. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Empire Bay ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Empire Bay has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 1.8% as of June 2025. This rate is 2.4 percentage points lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The area experienced employment growth of 2.2% over the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 1,227 residents are in work and workforce participation is at 60.0%, equal to Greater Sydney's rate. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Empire Bay has a significant specialization in construction, with an employment share twice the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, making up only 6.5% of Empire Bay's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, labour force grew by 2.7%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points in Empire Bay. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Empire Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Empire Bay had a median taxpayer income of $46,714 and an average of $69,961 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This was higher than national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $52,605 (median) and $78,783 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly), while personal income was at the 39th percentile. The earnings profile showed that 31.0% of locals (677 people) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.9% occupied this range. High housing costs consumed 15.3% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 59th percentile, with the area's SEIFA income ranking placing it in the 6th decile.

Empire Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Empire Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 93.3% houses and 6.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Empire Bay was 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 18.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,165, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure in Empire Bay was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Empire Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Empire Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.3% of all households, including 37.4% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households at 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Empire Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 31.4%. Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education.

Empire Bay Public School serves the area, enrolling 447 students as of a recent date. The school caters to primary education only, with secondary options available nearby. Its capacity exceeds typical residential needs (20.4 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 15.9), indicating it serves as an educational hub for the broader region. School conditions are typical for Australia (ICSEA: 1039) with balanced educational opportunities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Empire Bay has 27 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of buses along 23 different routes. Together, these routes facilitate 444 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of the transport system is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 179 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 63 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Empire Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Empire Bay faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~1,193 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.4 and 8.7% of residents respectively. 66.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 64.8% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, the area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (520 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Empire Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Empire Bay's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 86.6% born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 95.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 53.2%. The most notable overrepresentation was seen in Judaism, comprising 0.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.2%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 32.1%, English 31.0%, and Scottish 8.6% of the population. Some ethnic groups showed distinct representation: Welsh at 0.9% (vs regional 0.7%), Maltese at 0.9% (vs regional 0.7%), and Russian at 0.3% (vs regional 0.4%).

Empire Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Empire Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 9.3% of the population in Empire Bay, compared to a lower prevalence of 7.6% for the 25-34 cohort. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.8% to 9.3%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 13.0% and the 25-34 group has decreased from 8.7% to 7.6%. Population forecasts for Empire Bay in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 63%, reaching 332 people from a base of 203. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 81% of total population growth, reflecting Empire Bay's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25-34 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.