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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Kincumber is $1.24m, with units at $715k. House values have moved 3.1% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Kincumber has an estimated 7,411 residents. That puts 748 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Evaluations of ABS population updates for the wider region, alongside new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, indicate the population of Kincumber is approximately 7,411 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 13 people (0.2%) since the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 7,398 residents. The adjustment is derived from the resident population of 7,409, calculated by AreaSearch using the latest ERP data release from the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 7 validated new addresses after the Census date. This population level translates to a density ratio of 747 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with averages typical of locations assessed by AreaSearch.
Kincumber's 0.2% growth since the census is within 2.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population gains in the area were mostly fueled by overseas migration, which served as almost the sole driver of population growth during recent periods. AreaSearch implements ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For SA2 areas where this data is unavailable, projections from the NSW State Government at the SA2 level are utilised, published in 2022 using 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic trends, projections indicate a contraction in the overall population, with the area's population expected to decrease by 312 persons by 2041 under this framework. Conversely, expansion in specific age cohorts is expected, led by the 85 and over group, which is projected to grow by 370 people. See the age section for more details.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
36 new dwellings have been approved in Kincumber over the past five years, an average of 7 a year. That is 1.0 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 7, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Analysis of ABS building approvals by AreaSearch, allocated from statistical area data, shows that Kincumber has averaged approximately 7 new dwelling approvals annually, with an estimated 36 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 7 so far in FY-26. With the population shrinking over recent years, housing supply has remained sufficient to meet demand, establishing a balanced market with good opportunities for buyers, while new dwellings are built at an average value of $341,000. Furthermore, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, pointing to a mainly residential focus.
Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber exhibits substantially lower building activity (74.0% below the regional average per person). This lack of new housing options generally supports demand and prices for existing properties. This activity is also lower than national averages, indicating a mature market and suggesting potential development limitations. Meanwhile, new residential construction has consisted entirely of detached houses, preserving the suburb's traditional low density feel with an emphasis on family homes designed for those wanting space. New construction leans more heavily toward detached housing than current patterns indicate (66.0% at the Census), showing sustained strong demand for family homes despite rising density pressures. The estimated count of 1,478 people in the area per dwelling approval highlights its quiet, low activity development environment. With the population projected to remain stable or decrease, Kincumber should experience reduced pressure on housing, potentially offering favorable opportunities for purchasers.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Kincumber
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Kincumber, worth an estimated $4 million. A further 24 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $328 million. 3 are already under construction and 2 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans sports & recreation, environmental & disaster management and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Few factors influence local performance as much as changes to infrastructure, major projects, and planning schemes. A total of 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are expected to influence the area. Key projects include Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development, and Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades, with the following list detailing those of the greatest relevance.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Frost Reserve Upgrades
Central Coast Council is delivering major sports and community recreation upgrades at Frost Reserve in Kincumber. The project includes a modern 750sqm regional skate park, a new 370sqm sports amenities building with accessible changerooms, canteen, and storage, upgraded car parking facilities, and enhanced sports field lighting.
Green Point Shopping Village Expansion
Approved expansion and refurbishment of Green Point Shopping Village including additional retail tenancies, upgraded public amenities, improved parking and site improvements. No evidence of construction commencement was identified from official sources as of July 2026.
Wamberal Community Park Upgrade
Major upgrade to Wamberal Community Park including new playground equipment, improved sports facilities, additional parking, and enhanced landscaping. The project aims to provide better recreational facilities for the growing local community.
Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades
Upgrade of the Green Point Foreshore Reserve on Brisbane Water, Central Coast, including three new sandy coves, grassed open space, an off-leash dog area, improved waterfront access, landscaping, and a nearby fenced playground. Works were delivered by Central Coast Council as part of its ongoing parks and playspace improvement program.
Wamberal Road Hazard Reduction Works
Road safety improvement works along Wamberal Road including installation of safety barriers, improved signage, line marking upgrades, and vegetation clearing to enhance sight lines. The project addresses identified accident black spots.
Wamberal Bus Interchange Upgrade
Modernization of Wamberal bus interchange with improved passenger facilities, real-time information displays, weather protection, and better accessibility features. The upgrade supports the expanded Central Coast bus network.
Wamberal Stormwater Management Upgrade
Comprehensive stormwater infrastructure upgrade for Wamberal including new drainage systems, water quality improvement devices, and flood mitigation measures. The project addresses increased rainfall intensity and urban development pressures.
Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion
Multi stage campus expansion at Central Coast Grammar School's Erina Heights campus delivering a new K 6 junior school, senior college facilities, performing arts centre, upgraded sports fields and canteen under the school's facilities master plan.
3,320 residents of Kincumber are employed, from a labour force of 3,399. Unemployment sits at 2.3%, with participation at 55.0%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.8% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Kincumber has a skilled labor force, with essential services well represented, an unemployment rate of only 2.3%, and an estimated employment growth of 3.5% over the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 3,320 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 1.8% below the Greater Sydney rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is considerably lower (55.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 69.1%). Based on Census responses, a high 30.8% of residents worked from home, though the influence of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions should be kept in mind.
Employment among local residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The suburb displays a particularly high concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 5.9% of local workers, which is below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The heavily residential suburb seems to offer limited local job opportunities, as indicated by the balance between the Census working population and resident population. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, aggregated from broader statistical areas, during the 12 months leading to March 2026, employment grew by 3.5% while the labor force grew by 3.4%, which kept the unemployment rate relatively stable. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 1.9% and labor force growth of 1.9%, with a slight decline. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia as of May-25 can provide additional perspective on potential future demand in Kincumber. These projections, spanning five and ten-year periods, have been matched against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly across different industries. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kincumber's employment mix suggests local employment should rise by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years (note that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not incorporate localized population projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Kincumber is $1,321 a week (about $69,000 a year), with median personal income at $686 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $42,953 a year against an average of $63,561. The average runs 48% above the median, a wider spread than most areas and a sign of a concentrated group of high earners. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
The latest postcode level ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicates that income in the suburb of Kincumber is below the national average, with the median recorded at $42,953 and the average income standing at $63,561. This is lower than Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $47,386 (median) and $70,120 (average) as of March 2026. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Kincumber all sit between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally.
Income analysis reveals 26.5% of the population (1,963 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, mirroring the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are intense, with only 79.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 17th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Kincumber had 2,938 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 66% detached houses and 4% apartments. 39% are owned with a mortgage, 22% rented and 39% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,085 a month. Rent absorbs 30.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 36.4%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The structure of dwellings in Kincumber, as measured at the latest Census, consisted of 65.6% houses and 34.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to the Sydney metro average of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership in Kincumber was significantly above that of Sydney metro at 39.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (39.3%) or rented (21.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,085, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro averages of $2,427 and $470.
Nationally, Kincumber's mortgage payments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Kincumber counted 2,938 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.4 people each. 27% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 32% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households make up the majority at 66.2% of all households, comprising 27.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.8%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households making up 1.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
21.0% of adults in Kincumber hold a university qualification, including 15.2% with a bachelor degree and 3.9% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.3% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 1,656 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,037 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The suburb faces educational hurdles, with university qualification rates (21.0%) significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials feature prominently, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding trade or technical qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.3%). Participation in education is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal studies. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Kincumber reaches 78 stops on 63 routes, timetabled for about 830 services a week. The typical home sits about 180 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport analysis reveals 78 active transport stops operating within Kincumber, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 63 individual routes, collectively providing 831 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode of transport at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. A high 30.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; which may reflect COVID-19 conditions). Service frequency averages 118 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
60.4% of residents in Kincumber report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 76% of areas nationally. 8.8% need daily assistance with core activities, and 52.1% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 7.3 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health statistics show substantial challenges facing Kincumber, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with common health conditions notable among both younger and older cohorts. Additionally, the rate of private health coverage slightly lags behind the average SA2 area, sitting at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,859 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.9 and 8.8% of residents, respectively, while 60.4% reported having no medical conditions compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney.
Working-age residents display above average rates of chronic health issues. The suburb has 32.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,393 people), which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes for seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally aligned with the wider population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Kincumber is largely Australian-born, at 82.3% of residents, with 5.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (33.1%) and Australian (28.6%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Kincumber was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% holding citizenship, and 94.9% speaking only English at home. The main religion in Kincumber was Christianity, representing 57.6% of residents. However, the most visible overrepresentation was in Judaism, which accounts for 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney. Looking at ancestry (parental country of birth), the top three represented groups in Kincumber are English, accounting for 33.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, accounting for 28.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, representing 9.5% of the population.
Furthermore, there are notable differences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Hungarian is overrepresented at 0.4% of Kincumber (vs 0.3% regionally), Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.4%), and Russian at 0.4% (vs 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Kincumber is 48, older than 88% of areas nationally. 18.8% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
At 48 years, Kincumber's median age is significantly above the Greater Sydney average of 37 and also older than Australia's median of 38 years. The demographic breakdown shows 75 - 84 year-olds are particularly prominent (12.0%), while the 25 - 34 cohort is relatively smaller (8.0%) than in Greater Sydney. This concentration of 75 - 84 year-olds is well above the national figure of 6.1%. Since 2021, the 85+ cohort has increased from 7.1% to 8.4% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 group has shrunk from 9.4% to 8.0% and the 55 to 64 bracket has fallen from 11.5% to 10.4%.
Population forecasts for 2041 point to substantial demographic changes for Kincumber. The 85+ group shows the strongest projected growth at 55%, adding 345 residents to reach 968. Senior residents (65+) will drive 100% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. In contrast, population contractions are projected for the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 cohorts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Kincumber
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 3 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 7 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (7,398 at the 2021 Census → 7,411 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL12149). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.