Kincumber

Kincumber is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the population of the suburb of Kincumber is estimated at around 7,382 people. This reflects a decrease since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,398 people. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and analysis of ABS population updates and ERP data released in June 2024. This results in a population density ratio of 744 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove the area's population growth during recent periods.

Population projections for Kincumber are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Kincumber's population is expected to decline by 248 persons by 2041, while the 85 and over age group is projected to grow by 376 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Kincumber has seen approximately seven new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 38 homes. As of FY-26, three approvals have been recorded. The average construction cost value for new homes is $341,000. There have also been $873,000 in commercial approvals this financial year.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber records significantly lower building activity, 73.0% below the regional average per person. New construction has been entirely comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1341 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population is expected to remain stable or decline, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Kincumber should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Kincumber has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber (scheduled for completion 2023), Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development (commenced Oct 2021), and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades (commenced Feb 2022).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%.

As of that date, 3,267 residents were employed. Workforce participation in Kincumber was 54.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A high proportion of residents, 30.8%, worked from home according to Census responses. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance (1.4 times the regional average), construction, and retail trade.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.9% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, while labour force grew by 2.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Kincumber's employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Kincumber's median income is $42,953 and average income is $63,561. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $46,759 (median) and $69,193 (average). Census data shows that Kincumber's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 26.5% of Kincumber's population earns within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kincumber, with only 79.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 17th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kincumber's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.6% houses and 34.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.3% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,085, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Kincumber was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kincumber's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,085 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Kincumber features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.8%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kincumber performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area has university qualification rates of 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high at 27.4%, comprising primary education (9.3%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (3.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber has 78 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 63 different routes that together facilitate 831 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Kincumber being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 92%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.2 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high 30.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 118 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~3,844 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area at 59.9%. This compares to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.9% and 8.8% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 60.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 33.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,465 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kincumber ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber, as per data from the 2016 Census, showed lower than average cultural diversity with 82.3% of its population born in Australia and 91.1% being Australian citizens. English was spoken at home by 94.9%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 57.6% of Kincumber's population.

Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, with 0.3% versus 0.8%. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.1%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Other ethnicities with notable differences included Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.3%), Welsh (0.7% vs 0.4%), and Russian (0.4% each).

Kincumber hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber's median age is 48 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 75-84 year-olds make up 13.0% of the population, which is particularly prominent compared to the national average of 6.1%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group comprises only 7.6%, smaller than Greater Sydney's percentage. Since 2021, Kincumber has seen an increase in the 75-84 age group from 11.5% to 13.0% and a decrease in the 25-34 cohort from 9.4% to 7.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes, with the strongest growth projected for the 85+ age group (57%), adding 338 residents to reach 929. This growth will be driven entirely by senior residents aged 65 and above, highlighting aging trends in Kincumber's demographics. Conversely, population declines are expected for the 45-54 and 65-74 age cohorts.