Kincumber

Kincumber is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of Kincumber is estimated at around 7,376 people, reflecting a decrease of 22 individuals since the 2021 Census. The resident population estimate of 7,367 by AreaSearch, following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of five new addresses, indicates this decline. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 744 persons per square kilometer. While Kincumber experienced a 0.3% decrease since the Census, the surrounding SA3 area showed a 2.3% growth, highlighting contrasting trends within the region. Overseas migration primarily drove population gains for the area during recent periods. AreaSearch's projections for Kincumber are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, using a base year of 2021.

According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decrease by approximately 250 persons by 2041, with growth anticipated in specific age cohorts, notably an increase of around 376 people in the 85 and over age group.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval data indicates that Kincumber has seen approximately seven new home approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 38 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. The average construction cost value for new homes in Kincumber is $341,000, below regional norms, suggesting more affordable housing options. This financial year, there have also been $97,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber records significantly lower building activity, with 73.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, Kincumber also has lower building activity, indicating market maturity and potential development constraints. All new construction in the area over this period has been detached houses, maintaining its traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking family homes. This trend is more pronounced than current Census patterns, suggesting robust demand for detached housing. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Kincumber is 1341 people, reflecting its quiet development environment.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, pressure on housing should be reduced, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Kincumber has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch may impact the area: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber (August 2021 - December 2022), Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development (commencing Q4 2022), Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades (beginning early 2023).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. As of June 2025, 3,300 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 1.8% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation in Kincumber lagged behind Greater Sydney at 49.8% compared to 60.0%. Employment was concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with notable concentration in health care & social assistance at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employed only 5.9% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Limited employment opportunities locally were indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force increased by 2.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6%. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kincumber's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Kincumber is $42,953. Average income stands at $63,561. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Kincumber would be approximately $48,369 (median) and $71,576 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals incomes in Kincumber fall between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows 26.5% of the population earns within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, mirroring surrounding regions at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 79.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 17th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Kincumber, as per the latest Census, comprised 65.6% houses and 34.3% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber was at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.3% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,085, below Sydney metro's average of $2,150. Median weekly rent in Kincumber was $400, matching Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Kincumber's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,085 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 versus the national figure of $375.

Kincumber features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for 33.8%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Kincumber performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges with university qualification rates at 21.0%, substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.3%).

Educational participation is high at 27.4%, including 9.3% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education. Kincumber's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,656 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1037) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 2 primary and 1 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (22.4 places per 100 residents vs 15.9 regionally), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber has 76 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 63 different routes that together facilitate 795 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 181 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 113 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 52%, or around 3,841 people, slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 54.7%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (affecting 11.9% of residents) and mental health problems (8.8%). Around 60.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. Kincumber has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 32.5% or about 2,397 people, than Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Senior health outcomes present challenges similar to those of the general population.

Kincumber ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 94.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 57.6% of Kincumber's population. Judaism, however, showed an overrepresentation, with 0.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.1%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Hungarian (0.4%) was notably overrepresented in Kincumber compared to the regional average of 0.3%, while Welsh (0.7%) and Russian (0.4%) showed no significant difference from their respective regional percentages.

Kincumber hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber's median age is 48 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 75-84 make up 12.7% of the population, a figure notably higher than the national average of 6%. Meanwhile, those aged 25-34 constitute only 8.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's proportion. Between 2021 and the present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 9.4% to 8.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Kincumber. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 64%, adding 361 residents and reaching a total of 929. This growth will be driven entirely by seniors aged 65 and above, reflecting the broader trend of demographic aging. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 45-54 and 65-74.