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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Kincumber is $1.21m, with units at $767k. House values have moved 2.6% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Sales Detail
Kincumber has an estimated 7,406 residents. That puts 747 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to AreaSearch evaluations combining ABS demographic revisions across the wider district and new addresses verified following the Census, the suburb of Kincumber has an estimated population of approximately 7,406 as of Aug 2026. This represents an addition of 8 people (0.1%) compared to the 2021 Census total of 7,398 people. This adjustment stems from an Estimated Resident Population figure of 7,404 identified by AreaSearch from the ABS June 2025 ERP release, alongside 7 post-Census validated new addresses. Population density stands at 747 persons per square kilometer, tracking closely with typical benchmarks across AreaSearch assessed territories.
The 0.1% post-Census increase in the suburb of Kincumber trails the wider SA3 area (2.7%) by 2.6 percentage points, indicating viable growth dynamics. Inbound overseas migration served as virtually the sole contributor to local population additions over recent intervals. SA2-level population models utilized by AreaSearch incorporate ABS/Geoscience Australia datasets published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, supplemented where necessary by NSW State Government SA2 forecasts issued in 2022 using 2021 as a base year. Projected age-bracket trajectories from these sources are extended across all territories through 2032 to 2041. Over this timeframe, overall numbers for the suburb of Kincumber are modeled to contract, reducing by 313 persons by 2041 under this framework. Conversely, expansion is anticipated among older demographics, headed by the cohort aged 85 and over with a projected rise of 379 people.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
37 new dwellings have been approved in Kincumber over the past five years, an average of 7 a year. That is 1.0 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 7, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
ABS residential approval figures aggregated by AreaSearch indicate an average of roughly 7 new dwellings authorized annually in Kincumber, totaling an estimated 37 homes across the previous 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), with 7 logged to date in FY-25. Amid recent population contraction, this level of construction has maintained balanced conditions between supply and demand, offering sound options for prospective purchasers. Newly approved dwellings carry an average estimated building cost of $392,000, which sits below regional benchmarks to indicate relative cost efficiency. In addition, $873,000 in non-residential commercial approvals has been registered during this financial year, underscoring a strong residential emphasis.
Residential building activity in Kincumber tracks 73.0% below the Greater Sydney per capita average, signaling subdued volume. Such limited additions of new housing typically underpin buyer competition and asset values for established stock. Output is also below broader Australian benchmarks, pointing to an established urban footprint and potential development limitations. Furthermore, recent building approvals consist exclusively of standalone houses, preserving the locality's low-density profile and family-oriented housing choice. Developers are prioritizing standalone houses above the prevailing built mix (66.0% at Census), reflecting continuous appetite for detached properties despite urban consolidation trends. A ratio of 1137 people per approved dwelling highlights the restrained pace of local development. Given expectations that resident numbers will hold flat or contract, housing market pressures in Kincumber are set to ease, potentially yielding favorable conditions for incoming buyers.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Kincumber
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Kincumber, worth an estimated $4 million. A further 24 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $328 million. 3 are already under construction and 2 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans sports & recreation, environmental & disaster management and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure investment and strategic planning exert a major influence on community development. AreaSearch has pinpointed 4 major initiatives expected to shape the district, including Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development, and Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Frost Reserve Upgrades
Central Coast Council is delivering major sports and community recreation upgrades at Frost Reserve in Kincumber. The project includes a modern 750sqm regional skate park, a new 370sqm sports amenities building with accessible changerooms, canteen, and storage, upgraded car parking facilities, and enhanced sports field lighting.
Green Point Shopping Village Expansion
Approved expansion and refurbishment of Green Point Shopping Village including additional retail tenancies, upgraded public amenities, improved parking and site improvements. No evidence of construction commencement was identified from official sources as of July 2026.
Wamberal Community Park Upgrade
Major upgrade to Wamberal Community Park including new playground equipment, improved sports facilities, additional parking, and enhanced landscaping. The project aims to provide better recreational facilities for the growing local community.
Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades
Upgrade of the Green Point Foreshore Reserve on Brisbane Water, Central Coast, including three new sandy coves, grassed open space, an off-leash dog area, improved waterfront access, landscaping, and a nearby fenced playground. Works were delivered by Central Coast Council as part of its ongoing parks and playspace improvement program.
Wamberal Road Hazard Reduction Works
Road safety improvement works along Wamberal Road including installation of safety barriers, improved signage, line marking upgrades, and vegetation clearing to enhance sight lines. The project addresses identified accident black spots.
Wamberal Bus Interchange Upgrade
Modernization of Wamberal bus interchange with improved passenger facilities, real-time information displays, weather protection, and better accessibility features. The upgrade supports the expanded Central Coast bus network.
Wamberal Stormwater Management Upgrade
Comprehensive stormwater infrastructure upgrade for Wamberal including new drainage systems, water quality improvement devices, and flood mitigation measures. The project addresses increased rainfall intensity and urban development pressures.
Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion
Multi stage campus expansion at Central Coast Grammar School's Erina Heights campus delivering a new K 6 junior school, senior college facilities, performing arts centre, upgraded sports fields and canteen under the school's facilities master plan.
3,316 residents of Kincumber are employed, from a labour force of 3,395. Unemployment sits at 2.3%, with participation at 55.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.8% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Statistical area metrics compiled by AreaSearch show Kincumber possesses a capable workforce supported by essential industries, an unemployment rate standing at only 2.3%, and an estimated 3.4% annual rise in employment. As of March 2026, 3,316 residents are employed, with the local jobless rate tracking 1.8% below the Greater Sydney level of 4.1%, while local labour force participation is considerably lower at 55.2% against 68.9% across Greater Sydney. Census records showed 30.8% of workers operating from home, an outcome influenced by Covid-19 restrictions. The primary sectors employing local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.
Specialization is particularly pronounced in health care & social assistance, where local employment concentration is 1.4 times the regional proportion. Conversely, professional & technical occupations are underrepresented, engaging only 5.9% of Kincumber workers versus 11.5% throughout Greater Sydney. Comparing the Census working population against resident workers indicates a predominantly residential area with limited local job generation. SALM and ABS data analyzed by AreaSearch across broader statistical areas show that during the 12 months leading to March 2026, both employment and the total labour pool expanded by 3.4%, holding local unemployment essentially steady. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded a 1.9% gain in employment alongside a 1.9% increase in its labour force, accompanied by a slight decrease in joblessness. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide context for future local labor requirements across five-year and ten-year horizons. Across Australia, workforce expansion is projected at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with performance varying across sectors. Applying these sectoral trajectories to Kincumber's industry distribution indicates potential local job increases of 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Kincumber is $1,321 a week (about $69,000 a year), with median personal income at $686 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $42,953 a year against an average of $63,561. The average runs 48% above the median, a wider spread than most areas and a sign of a concentrated group of high earners. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Postcode-level ATO records for financial year 2023 compiled by AreaSearch indicate that taxpayers in the suburb of Kincumber earned a median income of $42,953 alongside a mean of $63,561. These figures sit below Australian benchmarks and trail Greater Sydney, where median and average incomes reached $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Adjusting for a 10.32% rise in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023 places modeled earnings at roughly $47,386 for the median and $70,120 for the average as of March 2026. Across personal, family, and household measures, Census results locate the area between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally.
Income distribution shows 26.5% of residents (1,962 individuals) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, relative to 30.9% across the wider region. Housing affordability presents notable strain, with 79.1% of income uncommitted after housing costs (placing the suburb at the 17th percentile), while the area sits in the 5th decile on the SEIFA income scale.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Kincumber had 2,938 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 66% detached houses and 4% apartments. 39% are owned with a mortgage, 22% rented and 39% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,085 a month. Rent absorbs 30.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 36.4%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The Census housing profile for Kincumber showed standalone houses accounting for 65.6% of the dwelling supply and other formats (including semi-detached properties and apartments) representing 34.3%, compared to 55.9% houses and 44.1% alternate dwellings across the Sydney metro region. Outright home ownership stood at 39.0%, well above metropolitan levels, while 39.3% of homes were held with a mortgage and 21.7% were tenant-occupied. Typical monthly mortgage payments were $2,085 and median weekly rents were $400, sitting below Sydney metro figures of $2,427 and $470. On an Australia-wide scale, local mortgage servicing costs surpass the national median of $1,863, with local rents also tracking higher than the nationwide benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Kincumber counted 2,938 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.4 people each. 27% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 32% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute 66.2% of all households in the locality, made up of couples with children (27.1%), couples without children (27.2%), and single parent families (11.2%). Non-family living arrangements represent 33.8% of homes, predominantly single-person dwellings at 32.4% along with group residences at 1.5%. The typical household contains 2.4 people, lower than the Greater Sydney median of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
21.0% of adults in Kincumber hold a university qualification, including 15.2% with a bachelor degree and 3.9% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.3% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 1,656 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,037 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary qualification levels present an area for potential growth, as 21.0% of residents hold university degrees compared to 38.0% across Greater Sydney. Bachelor degrees form the primary higher education credential at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.9% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational qualifications are widespread, with 41.2% of persons aged 15+ holding technical credentials, comprising 11.9% with advanced diplomas and 29.3% with certificates. Formal study engagement is substantial, with 27.4% of the population attending an educational institution. This proportion includes 9.3% enrolled in primary education, 7.8% in secondary schooling, and 3.9% undertaking tertiary courses.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Kincumber reaches 78 stops on 63 routes, timetabled for about 980 services a week. The typical home sits about 180 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport connectivity in Kincumber includes 78 bus stops operated across 63 discrete routes, generating 981 weekly passenger trips. Access to public transport is rated as excellent, with average distance to the nearest stop standing at 181 meters. Private vehicles serve as the main commuting choice, used by 92% of traveling residents, while household vehicle ownership stands at 1.2 per dwelling. Census findings from 2021 recorded 30.8% of workers operating from home under pandemic-related conditions. Transit services provide an average of 140 daily trips across the entire local network, translating to roughly 12 weekly trips per transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
60.4% of residents in Kincumber report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 76% of areas nationally. 8.8% need daily assistance with core activities, and 52.1% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 7.3 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
AreaSearch evaluations of mortality and chronic illness patterns indicate notable health demands in Kincumber, with common conditions present across younger as well as older residents. Private health insurance membership stands at approximately 52% (~3,857 people), sitting slightly below typical SA2 levels and trailing the Greater Sydney coverage rate of 59.9%. Arthritis and mental health conditions represent the most prevalent diagnoses locally, affecting 11.9 and 8.8% of the community respectively, while 60.4% reported no medical conditions compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Chronic illnesses register above average among working-age individuals. Residents aged 65 and over make up 31.6% of the population (2,340 people), substantially above the 15.5% share across Greater Sydney, with older residents experiencing health metrics generally aligned with nationwide trends.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Kincumber is largely Australian-born, at 82.3% of residents, with 5.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (33.1%) and Australian (28.6%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity metrics in Kincumber show a predominantly domestic profile, with 82.3% of residents born in Australia, 91.1% holding Australian citizenship, and 94.9% using only English at home. Christianity is the leading religious affiliation, accounting for 57.6% of residents. Judaism represents 0.3% of the community, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney. Regarding ancestral origins based on parental country of birth, the primary backgrounds in Kincumber are English at 33.1% (compared to 19.0% across the region), Australian at 28.6% (against 17.8% regionally), and Irish at 9.5%. Other represented ancestral backgrounds include Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3% regionally), Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.4%), and Russian at 0.4% (vs 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Kincumber is 48, older than 88% of areas nationally. 18.9% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Demographically, Kincumber exhibits a distinct lifestyle and retirement orientation. Residents aged 65+ comprise 31.6% of the population as at August 2026, relative to 15.5% throughout Greater Sydney, while young to middle aged adults (25 - 44) account for 19.4% against a regional benchmark of 31.4%. The estimated median age sits at 48 as at August 2026, matching the 2021 Census figure and exceeding the Greater Sydney Census median of 37 by 11 years, as well as the national Census median of 38. Since the Census, the cohort aged 45 - 64 has reduced from 22.3% to an estimated 21.1%.
Forecasts indicate that by 2041, senior cohorts (65+) will absorb the bulk of demographic growth, adding 468 residents (20%) to reach 2,808, while cohorts of children, young adults, and young to middle aged adults are expected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Kincumber
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 2 months ago all 3 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 7 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (7,398 at the 2021 Census → 7,406 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL12149). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.