Kincumber

Kincumber is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Kincumber is around 7,382, reflecting a decrease of 16 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,398. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,368 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 744 persons per square kilometer, relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth for the suburb during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb's population is projected to decline by 261 persons overall, while the 85 and over age group is expected to grow by 379 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kincumber shows an average of around 7 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 38 homes. As of FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering buyers good choice, while new homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $341,000. This financial year has seen $873,000 in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber records markedly lower building activity, 73.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties due to the scarcity of new dwellings. This activity is also lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New construction has been completely comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This trend favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (66.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes. The estimated count of 1340 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Kincumber should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Kincumber has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly impacted by changes in local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified four projects that are expected to influence the area: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development, and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades. These are the key projects likely to have a significant impact on the region.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Kincumber significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Kincumber has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of an unspecified date, with estimated employment growth of 3.4% over the past year based on AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 3,295 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Kincumber was 54.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 30.8% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance employment levels were at 1.4 times the regional average.

In contrast, professional & technical services employed only 5.9% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.4%, while labour force increased by 3.5%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kincumber's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Kincumber is below the national average. The median income is $42,953 and the average income stands at $63,561. In comparison, Greater Sydney has a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $46,759 (median) and $69,193 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Kincumber all fall between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 26.5% of the population (1,956 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 17th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kincumber's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.6% houses and 34.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 65.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.3% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,085, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Kincumber was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kincumber's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,085 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 versus the national figure of $375.

Kincumber features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.8%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kincumber performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 41.2% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (9.3%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (3.9%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber has 78 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 63 different routes that together facilitate 831 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 181 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, primarily using cars (92%). On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 30.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 118 trips per day, amounting to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~3,844 people), slightly lagging the average SA2 area's 59.9%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (8.8%). However, 60.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 34.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,509 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kincumber ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 82.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 94.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 57.6%. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.1%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.3%), Welsh (0.7% vs 0.4%), and Russian (0.4% vs 0.4%) were relatively more represented in Kincumber compared to the region.

Kincumber hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years are particularly prominent, making up 13.2% of the population, compared to 6.1% nationally. This is a notable increase from 11.5% in 2021. Conversely, the 25-34 age group comprises only 7.7%, lower than Greater Sydney's proportion and down from 9.4% in 2021. Between 2021 and present, the 85+ cohort has also increased from 7.1% to 8.2%. By 2041, Kincumber's population is forecasted to change significantly. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 55%, adding 334 residents to reach 940. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all of the population growth, indicating a significant demographic aging trend. Conversely, populations in the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups are projected to decline.