Kincumber

Kincumber is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Kincumber statistical area (Lv2) is around 7,382. This figure represents a decrease of 16 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,398. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a resident population estimate of 7,368. The population density ratio is 744 persons per square kilometer, which is consistent with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch.

Population growth in the Kincumber (SA2) was primarily driven by overseas migration. AreaSearch's projections for future trends utilize ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. By 2041, the area's population is projected to decline by 250 persons according to these methodologies. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow during this period, notably the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 376 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kincumber shows approximately 7 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 38 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 3 approvals recorded. The average construction cost value for these new homes is $341,000. There has also been $873,000 in commercial approvals this financial year.

Compared to Greater Sydney and national averages, Kincumber records significantly lower building activity, with a per person rate 73.0% below the regional average and lower than the national figure, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. All new construction in the area has been detached houses, maintaining its traditional low density character and appealing to those seeking family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1341 people, reflecting Kincumber's quiet, low activity development environment. With stable or declining population expected, housing pressure should remain relatively low, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Kincumber should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Kincumber has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact the area due to local infrastructure changes. These key projects are Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development, and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades. The following list provides details on those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in September 2025, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.4%. As of September 2025, 3,269 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate of 49.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had particularly notable concentration, at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employed only 5.9% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.4%, while labour force increased by 2.9%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kincumber's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Kincumber is below the national average. The median income is $42,953 and the average income is $63,561. In comparison, Greater Sydney has a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Kincumber would be approximately $46,759 (median) and $69,193 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes in Kincumber all fall between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 26.5% of the population (1,956 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kincumber, with only 79.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 17th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluation of dwelling structures in Kincumber showed 65.6% houses and 34.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber was at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.3% and rented dwellings at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,085, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure for Kincumber was $400, matching Sydney metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Kincumber's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Kincumber features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.8%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Kincumber performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 29.3%. Educational participation is high, with 27.4% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.3% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 78 active transport stops in Kincumber, with a mix of bus services. These stops are covered by 63 unique routes, offering 831 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 118 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of Kincumber's total population (~3,844 people), which is slightly lower than the average for Greater Sydney at 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.9 and 8.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 60.4% of Kincumber's population declares no medical ailments, compared to 64.8% across Greater Sydney. As of 2016, 32.5% of Kincumber's residents are aged 65 and over (2,399 people), which is higher than the 24.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors in Kincumber present challenges generally aligned with the overall population's health profile.

Kincumber ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber, surveyed in June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 82.3% of its population born in Australia and 91.1% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 94.9%. Christianity dominated religiously with 57.6%, while Judaism had a higher representation at 0.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 0.2%.

Ancestry-wise, the top groups were English (33.1%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Notable differences existed in Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.3%), Welsh (0.7% vs 0.7%), and Russian (0.4% vs 0.4%) groups.

Kincumber hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber's median age is 48 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 12.7% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 8.1%, which is smaller than in Greater Sydney. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national average of 6.0%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of individuals aged 75 to 84 has increased from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the percentage of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 9.4% to 8.1%. Population forecasts for Kincumber in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the strongest growth projected for the 85+ cohort at 63%, adding 360 residents to reach a total of 929. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, underscoring trends towards an aging demographic. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 45-54 and 65-74.