Kincumber

Kincumber is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Kincumber is around 7,411, reflecting an increase of 13 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 0.2% change from the previous population count of 7,398. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on ERP data released by the ABS in June 2025 and validated new addresses, is 7,409. This results in a density ratio of 747 persons per square kilometer for Kincumber. Compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch, this figure is relatively average. The suburb's population growth since the census positions it within 2.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals.

Overseas migration was primarily responsible for driving population gains during recent periods. For future projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia methodologies released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 312 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group which is projected to increase by 370 people during this period.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kincumber shows around 7 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years up to FY26. By June 2026, a total of 38 homes are estimated to have been approved. In FY26 so far, there have been 6 approvals. The average construction cost value for these new homes is $341,000.

There has also been $873,000 in commercial approvals this financial year. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber's building activity is significantly lower (73.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New construction in the area has been entirely comprised of detached houses, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1339 people, reflecting Kincumber's quiet, low activity development environment.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, reduced pressure on housing is anticipated, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Kincumber has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified four key projects expected to influence the area: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber (scheduled for completion in late 2023), Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development (commenced in April 2021), and Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades (slated for commencement in early 2024).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Kincumber significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Kincumber has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. There were 3,295 residents employed by December 2025, with an unemployment rate of 1.9%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Kincumber was 54.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A high proportion of residents, 30.8%, worked from home based on Census responses. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, employment levels in health care & social assistance are at 1.4 times the regional average.

In contrast, professional & technical employs only 5.9% of local workers, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.4% while labour force increased by 3.5%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable, compared to Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Kincumber. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kincumber's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 30, 2023 shows median income in Kincumber suburb was $42,953 and average income stood at $63,561. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of median income $60,817 and average income $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from July 1, 2023 to March 2026, estimated current incomes would be approximately $47,386 (median) and $70,120 (average). Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Kincumber fall between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows 26.5% of population (1,963 individuals) falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to surrounding region's 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 79.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 17th percentile. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kincumber's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 65.6% houses and 34.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 65.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.3% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,085, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Kincumber was recorded as $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kincumber's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,085 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Kincumber features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 66.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for 33.8%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kincumber performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 41.2% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (9.3%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (3.9%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Kincumber indicates that there are currently 78 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes totaling 63 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide approximately 831 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 181 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation, used by 92% of residents.

Vehicle ownership averages at approximately 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high percentage of residents, specifically 30.8%, work from home, which may reflect conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The service frequency across all routes averages around 118 trips per day, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of Kincumber's total population (~3,859 people), slightly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (8.8%). Conversely, 60.4% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents display a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Kincumber has 32.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,393 people), exceeding Greater Sydney's figure of 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings largely in line with the general population.

Kincumber ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 82.3% born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 94.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 57.6%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.1%), Australian (28.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) and Welsh (0.7%) were also overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

Kincumber hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 12.0% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney where this group constitutes 9.6%. This concentration is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between 2021 and now, the proportion of those aged 85 and over has grown from 7.1% to 8.4%, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 9.4% to 8.0%. The 55-64 age group has also decreased slightly, from 11.5% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Kincumber. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 55%, adding 345 residents and reaching a total of 968. Senior residents aged 65 and over will drive all population growth, highlighting the trend of demographic aging. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 45-54 and 65-74.