Point Frederick

Population growth drivers in Point Frederick are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Feb 2026, the suburb of Point Frederick's estimated population is around 2,333. This reflects an increase of 290 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,043. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,228 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 225 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,888 persons per square kilometer, placing Point Frederick in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 14.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (3.2%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving Point Frederick's population growth.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, a significant population increase is forecast for Point Frederick, with an expected rise of 1,020 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 39.2% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Point Frederick when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Point Frederick has seen around 53 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 267 homes between FY-18 and FY-22. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 new residents arrive per new home annually over this period, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand.

The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $382,000. In FY-26, Point Frederick has seen $8.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Point Frederick shows 585.0% higher building activity per person as of recent data. This level is above the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the area. New building activity consists of 4.0% detached dwellings and 96.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. With around 135 people per dwelling approval, Point Frederick exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Point Frederick is expected to grow by 915 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Point Frederick has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified two major projects impacting the area: Amalfi by ALAND, Gosford Hospital Redevelopment, M1 Pacific Motorway Kariong to Somersby Widening, and The Elly Extension.

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The employment environment in Point Frederick shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Point Frederick has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.4%. Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 4.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 1,208 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Point Frederick lags behind Greater Sydney at 63.7%. A high proportion of residents work from home, with 38.5% doing so according to Census responses. Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered when interpreting this figure.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Point Frederick has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 8.4% of Point Frederick's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 4.4% while labour force increased by 4.3%, leaving unemployment broadly flat according to AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Point Frederick. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Point Frederick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.3% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Point Frederick had a median taxpayer income of $57,233 and an average income of $73,963 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 during the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,304 (median) and $80,516 (average), based on an 8.86% increase from the financial year 2023 wages. Census data shows personal income ranks at the 64th percentile ($882 weekly), while household income is at the 43rd percentile. Income distribution reveals that 32.0% of Point Frederick's population (746 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which aligns with the broader trend in the surrounding region where 30.9% are in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 42nd percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Point Frederick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Point Frederick, as per the latest Census data, 34.0% of dwellings were houses while 66.1% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other dwellings. Home ownership in Point Frederick stood at 31.3%, with mortgaged properties making up 21.0% and rented dwellings accounting for 47.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,947, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $390, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Point Frederick's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Point Frederick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.6% of all households, including 17.3% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.4%, with lone person households at 36.7% and group households making up 3.8%. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Point Frederick demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Point Frederick has a notably higher educational attainment than broader averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 36.2% have university qualifications, compared to 20.8% in the SA4 region and 25.7% in the SA3 area. The most common university qualifications are bachelor degrees (23.5%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 32.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.8%) and certificates (19.0%).

Furthermore, 24.6% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 6.6% in secondary education, 6.4% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Point Frederick has 11 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 46 different routes, offering a total of 1,985 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 99 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. In this predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 83%, with trains at 7% and buses at 6%. On average, there are 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 38.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 283 trips per day, equating to about 180 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Point Frederick is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Point Frederick demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,309 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.8 and 8.8% of residents respectively. 65.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 27.2% of residents aged 65 and over (634 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Point Frederick was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Point Frederick's population showed greater linguistic diversity, with 16.0% speaking a language other than English at home, compared to the majority of local markets. Born overseas, 26.7% of Point Frederick residents were born abroad. Christianity was the predominant religion in Point Frederick, accounting for 55.2% of its population.

Notably, Judaism had an overrepresentation with 0.5%, higher than Greater Sydney's average of 0.8%. Regarding ancestry, English was the most represented group at 29.0%, significantly higher than the regional average of 19.0%. Australian and Irish followed, making up 22.7% and 10.9% respectively. Korean, Welsh, and Russian ethnic groups showed notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages: Korean was overrepresented at 1.2%, Welsh at 0.7%, and Russian remained the same at 0.4%.

Point Frederick hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Point Frederick's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 14.8% of the population, compared to 9.5% nationally. Conversely, the 5-14 age group is smaller at 7.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's proportion. Between 2021 and present, the 0-4 age group has increased from 3.9% to 4.9% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 12.4% to 11.4%. Population forecasts for Point Frederick in 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes, with the 75-84 age group projected to grow by 86%, adding 181 residents to reach a total of 391.