Kariong

Kariong is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Kariong is around 6490, reflecting an increase of 5 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of approximately 0.1%. The latest estimate was derived from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses following the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024. This population density equates to around 251 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space for further development. Natural growth contributed significantly to this increase, accounting for approximately 63% of overall gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch utilises projections from ABS/Geoscience Australia for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these projections, AreaSearch employs the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 using a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth across statistical areas nationally. Kariong is projected to increase by 2 persons by the year 2041, reflecting a total increase of approximately 0.0% over the 17-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

The level of residential development activity in Kariong is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kariong has averaged approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 34 homes. As of FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $495,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

This financial year, $68,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kariong has significantly less development activity, with 73.0% fewer approvals per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, which is also below the national average, suggesting established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity in Kariong shows 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% attached dwellings, with an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 92.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1178 people, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Future projections estimate Kariong adding 2 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to adequately meet demand. This should create favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Kariong has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: Northside Private Hospital, Ocean Beach Road/Rawson Road Intersection Upgrade (scheduled for completion in 2023), Transport Oriented Development - Woy Woy Station Precinct (commenced in June 2018), and Blackwall Road Intersection Upgrades (planned for late 2022). These are considered most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Kariong places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Kariong has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.3%. As of December 2025, 3734 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 74.0%, close to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Notably, 30.2% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with a significant concentration in the former at 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 6.7%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Over the past year, employment increased by 3.3% while labour force grew by 3.6%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kariong's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.6% in five years and 13.8% in ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Kariong suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $55,157 and an average level of $71,280. Both figures are above the national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively for Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $60,044 (median) and $77,595 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, Kariong's household income ranks at the 78th percentile ($2,200 weekly), while personal income sits at the 59th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 39.9% of the population, consisting of 2,589 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the regional average where 30.9% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Kariong is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Kariong's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.2% houses and 7.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kariong stood at 25.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (52.3%) or rented (22.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,080, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kariong's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kariong features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 82.9% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.1%, with lone person households at 15.1% and group households making up 2.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Kariong fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.2%). Educational participation is high, with 32.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.4% in primary, 9.7% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kariong has 35 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 27 different routes, offering a total of 443 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 199 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 30.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 63 trips per day, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Kariong is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kariong faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment as of October 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population, which consists of about 3,575 people. This compares to a rate of 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.3% and 8.9% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 69.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 13.7% of residents aged 65 and over, which amounts to about 889 people, lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Kariong records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kariong's population was found to be roughly in line with the wider region's average regarding cultural diversity, with 81.0% born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 88.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Kariong is Christianity, comprising 51.4% of its population. However, Judaism was found to be overrepresented, making up 0.2% compared to the regional average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (30.4%), English (28.4%), and Irish (7.2%). Notably, Russian (0.5%) and Welsh (0.7%) were overrepresented in Kariong compared to the region's averages of 0.4% each, while Lebanese was underrepresented at 0.9% versus the regional average of 2.6%.

Kariong's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Kariong's median age is nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kariong has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of residents aged 65-74 has grown from 6.4% to 8.2%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 5-14 has declined from 15.5% to 14.4%, and the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has dropped from 14.9% to 13.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Kariong's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 98%, adding 248 residents to reach 502. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.