Erina - Green Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Erina - Green Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Erina - Green Point's population was approximately 14,734 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents a decrease of 24 people, or 0.2%, since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,758. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 14,706 in June 2024 and an additional 153 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 436 persons per square kilometer. While Erina - Green Point experienced a 0.2% decline since the census, the SA3 area achieved 2.3% growth, demonstrating divergent population trends. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to increase by just below the median of national statistical areas, expanding by 998 persons to 2041 and reflecting a total gain of 6.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Erina - Green Point, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Erina - Green Point has seen approximately 24 dwellings granted development approval annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 124 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved in FY-26 to date. The population decline in recent years has been accompanied by adequate development activity relative to the declining population, which could benefit buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $697,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. This financial year, $26.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, showing moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point has significantly less development activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. The constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although building activity has increased in recent years. This activity is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living.

This shift marks a significant departure from the current housing patterns, which are predominantly houses (84.0%). The estimated population density is 592 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Erina - Green Point is projected to grow by 944 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining reasonable progress with projected growth, although buyers may face increasing competition as population increases.

Erina - Green Point has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 55 projects that could impact this region. Key initiatives include the Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, and Broadlands Estate Green Point. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Erina - Green Point demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Erina - Green Point has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.9% as of June 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 2.3% over the past year. As of June 2025, there are 6,715 residents employed, with a workforce participation rate of 49.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Erina - Green Point has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.7% compared to the regional average of 7.3%. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.7, indicating a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. In the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, while the labour force grew by 2.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, favourably comparing to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Erina - Green Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 indicates Erina - Green Point SA2's median income among taxpayers is $50,587, with an average of $70,252. This is above the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $56,966 (median) and $79,111 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census shows household, family and personal incomes in Erina - Green Point rank modestly between the 26th and 31st percentiles. The earnings profile reveals that the $400 - 799 bracket dominates with 25.2% of residents (3,712 people), unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Erina - Green Point exhibits income diversity with 31.0% earning under $800 weekly and 24.7% exceeding $3,000, indicating a mixed socioeconomic profile. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Erina - Green Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Erina - Green Point as per the latest Census data, 83.5% of dwellings were houses while 16.6% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina - Green Point stood at 48.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.3% and rented ones at 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. Median weekly rent in the area was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Erina - Green Point's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were above the national figure of $375.

Erina - Green Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.6% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households at 29.7% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Erina - Green Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 27.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 24.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.8% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Erina - Green Point shows that there are currently 151 active transport stops operating. These stops offer a mix of bus services. There are 136 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing a total of 2,658 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 182 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 379 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina - Green Point is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Erina - Green Point, with common conditions prevalent across younger and older age groups.

Approximately 54% (~8,015 people) have private health cover, a rate higher than Greater Sydney. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (7.9%), while 61.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 32.3% (4,756 people), higher than the 24.5% in Greater Sydney. Seniors' health outcomes face challenges broadly aligned with the general population's profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina - Green Point records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina-Green Point, surveyed in June 2016, had a population with 77.9% born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 60.8%, compared to 53.4% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.1%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.4%).

Notably, South African ancestry was higher at 0.7% than the regional average of 0.5%. Welsh and Maltese ancestries were also present at 0.7%, matching their respective regional averages.

Erina - Green Point ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina-Green Point's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina-Green Point has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (13.9%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.3%). This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is above the national average of 6%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 7.2% to 5.3%, and the 85+ group dropped from 6.8% to 5.2%. By 2041, Erina-Green Point is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 32%, reaching 2,703 people from the current 2,055. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 82% of this growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.