Erina - Green Point
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Erina - Green Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Erina - Green Point's population was 14,734 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure reflects a decrease of 24 people from the 2021 Census total of 14,758, indicating a 0.2% decline since that date. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 14,706 in June 2024 and the addition of 153 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 436 persons per square kilometer, suggesting ample space per person and potential for further development. Conversely, the SA3 area experienced a 2.3% growth during this period, highlighting divergent trends between Erina - Green Point and its broader region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.6% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 using a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Erina - Green Point is expected to increase its population by just below the median of national statistical areas, with an anticipated expansion of 998 persons by 2041, representing a 6.4% total gain over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Erina - Green Point, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Erina-Green Point has experienced approximately 24 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25124 homes were approved, with another three approved in FY-26 so far. The population has declined recently, but development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, benefiting buyers.

Developers target the premium market segment, with new dwellings valued at an average of $494,000. This financial year, $26.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina-Green Point has significantly less development activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although building activity has accelerated in recent years. The area's development activity is also below national averages, reflecting its maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

This marks a significant shift from the existing housing pattern, which is currently 84.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 592 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Erina-Green Point is projected to grow by 944 residents by 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may face growing competition as the population increases.

Erina - Green Point has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 55 projects that may impact the region. Notable ones include the Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, and Broadlands Estate Green Point. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Erina - Green Point demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Erina - Green Point has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.9% as of June 2025.

This is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. As of June 2025, 6,715 residents were in work while workforce participation was 49.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area specializes particularly in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.7% versus the regional average of 7.3%. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the past year, employment increased by 2.3%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment rose by 2.6%, labour force grew by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Erina - Green Point. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Erina - Green Point's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch released postcode-level ATO data for financial year 2022. Erina - Green Point's median income among taxpayers was $50,587 with an average of $70,252. This is above the national average. Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%, current estimates for Erina - Green Point are approximately $56,966 (median) and $79,111 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Erina - Green Point between the 27th and 32nd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 25.2% of residents earn between $400-$799 weekly (3,712 people). This is unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500-$2,999 range. Erina - Green Point exhibits income diversity with 31.0% earning under $800 and 24.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly. Housing affordability pressures are severe; only 83.1% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Erina - Green Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Erina-Green Point, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.6% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Sydney's metropolitan area, where 74.2% were houses and 25.9% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina-Green Point stood at 48.3%, with mortgaged properties at 33.3% and rented ones at 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Sydney's average of $2,150. Weekly rent in Erina-Green Point averaged $410, compared to Sydney's $400. Nationally, Erina-Green Point's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Erina - Green Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 68.6% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households at 29.7% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than Greater Sydney's average of 2.5.

Erina - Green Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 27.0%, substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (24.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of 8 schools operates within Erina - Green Point, educating approximately 5,400 students while the area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1079). The educational mix includes 4 primary, 1 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. The area functions as an education hub with 36.6 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 15.9 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 151 active transport stops operating within Erina - Green Point. These stops are serviced by 136 individual routes, collectively providing 2,658 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 182 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 379 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina - Green Point is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Erina - Green Point faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~8,015 people) have private health cover, a rate higher than that of Greater Sydney. The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (affecting 10.9% of residents) and mental health problems (7.9%). However, 61.5% claim to be free from any medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 32.3% (4,756 people), than Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Senior health outcomes present some difficulties, largely aligning with the overall population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina - Green Point records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina-Green Point's population was found to be roughly in line with the wider region's average regarding cultural diversity, with 77.9% born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.1% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, comprising 60.8%, compared to 53.4% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.1%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.4%).

Notably, South African, Welsh, and Maltese ethnicities had similar representations in Erina-Green Point as in the region at large, with 0.7% each.

Erina - Green Point ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina-Green Point's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina-Green Point has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (13.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.3%). This 75-84 concentration is above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 7.2% to 5.3%, and the 85+ group has dropped from 6.8% to 5.2%. By 2041, Erina-Green Point's age composition is expected to change notably. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 32% (647 people), reaching 2,703 from 2,055. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 82% of the anticipated growth. Meanwhile, both the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.