Erina - Green Point
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Erina - Green Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Erina - Green Point's population was approximately 14,748 as of August 2025, a decrease of 10 people from the 2021 Census figure of 14,758. This decline is inferred from ABS estimates showing an estimated resident population of 14,722 in June 2024 and an additional 152 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was around 436 persons per square kilometer as of August 2025. While Erina - Green Point experienced a 0.1% decline since the census, the broader SA3 area saw a 2.3% growth, indicating differing trends within the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.6% of overall population gains in recent periods for Erina - Green Point. AreaSearch's projections for each SA2 area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

These projections indicate a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with Erina - Green Point expected to expand by 998 persons to 2041, representing a gain of 6.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Erina - Green Point, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Erina - Green Point has received approximately 39 dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides this data on a financial year basis, totaling 196 homes over the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, with one approval so far in FY26. Despite population decline during this period, new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. The average construction cost value of new properties is $697,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

In terms of commercial investment activity, $26.9 million in approvals have been registered this financial year. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point records significantly lower building activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, development activity has increased recently. This is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to more affordable compact options.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 84.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 592 people, reflecting Erina - Green Point's quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 930 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Erina - Green Point has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 46 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include the M1 Pacific Motorway Kariong to Somersby Widening, Central Coast Highway Upgrade - Wamberal to Bateau Bay, Gosford Hospital Redevelopment, and The Elly Extension. Projects of particular relevance are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Erina - Green Point demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Erina - Green Point has a skilled workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. As of June 2025, 6,715 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.3%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Erina - Green Point was 49.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.7% versus the regional average of 7.3%. The ratio of workers to residents was 0.7 as at the Census, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, while labour force increased by 2.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, lagging the national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that Erina - Green Point's local employment mix could grow by approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch released postcode-level ATO data for financial year 2022. Erina - Green Point's median income among taxpayers was $50,587, with an average of $70,252. This is higher than the national average but lower than Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to March 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $55,949 (median) and $77,699 (average). Census data shows Erina - Green Point's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly between the 27th and 32nd percentiles. The largest income segment is 25.2% earning $400-$799 weekly, compared to the regional trend of 30.9% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly. Income diversity is notable with 31.0% earning under $800 weekly and 24.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Erina - Green Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Erina - Green Point, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.5% houses and 16.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina - Green Point stood at 48.3%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (33.3%) or rented (18.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Erina - Green Point's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Erina - Green Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.6% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households at 29.7% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Erina - Green Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 27.0%, substantially below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 24.3%. Educational participation is high at 29.3%, including 9.8% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

There are 8 schools operating within Erina - Green Point, educating approximately 5,400 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1079) and functions as an education hub with 36.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.0.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Erina - Green Point indicates 151 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes totalling 136 individual routes. Collectively, these routes facilitate 2,658 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 182 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 379 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina - Green Point is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Erina - Green Point faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~8,022 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is very high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (7.9%). Around 61.5% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 32.3% (4,760 people), than Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely mirroring the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina - Green Point records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina-Green Point, surveyed in June-August 2016, had a cultural diversity similar to the wider region's average. Around 77.9% of its population was born in Australia, with 89.9% being citizens and 91.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated Erina-Green Point's religious landscape, comprising 60.8%, compared to 53.4% across Greater Sydney.

The top ancestry groups were English (32.1%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.4%). Notably, South African ancestry was overrepresented at 0.7%, matching the regional average for Welsh (0.7%) and Maltese (0.7%) ancestries.

Erina - Green Point ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina - Green Point's median age is 50 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (13.9%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.3%). This 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 12.0% to 13.9%, while the proportion aged 35 to 44 has increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 7.2% to 5.3%, and those aged 85+ have dropped from 6.8% to 5.2%. By the year 2041, Erina - Green Point's age composition is expected to change notably. The number of residents aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow by 31%, reaching 2,703 from 2,057. This demographic shift is led by the aging of its current population, with residents aged 65 and older representing 82% of anticipated growth. Conversely, both age groups 15-24 and 5-14 are expected to see reduced numbers.