Erina - Green Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Erina - Green Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to investigations by AreaSearch, the resident population of Erina - Green Point stands at approximately 14,644 as of May 2026. This represents a contraction of 114 residents (0.8%) from the 14,758 individuals recorded during the 2021 Census. This shift is calculated utilizing the ABS estimated resident population of 14,644 for June 2025 alongside 153 validated new addresses registered after the Census. The resulting population density is 433 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density with options for prospective expansion. In recent times, population increases were mostly driven by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 62.0% of the overall population rise.

Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, are used for each SA2. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 using a 2021 baseline are applied. The age-specific growth trajectories from these datasets are projected forward for the years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic forecasts suggest expansion will track slightly under the national median, with the local population expected to increase by 889 residents by 2041 relative to the newest annual ERP, representing a 6.1% overall growth rate over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Erina - Green Point, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Approval figures show that Erina - Green Point averages approximately 24 residential approvals annually, with a total of 124 properties approved during the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, and 10 approvals registered during FY-26 so far. Given the recent population decline, the pace of construction has been relatively sufficient, which benefits buyers, and new residences average a build cost of $494,000, indicating that developers are focusing on the higher-end luxury market. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $26.9 million during this financial year, showing a moderate level of business development.

Residential development in Erina - Green Point is low relative to Greater Sydney, tracking 56.0% below the regional per capita average. This limited supply typically supports pricing and demand for existing houses, even though construction has picked up lately. The rate of build approvals also sits below the national benchmark, reflecting a mature market and probable planning barriers. The newly approved supply is split between detached houses at 53.0% and attached buildings at 47.0%, with an increasing proportion of townhouses and apartments offering options across varying budgets, from family residences to smaller, affordable units. This represents a clear shift from the current housing stock, which is 84.0% detached houses, pointing to a shortage of vacant land and changing buyer preferences for affordability and lifestyle. The ratio of 591 people for every single dwelling approval highlights the quiet nature of local construction.

Based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch, the population of Erina - Green Point is projected to grow by 889 residents by 2041. The current pace of building is keeping up reasonably well with this projected growth, though purchasing competition could intensify as more people move to the area.

Erina - Green Point has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development initiatives are key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 47 projects expected to influence the local area. Notable initiatives include the Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, the Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, Broadlands Estate Green Point, and the Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades, with details on the most significant projects provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Erina - Green Point ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

The workforce in Erina - Green Point is highly qualified, with strong representation in key service industries, an unemployment rate of only 1.8%, and a 3.5% increase in local employment over the past year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 6,830, while the unemployment rate was 2.3% lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%. Workforce participation is comparatively low, standing at 56.9% against the Greater Sydney average of 69.1%. Census data indicates that a notable 37.0% of the working population operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance is highly concentrated locally, with its share of employment reaching 1.4 times the regional proportion. In contrast, finance & insurance is underrepresented, making up 3.7% of local workers compared to 7.3% regionally. At the time of the Census, the area had a ratio of 0.7 jobs for every resident, suggesting a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities.

An analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch shows that during the 12-month period, employment expanded by 3.5% while the total labour force increased by 3.4%, which kept the unemployment rate steady. By comparison, Greater Sydney experienced a 1.9% rise in employment, a 1.9% increase in the labour force, and a slight reduction in unemployment. Employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional perspectives on future hiring needs in Erina - Green Point. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential growth. Across Australia, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary significantly by sector. Applying these trends to the local industry mix suggests employment in Erina - Green Point could grow by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, assuming a simple weighted extrapolation based on industry shares without adjusting for local population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to the latest ATO postcode statistics for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Erina - Green Point SA2 recorded a median income of $54,536 and an average income of $72,266. These figures exceed national benchmarks, but are lower than the Greater Sydney median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the 2023 financial year, current income estimates for March 2026 are approximately $60,164 for the median and $79,724 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in the area were modest, ranking in the 26th to 31st percentiles. The weekly earnings distribution is dominated by the $400 - 799 range, which accounts for 25.2% of residents (3,690 people), differing from regional patterns where 30.9% of taxpayers earn between $1,500 - 2,999. The area displays a diverse financial profile, with 31.0% of earners receiving under $800 weekly and 24.7% earning more than $3,000. Housing costs consume a significant portion of income, leaving only 83.1% remaining, which ranks in the 30th percentile, while the SEIFA index for income places the area in the 6th decile.

Erina - Green Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the time of the latest Census, the housing mix in Erina - Green Point consisted of 83.5% standalone houses and 16.6% alternative housing styles, such as townhouses, apartments, or other structures. This differs from the wider Sydney metropolitan area, which recorded 55.9% standalone houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership rates in the area were high, with 48.3% of homes owned outright, while the remaining properties were occupied by households with a mortgage (33.3%) or tenants (18.4%). The median mortgage payment of $2,167 per month was lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427, and the median rent was $410 per week compared to $470 in Sydney metro. At the national level, local mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents exceed the national median of $375.

Erina - Green Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of local households at 68.6%, consisting of couples with children at 29.0%, couples without children at 29.2%, and single-parent households at 9.8%. The remaining 31.4% are non-family households, which are dominated by lone-person households at 29.7%, alongside group households at 1.6%. The median household size is 2.4 residents, which is smaller than the average of 2.7 recorded across Greater Sydney.

Erina - Green Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment levels present specific challenges, as the proportion of residents with university degrees (27.0%) sits well below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This highlights a potential area for targeted educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 5.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Vocational and technical education is well represented, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding a non-school qualification, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (24.3%).

Enrolment rates are high, with 29.3% of the local population actively participating in academic programs. This cohort includes 9.8% in primary schools, 8.4% in high schools, and 4.7% in tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport options in Erina - Green Point include 155 active stops serviced by buses. These stops accommodate 136 distinct routes, which provide a total of 2,766 passenger services each week. Access to transport is highly rated, with the average distance to the nearest stop being 182 meters. Given the residential nature of the suburb, the majority of working residents commute to other areas, with private vehicles being the primary mode of travel for 92% of commuters. Households own an average of 1.3 cars. According to the 2021 Census, 37.0% of residents worked from home, a figure that may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

Daily bus services average 395 trips across all routes, representing approximately 17 weekly services per stop. The map displays the 100 transport stops located closest to the center of the area.

Health performance in Erina - Green Point is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health assessments indicate that Erina - Green Point faces notable challenges, particularly regarding mortality rates and the prevalence of chronic illnesses among both younger and older residents. The proportion of residents with private health insurance is relatively high at approximately 55% of the population (~8,039 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues locally, affecting 10.9% and 7.9% of the population, respectively. A total of 61.5% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health indicators for the working-age cohort are generally standard. Residents aged 65 and older make up 32.1% of the population (4,696 people), which is significantly higher than the Greater Sydney average of 15.5%. Health outcomes for this older demographic present certain difficulties, with national performance metrics aligning closely with broader trends.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina - Green Point records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity metrics show the area is generally consistent with regional averages, with Australian-born residents making up 77.9% of the population, citizens representing 89.9%, and English-only speakers accounting for 91.1% of households. Christianity is the primary religious affiliation, practiced by 60.8% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

Regarding ancestral origins, the most common backgrounds reported in Erina - Green Point are English at 32.1% of the population, which is higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian at 26.3%, which is higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish at 9.4%. Other ethnic lineages show minor variations, with South Australian backgrounds representing 0.7% of the population (versus 0.5% regionally), Welsh backgrounds at 0.7% (versus 0.4%), and Maltese backgrounds at 0.7% (versus 1.0%).

Erina - Green Point ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of residents is 50 years, which is higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, there is a larger proportion of residents aged 75 - 84 (13.9%) and a smaller percentage of young adults aged 25 - 34 (5.4%). The concentration of residents aged 75 - 84 is higher than the national figure of 6.1%. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 grew from 12.0% to 13.9%, and the 35 to 44 cohort rose from 10.2% to 11.4%. In contrast, the 25 to 34 group fell from 7.2% to 5.4%, and the 85+ cohort decreased from 6.8% to 5.3%. Significant demographic shifts are projected by 2041, with the cohort aged 85 and over expected to increase by 80% (614 people), rising from 773 to 1,388. This aging trend is further highlighted by the fact that residents aged 65 and over are projected to account for 81% of total growth, while the population in the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age brackets is expected to contract.