Erina - Green Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Erina - Green Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Erina - Green Point's population was 14,734 as of November 2025, a decrease of 24 people from the 2021 Census figure of 14,758. This decline is inferred from an estimated resident population of 14,706 in June 2024 and 153 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 436 persons per square kilometer. While Erina - Green Point saw a 0.2% decrease since the census, the surrounding SA3 area grew by 2.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.6% of recent population gains in the area. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with Erina - Green Point expected to expand by 998 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 6.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Erina - Green Point, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Erina - Green Point has seen approximately 24 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25124 homes were approved, with a further 5 approved in FY-26. Despite a declining population in recent years, this level of development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, potentially benefiting buyers.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $494,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $26.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point has significantly less development activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although building activity has accelerated in recent years. The area's development activity is also below average nationally, reflecting its maturity and potentially indicating planning constraints. New development consists of 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points.

This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 84.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population density is 592 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Erina - Green Point is expected to grow by 944 residents through to 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may face growing competition as population increases.

Erina - Green Point has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 55 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, and Broadlands Estate Green Point. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Erina - Green Point demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Erina - Green Point has a skilled labour force with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 1.9%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. As of September 2025, 6,719 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.3% and workforce participation at 49.0%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specialises in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.7% versus the regional average of 7.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating higher-than-average local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, labour force grew by 3.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% and unemployment increase by 0.2 percentage points. Statewide in NSW, as of 25-November-25, employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Erina - Green Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. Erina - Green Point SA2's median income among taxpayers was $50,587, with an average of $70,252. This is above the national average, which was $49,316 and $77,552 respectively in that year. Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average of $80,856 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Erina - Green Point would be approximately $56,966 (median) and $79,111 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census showed household incomes in Erina - Green Point ranked between the 26th and 31st percentiles. Family incomes fell within the same range, while personal incomes were at the 30th percentile. The earnings profile indicated that 25.2% of residents earned between $400 and $799 weekly (3,712 people). This differs from regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Income diversity was notable in Erina - Green Point, with 31.0% earning under $800 weekly and 24.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, suggesting a mixed socioeconomic profile. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Erina - Green Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Erina - Green Point, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Sydney metropolitan areas' 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina - Green Point stood at 48.3%, with mortgaged properties making up 33.3% and rented dwellings accounting for 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,150. Weekly rent in Erina - Green Point was $410, compared to Sydney's $400. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Erina - Green Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.6% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households at 29.7% and group households at 1.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Erina - Green Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 27.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (24.3%). Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (9.8%), secondary education (8.4%), and tertiary education (4.7%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 151 active public transport stops operating within Erina - Green Point area. These stops serve a variety of bus routes, totaling 136 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 2,658 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to public transport is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 182 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 379 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina - Green Point is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Erina - Green Point.

Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~8,015 people) have private health cover, which is notably higher than the Greater Sydney average. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (7.9%). However, 61.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. Erina - Green Point has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.3% (4,756 people), compared to the Greater Sydney average of 24.5%. Health outcomes among seniors broadly align with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina - Green Point records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina-Green Point's cultural diversity aligns with the broader area, where 77.9% were born in Australia, 89.9% are citizens, and 91.1% speak English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion here, at 60.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 53.4%. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.1%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.4%).

Some ethnic groups show notable differences: South African residents are 0.7% (regional average is 0.5%), Welsh residents are also 0.7%, and Maltese residents are at 0.7%.

Erina - Green Point ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina - Green Point's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (13.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.3%). This concentration of residents aged 75-84 is well above the national average of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 12.0% to 13.9%, while the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 7.2% to 5.3%, and the proportion of residents aged 85+ has dropped from 6.8% to 5.2%. By 2041, Erina - Green Point is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the number of residents aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow by 32%, reaching 2,703 from 2,055. This growth is primarily driven by demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older representing 82% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, both the 15-24 age group and the 5-14 age group are expected to see reduced numbers.