Erina - Green Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Erina - Green Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Erina - Green Point's population is around 14,745 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 13 people (0.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,758 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,680 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 153 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 436 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 64.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 998 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 6.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Erina - Green Point, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Erina - Green Point has experienced around 24 dwellings receiving development approval per year, with 124 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 7 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $494,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $26.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point has significantly less development activity (56.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New development consists of 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 84.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated count of 592 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Erina - Green Point is expected to grow by 933 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Erina - Green Point has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 55 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, and Broadlands Estate Green Point, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Erina - Green Point ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Erina - Green Point possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 1.8%, and 3.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,776 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation lags significantly (56.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 37.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.7% versus the regional average of 7.3%. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 3.6% alongside the labour force increasing by 3.5%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. This contrasts with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.2%, the labour force grew by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Erina - Green Point. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Erina - Green Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Erina - Green Point SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,536, with an average of $72,266. This is above the national average, and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $59,368 (median) and $78,669 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Erina - Green Point, between the 26th and 31st percentiles. The earnings profile shows the $400 - 799 bracket dominates with 25.2% of residents (3,715 people), unlike trends at regional levels where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Erina - Green Point exhibits notable income diversity with 31.0% earning under $800 weekly while 24.7% exceed $3,000, creating a mixed socioeconomic profile. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 30th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Erina - Green Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Erina - Green Point, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.5% houses and 16.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Erina - Green Point was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 48.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.3%) or rented (18.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $410, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Erina - Green Point's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Erina - Green Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 68.6% of all households, comprising 29.0% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households at 29.7% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Erina - Green Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (27.0%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (24.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 155 active transport stops operating within Erina - Green Point, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 136 individual routes, collectively providing 2,766 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 182 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. A high 37.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 395 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Erina - Green Point is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Erina - Green Point, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~8,095 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.9% and 7.9% of residents, respectively, while 61.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 32.8% of residents aged 65 and over (4,836 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina - Green Point records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina - Green Point is roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 77.9% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Erina - Green Point is Christianity, which makes up 60.8% of people in Erina - Green Point. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Erina - Green Point are English, comprising 32.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 26.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 9.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: South Australian is notably overrepresented at 0.7% of Erina - Green Point (vs 0.5% regionally), Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.4%) and Maltese at 0.7% (vs 1.0%).

Erina - Green Point ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina - Green Point's median age of 50 years stands significantly above Greater Sydney's 37 as well as well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point has a higher concentration of 75 - 84 residents (14.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (5.0%). This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 12.0% to 14.4% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 7.2% to 5.0% and the 85+ group dropped from 6.8% to 5.2%. By 2041, Erina - Green Point is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 80% (613 people), reaching 1,382 from 768. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 81% of anticipated growth. Conversely, both 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups will see reduced numbers.