Erina - Green Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Erina - Green Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Erina - Green Point's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 14,745, a decrease of 13 people from the 2021 Census figure of 14,758. This change is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 14,680 in June 2024 and an additional 153 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 436 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.6% of overall population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the population is projected to increase by approximately 998 persons, reflecting a gain of about 6.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Erina - Green Point, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Erina - Green Point has seen approximately 24 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25124 homes were approved, with a further six approved in FY-26 as of now. The population has been declining recently, yet the development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, which is beneficial for buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $494,000, indicating that developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $26.9 million, showing moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina - Green Point has significantly less development activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although building activity has picked up in recent years. This activity is also below national averages, suggesting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points.

This shift marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 84.0% houses, indicating diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 592 people, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Erina - Green Point is projected to grow by 933 residents by 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with this projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population increases.

Erina - Green Point has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence performance. AreaSearch identified 55 potential impact projects. Key ones are Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, and Broadlands Estate Green Point. Most relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Erina - Green Point demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Erina - Green Point has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 1.9%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%.

As of September 2025, 6,719 residents are employed and the unemployment rate is 2.3%. Workforce participation stands at 55.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census data indicates that 37.0% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, finance & insurance shows lower representation at 3.7%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.7% while the labour force grew by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, labour force grow by 2.4%, and unemployment increase by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Erina - Green Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Erina - Green Point SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $54,536 and an average of $72,266. This is above the national average. Greater Sydney's median was $60,817 with an average of $83,003. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,368 (median) and $78,669 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. The 2021 Census data ranks Erina - Green Point's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 26th and 31st percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 25.2% of residents (3,715 people) fall into the $400 - 799 bracket, unlike regional trends where 30.9% are in the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Income diversity is notable with 31.0% earning under $800 weekly and 24.7% exceeding $3,000. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Erina - Green Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census data, Erina - Green Point's dwelling structures comprised 83.5% houses and 16.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina - Green Point stood at 48.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.3% and rented ones at 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, below Sydney metro's $2,427, while the median weekly rent figure was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Erina - Green Point's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $410.

Erina - Green Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.6% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households accounting for 29.7% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Erina - Green Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 27.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (24.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 155 active transport stops operating within Erina - Green Point. These stops are serviced by 136 individual routes, collectively providing 2,766 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 182 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward and car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high 37.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 395 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Erina - Green Point is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Erina - Green Point faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age cohorts exhibit notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 55% (~8,095 people) of the total population has private health cover, compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (7.9%). Conversely, 61.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are generally typical. However, Erina - Green Point has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (32.8%, or 4,836 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they align broadly with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina - Green Point records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina-Green Point's cultural diversity is comparable to the wider region's average, with 77.9% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Erina-Green Point, accounting for 60.8%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.1%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (9.4%).

Notably, South African, Welsh, and Maltese ethnicities have higher representations in Erina-Green Point than the regional averages: South African at 0.7% vs 0.5%, Welsh at 0.7% vs 0.4%, and Maltese at 0.7% vs 1.0%.

Erina - Green Point ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina-Green Point's median age is 50 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina-Green Point has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.0%). This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 12.0% to 14.4%, while the proportion of those aged 35 to 44 has increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 7.2% to 5.0%, and the proportion of those aged 85 and above has dropped from 6.8% to 5.2%. By 2041, Erina-Green Point is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 80%, reaching 1,382 from 768. This demographic aging trend will see residents aged 65 and older represent 81% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, both the 15-24 age group and the 25-34 age group are expected to decrease in number.