Kincumber - Picketts Valley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kincumber - Picketts Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's population is around 7,604 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 11 people (0.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,615 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,590 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 648 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to reduce by 272 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to grow by 379 people. See the age section for more details.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has averaged around 7 new dwelling approvals annually, totalling 38 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $416,000—slightly above the regional average—suggesting a focus on quality developments. Additionally, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Kincumber - Picketts Valley has significantly less development activity (74.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This activity is similarly below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Meanwhile, new construction has consisted entirely of detached houses, preserving the area's low-density nature, with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (66.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes. The estimated count of 1492 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Kincumber - Picketts Valley may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development, and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Kincumber - Picketts Valley significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Kincumber - Picketts Valley possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.3%, and 3.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,396 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation lags significantly (54.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 30.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.1% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 3.4% alongside the labour force increasing by 3.5%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kincumber - Picketts Valley. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kincumber - Picketts Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Kincumber - Picketts Valley SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $46,660 and an average of $64,251 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,794 (median) and $69,944 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley all fall between the 23rd and 26th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 26.4% of locals (2,007 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Kincumber - Picketts Valley, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 66.4% houses and 33.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kincumber - Picketts Valley was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 39.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (39.6%) or rented (21.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,100, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 66.8% of all households, comprising 27.8% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 1.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (21.3%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (29.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 81 active transport stops operating within Kincumber - Picketts Valley, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 68 individual routes, collectively providing 851 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 197 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. A high 30.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 121 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kincumber - Picketts Valley demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,893 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.7% and 8.7% of residents, respectively, while 60.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 33.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,520 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber - Picketts Valley was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is Christianity, which makes up 57.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kincumber - Picketts Valley are English, comprising 33.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 28.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 9.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Hungarian is notably overrepresented at 0.4% of Kincumber - Picketts Valley (vs 0.3% regionally), Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.4%) and Scottish at 8.7% (vs 4.8%).

Kincumber - Picketts Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 47 years, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's median age is considerably higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and also substantially exceeds the 38-year national average. The 75 - 84 age group shows strong representation at 12.9% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.5%. This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 11.3% to 12.9% of the population, while the 85+ cohort increased from 6.8% to 7.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.3% to 7.5% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.7% to 10.7%. Demographic modeling suggests Kincumber - Picketts Valley's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 56%, adding 337 residents to reach 937. Senior residents (65+) will drive 100% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 cohorts.