Kincumber - Picketts Valley
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kincumber - Picketts Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's population was around 7,599 as of Nov 2025. This reflected a decrease of 16 people, or 0.2%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,615 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,590 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 648 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. While Kincumber - Picketts Valley experienced a 0.2% decline since census, the SA3 area achieved 2.3% growth, highlighting divergent population trends. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to reduce by 272 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to grow by 379 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber-Picketts Valley has averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 38 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. The population has decreased during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $416,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

In FY26, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber-Picketts Valley has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. The area's development activity is also under the national average, indicating its established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New construction has been entirely comprised of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

This trend favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (66.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes. The estimated count of 1492 people per dwelling approval reflects the area's quiet, low activity development environment. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Kincumber-Picketts Valley may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber (scheduled for completion in 2023), Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development (commencing in late 2022), and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades (initiation planned for early 2023).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber - Picketts Valley well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has a skilled workforce with high representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of June 2025, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. There were 3,401 residents employed by June 2025, with workforce participation at 50.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has a particularly high share of employment, at 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.1%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force grew by 2.7%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kincumber - Picketts Valley's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber - Picketts Valley had a median taxpayer income of $43,267 and an average of $64,025 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are comparable to national averages but lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income could be approximately $48,723 and the average around $72,099, based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. In Kincumber - Picketts Valley, household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly between the 23rd and 27th percentiles in the 2021 Census figures. Income distribution shows that 26.4% of locals (2,006 people) fell into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 30.9% occupied this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kincumber - Picketts Valley, as per the latest Census, comprised 66.4% houses and 33.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber - Picketts Valley was at 39.0%, with the rest being mortgaged (39.6%) or rented (21.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, matching Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.8% of all households, including 27.8% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for 33.2%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area has lower university qualification rates at 21.3% compared to Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, with 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,656 students as of the provided date. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1037) with balanced educational opportunities. There are 2 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 21.8 places per 100 residents, indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber-Picketts Valley has 79 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 68 different routes that together facilitate 815 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 197 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 116 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber - Picketts Valley faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has approximately 51% of its total population (~3,890 people) with private health cover, which is slightly lower than the average SA2 area's rate of 54.7%. This compares to Greater Sydney's overall rate of 54.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7% and 8.7% of residents respectively. Around 60.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 64.8%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 32.2% (2,446 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber-Pickett's Valley, surveyed in 2016, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 82.4%. Citizenship was high at 91.2%, and English-only speakers were 95.0%. Christianity was the primary religion (57.5%).

Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 0.2%. The top ancestral groups were English (33.0%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (9.5%). Hungarian, Welsh, and Scottish groups showed notable representation: Hungarian at 0.4%, Welsh at 0.7%, and Scottish at 8.7%.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber - Picketts Valley's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 12.6% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney's figure and significantly higher than the national average of 6%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that this age group has grown from 11.3% to 12.6%. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort is less prevalent at 8.1%, having declined from 9.3% since the last census. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley's age profile. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 62%, adding 360 residents to reach a total of 937. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, highlighting the trend towards demographic aging. Meanwhile, populations in the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups are projected to decline.