Kincumber - Picketts Valley
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kincumber - Picketts Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's population is around 7599 as of Aug 2025. This reflects a decrease of 16 people (0.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7615 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7590 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 648 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. While Kincumber - Picketts Valley experienced a 0.2% decline since census, the SA3 area achieved 2.3% growth, highlighting divergent population trends. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to reduce by 272 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to grow by 379 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber-Picketts Valley averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 38 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $341,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Sydney, where Kincumber-Picketts Valley has 74.0% less development activity per person. The limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings, with this activity also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. All new construction in the area has been comprised of detached houses, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. This emphasis on detached housing is more pronounced than current patterns suggest (66.0% at Census), indicating robust demand for family homes. The estimated count of 1492 people per dwelling approval reflects the area's quiet, low activity development environment.

With stable or declining population forecasts, Kincumber-Picketts Valley may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber (scheduled for completion in late 2023), Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development (commenced on 15th March 2022), and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades (initially proposed in May 2021).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber - Picketts Valley well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2%.

As of June 2025, 3,401 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 50.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.1% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, labour force by 2.7%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kincumber - Picketts Valley's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber - Picketts Valley had a median taxpayer income of $43,267 and an average of $64,025 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This was comparable to national averages but lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,723 (median) and $72,099 (average), based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranked modestly between the 23rd and 27th percentiles. Income distribution showed that 26.4% of locals (2,006 people) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the broader area where 30.9% occupied this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kincumber - Picketts Valley, as per the latest Census, 66.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 33.6% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber - Picketts Valley stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented ones at 21.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. Median weekly rent in the area was $400, matching Sydney metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's median mortgage repayment exceeded the Australian average of $1,863.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 27.8% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area has educational challenges with university qualification rates at 21.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (29.1%).

Educational participation is high at 27.5%, including primary education (9.3%), secondary education (7.9%), and tertiary education (3.9%). Kincumber - Picketts Valley's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,656 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1037). Education provision is balanced with 2 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds residential needs (21.8 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 15.9), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the area encompassing Kincumber - Picketts Valley shows that there are 79 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a variety of bus services, which are serviced by 68 different routes. Together, these routes facilitate a total of 815 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to public transport in this region is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 197 meters away from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 116 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber - Picketts Valley faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has private health cover at approximately 51% of its total population (~3,890 people), which is slightly lower than the average SA2 area's rate of 54.7%. This compares to Greater Sydney's overall rate of 54.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Kincumber - Picketts Valley are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7% and 8.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 60.8% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's rate of 64.8%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 32.2%, or approximately 2,446 people, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 24.5%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they are broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber-Pickett's Valley, as per the census conducted on 29 August 2016, exhibited a below-average level of cultural diversity. 82.4% of its residents were born in Australia, with 91.2% being citizens and 95.0% speaking English exclusively at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion, comprising 57.5% of the population.

Notably, Judaism, although a minority, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to the region's average of 0.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.0%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (9.5%). Some ethnic groups showed notable variations: Hungarians were slightly overrepresented at 0.4% versus the regional average of 0.3%, Welsh showed parity at 0.7%, while Scottish residents were moderately overrepresented at 8.7% compared to the region's 7.9%.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber - Picketts Valley's median age is 47 years, which is considerably higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group has a strong representation at 12.6%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.1%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 11.3% to 12.6%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.3% to 8.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Kincumber - Picketts Valley's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 62%, adding 360 residents to reach 937. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 65-74 age cohorts.