Kincumber - Picketts Valley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kincumber - Picketts Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

AreaSearch's analysis shows Kincumber - Picketts Valley had a population of around 7,604 as of February 2026. This marks a decrease of 11 people from the 2021 Census figure of 7,615, reflecting an estimated resident population of 7,590 in June 2024 and validation of five new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 648 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

By 2041, the population is projected to decline by 272 persons overall, but the 85 and over age group is expected to grow by 379 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 38 homes. As of FY26, three approvals have been recorded. Despite a falling population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $416,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

This financial year, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber - Picketts Valley has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. When compared to national averages, the area's development activity is also below, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations. All new construction in the area has been detached houses, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

This preference for detached housing (66.0% at Census) demonstrates robust demand for family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1492 people, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. With stable or declining population forecasts, Kincumber - Picketts Valley may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber on 2018-06-07, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development starting in late 2019, and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades commencing on 2020-03-15.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber - Picketts Valley well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3%. As of September 2025, 3,367 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is at 54.4%, significantly below Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 30.9% of residents work from home. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a high specialization in health care & social assistance (1.4 times the regional level) but lower representation in professional & technical services (6.1% vs regional average 11.5%).

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force by 2.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and unemployment increase of 0.2 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6%, with Kincumber - Picketts Valley projected to grow by 6.9%. Over ten years, national employment is forecast to increase by 13.7%, and locally by 14.2%. These projections are based on simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Kincumber - Picketts Valley SA2 is $46,660 and the average is $64,251 according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,794 (median) and $69,944 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley fall between the 23rd and 26th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 26.4% of locals (2,007 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to the broader area where 30.9% fall within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kincumber - Picketts Valley's dwellings comprised 66.4% houses and 33.6% other dwellings as of the latest Census. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Kincumber - Picketts Valley was 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented ones at 21.4%. As of the latest data, median monthly mortgage repayments were $2,100 in the area, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro's figure of $470. Nationally, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.8% of all households, including 27.8% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for 33.2%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 29.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.5% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has 81 active public transport stops. These are served by 68 different bus routes, offering a total of 851 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop is 197 meters. Most residents commute outside the area, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 93%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 30.9% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 121 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 10 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kincumber-Picketts Valley shows superior health outcomes, as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~3893 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Common medical conditions include arthritis (11.7%) and mental health issues (8.7%), with 60.8% claiming to be free of medical ailments compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 33.1% (~2520 people) aged 65 and over, exceeding Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber-Picketts Valley, surveyed in August 2016, had low cultural diversity with 82.4% born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion (57.5%). Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

Top ancestry groups were English (33.0%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (9.5%), all higher than regional averages. Notable ethnic group divergences included Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), Welsh (0.7% vs 0.4%), and Scottish (8.7% vs 4.8%).

Kincumber - Picketts Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has a median age of 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age group of 75-84 years shows strong representation at 12.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.5%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is higher than the national average of 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 11.3% to 12.9%, and the 85+ cohort has increased from 6.8% to 7.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.3% to 7.5%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Kincumber - Picketts Valley's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 85+ cohort projected to grow by 56%, adding 337 residents to reach 937. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 cohorts.