Kincumber - Picketts Valley

Kincumber - Picketts Valley is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Kincumber-Picketts Valley's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was around 7,636 by May 2026. This figure shows an increase of 21 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,615. The growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 7,634 in June 2025 and an additional 8 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 651 persons per square kilometer. Kincumber-Picketts Valley's 0.3% growth since the Census places it within 2.3 percentage points of its SA3 area (2.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area's population is projected to decrease by 325 persons. However, specific age cohorts like the 85 and over group are expected to grow, with a projected increase of 370 people in this cohort.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber-Picketts Valley has averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 38 homes. In the current financial year FY-26, six approvals have been recorded to date. Despite a population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new properties constructed is $416,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

This financial year, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber-Picketts Valley has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. When measured against the national average, this activity is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. All new construction has been comprised of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

This preference for detached housing is more pronounced than current patterns suggest (66.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. The estimated population count of 1492 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Kincumber-Picketts Valley may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may impact this region. Major initiatives include Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development, and Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Kincumber - Picketts Valley significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Kincumber-Picketts Valley has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of December 2025, which is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.4%.

There were 3,396 residents employed while workforce participation stood at 55.0%, significantly lagging behind Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A high proportion of residents, 30.9%, worked from home according to Census responses. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.1% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 3.4%, labour force grew by 3.5%, and unemployment remained essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% with a marginal rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kincumber-Picketts Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Kincumber - Picketts Valley SA2 was $46,660 and the average was $64,251 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By March 2026, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest the median would be approximately $51,475 and the average around $70,882. In 2021 Census figures, incomes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley fall between the 23rd and 26th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income cohort spans 26.4% of locals (2,015 people) earning $1,500 to $2,999 per week, similar to broader area patterns where 30.9% fall into this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kincumber - Picketts Valley's latest Census data shows 66.4% houses and 33.6% other dwellings, compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area was 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented at 21.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's mortgage repayments are higher at $2,100 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, consisting of 27.8% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (9.3%), secondary (7.9%), and tertiary (3.9%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has 81 active public transport stops offering various bus services. These stops are served by 68 unique routes that facilitate a total of 851 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 197 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, primarily using cars (93%). On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census, 30.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 121 trips per day, resulting in approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kincumber-Picketts Valley demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 51% of the total population (~3,909 people) has private health cover, which is relatively low compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7% and 8.7% of residents respectively. 60.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 31.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,409 people), which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber-Picketts Valley was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 82.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home as of the 2016 Census. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kincumber-Picketts Valley, comprising 57.5% of people. Judaism, however, was notably overrepresented, making up 0.3% of the population compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney during the same period.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three groups in Kincumber-Picketts Valley were English at 33.0%, Australian at 28.7%, and Irish at 9.5%. These figures were substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 19.0%, 17.8%, and 6.4%. Additionally, Hungarian was notably overrepresented at 0.4% compared to the regional average of 0.3%, Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.4%), and Scottish at 8.7% (vs 4.8%).

Kincumber - Picketts Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber - Picketts Valley's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The population aged 75-84 makes up 11.7%, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's percentage but lower than the national average of 6.1%. The 25-34 age group comprises 7.9% compared to Greater Sydney. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 85+ age group has increased from 6.8% to 8.1%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 9.3% to 7.9%. The 55-64 age group has also dropped, from 11.7% to 10.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley's age profile. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 56%, adding 345 residents to reach a total of 963. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups.