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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is $1.24m, with units at $715k. House values have moved 2.8% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Kincumber - Picketts Valley has an estimated 7,636 residents. That puts 652 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Kincumber - Picketts Valley is estimated at approximately 7,636 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 21 individuals (0.3%) from the 2021 Census, which counted 7,615 people. This shift is derived from the ABS estimated resident population of 7,634 in June 2025 combined with 8 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This population level yields a density of 651 persons per square kilometer, indicating substantial personal space and capacity for potential growth. The post-census expansion of 0.3% lags the broader SA3 region (2.6%) by 2.3 percentage points, displaying competitive underlying growth dynamics.
The expansion was primarily driven by overseas migration, which acted as the sole source of population increases during recent periods. Projections from ABS/Geoscience Australia released in 2024, utilising 2022 as the base year, are adopted for each SA2 area. For SA2 areas without this coverage, figures are sourced from the 2022 NSW State Government projections using a 2021 base year. Growth rates for different age cohorts derived from these datasets are applied to all regions for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic trends over this timeframe, the model predicts a population contraction, with a loss of 325 persons by 2041. Conversely, expansion is projected in certain age brackets, particularly the 85 and over group, which is expected to rise by 370 people. See the age section for more details.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
38 new dwellings have been approved in Kincumber - Picketts Valley over the past five years, an average of 7 a year. That is 1.0 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 8, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Kincumber - Picketts Valley averages approximately 7 residential building approvals annually, accumulating 38 new homes over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26, 8 approvals have been logged. As the population decreased in the recent period, the volume of housing supply has remained sufficient for demand, maintaining a balanced market with options for buyers, while new residences carry an average construction value of $416,000—slightly higher than the regional benchmark—pointing to a focus on premium projects. Furthermore, commercial approvals of $873,000 have been logged this financial year, showing very low commercial development activity.
Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber - Picketts Valley exhibits very low development intensity (74.0% below the regional average per capita). This constrained supply pipeline generally helps maintain demand and prices for existing houses. The level of activity also falls below the national average, highlighting the established profile of the community and pointing to possible planning constraints. Additionally, all new residential builds consisted of detached homes, maintaining the low-density character of the area with an emphasis on stand-alone housing to attract buyers looking for space. The share of new detached construction exceeds the current housing profile (66.0% at Census), showing persistent demand for single-family residences despite density trends. The ratio of 1494 residents for every single dwelling approval highlights the quiet nature of local development. With population projections remaining flat or trending downward, Kincumber - Picketts Valley will likely face reduced pressure on housing, supporting favorable conditions for purchasers.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Kincumber - Picketts Valley
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Kincumber - Picketts Valley, worth an estimated $12 million. A further 70 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $4.4 billion. 11 are already under construction and 14 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and council planning schemes strongly affect area performance. AreaSearch has identified 4 key projects likely to impact the community. These notable projects include Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber, Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development, and Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades, with details provided below for those of most significance.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Green Point Shopping Village Expansion
Approved expansion and refurbishment of Green Point Shopping Village including additional retail tenancies, upgraded public amenities, improved parking and site improvements. No evidence of construction commencement was identified from official sources as of July 2026.
Wamberal Community Park Upgrade
Major upgrade to Wamberal Community Park including new playground equipment, improved sports facilities, additional parking, and enhanced landscaping. The project aims to provide better recreational facilities for the growing local community.
Wamberal Road Hazard Reduction Works
Road safety improvement works along Wamberal Road including installation of safety barriers, improved signage, line marking upgrades, and vegetation clearing to enhance sight lines. The project addresses identified accident black spots.
Green Point Foreshore Reserve Upgrades
Upgrade of the Green Point Foreshore Reserve on Brisbane Water, Central Coast, including three new sandy coves, grassed open space, an off-leash dog area, improved waterfront access, landscaping, and a nearby fenced playground. Works were delivered by Central Coast Council as part of its ongoing parks and playspace improvement program.
Wamberal Bus Interchange Upgrade
Modernization of Wamberal bus interchange with improved passenger facilities, real-time information displays, weather protection, and better accessibility features. The upgrade supports the expanded Central Coast bus network.
Wamberal Stormwater Management Upgrade
Comprehensive stormwater infrastructure upgrade for Wamberal including new drainage systems, water quality improvement devices, and flood mitigation measures. The project addresses increased rainfall intensity and urban development pressures.
Coastal Cycleway Extension - Wamberal Section
Extension of the Central Coast coastal cycleway through Wamberal, connecting to existing paths and providing safe cycling infrastructure from Terrigal to The Entrance. The project includes new bridge crossings and improved lighting for enhanced safety.
Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion
Multi stage campus expansion at Central Coast Grammar School's Erina Heights campus delivering a new K 6 junior school, senior college facilities, performing arts centre, upgraded sports fields and canteen under the school's facilities master plan.
3,424 residents of Kincumber - Picketts Valley are employed, from a labour force of 3,505. Unemployment sits at 2.3%, with participation at 55.5%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.9% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is characterized by strong skill levels, solid representation in essential services, an unemployment rate of only 2.3%, and an estimated job growth rate of 3.5% over the past year. In March 2026, 3,424 locals were employed, and the unemployment rate sat 1.8% below the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%, while workforce participation was notably lower (55.5% versus 69.1% in Greater Sydney). Census data indicates that 30.9% of residents worked from home, although this may reflect the influence of pandemic restrictions. The primary employment sectors for local workers are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.
The community is highly specialized in health care & social assistance, with its employment share reaching 1.4 times the regional proportion. On the other hand, professional & technical services are underrepresented, accounting for 6.1% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. This mostly residential community seems to provide few local employment options, as shown by comparing the count of working residents against those employed locally during the Census. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics, the latest 12-month period saw a 3.5% increase in employment alongside a 3.4% rise in the labor force, leaving the unemployment rate virtually unchanged. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 1.9%, labor force expansion of 1.9%, and a slight drop in unemployment. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of May-25 offer additional context on future demand in Kincumber - Picketts Valley. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with local workforce distributions to project growth paths. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the rates of change vary widely across industries. Applying these sector projections to the local workforce mix suggests Kincumber - Picketts Valley's employment could grow by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years (this represents a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not account for local population changes).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is $1,343 a week (about $70,000 a year), with median personal income at $691 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $46,660 a year against an average of $64,251. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
The Kincumber - Picketts Valley SA2 records a median taxpayer income of $46,660 and an average of $64,251, according to recent postcode-level ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. These statistics are below national benchmarks, contrasting with a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003 in Greater Sydney. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current projections estimate these figures at approximately $51,475 (median) and $70,882 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley sit between the 23rd and 26th percentiles nationally.
The largest income group contains 26.4% of residents (2,015 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, mirroring the wider region where 30.9% are in this category. Affordability pressures are high, with residents retaining only 79.3% of their income, placing the area at the 19th percentile, while the SEIFA index ranks the community in the 5th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Kincumber - Picketts Valley had 3,001 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 66% detached houses and 4% apartments. 40% are owned with a mortgage, 21% rented and 39% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,100 a month. Rent absorbs 29.8% of household income here and mortgage repayments 36.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, the housing mix in Kincumber - Picketts Valley consisted of 66.4% stand-alone houses and 33.6% other options (such as semi-detached homes, units, or alternative dwellings), compared to the Sydney metro profile of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Kincumber - Picketts Valley was much higher than the Sydney metro average, standing at 39.0%, while mortgaged homes accounted for 39.6% and rented properties made up 21.4%. The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,100 was significantly below the Sydney metro average of $2,427, and the median weekly rent of $400 was below the metro average of $470.
On a national scale, mortgage payments in Kincumber - Picketts Valley are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents exceed the national benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Kincumber - Picketts Valley counted 3,001 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.4 people each. 28% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 32% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 66.8%, consisting of 27.8% couples raising children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single-parent households. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 33.2%, with single-person households at 31.8% and group homes at 1.4%. The typical household size is 2.4 residents, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
21.3% of adults in Kincumber - Picketts Valley hold a university qualification, including 15.5% with a bachelor degree and 3.9% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.1% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 1,656 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,037 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational challenges exist within the area, as university qualification rates (21.3%) sit well below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This scenario highlights both a hurdle and a target for educational development. Bachelor degrees represent 15.5%, followed by postgraduate studies (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational training is highly prevalent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding trade qualifications, divided between advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (29.1%). The level of educational engagement is high, with 27.5% of the population enrolled in formal study programs. This group includes 9.3% in primary schooling, 7.9% in high school education, and 3.9% enrolled in tertiary courses.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Kincumber - Picketts Valley reaches 81 stops on 68 routes, timetabled for about 850 services a week. The typical home sits about 200 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Analysis of transit options indicates there are 81 active public transport stops in Kincumber - Picketts Valley, consisting of bus services. These stops support 68 distinct routes that generate 851 passenger trips weekly. Transport access is highly rated, with typical residents situated 197 meters from the nearest stop. Because of the residential profile, most workers travel out of the area, and cars remain the primary transit mode at 93%. Car ownership stands at 1.2 vehicles per home. Additionally, 30.9% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 rules.
The average frequency of services is 121 trips daily across all routes, which corresponds to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual transit stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
60.8% of residents in Kincumber - Picketts Valley report no long-term health condition. 8.7% need daily assistance with core activities, and 51.2% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.1 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Kincumber - Picketts Valley shows favorable health benchmarks based on AreaSearch analysis of mortality statistics and chronic disease trends, with general disease rates remaining low, though higher than the national baseline among older, vulnerable cohorts, and the level of private health insurance coverage is modest at around 51% of residents (~3,909 people). This is lower than the 59.9% coverage observed across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent health issues recorded among locals are arthritis (11.7%) and mental health conditions (8.7%), while 60.8% of the population reported no chronic medical conditions, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney.
Residents of working age exhibit higher-than-average rates of chronic illnesses. The area has 31.6% of its population aged 65 and over (2,409 people), exceeding the Greater Sydney proportion of 15.5%. Health profiles for older residents show some difficulties, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Kincumber - Picketts Valley is largely Australian-born, at 82.4% of residents, with 5.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (33.0%) and Australian (28.7%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is lower than average, with 82.4% of the population born locally in Australia, 91.2% holding citizenship, and 95.0% using only English in their households. Christianity is the predominant religious affiliation, representing 57.5% of residents. The most distinct divergence is in Judaism, which accounts for 0.3% of the community compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney. Regarding parental birthplaces, the largest ancestry groups in Kincumber - Picketts Valley are English at 33.0% (substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%), Australian at 28.7% (well above the regional average of 17.8%), and Irish at 9.5%.
There are also distinct representations of other backgrounds: Hungarian represents 0.4% (compared to 0.3% regionally), Welsh accounts for 0.7% (compared to 0.4%), and Scottish stands at 8.7% (compared to 4.8% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Kincumber - Picketts Valley is 47, older than 84% of areas nationally. 18.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is 47 years, which is much older than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and the national average of 38. The 75 - 84 age cohort is highly represented at 11.7% of the population, compared to a lower presence of the 25 - 34 bracket at 7.9%. The concentration of residents aged 75 - 84 is also higher than the national share of 6.1%. Data compiled since the 2021 Census shows the 85+ cohort grew from 6.8% to 8.1% of the total.
Conversely, the 25 to 34 age bracket declined from 9.3% to 7.9% and the 55 to 64 group fell from 11.7% to 10.5%. Demographic projections indicate the local age profile will transform by 2041. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow the fastest, expanding by 56% to add 345 residents and reach a total of 963. Older residents (65+) are projected to account for 100% of population growth, highlighting the aging trend. Meanwhile, population losses are anticipated in the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 cohorts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Kincumber - Picketts Valley
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2026 last month all 4 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 8 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (7,615 at the 2021 Census → 7,636 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (102011034). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.