Kincumber - Picketts Valley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kincumber - Picketts Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Kincumber - Picketts Valley's population is approximately 7,599, a decrease of 16 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2024 was 7,590, with an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 648 persons per square kilometer. Between the 2021 Census and November 2025, the SA3 area experienced a 2.3% growth while Kincumber - Picketts Valley saw a 0.2% decline, indicating divergent trends. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during this period. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a 2021 base year are applied. Growth rates by age group are used for all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area's population is projected to decrease by 272 persons according to these methodologies. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 379 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber-Picketts Valley has averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 38 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded. The population in the area has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $341,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

In FY26, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Sydney, where Kincumber-Picketts Valley has significantly less development activity, at 74.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. The area's new construction is entirely comprised of detached houses, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest, demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes. The estimated count of 1492 people per dwelling approval reflects the area's quiet, low activity development environment.

With stable or declining population forecasts, Kincumber-Picketts Valley may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to impact the region. Key projects are Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber (scheduled for completion in late 2023), Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development (commencing mid-2024), and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades (beginning late 2025).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber - Picketts Valley well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of June 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 2.2% over the past year. As of June 2025, there were 3,401 residents employed in Kincumber - Picketts Valley. Workforce participation was at 50.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance is particularly specialized, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.1% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, labour force increased by 2.7%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% during the same period. State-level data as of Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kincumber - Picketts Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, assuming no change in population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income for Kincumber - Picketts Valley SA2 was $43,267 and the average was $64,025 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is just below the national average, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $48,723 and the average $72,099 based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley fall between the 23rd and 26th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Distribution data shows that 26.4% of locals (2,006 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, a pattern also seen in the broader area where 30.9% occupy this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kincumber - Picketts Valley, as per the latest Census data, 66.4% of dwellings were houses while 33.6% consisted of other types such as semi-detached units and apartments. This differs from Sydney metro's dwelling composition where 74.2% were houses and 25.9% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber - Picketts Valley stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 39.6% and rented dwellings making up 21.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. Weekly rent figures were recorded at $400 in Kincumber - Picketts Valley, matching Sydney metro's average. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Kincumber - Picketts Valley exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 27.8% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, with 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber-Picketts Valley has 79 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of buses on 68 different routes, offering 815 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 197 meters.

On average, there are 116 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber - Picketts Valley faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of the total population (~3890 people), slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 54.7%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (11.7%) and mental health issues (8.7%). Conversely, 60.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.2% (2446 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber-Pickett's Valley, surveyed in 2016, had low cultural diversity with 82.4% born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 57.5%. Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.2%.

Top ancestry groups were English (33.0%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (9.5%). Hungarian (0.4%) and Welsh (0.7%) showed notable representation, while Scottish (8.7%) was slightly higher than the regional average of 7.9%.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber-Picketts Valley's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The population aged 75-84 makes up 12.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage, while those aged 25-34 constitute 8.1%. This 75-84 age group is higher than the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 11.3% to 12.6%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 9.3% to 8.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Kincumber-Picketts Valley's age profile. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 62%, adding 360 residents to reach 937. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, populations aged 45-54 and 65-74 are projected to decline.