Kincumber - Picketts Valley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kincumber - Picketts Valley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kincumber-Picketts Valley's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 7,599, a decrease of 16 people from the 2021 Census figure of 7,615. This decline, representing a 0.2% change, was inferred from ABS estimates and new address validations between June 2024 and the Census date. The population density is around 648 persons per square kilometer. Between the 2021 Census and June 2024, the SA3 area experienced a 2.3% growth while Kincumber-Picketts Valley showed a decline of 0.2%, indicating divergent trends. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during this period. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Future projections indicate an overall population decline by 272 persons to 2041, but growth is anticipated for specific age cohorts, notably the 85 and over group, projected to increase by 379 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Kincumber-Picketts Valley averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 38 homes. As of FY26, two approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $416,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

This financial year, $873,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kincumber-Picketts Valley has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. The area's development activity is also under the national average, indicating its established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. All new construction in the area has been detached houses, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

This trend favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (66.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes. The estimated population of 1492 people per dwelling approval reflects the quiet, low activity development environment in Kincumber-Picketts Valley. Given stable or declining population forecasts, the area may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Frost Reserve Upgrades, Avoca Drive Upgrade at Kincumber (scheduled for completion in 2023), Carrak Road Retail and Residential Development (commenced on 1st January 2022), and Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades (approved in April 2021).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Kincumber - Picketts Valley well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3%.

As of September 2025, 3,367 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 50.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specialises in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, but has lower representation in professional & technical services at 6.1% versus the regional average of 11.5%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data comparison. In the past year, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force by 2.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts suggest employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between sectors. Applying these projections to Kincumber - Picketts Valley's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Kincumber - Picketts Valley SA2 was $43,267 and the average was $64,025 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,723 (median) and $72,099 (average), based on a 12.61% growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, income levels in Kincumber - Picketts Valley fall between the 23rd and 26th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 26.4% of locals (2,006 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, reflecting a broader area trend where 30.9% occupy this income range. Housing affordability is severe with only 79.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Kincumber - Picketts Valley, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.4% houses and 33.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kincumber - Picketts Valley was higher at 39.0%, with the rest being mortgaged (39.6%) or rented (21.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below Sydney metro's average of $2,150. Median weekly rent in Kincumber - Picketts Valley was $400, matching Sydney metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, broken down into 27.8% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households making up 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, with 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kincumber - Picketts Valley has 79 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are 68 different routes serving these stops, together offering 815 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 197 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 116 trips per day across all routes, translating to around 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kincumber - Picketts Valley is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kincumber - Picketts Valley faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,890 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 54.7%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (11.7%) and mental health issues (8.7%). 60.8% report no medical ailments, versus 64.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 32.2% (2,446 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kincumber-Picketts Valley, as per the census conducted on the 27th of August 2016, showed lower than average cultural diversity with 82.4% of its residents born in Australia. This was accompanied by a high citizenship rate of 91.2%. The majority, 95.0%, spoke English exclusively at home.

Christianity dominated religious affiliation with 57.5% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 0.2%. In terms of ancestry, the most prevalent groups were English (33.0%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (9.5%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Hungarian residents comprised 0.4% versus 0.3% regionally, Welsh residents were at 0.7% matching the regional average, while Scottish residents were slightly overrepresented at 8.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 7.9%.

Kincumber - Picketts Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kincumber - Picketts Valley's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 12.6% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.1%. This 75-84 concentration is higher than the national figure of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 11.3% to 12.6%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 9.3% to 8.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Kincumber - Picketts Valley's age profile. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 62%, adding 360 residents to reach 937. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, indicating prominent demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, populations in the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups are projected to decline.