Erina

Population growth drivers in Erina are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Erina is around 5,062, reflecting a decrease of 143 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,205. This estimation was made by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of four new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 988 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth for the area, contributing approximately 65% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas across the nation, with Erina expected to grow by 651 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 12.9% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Erina is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Erina has seen approximately two dwelling approvals per year, with eleven approved between financial years 2021 and 2025 inclusive. No dwellings have been approved in the current financial year 2026 to date.

The population decline during this period has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with varied buyer choices. Commercial development approvals totalled $3.0 million in the current financial year, indicating minimal commercial focus compared to Greater Sydney's average, which is 89% higher per person. Erina's limited new supply supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although recent construction activity has increased. This activity remains below national averages, suggesting planning constraints and a mature market with around 1133 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Erina is projected to grow by 651 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases. New building activity favours higher-density living, with 67% townhouses or apartments compared to the current housing mix of 76% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability needs.

Looking ahead, Erina is expected to grow by 651 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Erina has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the region: Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, The Elly Extension, and M1 Pacific Motorway Kariong to Somersby Widening are key projects, with the latter being most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Erina ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Erina has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 2.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,215 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.0% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lags significantly at 51.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A high 32.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.1% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 3.4% alongside labour force increasing by 3.4%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Erina's employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Erina's employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Erina had a median income among taxpayers of $44,373 with an average level of $61,622. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since June 30, 2023, current estimates would be approximately $48,952 (median) and $67,981 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Erina all fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 33.6% of locals (1,700 people) with incomes ranging from $400 to $799, differing from the broader area where the $1,500 to $2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Economic circumstances reflect widespread financial pressure, with 41.6% of households operating within modest weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Erina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Erina's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.5% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina stood at 54.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.1% and rented ones at 21.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,146, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Erina was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Erina's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,146 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Erina features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 57.0% of all households, including 19.1% that are couples with children, 29.6% that are couples without children, and 7.5% that consist of single parents. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.0%, with lone person households at 41.6% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Erina exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 31.1%, with 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Erina has 48 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 94 different routes that together facilitate 2,535 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically living 205 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (89%). Walking accounts for 4% of journeys. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 32.5% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 362 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Erina faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of Erina's total population (~2,598 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.4%) and heart disease (7.8%). Conversely, 53.0% report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents exhibit a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. Erina has 45.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,303 people), significantly more than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, mirroring national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 10.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.6% born overseas. Christianity was the dominant religion in Erina, comprising 65.6%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.9%), Australian (25.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and South Australian (0.8%) groups were overrepresented in Erina compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Maltese representation was also notable at 0.7%.

Erina ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina's median age is 61 years, which is notably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and the national norm of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 75-84 are particularly prevalent, comprising 20.8% of the population, compared to the national average of 6.1%. This group has grown from 18.8% in 2021 to 20.8% currently. Meanwhile, the 35-44 age cohort increased from 8.7% to 10.1%, while the 85+ cohort declined from 13.9% to 12.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group decreased from 6.8% to 5.3%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Erina's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is expected to rise substantially by 476 people (78%), from 607 to 1,084. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 92% of the population growth, with anticipated declines in the 15-24 and 5-14 age cohorts.