Erina

Population growth drivers in Erina are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Erina's population is estimated at around 4,992 people, a decrease of 213 individuals (4.1%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,205 people. This estimate, based on AreaSearch validation of new addresses and ABS ERP data released in June 2024, reflects a resident population of 4,984. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. Population density stands at 975 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. For projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas.

Considering these projections, Erina is expected to grow by 715 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 16.4% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Erina is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Erina has received approximately two dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between financial years 2021 (FY-21) and 2025 (FY-25), around eleven homes were approved, with none recorded so far in FY-26.

Despite a decrease in population over this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with diverse buyer options. The average construction value for new properties is $697,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina has significantly less development activity, 89.0% below the regional average per person. This limited supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. However, there has been a recent intensification of construction activity in the area, which is still below national averages, reflecting its maturity and possible planning constraints.

New building activity comprises 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, with an increasing mix providing options across different price points. Erina shows a mature, established area with approximately 1697 people per approval. Looking ahead, Erina is projected to grow by 818 residents by the year 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Erina has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to impact this region: Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, and The Elly Extension are key projects. Details about those most relevant follow.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Erina ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Erina has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.1%. This is lower than Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%, with Erina's workforce participation at 36.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.1% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, while labour force increased by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Erina's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Erina had a median taxpayer income of $44,373 and an average income of $61,622. Both figures are below the national averages of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average) for Greater Sydney. Considering a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $49,968 (median) and $69,393 (average). The 2021 Census indicates Erina's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.6% of locals earn between $400 - $799 weekly, differing from broader area trends where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Financial pressure is evident with 41.6% of households having weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally. Erina's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Erina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Erina's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.5% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Erina's home ownership rate was 54.8%, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (24.1%) or rented (21.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Erina was $2,146, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure in Erina was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Erina's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,146 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Erina features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households are the majority, making up 57.0% of all households. They include couples with children at 19.1%, couples without children at 29.6%, and single parent families at 7.5%. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.0%, with lone person households being 41.6% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Erina exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 23.8%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (26.9%).

Educational participation is high at 31.1%, including 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.4% pursuing tertiary education. Erina's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,304 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1045) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 1 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. The area functions as an education hub with 46.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.9, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 47 active transport stops operating within Erina. These are mixed bus stops serviced by 94 routes, providing 2,433 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 347 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Erina faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of Erina's total population (~2,562 people), slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 54.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.4%) and heart disease (7.8%). Conversely, 53.0% of residents report being free from medical ailments compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. Erina has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 46.3% (2,311 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Erina was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina's population showed cultural diversity, with 10.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.6% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Erina, comprising 65.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 53.4%. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.9%), Australian (25.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8% vs regional 0.7%), South African (0.8% vs 0.5%), and Maltese (0.7% vs 0.7%) groups were similarly represented in Erina compared to the region.

Erina ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina's median age is 61 years, which is considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and the national norm of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 21.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 5.1%. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national average of 6.0%. Since 2021, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 18.8% to 21.2%, while those aged 35 to 44 increased from 8.7% to 10.1%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 85 and above has declined from 13.9% to 12.0%, and those aged 25 to 34 have decreased from 6.8% to 5.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Erina's age structure. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 493 people (82%) from 599 to 1,093. This demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 91% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 5-14 and 55-64.