Erina

Population growth drivers in Erina are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, Erina's population is estimated at around 5,124 people, reflecting a decrease of 81 individuals since the 2021 Census. This decline represents a 1.6% reduction from the previous population count of 5,205. The current resident population estimate of 5,090, validated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional four new addresses since the Census date, indicates a population density ratio of approximately 1,000 persons per square kilometer. This figure is relatively consistent with averages observed across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Erina has exhibited resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%. The suburb outpaced its SA3 area during this period, with population growth primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 65% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Erina is expected to experience above median population growth over the next two decades. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is anticipated to expand by 720 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 13.4% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Erina is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Erina saw around 2 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Approximately 11 homes were approved between FY-21 and FY-25, with none yet recorded in FY-26.

The area has experienced population decline, suggesting demand is being met by new supply. $3.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erina has significantly less development activity, 89.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though recent periods show increased development activity. The area's established nature is also indicated by its level being under the national average, suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% medium and high-density housing, a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 76.0% houses. With around 1132 people per dwelling approval, Erina reflects a highly mature market.

Population forecasts indicate Erina will gain 686 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Erina has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A total of one project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Notable projects include Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, and The Elly Extension. Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Erina ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Erina has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.5%. As of December 2025, 2,219 residents were employed and the unemployment rate was 2.0% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 51.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 32.5% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had notably high representation at 1.5 times the regional average, while professional & technical services showed lower representation at 6.1%.

Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 3.5% while labour force also grew by 3.5%, maintaining a stable unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2% with a marginal increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Erina's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Erina had a median taxpayer income of $44,373 and an average of $61,622. Nationally, the averages were $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest these figures would be approximately $48,304 (median) and $67,082 (average), based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census places Erina's household, family, and personal incomes between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. Income distribution in Erina is dominated by the $400 - $799 category, with 33.6% of locals (1,721 people), differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Economic pressures are evident, with 41.6% of households having weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability is severe, with only 80.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile. Erina's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Erina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Erina's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.5% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina stood at 54.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.1% and rented ones at 21.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,146, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Erina was recorded at $380, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Erina's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,146 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Erina features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.0% of all households, including 19.1% couples with children, 29.6% couples without children, and 7.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.0%, with lone person households at 41.6% and group households making up 1.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Erina exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.1% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 5.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Erina has 48 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 94 different routes that together facilitate 2,535 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average located 205 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 89%, while 4% of residents walk. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 32.5%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 362 trips per day, equating to roughly 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Erina faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% (~2,630 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Arthritis and heart disease are the most common medical conditions, impacting 13.4 and 7.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 53.0% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Erina has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 46.5% (2,382 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they align broadly with national rankings.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina's population showed higher-than-average linguistic diversity, with 10.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.6% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Erina, accounting for 65.6%, compared to 49.2% in Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.9%), Australian (25.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%), South Australian (0.8%), and Maltese (0.7%) ethnicities had higher representation in Erina compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 0.5%, and 1.0% respectively.

Erina ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina's median age is 61 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and national norm of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent at 21.6%, while the 25-34 group is smaller at 4.7% compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 18.8% to 21.6%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 8.7% to 10.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 6.8% to 4.7%, and the 85+ group dropped from 13.9% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Erina's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 479 people (79%), from 604 to 1,084. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 91% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 25-34 cohorts.