Erina

Population growth drivers in Erina are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Erina statistical area (Lv2) is around 5,124 people. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census total of 5,205 individuals, marking a drop of 81 people or approximately 1.6%. The latest resident population estimate of 5,090 by AreaSearch, based on examination of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and validation of four new addresses since the Census date, supports this decrease. This results in a population density ratio of around 1,000 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages observed across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver for population growth, contributing approximately 65% of overall gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is utilising ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts and aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is anticipated for statistical areas across the nation. Specifically, the Erina (SA2) is expected to grow by 706 persons to reach a total of 5,830 individuals by the year 2041, indicating an overall increase of approximately 13.2% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Erina is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Erina has experienced approximately two dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between financial years 2021 and 2025, around eleven homes were approved, with none recorded so far in the current financial year 2026.

Despite a decrease in population over this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. Commercial development approvals totalled $3.0 million in the current financial year, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to Greater Sydney, where Erina's development activity is 89.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although construction activity has intensified recently. Nationally, Erina's building activity is also below average, reflecting its mature market and possible planning constraints. New building approvals consist of approximately 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living to cater to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This change contrasts with the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses at 76.0%. With around 1131 people per dwelling approval, Erina reflects a highly mature market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Erina is expected to grow by approximately 677 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Erina has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects are Central Coast Grammar School Campus Expansion, Green Point Foreshore Masterplan & Reserve Upgrades, Green Point Shopping Village Expansion, and The Elly Extension.

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Employment conditions in Erina demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Erina has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 2.6%. As of September 2025, 2,200 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 36.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Employment specialization in health care & social assistance was high, with a share 1.5 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 6.1% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the past year, employment increased by 2.6% while labour force grew by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Erina's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Erina suburb had median taxpayer income of $44,373 and average income of $61,622. Both figures are below national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively in Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $48,304 and average income is $67,082 as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, Erina's household, family, and personal incomes fall between 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that majority, 33.6% or 1,721 people, earn within $400-$799 bracket, differing from broader area where $1,500-$2,999 category dominates at 30.9%. Economic conditions indicate financial strain with 41.6% of households having weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability is severe, with only 80.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at 4th percentile nationally. Erina's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Erina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Erina's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.5% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erina was at 54.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (24.1%) or rented (21.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Erina was $2,146, below Sydney metro's average of $2,150. Median weekly rent in Erina was recorded at $380, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Erina's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Erina features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.0% of all households, including 19.1% couples with children, 29.6% couples without children, and 7.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 43.0%, with lone person households at 41.6% and group households making up 1.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Erina exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (17.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 5.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 48 active transport stops in Erina, consisting of bus services. These stops are covered by 94 unique routes, collectively facilitating 2,535 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is assessed as good, with residents generally situated 205 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 362 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Erina is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Erina faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 51% of Erina's total population (~2630 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.4% of residents) and heart disease (7.8%). Conversely, 53.0% of Erina residents report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 64.8%. Erina has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 46.4% (~2377 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Health outcomes among seniors in Erina generally align with the overall population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Erina records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erina's population showed notable diversity, with 10.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.6% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Erina, accounting for 65.6%, compared to 53.4% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestral groups were English (32.9%), Australian (25.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Welsh at 0.8% in Erina versus 0.7% regionally, South African at 0.8% versus 0.5%, and Maltese at 0.7%.

Erina ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Erina's median age is 61 years, which is considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and the national norm of 38 years. The most prominent age group in Erina is those aged 75-84 years (21.3%), compared to a national figure of 6.0%. This group has grown from 18.8% of the population in 2021 to 21.3% currently, while the 35-44 age cohort increased from 8.7% to 10.1%. Conversely, the 85+ age cohort declined from 13.9% to 12.0%, and the 25-34 age group dropped from 6.8% to 5.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Erina's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 78% from 614 to 1,092 people. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 92% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 15-24 years and 5-14 years.