Box Head - MacMasters Beach
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Box Head - MacMasters Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

AreaSearch's analysis indicates that Box Head - MacMasters Beach's population is approximately 10,781 as of August 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 261 people, equivalent to a 2.4% drop from the 2021 Census total of 11,042 residents. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,236 in June 2024 and the addition of 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 336 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential room for further development. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 71.9% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 596 persons to 2041, representing a total increase of 9.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Box Head - MacMasters Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

MacMasters Beach, Box Head area, has seen approximately 27 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 139 homes were approved, with an additional four approved in FY-26 as of now. On average, over these years, only 0.9 new residents per year have been associated with each dwelling constructed.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $855,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In terms of commercial development, $922,000 in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal activity in this sector compared to residential. When compared to Greater Sydney, MacMasters Beach has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person.

Nationally, it places among the 36th percentile of areas assessed for buyer choices, suggesting more limited options and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This activity is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction in MacMasters Beach comprises 92% standalone homes and 8% medium to high-density housing, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 458 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate that Box Head - MacMasters Beach area will add approximately 1,028 residents by 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting this region. Notable initiatives include the Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, Gable Glass Room at Bream Road, Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Rd, and Beach Street Upgrade in Ettong. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3%.

As of June 2025, 5,405 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.8 percentage points lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation lagged behind Greater Sydney at 54.4%. Key employment sectors included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction stood out with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Finance & insurance employed only 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 7.3%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data comparison. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, and labour force grew by 2.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded similar trends with employment growth of 2.6% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Head - MacMasters Beach's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Box Head - MacMasters Beach had a median taxpayer income of $48,261 and an average income of $72,278. These figures are high nationally compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,347 (median) and $81,392 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly in Box Head - MacMasters Beach, between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 27.7% of residents (2,986 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to the regional pattern where 30.9% occupy this range. After housing costs, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Box Head - MacMasters Beach, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.9% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas, where 74.2% of dwellings are houses and 25.9% are other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Head - MacMasters Beach stood at 50.6%, higher than the Sydney metro average. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (12.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, surpassing the Sydney metro average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Sydney's $400. Nationally, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a university degree holding population of 28.4% among residents aged 15+, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 39.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (26.3%). Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, broken down into primary (9.6%), secondary (7.2%), and tertiary (3.7%) levels.

The area's three schools have a combined enrollment of 821 students as of the latest data. Box Head - MacMasters Beach demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1075. All three local schools focus on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited, with only 7.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.9, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Box Head - MacMasters Beach area shows that there are currently 115 active transport stops operating. These include a mix of ferry and bus services. There are 33 individual routes servicing these stops, providing a total of 733 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 229 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are around 104 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Box Head - MacMasters Beach is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

MacMasters Beach faces notable health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 55% (~5,961 people) of the total population have private health cover, a rate higher than Greater Sydney's average. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.4%) and asthma (7.4%). However, 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 64.8%. The area has a larger senior population at 31.5% (3,398 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong and perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Head-MacMasters Beach was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia and 92.3% being citizens. English is the language spoken at home by 95.2% of residents. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 54.3% of the population.

Judaism, however, is overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.6%), Australian (28.0%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, French (0.7%) Maltese (0.9%), and Scottish (8.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5%, 0.7%, and 7.9% respectively.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Box Head - MacMasters Beach is 49, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows a prominent group aged 65-74 (16.2%), compared to Greater Sydney and the national average of 9.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 5.6%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 8.7% to 12.1%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 12.3% and the 55-64 group has dropped from 15.4% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Box Head - MacMasters Beach's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 52%, reaching 1,980 people from 1,301. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth. In contrast, the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.