Box Head - MacMasters Beach
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Box Head - MacMasters Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's population is around 10,775 as of November 2025. This reflects a decrease of 267 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,042 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,230 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 335 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 71.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 596 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in an increase of 9.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Box Head - MacMasters Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

MacMasters Beach in Box Head has seen approximately 27 residential properties approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25139 homes were granted approval, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY-26. Over these five years, an average of 0.9 new residents per year was associated with each dwelling constructed.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties has been $625,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY-26, $922,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Head - MacMasters Beach has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally, offering limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing dwellings.

Recent construction comprises 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 458 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Future projections indicate Box Head - MacMasters Beach adding 1,034 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining reasonable alignment with projected growth, although buyers may face growing competition as population increases.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include the Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, Gable Glass Room on Bream Road, a Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Road, and Beach Street Upgrade in Ettong. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 1.4% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. There were 5,405 residents employed in June 2025, with a workforce participation rate of 54.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, finance & insurance employs only 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 7.3%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, labour force grew by 2.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded similar trends with employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Head - MacMasters Beach's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022 shows Box Head - MacMasters Beach had a median income among taxpayers of $48,261 and an average income of $72,278. These figures are higher than the national averages of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $54,347 and average income is around $81,392 as of September 2025. Census data indicates household incomes rank between the 45th and 52nd percentiles in Box Head - MacMasters Beach. The income bracket of $1,500 to $2,999 dominates with 27.7% of residents (2,984 people). After housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Box Head - MacMasters Beach, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.1% houses and 7.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Head - MacMasters Beach was 50.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (12.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.6% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has 28.4% of residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.2% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (26.3%). Educational participation is high, with 26.0% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (9.6%), secondary (7.2%), and tertiary (3.7%).

The area's three schools have a combined enrollment of 821 students. They focus on primary education; secondary options are available nearby. Local school capacity is limited, with 7.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.9, leading many families to travel for schooling. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1075).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Box Head - MacMasters Beach area shows that there are currently 115 active transport stops operating. These stops offer a mix of ferry and bus services, with a total of 33 individual routes serving the area. Collectively, these routes provide 733 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of public transport is rated as good, with residents typically located around 229 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are approximately 104 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Box Head - MacMasters Beach is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

MacMasters Beach faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 55%, covering around 5,958 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.4% and 7.4% of residents respectively. However, 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the 64.8% across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 31.5% aged 65 and over (3,396 people), compared to 24.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Head-MacMasters Beach was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Box Head-MacMasters Beach is Christianity, comprising 54.3% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.3% compared to 0.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (32.6%), Australian (28.0%), and Irish (10.0%). There are also notable divergences in the representation of French (0.7% vs regional 0.5%), Maltese (0.9% vs 0.7%), and Scottish (8.6% vs 7.9%) ethnic groups.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and also above the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 16.2% of the population, compared to 9.4% nationally. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 5.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.7% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 12.3%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 15.4% to 14.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Box Head - MacMasters Beach's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 52%, reaching 1,980 from 1,300. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.