Box Head - MacMasters Beach
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Box Head - MacMasters Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

AreaSearch's analysis indicates that Box Head - MacMasters Beach had a population of around 10,781 as of August 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 261 people, equivalent to 2.4%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 11,042. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,236 as of June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 336 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in the area, contributing approximately 71.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 596 persons to 2041, representing an increase of 9.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Box Head - MacMasters Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

MacMasters Beach in Box Head has seen approximately 27 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25139 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. The average new resident per year per dwelling constructed over these five years is 0.9.

New supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $855,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $922,000, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Head - MacMasters Beach has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 36th percentile nationally for buyer choices, supporting demand for existing dwellings due to limited options.

Recent construction comprises 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 458 people. Future projections indicate Box Head - MacMasters Beach will add 1,028 residents by 2041, with construction pace currently reasonable but buyers may face increasing competition as population grows.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified six projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable among these are the Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, the Gable Glass Room on Bream Road, the Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Road, and the Beach Street Upgrade in Ettong. The following list outlines those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 1.4% in June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. As of June 2025, 5,405 residents were employed with a participation rate of 54.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with notable concentration in construction at 1.6 times the regional average. Finance & insurance employs only 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 7.3%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, labour force by 2.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Head - MacMasters Beach's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0%% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch reports median taxpayer income at Box Head - MacMasters Beach was $48,261 in financial year 2022. Average income stood at $72,278 during this period. Nationally, these figures compare to $56,994 and $80,856 respectively across Greater Sydney. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $54,347, with average income around $81,392 based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes rank modestly in Box Head - MacMasters Beach, between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 27.7% of residents (2,986 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, reflecting regional patterns where 30.9% occupy this range. After housing costs, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Box Head - MacMasters Beach, dwelling structures as per the latest Census were 92.1% houses and 7.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Head - MacMasters Beach was 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.2% and rented ones at 12.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's $2,150. Median weekly rent in the area was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.6% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households making up 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a university degree holders' percentage of 28.4% among residents aged 15+, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 26.3%. Current educational participation is high at 26.0%, including primary education (9.6%), secondary education (7.2%), and tertiary education (3.7%).

The area's three schools have a combined enrollment of 821 students, with an ICSEA score of 1075 indicating above-average socio-educational conditions. All three schools focus on primary education only, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited at 7.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.9, resulting in many families traveling for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 115 active stops in Box Head - MacMasters Beach area, with a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are covered by 33 routes, offering 733 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents usually located 229 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 104 trips per day across all routes, equating to around six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Box Head - MacMasters Beach is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

MacMasters Beach faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 55% of the total population (~5961 people) has private health cover. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively. 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.8% across Greater Sydney. The area has 31.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3398 people), higher than the 24.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Head-MacMasters Beach, surveyed in June 2016, showed cultural diversity below average levels. 82.6% of residents were born in Australia, with 92.3% being citizens and 95.2% speaking English at home. Christianity dominated religiously, accounting for 54.3%.

Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.2%. Ancestry-wise, the top groups were English (32.6%), Australian (28.0%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, French (0.7% vs regional 0.5%), Maltese (0.9% vs 0.7%), and Scottish (8.6% vs 7.9%) groups were overrepresented.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Box Head - MacMasters Beach is 49, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and also above the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 16.2% of the population, compared to 9.4% nationally. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 5.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.7% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 12.3%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 15.4% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Box Head - MacMasters Beach's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 52%, reaching 1,980 people from 1,301 currently. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.