Box Head - MacMasters Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Box Head - MacMasters Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Box Head - MacMasters Beach's population was around 11,291 as of May 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 249 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,042. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 11,289 as of June 2025 and five new addresses validated after the Census date. This results in a population density of 352 persons per square kilometer. The area's 2.3% population growth since the census is close to the SA3 area's 2.6%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 78.9% of Box Head - MacMasters Beach's population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Box Head - MacMasters Beach is expected to grow by approximately 580 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of about 5.1% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Box Head - MacMasters Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

MacMasters Beach in Box Head has seen approximately 27 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25139 homes were granted approval, with an additional 15 approved so far in FY-26. On average, over these five years, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed have been recorded.

This indicates that the supply of new dwellings is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $625,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market by developers. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaling $922,000 have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity in the area compared to previous years. Compared to Greater Sydney, MacMasters Beach has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person.

Nationally, it places among the 36th percentile of areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This activity is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction in MacMasters Beach comprises 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 458 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections estimate MacMasters Beach will add 578 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Six projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Gable Glass Room at Bream Road, Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Rd, Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, and Jabiru Ettalong Beach. The following list details those likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Box Head - MacMasters Beach rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a well-educated workforce. Professional services show strong representation. The unemployment rate is 1.3%.

Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 3.6%. As of December 2025, 5,512 residents are in work. The unemployment rate is 2.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 58.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%.

A high 41.2% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction employment levels are notably high at 1.6 times the regional average. Finance & insurance employs just 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 7.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population with resident population. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, and labour force increased by 3.7%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Box Head - MacMasters Beach. These projections estimate local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on industry-specific growth rates applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Box Head - MacMasters Beach SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,143. The average income stood at $71,811. This is higher than the national average and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from financial year ending June 2023 to March 2026, current estimates would be approximately $57,524 for median income and $79,222 for average income as of March 2026. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Box Head - MacMasters Beach, between the 44th and 51st percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 27.7% of residents (3,127 people). This pattern is similar to the region where 30.9% occupy this income range. After housing costs, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Box Head - MacMasters Beach, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.1% houses and 7.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Head - MacMasters Beach was at 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.2% and rented ones at 12.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Box Head - MacMasters Beach trail region, 28.4% of residents aged 15 years or older hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement in the area. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 39.2% of residents aged 15 years or older holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.9% and certificates for 26.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 115 active public transport stops in Box Head - MacMasters Beach area. These include both ferry and bus services. There are 33 individual routes operating, collectively facilitating 747 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 229 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential region, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant transport mode at 92%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 41.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 106 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Box Head - MacMasters Beach. AreaSearch's assessment found low prevalence of common health conditions in both young and old age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover was approximately 55% of the total population (~6,198 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions were arthritis (10.4%) and asthma (7.4%). Sixty-five point two percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 33.4% of residents aged 65 and over (3,765 people), which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Head-MacMasters Beach, as per the census data of 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 82.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 54.3%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (28.0%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, French (0.7%) Maltese (0.9%), and Scottish (8.6%) ethnicities showed higher representation than the regional averages of 0.5%, 1.0%, and 4.8% respectively.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Box Head - MacMasters Beach's median age is 50 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.3%). This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 8.7% to 13.2%, while those aged 85 and over increased from 2.4% to 3.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 6.7% to 5.3%, and the proportion of those aged 55 to 64 has dropped from 15.4% to 14.0%. By 2041, Box Head - MacMasters Beach is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The demographic shift will be led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to grow by 38%, reaching 2,052 from 1,491 residents. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 94% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, both the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 age groups are projected to decrease in number.