Box Head - MacMasters Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Box Head - MacMasters Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's population is around 11,401 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 359 people (3.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,042 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,213 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 355 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Box Head - MacMasters Beach's 3.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.2%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 71.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 596 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 3.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Box Head - MacMasters Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has recorded around 27 residential properties granted approval per year, with 139 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 11 so far in FY-26. Given an average of only 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $625,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $922,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Box Head - MacMasters Beach has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally, which means more limited choices for buyers and supports demand for existing dwellings. This activity is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 458 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Box Head - MacMasters Beach adding 408 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 6 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Gable Glass Room - Bream Road, Dual Occupancy Development - 84 Broken Bay Rd, Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, and Jabiru Ettalong Beach, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Box Head - MacMasters Beach rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.3%, and 3.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,512 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.1% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 41.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. In contrast, finance & insurance employs just 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 7.3%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6% and the labour force increased by 3.7%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Box Head - MacMasters Beach. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Box Head - MacMasters Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Box Head - MacMasters Beach SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,143 with the average level standing at $71,811. This is higher than average nationally and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,763 (median) and $78,173 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Box Head - MacMasters Beach, between the 44th and 51st percentiles. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 27.7% of residents (3,158 people), reflecting patterns seen in the region where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Box Head - MacMasters Beach, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.1% houses and 7.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Box Head - MacMasters Beach was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 50.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (12.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.6% of all households, comprising 31.6% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Box Head - MacMasters Beach trail regional benchmarks, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (26.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 115 active transport stops operating within Box Head - MacMasters Beach, comprising a mix of ferries and buses. These stops are serviced by 33 individual routes, collectively providing 747 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 229 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 41.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 106 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Box Head - MacMasters Beach, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~6,259 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.4% and 7.4% of residents, respectively, while 65.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 32.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,747 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Head - MacMasters Beach was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Box Head - MacMasters Beach is Christianity, which makes up 54.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Box Head - MacMasters Beach are English, comprising 32.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 28.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 10.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: French is notably overrepresented at 0.7% of Box Head - MacMasters Beach (vs 0.5% regionally), Maltese at 0.9% (vs 1.0%) and Scottish at 8.6% (vs 4.8%).

Box Head - MacMasters Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

With a median age of 49, Box Head - MacMasters Beach is materially older than the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and also well above the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 65 - 74 year-olds are particularly prominent (16.6%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (5.4%) than in Greater Sydney. This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.7% to 12.8% of the population, while the 85+ cohort increased from 2.4% to 3.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 15.4% to 13.9% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 6.7% to 5.4%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Box Head - MacMasters Beach's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 131% (527 people), reaching 930 from 402. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 95% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65 to 74 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.