Box Head - MacMasters Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Box Head - MacMasters Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's population is around 10,775 as of November 2025. This reflects a decrease of 267 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,042 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,230 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 335 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 71.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 596 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 9.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Box Head - MacMasters Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has recorded approximately 27 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 139 homes were approved, with an additional 8 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years.

The supply of new dwellings is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is around $625,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been $922,000 in commercial approvals registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity in the area compared to Greater Sydney. Box Head - MacMasters Beach has approximately two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person when compared to Greater Sydney and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally for areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings.

Recent construction comprises 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population count of 458 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections estimate Box Head - MacMasters Beach to add around 1,034 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Six projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: Gable Glass Room at Bream Road, Dual Occupancy Development at 84 Broken Bay Rd, Ettalong Channel Dredging Project, and Jabiru Ettalong Beach.

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Employment conditions in Box Head - MacMasters Beach rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.4% in the year ending September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0%.

As of that date, 5,469 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 2.8%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 54.4%, lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with notable concentration in construction (1.6 times the regional average). Finance & insurance employs only 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 7.3%.

The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.0% and labour force by 3.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising 0.2 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Box Head - MacMasters Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Box Head - MacMasters Beach SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,261. The average income stood at $72,278. Nationally, these figures are high compared to the Greater Sydney levels of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% between financial years 2022 and 2025, current estimates for Box Head - MacMasters Beach are approximately $54,347 (median) and $81,392 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Box Head - MacMasters Beach rank modestly, between the 44th and 51st percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 27.7% of residents (2,984 people). This pattern is similar to the region where 30.9% of residents occupy this income range. After housing costs, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Box Head - MacMasters Beach, as evaluated at the Census dated 2016, comprised 92.1% houses and 7.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Head - MacMasters Beach stood at 50.6%, with the remainder being mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (12.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, above Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Box Head - MacMasters Beach's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.6% of all households, including 31.6% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households making up 1.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Box Head - MacMasters Beach trail region, 28.4% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent with 39.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (26.3%).

Educational participation is high at 26.0%, with 9.6% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that Box Head - MacMasters Beach has 115 active public transport stops. These include a mix of ferry and bus services. The area is served by 33 individual routes which together provide 733 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good with residents typically located 229 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 104 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Box Head - MacMasters Beach is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

MacMasters Beach faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 55%, covering about 5,958 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.4%) and asthma (7.4%). About 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.8% across Greater Sydney. Approximately 31.5%, or 3,396 people, are aged 65 and over, higher than the 24.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors perform strongly, even better than the general population in health metrics.

Box Head - MacMasters Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Head - MacMasters Beach had a cultural diversity below average, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia and 92.3% being citizens. English was the language spoken at home by 95.2%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 54.3% of the population.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 0.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (32.6%), Australian (28.0%), and Irish (10.0%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: French at 0.7% (regional average 0.5%), Maltese at 0.9% (regional average 0.7%), and Scottish at 8.6% (regional average 7.9%).

Box Head - MacMasters Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Box Head - MacMasters Beach has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and above the national average of 38. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-olds make up 16.2% of the population, compared to 9.4% nationally, while the 25-34 group constitutes only 5.6%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75-84 age group has grown from 8.7% to 12.1%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 12.3% and the 55-64 group has decreased from 15.4% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Box Head - MacMasters Beach's age structure. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 52%, reaching 1,980 people from the current 1,300. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth. Conversely, the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.