Umina Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Umina Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of Umina Beach is around 17,165, reflecting a decrease of 207 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population was estimated at 17,133 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, with an additional 71 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,455 persons per square kilometer, placing Umina Beach in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Umina Beach is expected to increase by 1,908 persons, reflecting an increase of 10.9% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Umina Beach recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Umina Beach has seen approximately 68 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 343 homes were approved, with an additional 34 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite a decrease in population during this period, development activity has been relatively adequate, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $467,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating emphasis on quality construction. This financial year, there have been $2.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. When compared to Greater Sydney, Umina Beach maintains similar construction rates per person, supporting market stability inline with regional patterns. New building activity comprises 48.0% detached houses and 52.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the area's existing housing composition of 77.0% houses, indicating decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles' need for diverse housing options.

The location has approximately 213 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts estimate Umina Beach will gain 1,876 residents by 2041 (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Umina Beach has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that could impact the area, with key ones including Umina Beach Public Preschool, Umina Beach Multi-Dwelling Housing Projects, 100-101 The Esplanade Development Site - Ettalong Beach, and Ettalong Beach Hotel Development - 216-220 Memorial Avenue. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Umina Beach has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Umina Beach has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.1% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 8,035 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate aligned with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

However, workforce participation was lower at 59.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census responses showed a high proportion of residents working from home, at 34.8%, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Umina Beach has a particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 7.6% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force also increased by 3.1%, leaving unemployment broadly flat, compared to Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.2% and labour force expansion of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Umina Beach. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Umina Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Umina Beach's median income among taxpayers is $47,819. The average income in the suburb is $72,031. Nationally, the median income is lower at $45,600, with an average of $71,000. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Umina Beach as of March 2026 would be approximately $52,754 (median) and $79,465 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Umina Beach rank modestly, between the 26th and 30th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 28.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with broader metropolitan trends at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Umina Beach, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 24th percentile nationally. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Umina Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Umina Beach's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.9% houses and 23.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Umina Beach stood at 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 34.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Umina Beach was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Umina Beach's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Umina Beach has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.5% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.5%, with lone person households at 29.4% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Umina Beach shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high at 28.2%, comprising primary education (10.2%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (3.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Umina Beach has 123 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 47 individual routes, offering a total of 1,528 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 162 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 82%, while 9% use the train. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 34.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Each route averages 218 trips per day, resulting in approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Umina Beach is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Umina Beach faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~9,509 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9 and 9.5% of residents respectively. However, 62.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.4% of residents aged 65 and over (4,188 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Umina Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Umina Beach had a cultural diversity rating below average, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia, 89.1% being citizens, and 93.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 52.4% of Umina Beach's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.8%), Australian (28.5%), and Irish (9.5%). Other ethnic groups with notable differences included Russian (0.5% vs regional 0.4%) and New Zealand (0.9% vs 0.5%), as well as Maori (0.7% vs 0.4%).

Umina Beach hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Umina Beach has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and is substantially higher than the national norm of 38. The age group of 75-84 years shows strong representation in Umina Beach at 9.2%, compared to Greater Sydney. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.7% to 9.2% of Umina Beach's population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.2% to 12.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Umina Beach's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 2,207 people from the current figure of 1,579. This growth will be led by an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 69% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.