Umina Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Umina Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Umina Beach's population is estimated at around 17,530 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 158 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,372. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population based on latest ABS ERP data release (June 2024) and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,507 persons per square kilometer, placing Umina Beach statistical area (Lv2) in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Umina Beach's 0.9% growth since census positions it within 2.2 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Umina Beach (SA2) is expected to expand by 2,012 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Umina Beach recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Umina Beach has seen around 70 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 352 homes. So far in FY-26 (ending June 2026), 24 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 new residents arrive per new home annually between FY-21 and FY-25.

New construction matches or outpaces demand, offering buyers more options while enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average dwelling value is $467,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating quality construction emphasis. This financial year has seen $2.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Umina Beach's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Umina Beach shows comparable construction activity per person, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. New development consists of 48.0% standalone homes and 52.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 77.0% houses).

This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Umina Beach has around 204 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low density area. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Umina Beach will grow by 1,963 residents. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Umina Beach has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Umina Beach Public Preschool, Umina Beach Multi-Dwelling Housing Projects, 100-101 The Esplanade Development Site - Ettalong Beach, and Ettalong Beach Hotel Development - 216-220 Memorial Avenue. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Umina Beach shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Umina Beach has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.4%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.6% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 8,138 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Umina Beach lags at 53.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in construction employment, with a share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 7.6% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 2.6%, while labour force grew by 3.3%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Umina Beach's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Umina Beach suburb shows median taxpayer income of $47,819 and average income of $72,031 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. These figures are higher than national averages of $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average). By September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $52,056 and average income is $78,413, accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. Income rankings in Umina Beach are modest: household incomes rank between 26th and 30th percentiles, family incomes at the 29th percentile, and personal incomes at the 28th percentile. The largest income segment comprises 5,066 residents earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (28.9%). This aligns with surrounding region trends where 30.9% fall into this category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Umina Beach, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 24th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Umina Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Umina Beach's dwellings, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 76.9% houses and 23.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Umina Beach stood at 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 34.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below Sydney metro's $2,150. Median weekly rent was $400, matching Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Umina Beach's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Umina Beach has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.5% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.5%, with lone person households at 29.4% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than Greater Sydney's average of 2.5.

Umina Beach shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high, with 28.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.2% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Umina Beach has 123 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 47 different routes that together facilitate 1,528 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 162 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 218 trips per day across all routes, which translates to roughly 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Umina Beach is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Umina Beach, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high, at approximately 55% of the total population of around 9,711 people. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 9.9% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%). In comparison, 62.7% of Umina Beach residents report no medical ailments, versus 64.8% in Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 25.1% of Umina Beach residents are aged 65 and over, totaling approximately 4,400 people. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Umina Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Umina Beach's cultural diversity was below average, with 82.6% born in Australia, 89.1% being citizens, and 93.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion at 52.4%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.2%.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.8%), Australian (28.5%), and Irish (9.5%). Russian, New Zealand, and Maori groups showed notable divergences: Russian at 0.5% vs regional 0.4%, New Zealand at 0.9% vs 0.7%, and Maori at 0.7% vs 0.4%.

Umina Beach hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Umina Beach has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.7% of Umina Beach's population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.7% to 9.7% of Umina Beach's population. Demographic modeling indicates that Umina Beach's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 2,383 people from the current 1,700. By 2041, those aged 65 and above are expected to account for 75% of Umina Beach's population growth. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups are projected to experience population declines.