Umina Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Umina Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

By November 2025, Umina Beach's population is estimated at around 17,508. This reflects an increase of 136 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,372. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 17,501 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 69 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,504 persons per square kilometer, placing Umina Beach in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 0.8% growth since census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, Umina Beach is expected to experience population growth just below the median of national areas, with an increase of 2,045 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 11.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Umina Beach recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Umina Beach has seen approximately 75 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 376 homes. As of FY-26, 21 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.3 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This pace matches or exceeds demand, offering buyers more options while enabling population growth that could surpass current expectations.

The average construction cost of new dwellings is $467,000, aligning with regional patterns. Umina Beach has seen $1.5 million in commercial approvals this financial year, reflecting its residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Umina Beach exhibits moderately higher construction activity, at 14.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New development in Umina Beach consists of 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from current housing patterns (77.0% houses).

This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 277 people per dwelling approval, Umina Beach exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Looking ahead, Umina Beach is projected to grow by 2,018 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Umina Beach has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Twelve projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Umina Beach Public Preschool, Umina Beach Multi-Dwelling Housing Projects, 100-101 The Esplanade Development Site - Ettalong Beach, and Ettalong Beach Hotel Development - 216-220 Memorial Avenue. Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Umina Beach shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Umina Beach has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.4%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 8,089 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Umina Beach lags behind Greater Sydney at 53.3%, compared to 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in construction employment, with a share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical employment has limited presence at 7.6% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and a higher labour force growth of 2.9%, with a smaller unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insights into potential future demand within Umina Beach. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Umina Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Umina Beach had a median taxpayer income of $47,819 and an average income of $72,031 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are high compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $53,849 (median) and $81,114 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Umina Beach rank modestly, between the 26th and 30th percentiles. The largest income segment consists of 5,059 residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, comprising 28.9% of the population, similar to surrounding regions at 30.9%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 24th percentile. Umina Beach's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Umina Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Umina Beach's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 76.9% houses and 23.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Umina Beach was 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented dwellings at 34.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below the Sydney metro average of $2,150. The median weekly rent was $400, matching Sydney metro's figure but exceeding the national average of $375. Nationally, Umina Beach's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Umina Beach has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.5% of all households, consisting of 25.7% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.5%, with lone person households at 29.4% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Umina Beach shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high at 28.2%, with 10.2% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Umina Beach Public School and Brisbane Water Secondary College Umina Campus serve 1,387 students collectively, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 992) and balanced educational opportunities. There is one primary and one secondary institution in the area, but limited local school capacity (7.9 places per 100 residents vs 15.9 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Umina Beach indicates that there are currently 123 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops cater to a mix of bus services, with 47 individual routes collectively facilitating 1,459 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 162 meters away from their nearest transport stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes stands at 208 trips per day, which equates to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Umina Beach is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Umina Beach, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high, with approximately 55% of the total population (~9,699 people) having it. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 9.9% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 9.5%). A majority, 62.7%, report being free from medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. Umina Beach has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.0% (4,377 people) than the national average. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Umina Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Umina Beach had a below average cultural diversity, with 82.6% born in Australia, 89.1% being citizens, and 93.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 52.4%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.2% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.8%), Australian (28.5%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Russian (0.5%) and New Zealand (0.9%) were overrepresented, while Maori was at 0.7%.

Umina Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Umina Beach's median age is 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly surpasses the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes 9.7% of Umina Beach's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.8%, which is less prevalent compared to Greater Sydney. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.7% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates Umina Beach's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 41%, adding 694 people to reach a total of 2,393 from the current 1,698. This growth reflects an aging population trend, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 74% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are expected to experience population declines.