Avalon - Palm Beach
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Avalon - Palm Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Avalon - Palm Beach's population was 13,052 as of the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it is estimated to be around 13,223, indicating a growth of 171 people (1.3%) since the census. This increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 13,188 in June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density as of November 2025 is approximately 1,535 persons per square kilometer. Avalon - Palm Beach's growth rate since the census (1.3%) is within 0.4 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate (1.7%), showing competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed about 97.5% of the overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth nationally, with Avalon - Palm Beach expected to expand by 76 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 0.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Avalon - Palm Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Avalon - Palm Beach averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 179 homes approved during this period. In FY26, up to 16 homes have been approved so far. On average, around 0.5 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes was $1,298,000 during this period, suggesting a focus on the premium market by developers. This financial year has seen $6.6 million in commercial development approvals recorded, reflecting the area's predominantly residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Avalon - Palm Beach shows comparable new home approvals per capita, maintaining market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. However, this activity is below the national average, potentially indicating an established area with possible planning constraints.

Recent construction has comprised 76.0% detached houses and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. The location has approximately 390 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature. Looking ahead, Avalon - Palm Beach is projected to grow by 41 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Avalon - Palm Beach has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects expected to influence the area: Snappermans, Palm Beach, Avalon Beach Bike Facility, 100 Hilltop Road House Construction, and Palm Beach Shop-Top Housing (Former General Store site). The following details those most relevant.

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The employment environment in Avalon - Palm Beach shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Avalon - Palm Beach has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

As of June 2025, 6,820 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's and similar workforce participation at 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and construction. Professional & technical jobs are particularly prevalent, with a share 1.3 times the regional level, while public administration & safety has lower representation at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 5.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population.

Over the year ending June 2025, labour force increased by 0.0%, while employment decreased by 0.3%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Avalon - Palm Beach's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Avalon - Palm Beach is exceptionally high nationally. The median income was assessed at $55,895 while the average income stood at $125,965. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $62,943 (median) and $141,849 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Avalon - Palm Beach, between the 83rd and 91st percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 31.7% of locals (4,191 people) fall into the $4000+ category, unlike trends in the region where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. A significant 43.9% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 15.1% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 91st percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Avalon - Palm Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Avalon-Palm Beach, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.0% houses and 16.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 72.1% houses and 27.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Avalon-Palm Beach stood at 49.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (35.3%) or rented (15.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,300, higher than Sydney metro's average of $3,200. The median weekly rent was $745, compared to Sydney metro's $695. Nationally, Avalon-Palm Beach's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly higher at $3,300, while the median weekly rent is substantially above the national figure of $375.

Avalon - Palm Beach features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 77.7% of all households, including 35.7% couples with children, 33.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up 22.3%, consisting of 20.8% lone person households and 1.6% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Avalon - Palm Beach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally. University qualification rates exceed the Australian average of 30.4% and that of NSW (32.2%), standing at 40.1% for residents aged 15+. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 27.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 14.0% and certificates make up 17.9%. Educational participation is high at 28.8%, including 10.1% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education. Avalon - Palm Beach's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,837 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages with an ICSEA score of 1100. Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Avalon-Palm Beach has 146 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 38 routes, collectively facilitating 3,756 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 138 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 536 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Avalon - Palm Beach's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Avalon - Palm Beach. Prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups was very low. Approximately 80% of the total population (10,604 people) had private health cover, compared to 74.1% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.6 and 6.4% of residents respectively. 72.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.8% across Greater Sydney. As of the latest data (15th March 20XX), 28.1% of residents were aged 65 and over (3,710 people), higher than the 24.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Avalon - Palm Beach records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Avalon-Palm Beach's cultural diversity is roughly comparable to the wider region's average, with 76.1% of its population born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 93.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Avalon-Palm Beach, accounting for 43.4% of the population. However, Judaism is disproportionately represented, comprising 0.5% compared to the regional average of 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (34.9%), Australian (23.2%), and Irish (10.4%). Notably, French (1.0%) and Scottish (9.7%) ancestry is overrepresented in Avalon-Palm Beach compared to the regional averages of 0.8% and 8.7%, respectively. Welsh ancestry is also slightly overrepresented at 0.8%.

Avalon - Palm Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Avalon-Palm Beach's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that residents aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 14.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 4.8%, which is smaller than in Greater Sydney. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 7.9% to 10.6%, and those aged 15 to 24 increased from 11.3% to 12.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 6.2% to 4.8%, while the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 13.1% to 12.0%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Avalon-Palm Beach, with the 85+ cohort projected to grow by 182%, adding 771 residents to reach a total of 1,196. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 25-34 age group and those under 5 years old.