Narrabeen

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narrabeen reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Narrabeen statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 8,459 as of November 2025. This represents a growth of 204 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,255. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,245 in June 2024 and an additional 91 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,845 persons per square kilometer, placing Narrabeen (SA2) within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 2.5% since the Census is within 0.7 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 3.2%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where no ABS data is available, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections indicate that the Narrabeen (SA2) population is expected to increase by 599 persons to reach 8,743 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 4.4% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Narrabeen is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Narrabeen experienced around 16 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 82 homes. So far in FY2025-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline while maintaining adequate development activity relative to its population size, which may be beneficial for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $717,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $2.0 million in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narrabeen records about 67% of the building activity per person and places among the 16th percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. This reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% townhouses or apartments, demonstrating a trend toward denser development to provide accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. However, new construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (16.0% at Census), indicating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures.

The location has approximately 1026 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established market. Looking ahead, Narrabeen is expected to grow by 373 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narrabeen has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified eight projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones are Cromer Village Green (Proposed Mixed-Use Precinct), The Narrabeen Village, Narrabeen Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Narrabeen Lakeside Estate. Below is a list of projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Narrabeen recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Narrabeen has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. Its unemployment rate is 5.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 4,219 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation in Narrabeen stands at 55.5%, lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance. Notably, construction employs 15.7% of local workers, which is 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing accounts for just 2.8%, below Greater Sydney's 5.3%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.7% in Narrabeen while employment fell by 3.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%, with unemployment rising by only 0.2 percentage points. State-level data for NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years in Narrabeen, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narrabeen suburb has a median taxpayer income of $60,211 and an average income of $93,560 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. These figures are among the highest in Australia, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,063. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,546 (median) and $101,849 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, individual earnings rank at the 81st percentile nationally ($1,025 weekly), while household income ranks lower at the 51st percentile. In terms of income distribution, the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 28.7% of residents (2,427 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narrabeen features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Narrabeen's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 15.9% houses and 84.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narrabeen was 32.2%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.1% and rented ones at 42.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, below Sydney metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent in Narrabeen was $565, compared to Sydney metro's $592. Nationally, Narrabeen's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,600 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narrabeen features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.3% of all households, including 19.4% couples with children, 28.9% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.7%, with lone person households at 38.5% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Narrabeen shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Narrabeen, 34.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the SA4 regional benchmark of 41.5%. This indicates potential for educational development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 24.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 14.0% and certificates at 22.5%.

A significant 21.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 5.9% in primary education, 5.3% in secondary education, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 47 active transport stops in Narrabeen, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 64 different routes that together facilitate 6,542 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 119 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 934 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 139 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narrabeen is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Narrabeen faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is notably high at approximately 64% (5398 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 71.5%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common conditions, affecting 9.6% and 8.3% of residents respectively. 64.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.0% (2622 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 17.8%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Narrabeen was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narrabeen, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from 2016, had a cultural diversity index above average with 11.2% of its population speaking languages other than English at home and 25.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Narrabeen, accounting for 55.6% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 0.4% versus 0.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English at 31.2%, Australian at 23.8%, and Irish at 9.6%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences in representation: French was slightly overrepresented at 1.0% compared to the regional figure of 1.1%, Welsh remained relatively consistent at 0.7%, and Spanish also showed a similar proportion at 0.6%.

Narrabeen hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Narrabeen's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 85 years and above are particularly prominent at 8.6%, while the 5-14 age group is smaller at 6.5% compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of those aged 85 years and above is well above the national average of 2.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 55-64 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.5% of the population, while the 45-54 age group has declined from 11.6% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Narrabeen. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 78%, adding 567 residents to reach a total of 1,295. Senior residents aged 65 years and above will drive 97% of population growth, highlighting aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 25-34 age cohorts.