Narrabeen

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narrabeen reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Narrabeen is around 8,441, reflecting an increase of 186 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population was estimated at 8,245 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024. This increase is attributed to 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. Based on this level of population, Narrabeen has a density ratio of 3,836 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 2.3% growth since the census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.3%). Population growth for Narrabeen was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, Narrabeen is expected to increase by 592 persons to reach a total population of approximately 8,976 by the year 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 4.7% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Narrabeen is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Narrabeen experienced around 17 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling approximately 85 homes. As of July 2021, four approvals have been recorded in FY-26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $786,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment.

Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $2.0 million, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narrabeen records around 69% of building activity per person and ranks among the 16th percentile nationally, implying limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. New development consists of 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% townhouses or apartments, demonstrating a trend towards denser development to cater to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The location has approximately 966 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Narrabeen is expected to grow by 396 residents through to 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narrabeen has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Eight projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Cromer Village Green's proposed mixed-use precinct, The Narrabeen Village, Narrabeen Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Narrabeen Lakeside Estate.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Narrabeen recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Narrabeen has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation and an unemployment rate of 5.1%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation as of December 2025. There are 4,238 residents employed, with the unemployment rate at 0.9% above Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 60.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%.

Census responses indicate that 44.8% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include construction, professional & technical, and health care & social assistance. Construction has a high share of employment at 1.5 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing employs only 2.8%, below Greater Sydney's 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as seen in the Census working population vs resident population count.

Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.3% and employment fell by 2.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.9 percentage points, contrasting with Greater Sydney's growth in employment and labour force, and marginal unemployment increase. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Narrabeen's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Narrabeen has a median taxpayer income of $60,211 and an average income of $93,560 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is among the highest in Australia, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,546 (median) and $101,849 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, individual earnings rank at the 81st percentile nationally ($1,025 weekly), though household income ranks lower at the 51st percentile. In terms of income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.7% of residents (2,422 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narrabeen features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narrabeen's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 15.9% houses and 84.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narrabeen was 32.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.1% and rented ones at 42.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Narrabeen was $2,600, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Narrabeen was $565, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Narrabeen's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narrabeen features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.3% of all households, consisting of 19.4% couples with children, 28.9% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.7%, with lone person households at 38.5% and group households making up 3.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Narrabeen shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Narrabeen's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks; 34.3% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees compared to the SA4 region's 41.5%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (22.5%).

A significant 21.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 5.9% in primary, 5.3% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narrabeen has 46 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 64 individual routes, collectively facilitating 6,542 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 119 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes in this residential area are outward-bound. Car remains the dominant mode at 84%, while bus accounts for 8%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 44.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 934 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 142 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narrabeen's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Narrabeen's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical of the general population, but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 64% of the total population (5,387 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.6 and 8.3% of residents respectively. 64.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 32.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,726 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Narrabeen was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narrabeen's cultural diversity was above average, with 11.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 25.7% born overseas as of 2016 Census data. Christianity dominated Narrabeen's religious landscape, comprising 55.6%. However, Judaism stood out at 0.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

In ancestry, English (31.2%) and Australian (23.8%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 19.0% and 17.8% respectively. Irish ancestry was also notable at 9.6%. French (1.0%), Welsh (0.7%), and Spanish (0.6%) ethnicities showed significant representation compared to regional figures of 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.6% respectively.

Narrabeen hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Narrabeen's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that residents aged 85 and above are particularly prominent, making up 8.9% of the population, compared to 2.2% nationally. Meanwhile, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 is smaller at 6.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of residents aged 75-84 has increased from 10.3% to 11.7%, while those aged 55-64 have risen from 11.5% to 12.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has decreased from 11.6% to 10.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Narrabeen. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 71%, adding 536 residents to reach a total of 1,288. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 96% of the population growth, reflecting ongoing demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for those aged 15-24 and 5-14.