Bayview - Elanora Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bayview - Elanora Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to data from AreaSearch, the population of Bayview - Elanora Heights is estimated at 11,426 in May 2026. This represents an increase of 183 individuals (1.6%) relative to the 2021 Census, which counted 11,243 residents. This adjustment is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 11,426 alongside 38 validated new addresses recorded after the Census date. With these figures, the density stands at 176 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density and capacity for prospective expansion. The area's post-census growth rate of 1.6% is within 0.9 percentage points of the broader SA3 region (2.5%), showing competitive local dynamics. Net gains in population were heavily influenced by overseas migration, which made up approximately 98.1% of all additions during the latest timeframes.

Projections for each SA2 unit are sourced from ABS/Geoscience Australia data published in 2024 using 2022 as the base point. For locations not detailed in that release, projections from the NSW State Government published in 2022 using 2021 as the baseline are used instead. Age-specific growth trajectories from these sources are projected forward to the years 2032 through 2041. Overall demographic forecasts point to a contraction, with the local population projected to decrease by 23 residents by 2041 under this approach. Conversely, expansion is anticipated within particular age brackets, notably the demographic aged 85 and over, which is set to rise by 615 individuals.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bayview - Elanora Heights, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Approvals for new dwellings in Bayview - Elanora Heights have averaged about 25 annually, cumulative to 129 homes over the previous 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 15 approvals have been documented. Since construction over the previous 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) yielded a low ratio of 0.6 new residents per year for each built dwelling, supply is keeping pace with or running ahead of demand, expanding options for buyers and allowing for population increases that might outpace current projections. The average cost of new builds is $604,000, indicating that developers are prioritizing high-end projects for the premium sector. Additionally, commercial approvals reached $3.8 million this financial year, reinforcing the highly residential focus of the neighborhood.

In comparison to Greater Sydney, construction volume per capita in Bayview - Elanora Heights is approximately 75% of the metropolitan level, placing the area in the 20th percentile of all analyzed locations across the country, which limits choice for buyers and sustains interest in established dwellings. This level also falls below the national benchmark, reflecting the mature state of the local market and hinting at potential planning constraints. Recently approved construction is dominated by detached homes at 88.0%, with townhouses or apartments comprising the remaining 12.0%, preserving the traditional low-density landscape and highlighting family-oriented residences. The low-development setting is highlighted by a ratio of 1062 people in the area per dwelling approval.

Given that the population is projected to remain steady or contract, pressure on the housing supply should ease, potentially opening up opportunities for prospective buyers.

Bayview - Elanora Heights has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects and planning changes are key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 38 projects that are expected to influence the local area. Principal developments include the Warriewood Valley Release Area, Dove Lane Residences, Pittwater Plaza Redevelopment, and Arri Estate, with the primary projects detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Bayview - Elanora Heights shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

The local workforce in Bayview - Elanora Heights is highly educated, with substantial representation in the technology industry, a low unemployment rate of 3.9%, and steady jobs data over the past year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 5,739, with the unemployment rate sitting 0.3% below the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%, while workforce participation is considerably lower at 61.8% compared to the metropolitan average of 69.1%. Census data indicates a high proportion of residents working from home at 49.1%, though this figure was likely affected by Covid-19 restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are professional & technical services, construction, and health care & social assistance. Local specialization is particularly pronounced in the construction sector, where the employment share is 1.5 times the regional benchmark. In contrast, the transport, postal & warehousing sector is underrepresented, accounting for 2.5% of local workers compared to the regional average of 5.3%. A comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests that local employment opportunities within the area itself are limited.

An analysis of SALM and ABS statistics shows that for the 12 months ending March 2026, employment grew by 0.3% while the labor force expanded by 1.4%, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points. This differs from Greater Sydney, where employment increased by 1.9%, the labor force grew by 1.9%, and unemployment declined slightly. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 provide a broader outlook on future workforce demand in Bayview - Elanora Heights. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local industry mix to estimate future trends. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary widely by industry. Applying these national projections directly to the industry profile of Bayview - Elanora Heights indicates that local employment would grow by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming a basic weighted calculation for illustrative purposes that excludes local population forecasts.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to the latest postcode ATO data released for financial year 2023, the median taxpayer income in the Bayview - Elanora Heights SA2 is $61,511, with an average of $105,882. This positions the area in the top national percentile, compared to a median of $60,817 and an average of $83,003 in Greater Sydney. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, updated estimates as of March 2026 indicate a median income of approximately $67,859 and an average of $116,809. Based on the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes all rank high, falling within the 79th to 91st percentiles nationally. The largest income bracket consists of the 32.4% of taxpayers (3,702 residents) who earn over $4000 weekly, which contrasts with the broader region where the $1,500 - 2,999 range is the most common at 30.9%. Affluence is high with 45.0% of earners receiving more than $3,000 weekly, which underpins demand for premium retail and local services. Although high housing expenses absorb 15.2% of income, strong earnings keep disposable income in the 91st percentile, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 9th decile for income.

Bayview - Elanora Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling mix in Bayview - Elanora Heights at the time of the latest Census consisted of 82.0% separate houses and 18.0% other dwelling types like semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative structures, compared to the Sydney metropolitan breakdown of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bayview - Elanora Heights is high at 50.7%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (11.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $3,467, which is higher than the Sydney metropolitan median of $2,427. The median weekly rent was $745, compared to the metropolitan median of $470. On a national level, housing costs in Bayview - Elanora Heights are higher than the Australian averages of $1,863 for mortgages and $375 for rent.

Bayview - Elanora Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households make up 76.8% of the local total, consisting of couples with children at 39.3%, couples without children at 30.1%, and single-parent households at 6.7%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 23.2%, which is composed of single-person households at 21.7% and group households at 1.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, matching the average for Greater Sydney.

Bayview - Elanora Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The local educational profile is strong compared to the broader region, with tertiary qualification rates at 37.4% of residents aged 15 and over, which is higher than the Australian average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 26.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 8.2% and graduate diplomas at 3.1%. Vocational and technical training is also common, with 32.4% of residents aged 15 and over holding these qualifications, split between advanced diplomas at 13.9% and certificates at 18.5%.

Enrolment in education is high, with 29.2% of the population currently studying. This group is composed of 9.8% in primary schools, 9.0% in secondary schools, and 5.0% in tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in Bayview - Elanora Heights consist of 136 active stops, offering a combination of ferry and bus options. These stops are served by 62 separate routes, providing 2,109 passenger trips weekly. Transport access is rated as good, with an average distance of 238 meters to the nearest stop. The neighborhood is mostly residential, and 87% of commuters travel by car. Vehicle ownership is high, averaging 1.7 cars per household, which is above the regional average. A high proportion of residents worked from home at 49.1% according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related working arrangements.

Service frequency averages 301 daily trips across all routes, which is about 15 weekly trips per stop. The map details the 100 closest stops to the center of the area.

Bayview - Elanora Heights's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health indicators in Bayview - Elanora Heights are strong, based on mortality rates and the prevalence of chronic illnesses, with low rates of common medical conditions across all age categories. Private health insurance coverage is high at approximately 73% of the population (8,352 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.0% and 6.2% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 70.8% of the population reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over make up 28.2% of the local population (3,225 people), which is higher than the 15.5% average in Greater Sydney. Health indicators for this older age group are strong, with national rankings aligning with those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Bayview - Elanora Heights records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity indicators are above average, with 9.1% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 26.1% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion, practiced by 53.5% of residents. The most notable religious overrepresentation is in Judaism, which accounts for 0.3% of the population compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

Regarding ancestry, the top three backgrounds are English at 32.4% of the population (above the regional average of 19.0%), Australian at 24.5% (above the regional average of 17.8%), and Irish at 8.8%. There are also differences in other groups, with French ancestry at 0.9% (compared to 0.5% regionally), South Australian at 0.9% (compared to 0.5% regionally), and Serbian at 0.6% (compared to 0.5% regionally).

Bayview - Elanora Heights hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age of 49 in Bayview - Elanora Heights is higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and the national average of 38. The 75 - 84 age cohort is large at 10.8%, while the 25 - 34 cohort is small at 5.6% compared to Greater Sydney. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket has risen from 11.6% to 13.8%, and the 85+ cohort has increased from 3.8% to 5.3%. The 35 to 44 cohort has decreased from 9.9% to 8.3%. Projections to 2041 indicate shifts in the local age structure, with the 85+ group expected to grow by 92% (552 people), increasing from 601 to 1,154. The combined 65+ cohorts are projected to account for 100% of population growth, while the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to contract.