North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)

An assessment of population growth drivers in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population was 10,874 as of May 2021. By May 2026, this had increased to around 11,272, reflecting a growth of 398 people (3.7%) since the 2021 Census. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,191 in June 2025 and an additional 62 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 2,167 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s growth of 3.7% exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.5%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 91.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area's population is projected to decline by 340 persons overall, but specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 age group are expected to increase, with a projection of 394 additional people in this cohort.

Residential development activity is lower than average in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has seen approximately 25 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. In the current financial year FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident arrives per new home built in the area over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of these new homes is $643,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments.

Additionally, $889,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person, placing it among the 42nd percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% attached dwellings, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. The location has approximately 433 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area with population projections showing stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers in the future.

With population projections showing stability or decline, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Warriewood Valley Release Area, Warriewood Community Centre, Warriewood Square Redevelopment, and Dove Lane Residences. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a highly educated workforce with prominent professional services representation, and an unemployment rate of 3.6% as of December 2025. The area's employment rate is 0.6% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, with workforce participation at 72.9%. According to Census responses, 44.5% of residents work from home.

Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction stands out with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Finance & insurance is under-represented at 4.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 7.3%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.3% alongside a 1.4% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) SA2 is $63,919, with an average of $92,701, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By March 2026, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $70,515 and an average of $102,268, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) ranked between the 84th and 94th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 30.1% of locals (3,392 people), earning over $4,000 weekly, differing from the regional norm where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is most prevalent at 30.9%. Notably, 46.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 93rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.0% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) was at 35.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (45.2%) or rented (19.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,093, above Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $710, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

North Narrabeen-Warriewood has 33.8% of residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to the SA4 region's 41.5%. The most common degree type is bachelor's at 23.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.6% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are held by 36.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 14.0% and certificates at 22.5%. Educational participation is high, with 31.5% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.2% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) has 97 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 78 different routes that collectively facilitate 5263 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 137 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 87% of residents, while walking accounts for 4%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling in the area, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 44.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The average service frequency across all routes is 751 trips per day, equating to roughly 54 weekly trips per stop.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) residents had relatively positive health outcomes, as per AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions. The prevalence of common health conditions was quite low across both younger and older age cohorts, aligning broadly with national benchmarks. Approximately 67% of the total population (7,529 people) had private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.8 and 6.2% of residents respectively. 75.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area had 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,864 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

In terms of cultural diversity, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South), surveyed from July 2016 to June 2021, had 11.5% of its population speaking a language other than English at home. This was above the regional average. Born overseas, 23.7% of the population resided there, compared to 28.9% regionally.

Christianity dominated with 51.7%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 49.2%. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.2%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, Croatian was overrepresented at 1.1% compared to the regional average of 0.7%. South Australian and Serbian also had higher representations than regionally recorded averages.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is slightly older than the national pattern

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The area has a notably over-represented cohort of 45-54 year-olds at 15.3%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.8% to 15.5%, and the 75-84 cohort has grown from 4.6% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 9.7% to 8.1%, and the 35-44 age group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 362 people, from 679 to 1,042, a 53% increase. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for all of the area's population growth, reflecting its aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.