North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)

An assessment of population growth drivers in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population was approximately 11,218 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 344 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,874. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,056 in June 2024 and an additional 61 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 2,157 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 3.2% population growth since the 2021 Census exceeded the SA3 area's 2.0%, positioning it as a growth leader regionally. Overseas migration contributed approximately 74.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilised, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline overall by 300 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group, projected to increase by 447 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has seen approximately 25 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. On average, each new home attracts around 1 new resident per year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of these homes is $643,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $889,000 in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 42nd percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options across various price brackets. The area has approximately 433 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established population with stable or declining projections, reducing housing demand pressures and benefiting potential buyers.

With population projections showing stability or decline, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely to affect this region. Notable initiatives include Warriewood Valley Release Area, Warriewood Community Centre, Warriewood Square Redevelopment, and Dove Lane Residences. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 3.5%. There are 6,340 residents employed, which is 0.7% below Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation stands at 74.0%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 44.5% of residents work from home. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction employment is particularly strong, with a share 1.5 times the regional level.

However, finance & insurance is under-represented at 4.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 7.3%. The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.7% while employment declined by 1.9%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $63,919 and an average of $92,701 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% would be approximately $69,582 (median) and $100,914 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 94th percentiles. The income distribution shows that 30.1% of locals (3,376 people) earn over $40,000 annually, differing from the regional norm where the $15,000 - $29,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Notably, 46.0% earn above $3,000 weekly, indicating prosperity that fuels local economic activity. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 93rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) had 72.0% houses and 28.0% other dwellings in its latest Census evaluation, compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area was at 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.2% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,093, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $710, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s median monthly mortgage repayment was significantly higher at $3,093 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.2% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.8%, consisting of 16.2% lone person households and 1.7% group households. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), 33.8% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university degrees, compared to the SA4 region's 41.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.6% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are held by 36.5% of residents aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas at 14.0% and certificates at 22.5%. Educational participation is high, with 31.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.2% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) has 97 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 78 different routes that together facilitate 5,263 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 137 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 87% of residents, while walking accounts for 4%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 44.5% of residents work from home, which could be partly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 751 trips per day, translating to about 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) residents show positive health outcomes, according to AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions. The prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age cohorts, aligning with national benchmarks. Private health cover is exceptionally high, at approximately 67% of the total population (7,493 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.8 and 6.2% of residents respectively, while 75.8% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The area has 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,876 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) had a cultural diversity index of 11.5%, with 23.7% of its population born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 51.7%. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.2%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, Croatian (1.1%) South African (1.0%), and Serbian (0.6%) populations were higher than the regional averages of 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is slightly older than the national pattern

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age group is notably over-represented locally at 15.6%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 7.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.8% to 15.5% of the population, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 4.6% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 9.7% to 7.6%, and the 35-44 group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 368 people, increasing from 695 to 1,064, a growth of 53%. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 55-64 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.