North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)

An assessment of population growth drivers in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is around 11,218 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 344 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,874 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,056 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 61 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,157 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s 3.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.0%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 74.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to shrink by 300 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to increase by 447 people. See the age section for more details.

Residential development activity is lower than average in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has seen around 25 new homes approved per year, totalling 126 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 7 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 1 new resident per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new homes are being built at an average value of $643,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $889,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 42nd percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing dwellings. This activity is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% attached dwellings, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. The location has approximately 433 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

With population projections showing stability or decline, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 22 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Warriewood Valley Release Area, Warriewood Community Centre, Warriewood Square Redevelopment, and Dove Lane Residences, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of only 3.6%. As of December 2025, 6,354 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.6% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (74.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 44.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. On the other hand, finance & insurance is under-represented, with only 4.9% of North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s workforce compared to 7.3% in Greater Sydney. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.3% alongside a 1.4% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.2%, the labour force grew by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South). These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $63,919 and an average of $92,701 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is extremely high nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $69,582 (median) and $100,914 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), between the 84th and 94th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 30.1% of locals (3,376 people) in the $4000+ category, diverging from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. A significant 46.0% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 93rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 72.0% houses and 28.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 35.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (45.2%) or rented (19.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $3,093, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $710, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 82.2% of all households, comprising 45.6% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.9 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) trail regional benchmarks, with 33.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 41.5% in the SA4 region. This gap highlights the potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 23.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (22.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 97 active transport stops operating within North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 78 individual routes, collectively providing 5,263 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 137 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 87%, with 4% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 44.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 751 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with the prevalence of common health conditions remaining low across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 67% of the total population (7,493 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.8% and 6.2% of residents, respectively, while 75.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,876 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 11.5% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 23.7% born overseas. The main religion in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is Christianity, which makes up 51.7% of people in the area. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) are English, comprising 30.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 25.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 8.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Croatian is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) (vs 0.7% regionally), South Australian at 1.0% (vs 0.5%) and Serbian at 0.6% (vs 0.5%).

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is somewhat higher than the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, the 45 - 54 cohort is notably over-represented (15.6% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (7.6%). In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.8% to 15.5% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 4.6% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.7% to 7.6% and the 35 to 44 group dropped from 13.9% to 12.2%. Demographic modeling suggests North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 368 people (53%) from 695 to 1,064. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.