North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is approximately 11,142 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 268 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,874. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,056 in June 2024 and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,142 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 2.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's rate of 1.7%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 74.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline by 300 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group, projected to increase by 447 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has seen approximately 25 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. As of FY-26, three approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident per year arrives with each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice and potential for population growth above projections. The average construction value of these homes is $643,000, suggesting developers target the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $889,000 in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney and nationally, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows lower construction activity per capita, placing it among the 43rd percentile of areas assessed, which may limit buyer choices and support demand for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 68% standalone homes and 32% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options across various price brackets. The area has approximately 433 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature.

Population projections indicate stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers in the future.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Warriewood Community Centre, Warriewood Square Redevelopment, Dove Lane Residences, and Vantage Warriewood. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 2.9%.

As of June 2025, 6454 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 69.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, finance & insurance is under-represented at 4.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 7.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.0% while employment declined by 0.8%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) had a median taxpayer income of $60,724 and an average of $92,923 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is notably higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $68,381 (median) and $104,641 (average). In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) ranked highly nationally, between the 85th and 95th percentiles. The income distribution showed that 30.1% of locals (3,353 people) earned over $4,000 weekly, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominated at 30.9%. A significant 46.0% earned above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consumed 16.7% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 94th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 9th decile.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), as per the latest Census evaluation, 72.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 28.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is comparable to Sydney's metropolitan area, which had 72.1% houses and 27.9% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) was 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.2% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,093, lower than Sydney's average of $3,200. The median weekly rent figure stood at $710, slightly higher than Sydney's $695. Nationally, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) has educational qualifications that fall below South Australian region four benchmarks. 33.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the regional average of 41.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 23.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.6% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications.

This includes advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (22.5%). Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (11.2%), secondary education (9.5%), and tertiary education (4.2%). The area's three schools have a combined enrollment of 2,619 students. Socio-educational conditions are above average, with an Index for Community and School Education Advantage (ICSEA) score of 1067. Educational provision is conventional, with one primary and two secondary institutions. North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) functions as an education hub, offering 23.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 12.7. This attracts students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has 73 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of buses operating along 78 different routes. Together, these routes facilitate 5023 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 138 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency across all routes averages 717 trips per day, equating to approximately 68 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) demonstrates excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. Approximately 68% of its total population of 7,598 people have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.1%. Nationally, this rate is 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.8%) and mental health issues (6.2%), with 75.8% of residents reporting no medical ailments. This compares to 72.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has 16.3% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling 1,811 people, which is lower than Greater Sydney's 24.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong, mirroring the general population's profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) has a cultural diversity above average, with 11.5% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 23.7% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South), comprising 51.7%, compared to 50.4% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English at 30.2%, Australian at 25.7%, and Irish at 8.6%.

Notably, South African is overrepresented at 1.0%, Croatian at 1.1%, and Serbian at 0.6%.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is slightly older than the national pattern

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 45-54 cohort is notably over-represented at 16.0%, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 7.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.8% to 15.1%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 4.6% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.7% to 7.9%, and the 35 to 44 group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s age profile. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 60%, from 664 to 1,064 people. Notably, all population growth will come from the 65+ age groups. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.