North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)

An assessment of population growth drivers in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is approximately 11,142 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 268 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,874. The growth can be inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,056 in June 2024 and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,142 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 2.5% between the 2021 Census and November 2025 exceeds the SA3 area's growth rate of 1.7%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 74.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline by 300 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 age group are projected to increase, with an anticipated growth of 447 people in this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has seen approximately 25 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 5 approvals recorded so far. On average, one new resident arrives per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of new homes is $643,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $889,000 in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows around 75% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 42nd percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options across various price brackets. The area has approximately 433 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature.

Population projections indicate stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers in the future.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Warriewood Valley Release Area, Warriewood Community Centre, Warriewood Square Redevelopment, and Dove Lane Residences. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a well-educated workforce with professional services strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 3.5%.

As of September 2025, 6,340 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is higher at 69.1% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Finance & insurance, however, is under-represented at 4.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 7.3%.

The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. From September 2024 to September 2025, labour force decreased by 0.7% alongside a 1.9% employment decline, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1%, labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes without considering localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $60,724 and an average income of $92,923 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. These figures are notably high compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $68,381 (median) and $104,641 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since the financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 94th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 30.1% of locals (3,353 people), earning over $4000 weekly, which differs from the regional norm where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. A significant 46.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 93rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.0% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 72.1% houses and 27.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) was at 35.3%, with the rest either mortgaged (45.2%) or rented (19.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,093, below Sydney metro's average of $3,200. The median weekly rent was $710, compared to Sydney metro's $695. Nationally, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.2% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) trail regional benchmarks. As of the latest data, 33.8% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 41.5% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 23.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.6% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 14.0% and certificates at 22.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has 73 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 78 different routes that together facilitate 5,023 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average living just 138 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, these routes collectively run 717 trips, which translates to approximately 68 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows excellent health outcomes with a low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. The area has a high private health cover rate at approximately 68% (7,598 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 74.1%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 6.8 and 6.2% of residents respectively. 75.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.3% (1,811 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.1%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) had cultural diversity above average, with 11.5% speaking a language other than English at home and 23.7% born overseas. Christianity was the main religion, at 51.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 50.4%. Top ancestry groups were English (30.2%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, Croatian (1.1% vs regional 0.8%), South African (1.0% vs 0.8%), and Serbian (0.6% vs 0.5%) were overrepresented.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is slightly older than the national pattern

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented at 16.0% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. From 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.8% to 15.1%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 4.6% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 9.7% to 7.9%, and the 35-44 age group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s age profile will evolve significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 60%, expanding from 664 to 1,064 people. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.