North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is around 11,122 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 10,874 people, marking a growth of 248 individuals or approximately 2.3%. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 11,056 in June 2024 and an additional 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,138 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 2.3% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 1.7%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 74.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections were utilized, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline by 300 persons by 2041, with specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 group projected to increase by 447 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) has seen approximately 25 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes from FY-20 to FY-25. As of FY-26, two approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident per year arrives with each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value for these homes is $700,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction.

In FY-26, $889,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney and nationally, North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 43rd percentile of areas assessed. This indicates more limited choices for buyers and supports demand for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% attached dwellings, offering a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets.

The area has approximately 433 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature. With population projections showing stability or decline, North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) is expected to experience reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Warriewood Community Centre, Warriewood Square Redevelopment, Dove Lane Residences, and Vantage Warriewood. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 2.9%.

There were 6,454 residents in work at this time, which is 1.3% below Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 69.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction shows particularly strong specialization, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

Finance & insurance is under-represented, with only 4.9% of North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 7.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to June 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.0%, alongside a 0.8% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.6%, the labour force grew by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) had a median taxpayer income of $60,724 and an average of $92,923 in financial year 2022. Nationally, these figures are extremely high, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $68,381 (median) and $104,641 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) rank highly nationally, between the 85th and 95th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 30.1% of locals (3,347 people) with earnings above $40,000 weekly, differing from the regional norm where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Notably, 46.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 94th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As per the latest Census evaluation, in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South), 72.0% of dwellings were houses while 28.0% were other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is similar to Sydney metropolitan area's dwelling composition of 72.1% houses and 27.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) was at 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.2% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,093, lower than Sydney metro's average of $3,200. The median weekly rent figure was $710, slightly higher than Sydney metro's $695. Nationally, North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,093 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $710 against the national figure of $375.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.2% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has lower university degree holders compared to the SA4 region, with 33.8% of residents aged 15+ having degrees versus 41.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.6% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.5% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (22.5%). Educational participation is high, with 31.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.2% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

The area has three schools with a combined enrollment of 2,619 students. It demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1067) and functions as an education hub with 23.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 12.7. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and two secondary institutions.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that there are 73 active public transport stops operating in the North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 78 individual routes providing service. This results in approximately 5,023 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 138 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 717 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around 68 weekly trips per individual stop.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South). The prevalence of common health conditions is very low across all age groups. Private health cover rate is exceptionally high at approximately 68% of the total population of 7,585 people, compared to 74.1% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.8%) and mental health issues (6.2%). A majority of residents, 75.8%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the 72.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.3% (1,808 people) compared to 24.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North Narrabeen-Warriewood (South) had a higher than average cultural diversity, with 11.5% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 23.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in North Narrabeam-Warriewood (South), comprising 51.7% of people, compared to 50.4% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestral groups were English at 30.2%, Australian at 25.7%, and Irish at 8.6%.

Notably, South African ancestry was overrepresented at 1.0%, Croatian at 1.1%, and Serbian at 0.6%, compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.5% respectively.

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s population is slightly older than the national pattern

North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South) has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented at 16.0%, while the 25-34 age cohort is under-represented at 7.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.8% to 15.1%, and the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.6% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age cohort has declined from 9.7% to 7.9%, and the 35 to 44 age group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in North Narrabeen - Warriewood (South)'s age profile. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 401 people (61%), from 662 to 1,064. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.