Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)'s population is around 15,003 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 369 people (2.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,634 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,944 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 147 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,322 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)'s 2.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.0%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to increase by 932 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 5.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has seen around 69 new homes approved each year, totalling 345 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 14 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 0.7 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $436,000—somewhat higher than regional norms—reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, $6.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Relative to Greater Sydney, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) records 59.0% more new home approvals (per person), creating greater choice for buyers, though construction activity has eased recently. New building activity shows 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 53.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 1009 people per dwelling approval, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) reflects a highly mature market.

Looking ahead, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is expected to grow by 873 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 25 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Warriewood Valley Release Area, Pittwater Plaza Redevelopment, Dove Lane Residences, and Arri Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of just 2.9%. As of December 2025, 8,091 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (66.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 43.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Meanwhile, transport, postal & warehousing has a limited presence with 3.0% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.3% combined with employment decreasing by 0.8%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Mona Vale - Warriewood (North). These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)'s employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) SA2 is extremely high nationally, with the median assessed at $62,415 while the average income stands at $95,080. This contrasts to Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $67,945 (median) and $103,504 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North), between the 79th and 82nd percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 27.5% of residents (4,125 people), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 30.9% in the same category. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 38.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 80th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Mona Vale - Warriewood (North), as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 53.4% houses and 46.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 44.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.7%) or rented (21.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $3,033, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $660, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)'s mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.3% of all households, comprising 35.8% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) trail regional benchmarks, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 41.5% in the SA4 region. This gap highlights the potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 24.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.1%) and certificates (21.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 121 active transport stops operating within Mona Vale - Warriewood (North), comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 92 individual routes, collectively providing 6,210 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 175 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 85%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 43.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 887 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

The level of general health in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show a low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (10,307 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.4% and 6.5% of residents, respectively, while 71.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 25.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,777 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 11.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 25.7% born overseas. The main religion in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is Christianity, which makes up 55.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) are English, comprising 31.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 24.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 8.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Croatian is notably overrepresented at 1.5% of Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) (vs 0.7% regionally), Serbian at 1.1% (vs 0.5%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The 45-year median age in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is significantly above Greater Sydney's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Sydney, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has a higher concentration of 75 - 84 residents (9.8%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (7.8%). Following the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.1% to 14.0% of the population. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 11.6% to 10.0% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 13.0% to 11.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)'s age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 102% (646 people), reaching 1,283 from 636. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age groups will see reduced numbers.