Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is approximately 15,251 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 617 individuals (4.2%) compared to the 14,634 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. This adjustment is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 15,134 along with 278 validated new addresses registered since the Census. With a density of 2,360 persons per square kilometer, the locality ranks in the upper quartile of all analyzed national territories. The 4.2% expansion rate of Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) since the 2021 census outperformed both the SA3 area (2.5%) and the SA4 region, positioning it as a local growth frontrunner. The main driver of this population growth was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 90.5% of the total population gains in recent times.

Projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, are used by AreaSearch for each SA2 area. For regions where this dataset is unavailable, projections at the SA2 level from the NSW State Government, issued in 2022 with a 2021 base year, are substituted. Growth trajectories across different age cohorts from these models are also applied to all territories for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these demographic forecasts, population growth is projected to remain slightly below the median of Australian statistical areas, with a projected gain of 846 individuals by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP figures, representing a total increase of 4.8% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Approximately 69 new residential properties receive approval each year in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North), translating to a total of 345 dwellings over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 23 approvals have been logged. With an average of 1.2 additional residents per year per built dwelling over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, demand and supply appear balanced, leading to stable market trends. However, recent data points to an acceleration to 10.6 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years, indicating rising demand alongside contracting supply. The average construction cost of development projects stands at $436,000, which is marginally above the regional average and points to a focus on higher-quality builds. Additionally, commercial approvals worth $6.0 million have been registered this financial year, showing a minor emphasis on commercial projects.

Compared to Greater Sydney, new home approvals per capita in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) are 59.0% higher, offering more options for purchasers despite a recent slowdown in construction activity. Newly approved buildings consist of 26.0% detached houses and 74.0% medium and high-density housing options. The preference for higher density provides more budget-friendly entry points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a major shift from the established housing stock, which currently consists of 53.0% houses, reflecting a scarcity of development sites as well as evolving lifestyle choices and budget constraints. A ratio of approximately 1020 people for each approved dwelling indicates that Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is a highly mature market.

Looking forward, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is projected to add 729 inhabitants by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations by AreaSearch. In light of prevailing building patterns, the supply of new dwellings is expected to satisfy demand easily, supporting favorable conditions for purchasers and potentially allowing population growth to exceed current forecasts.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and urban planning decisions are key factors influencing local performance. AreaSearch has tracked 25 projects expected to influence the locality. Significant initiatives include the Warriewood Valley Release Area, the Pittwater Plaza Redevelopment, the Dove Lane Residences, and Arri Estate, with the list below highlighting the most relevant ones.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) shows above-average strength when compared nationally

The workforce in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is highly educated, featuring a strong concentration of professional service workers, an unemployment rate of only 2.9%, and an estimated job growth of 0.8% over the past year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 8,148, with the unemployment rate sitting 1.2% lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%. Workforce participation is slightly below average, registering at 65.8% compared to 69.1% in Greater Sydney. Census records indicate that a high proportion of residents, 43.3%, worked from home, though this figure may be influenced by Covid-19 restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. The locality displays a specific concentration in construction, with its employment share reaching 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing is underrepresented, employing just 3.0% of the local workforce compared to 5.3% in Greater Sydney. A ratio of 0.7 jobs for every resident at the time of the Census indicates a higher-than-average availability of local work opportunities.

AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics shows that for the 12 months ending March 2026, employment grew by 0.8% while the labor force expanded by 1.4%, resulting in a 0.6 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Greater Sydney recorded job growth of 1.9% and labor force growth of 1.9%, accompanied by a minor decline. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of May-25 provide additional context regarding future demand trends in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North). These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local employment mix to project growth paths. Nationwide employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary significantly by sector. Projecting these industry-specific trends onto the employment profile of Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) indicates that local employment will grow by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, representing a basic weighted extrapolation for illustrative purposes that excludes local population forecasts.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Postcode-level ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicates that the Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) SA2 has a median taxpayer income of $62,415 and an average of $95,080. This represents a very high position nationally, compared to a median of $60,817 and an average of $83,003 in Greater Sydney. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 stand at approximately $68,856 for the median and $104,892 for the average. Census statistics show household, family, and personal incomes all rank in the upper tier nationally, falling between the 79th and 82nd percentiles. The largest income bracket contains 27.5% of earners (4,194 residents) receiving $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, which is similar to the broader region where this segment accounts for 30.9%. Affluence is prominent, with 38.3% of the population earning more than $3,000 weekly, which helps sustain high-end retail and services. High housing costs account for 16.8% of income, yet strong earnings keep disposable income in the 80th percentile, and the local SEIFA income score falls into the 9th decile.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the latest Census, the residential mix in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) consisted of 53.4% houses and 46.6% other properties like semi-detached homes and apartments, compared to 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings in metropolitan Sydney. Home ownership rates in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) were much higher than in metropolitan Sydney at 44.3%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (34.7%) or rented (21.0%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $3,033 was well above the metropolitan Sydney average of $2,427, and the median weekly rent was $660 compared to the metropolitan average of $470. On a national level, mortgage payments in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also well above the national median of $375.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 74.3%, which includes 35.8% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.7%, with single person households representing 23.8% and group households making up 1.9%. The median household size of 2.6 residents is slightly below the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Attainment of higher education in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is lower than regional averages, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 41.5% in the SA4 region. This difference points to opportunities for future educational growth and training. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 24.0%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 7.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications in these areas, consisting of advanced diplomas (14.1%) and certificates (21.8%).

Enrolment in education is quite strong, with 30.7% of the population participating in formal study. This cohort includes 10.5% in primary schools, 9.2% in secondary schools, and 4.6% in higher education institutions.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport reveals 121 active stops operating within Mona Vale - Warriewood (North), which are serviced by buses. These stops accommodate 92 separate routes, providing 6,210 passenger journeys each week. Transport access is highly rated, with residents living an average of 175 meters from the nearest stop. Because the area is mostly residential, most workers commute out of the suburb, with private vehicles being the primary mode of travel for 85% of commuters, while 7% walk. Average car ownership is 1.5 vehicles per household, which is above the regional average. A high share of residents (43.3%) worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may be linked to pandemic conditions.

Across all bus routes, service frequency averages 887 journeys per day, which equates to roughly 51 weekly trips per individual stop. The linked map details the 100 closest stops to the center of the locality.

The level of general health in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the prevalence of chronic illnesses, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) exhibits strong health outcomes, with both young and old cohorts showing a low rate of common health issues. Private health insurance coverage is exceptionally high, encompassing approximately 69% of the population (10,477 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the locality, affecting 8.4% and 6.5% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 71.0% of the population reported no chronic medical issues, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and older make up 24.8% of the population (3,779 people), which exceeds the Greater Sydney average of 15.5%. Seniors in the area experience above-average health outcomes, with national rankings aligning with those of the broader community.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

In terms of cultural diversity, Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) ranks above the average, with 11.4% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 25.7% born outside Australia. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 55.5% of the population. The most distinct relative overrepresentation is found in Judaism, which makes up 0.3% of local residents, compared to 0.8% in Greater Sydney.

Regarding parental country of birth, the three most common ancestries in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) are English at 31.6% (much higher than the regional average of 19.0%), Australian at 24.9% (significantly above the regional average of 17.8%), and Irish at 8.8%. There are also distinct concentrations of other ethnic backgrounds, with Croatian representing 1.5% of the population (compared to 0.7% regionally), Serbian at 1.1% (compared to 0.5%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (compared to 0.3%).

Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age of 45 in Mona Vale - Warriewood (North) is much higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, the area has a higher share of residents aged 75 - 84 (9.6%) but a lower share of those aged 25 - 34 (8.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket has expanded from 11.1% to 14.0% of the population. In contrast, the 5 to 14 cohort decreased from 13.0% to 11.3%, and the 35 to 44 cohort declined from 11.6% to 10.2%. Projections for 2041 indicate notable changes in the age structure of Mona Vale - Warriewood (North). The cohort aged 85+ is expected to double, growing by 100% (641 people) to reach 1,284 from an initial 642. The combined 65+ age brackets are projected to make up 95% of the total population growth, highlighting the aging trend. Conversely, both the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to experience a reduction in numbers.