Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest

An assessment of population growth drivers in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest stands at approximately 3,593 in May 2026. Compared to the 2021 Census count of 3,786 people, this represents a reduction of 193 people (5.1%). This shifting trajectory is calculated from the ABS estimated resident population of 3,593 recorded in June 2025 alongside 7 validated new addresses registered after the Census. Consequently, the local density ratio is 50 persons per square kilometer, indicating a spacious environment for residents. Overseas migration was the primary driver of these population changes, acting as the sole source of positive demographic gains in the recent past.

Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, have been adopted by AreaSearch for each SA2. In instances where these data are unavailable, AreaSearch uses SA2 projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 using 2021 as the base year. The age cohort growth rates from these datasets are applied to all locations for the period 2032 to 2041. Based on these demographic patterns, future expansion is projected to align with the lower quartile of Australian statistical territories, with the area forecast to add 10 residents by 2041 relative to the latest annual ERP numbers, indicating an overall rise of 0.3% across the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest recorded 28 residential approvals, averaging roughly 5 new dwellings annually, with 2 approvals registered in FY-26 so far. Because of the recent population decline, the incoming housing stock has likely matched local demand, maintaining options for prospective purchasers. The average expected construction cost for these new structures is $1,133,000, which indicates that builders are focusing on premium, upscale housing. Furthermore, commercial approvals totaling $12.3 million this financial year point to steady commercial expansion.

In comparison to Greater Sydney, building volume per capita in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest is approximately half, placing the area in the 18th percentile nationally. This leads to limited purchasing options for buyers, which supports demand for established homes. The lower rate of activity relative to national figures suggests a mature market and potential planning barriers. Additionally, recent construction consists solely of detached houses, preserving the established low-density layout and prioritizing family-oriented homes for residents wanting larger properties. An estimated 901 people per dwelling approval highlights the quiet pace of local development.

Based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch, future forecasts suggest Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest will gain 10 residents by 2041. At the current pace of construction, the volume of incoming housing is expected to easily accommodate this demand, ensuring favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating growth beyond these projections.

Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, planning initiatives, and major developments have a significant impact on local performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects expected to influence the area. Key works include the Mona Vale Road West Upgrade (McCarrs Creek Road to Powder Works Road), Connecting Northern Beaches - Cycling & Walking Paths, the St Ives Showground Main Carpark Upgrade, and the Belrose North Residential Release, with the following list detailing the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

The workforce in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest is highly educated, featuring a strong concentration of professionals, a low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and an estimated job growth rate of 1.0% over the prior year. In March 2026, there were 1,883 employed residents, with an unemployment rate 0.4% below the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%. Workforce participation is slightly low at 64.1% compared to 69.1% across Greater Sydney. Census responses indicated that a substantial 46.6% of residents worked from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical fields. The area exhibits a high concentration in construction, with its employment share reaching 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, public administration & safety has a small footprint, accounting for 3.3% of jobs compared to 5.7% regionally. A ratio of 0.7 workers per resident at the time of the Census indicates a higher than average availability of local jobs.

According to AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics, employment rose by 1.0% and the labor force expanded by 1.5% during the 12 months ending March 2026, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 1.9% and labor force growth of 1.9%, with a slight decline in unemployment. Additional guidance on future demand in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest is available via national employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia issued in May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been combined with the local employment structure to project growth trends. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary considerably by sector. Projecting these industry trends onto the job profile of Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest suggests local jobs should rise by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, utilizing a basic weighted calculation for demonstration purposes that excludes local population forecasts.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Aggregated ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 ranks the Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest SA2 in the top percentile nationally for income. Taxpayers in the area recorded a median income of $65,810 and an average income of $133,599, compared to median and average figures of $60,817 and $83,003 in Greater Sydney. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 are approximately $72,602 for the median and $147,386 for the average. Census data places local weekly household incomes in the 96th percentile at $2,899. The largest income group comprises 35.2% of residents (1,264 people) earning more than $4000 weekly, which contrasts with Greater Sydney where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is largest at 30.9%. High-income earners are prominent, with 48.4% receiving over $3,000 weekly, indicating substantial financial capacity. Residents keep 87.2% of their income after accounting for housing costs, and the area is positioned in the 9th decile on the SEIFA income index.

Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the latest Census, the housing mix in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest consisted of 88.0% houses and 12.1% other options like semi-detached dwellings and apartments, compared to 55.9% houses and 44.1% other options in the Sydney metro area. Home ownership rates were high at 47.0%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (15.8%). The median mortgage payment in the area was $3,200 monthly, and the median rent was $610 weekly, compared to Sydney metro averages of $2,427 and $470. On a national scale, mortgage costs in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rent prices are above the national benchmark of $375.

Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 83.2%, consisting of couples with children at 45.2%, couples without children at 30.6%, and single parent households at 6.8%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 16.8%, with single person households representing 15.2% and group households making up 1.9%. The median household size is 3.0 people, exceeding the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The proportion of residents with tertiary qualifications in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest is lower than regional figures, with 33.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree compared to 41.5% in the SA4 region, suggesting opportunities for further academic and professional training. Bachelor degrees are held by 23.3% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.3% and graduate diplomas at 3.2%. Technical and vocational credentials are common, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications such as advanced diplomas (12.9%) or certificates (22.0%).

A high proportion of the population is engaged in education, with 28.6% of residents enrolled in study. This group includes 10.0% in primary schools, 8.9% in secondary schools, and 4.4% enrolled in tertiary programs.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport options in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest include 66 stops serviced by buses. There are 74 distinct routes operating across these stops, generating 2,089 passenger journeys weekly. Accessibility is rated as good, with residents living an average of 374 meters from a transit point. Given the residential nature of the area, most workers commute out of the district, with cars being the primary mode of travel at 91% and walking at 5%. Households average 2.1 vehicles, which is above the regional average. A high proportion of residents, 46.6%, worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 rules.

Across all active transit routes, services run at an average frequency of 298 trips daily, representing roughly 31 weekly journeys for each individual transport stop.

Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and chronic illness rates, Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest exhibits excellent health profiles, with younger demographics showing a low incidence of common medical conditions. Private health insurance coverage is high, with approximately 82% of the population (2,928 people) covered, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most frequent health conditions reported by local residents are arthritis and mental health challenges, affecting 7.9 and 6.9% of the population, respectively. Additionally, 69.9% of residents reported having no long-term health conditions, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The population under the age of 65 exhibits favorable health statistics. Residents aged 65 and older account for 26.3% of the community (946 people), which is higher than the Greater Sydney average of 15.5%. While health outcomes for these older residents are above average, they rank lower nationally than the overall local population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest displays a higher level of cultural diversity than average, with 9.6% of residents speaking a language other than English at home and 23.4% born overseas. The most common religious affiliation is Christianity, representing 54.1% of the population. The most prominent statistical overrepresentation is observed in Judaism, which accounts for 0.6% of local residents, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

Regarding ancestral background, the top three heritages in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest are English at 31.0% (compared to the regional average of 19.0%), Australian at 24.8% (compared to the regional average of 17.8%), and Irish at 8.7%. Notable demographic differences exist for other ethnicities, with South Australian backgrounds representing 1.6% of the population (compared to 0.5% regionally), Hungarian at 0.5% (compared to 0.3%), and Russian at 0.7% (compared to 0.4%).

Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest is 47 years, which is higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and the national average of 38. The 75 - 84 age cohort is well represented at 10.9% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25 - 34 cohort is lower at 6.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket has increased from 12.6% to 15.7% and the 75 to 84 cohort rose from 8.1% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort decreased from 16.0% to 14.0% and the 35 to 44 age bracket fell from 9.8% to 7.9%. Demographic models project significant shifts in the age structure by 2041, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 34%, adding 134 residents to reach 528. Older residents aged 65 and over will account for 100% of the population growth, highlighting aging trends, while declines are projected for the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age groups.