Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls' population is around 17,647 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 472 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,175. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,622 in June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,057 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls' 2.7% growth since census positions it within 0.4 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 72.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median growth is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,241 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of 12.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls averaged approximately 82 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, there were 411 homes approved, with an additional 5 approvals so far in FY-26. On average, 0.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed have been recorded over these five years.

This suggests that new construction is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering buyers more options and potentially enabling population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $957,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Commercial approvals totalled $7.9 million in FY-26, reflecting limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls has 61.0% more building activity per person, providing buyers with ample choice. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

New building activity comprises 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating an expanding range of medium-density options to cater to various price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This shift reflects the decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. With approximately 831 people per approval, Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls is a mature, established area with an expected population growth of 2,216 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Forestway Shopping Centre Redevelopment, The Jardin - Stage 1 & 2, Frenchs Forest Housing and Productivity Contribution (HPC), and the 146-room hotel at Forest Hotel. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.3%, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is high at 66.9%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (1.3 times regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence with 2.6% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating ample local employment opportunities.

Over the year ending June 2025, labour force remained stable while employment declined by 0.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%, compared to national rates of 4.5% for unemployment and 0.26% for employment growth. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a five-year growth of 6.6% and ten-year growth of 13.7%. Applying these projections to Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.1%% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls had an exceptionally high national income level according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Its median income among taxpayers was $63,081 and the average income stood at $94,765, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $69,768 (median) and $104,810 (average) as of March 2025. Census data reveals household incomes rank exceptionally at the 98th percentile ($3,142 weekly). The earnings profile shows the $4000+ bracket dominates with 38.3% of residents (6,758 people), diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. A significant 52.2% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 97th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls' dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Sydney metro had 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls was 39.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.0% and rented at 13.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,400, higher than Sydney metro's $3,000. Median weekly rent was $828, compared to Sydney metro's $592. Nationally, Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.2% of all households, including 53.9% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 8.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.8%, with lone person households at 11.3% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.2 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable within its region. University qualification rates exceed Australian (39.8%) and NSW (32.2%) averages. Bachelor degrees are most common at 27.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%).

Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (17.2%). Educational participation is high at 32.9%, comprising primary education (11.4%), secondary education (10.1%), and tertiary education (5.6%). The area has a robust network of eight schools educating approximately 3,777 students, with five primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls demonstrates socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1107). School capacity exceeds typical residential needs at 21.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.2, indicating the area serves as an educational hub for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls has 113 active public transport stops. These are served by a total of 117 bus routes. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 4,811.

Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 163 meters. Daily service frequency averages 687 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls shows excellent health outcomes with low prevalence of common health conditions across all ages. The private health cover rate is high at approximately 69% of the total population (12,229 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 71.5%, and the national average of 55.3%. Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.0% and 6.1% of residents respectively.

74.7% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 74.7%. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) of 16.8% (2,969 people), with seniors enjoying strong health outcomes comparable to the general population.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Frenchs Forest-Oxford Falls, surveyed in June 2016, showed higher linguistic diversity with 16.8% of residents speaking a language other than English at home compared to the majority of local areas. Born overseas, 29.9% of its population was found, indicating significant cultural diversity. Christianity dominated religious affiliation, accounting for 53.9%.

Judaism's representation, however, was not significantly different from Greater Sydney's average (0.3%). Ancestral origins revealed English as the largest group at 28.9%, followed by Australian at 23.0% and Other at 9.6%. Notably, Frenchs Forest-Oxford Falls had higher proportions of French (1.1%), Welsh (0.9%) and South African (1.0%) ancestry compared to regional averages.

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls's median age exceeds the national pattern

Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls has a median age of 41 years, higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median of 38 years. Locally, the 45-54 age group is notably over-represented at 16.8%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 6.1%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.2% to 16.1% of the population. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 8.6% to 7.4%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 16.3% to 15.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Frenchs Forest - Oxford Falls' age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 168%, adding 727 residents to reach 1,162. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 64% of the population growth, while the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are projected to decline in population.