Manly Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Manly Vale's population is estimated at around 6,818 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 429 people (6.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,389 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,792 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 54 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,588 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly Vale's growth of 6.7% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (3.2%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projections indicate a decline in overall population over this period, with the area's population expected to reduce by 50 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 139 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Manly Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Manly Vale averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 177 homes. As of FY26, 17 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $794,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market and high-end developments. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly Vale has 86.0% more construction activity per person, providing ample buying options. New building activity comprises 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than implied by the existing pattern (34.0% at Census), reflecting strong demand for family homes despite densification trends.

With around 191 people per approval, Manly Vale reflects a developing area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Manly Vale may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Manly Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Four projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Stockland Balgowlah Shopping Centre Expansion & Residential, North Manly Recreation Site Redevelopment, Lawrence Street Shoptop Housing, and Balgowlah RSL Club Renovations (Stage 1 of Master Plan).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Manly Vale exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Manly Vale has a highly educated workforce with the technology sector prominently represented. The unemployment rate is 3.4%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 3919 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 0.8% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Manly Vale stands at 69.9%, surpassing Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents include professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. Notably, professional & technical services have employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 11.6% of Manly Vale's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 14.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.4% in Manly Vale, with a corresponding 1.7% decline in employment, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.1%, the labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment increased by only 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate stands at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly Vale's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not consider localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Manly Vale suburb has exceptionally high incomes nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $69,542 and average income stands at $128,312. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,013 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $75,703 (median) and $139,680 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Manly Vale rank highly nationally, between 85th and 88th percentiles for households, families, and personal incomes. The largest income bracket comprises 31.9% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,174 residents), similar to the surrounding region's 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 37.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Manly Vale features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Manly Vale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 33.7% houses and 66.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly Vale was at 24.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.2% and rented ones at 41.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,625, below Sydney metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent in Manly Vale was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $592. Nationally, Manly Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,625 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.9% of all households, including 32.0% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.0% and group households making up 4.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly Vale demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Manly Vale's educational attainment is notably high, with 45.3% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications, compared to the national average of 30.4% and NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 28.8% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.3%) and certificates (15.5%). Educational participation is high in Manly Vale, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly Vale has 51 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 73 different routes that together facilitate 5,814 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located just 112 meters from the nearest stop.

On an average day, there are 830 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 114 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly Vale's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Manly Vale's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger populations experiencing very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high here, at approximately 77% of the total population (5,278 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 71.5%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 7.0 and 6.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 75.3% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.7%. Manly Vale has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 14.4% (981 people), than Greater Sydney's 17.8%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Manly Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly Vale had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 22.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 37.3% born overseas. Christianity was the dominant religion in Manly Vale, comprising 43.0%. Judaism showed an overrepresentation, making up 0.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (27.5%), Australian (20.7%), and Other (11.5%). Notably, French (1.0%) was overrepresented compared to the regional figure of 1.1%, Hungarian (0.5%) exceeded its regional percentage of 0.3%, and Spanish (0.8%) also showed a higher representation than the regional average of 0.6%.

Manly Vale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Manly Vale was 38 years at the time of the 2021 Census, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly Vale had a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.2%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 8.9% to 11.2%, while the proportion of residents aged 35-44 decreased from 16.6% to 15.6%. By 2041, Manly Vale's age composition is expected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 62%, reaching 332 people from the 204 figure in 2021. This growth will be led by an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 98% of the projected population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for residents aged 0-4 and 15-24.