Manly Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Manly Vale's population is estimated at around 6,634. This reflects an increase of 245 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,389. The estimated resident population of 6,585 in Jun 2024, validated by AreaSearch following examination of ABS ERP data release, and an additional 54 new addresses since the Census date, indicate this increase. This results in a density ratio of 3,491 persons per square kilometer, placing Manly Vale in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth of 3.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA4 region (3.2%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections with 2022 as the base year for covered areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections with 2021 as the base year for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to this methodology, Manly Vale's population is expected to decline by 48 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 139 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Manly Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Manly Vale averaged around 31 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 155 homes approved during this period. As of April 2026, 11 dwelling approvals have been recorded in FY-26. Manly Vale has experienced population decline while maintaining adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $794,000, indicating developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been $87,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting Manly Vale's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly Vale shows 62.0% higher construction activity per person as of April 2026. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

This favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest at Census (34.0%), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. Manly Vale shows characteristics of a low density area with around 245 people per dwelling approval as of April 2026. With population projections indicating stability or decline, Manly Vale should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Manly Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Stockland Balgowlah Shopping Centre Expansion & Residential, North Manly Recreation Site Redevelopment, Warringah Mall Mixed Use Redevelopment, and Balgowlah RSL Club Renovations (Stage 1 of Master Plan).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Manly Vale exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Manly Vale has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, there are 3,917 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Manly Vale is high at 69.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. Professional & technical jobs are particularly concentrated, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Health care & social assistance employs 11.6% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.0%, while employment declined by 1.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly Vale's industry mix suggests local employment should grow by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2022, Manly Vale had a median income among taxpayers of $69,542 and an average income of $128,312. Nationally, these figures place Manly Vale in the top percentile. In Greater Sydney, the median and average incomes were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $78,311 and $144,492 based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since June 2022. Census 2021 income data shows Manly Vale's household, family, and personal incomes ranked between the 85th and 88th percentiles nationally. In Manly Vale, 31.9% of individuals had incomes within $1,500 - $2,999, similar to the broader metropolitan region at 30.9%. The suburb has a substantial proportion of high earners (37.6% above $3,000/week), indicating strong economic capacity. Housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. Manly Vale's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Manly Vale features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Manly Vale's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 33.7% houses and 66.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly Vale was at 24.3%, with the rest mortgaged (34.2%) or rented (41.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,625, below Sydney metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $592. Nationally, Manly Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9% of all households, consisting of 32.0% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.0% and group households comprising 4.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly Vale demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Manly Vale's educational attainment notably exceeds national and state averages. Among residents aged 15+, 45.3% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 28.8% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.3%) and certificates (15.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.1% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary (10.0%), secondary (7.0%), and tertiary education (5.1%). Manly Vale's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,817 students. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, indicated by an ICSEA score of 1128. Education provision is balanced with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. As an education hub, Manly Vale offers 27.4 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.2, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 38 active transport stops operating within Manly Vale. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 73 individual routes. Together, they facilitate 6,004 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 112 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 857 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 158 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly Vale's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Manly Vale's health outcomes show excellent results, especially for younger cohorts who have a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 77% (5,136 people) of Manly Vale's total population has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 71.5%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in Manly Vale, affecting 7.0% and 6.6% of residents respectively. A total of 75.3% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.7%. Manly Vale has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.3% (948 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 17.8%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Manly Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly Vale's cultural diversity surpasses most local areas, with 22.6% speaking languages other than English at home and 37.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 43.0%. Notably, Judaism is proportionally represented at 0.3%, matching Greater Sydney's figure.

In ancestry, English (27.5%), Australian (20.7%), and Other (11.5%) are the top groups. Some ethnicities show notable differences: French (1.0% vs regional 1.1%), Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.3%), and Spanish (0.8% vs 0.6%).

Manly Vale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Manly Vale is 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly Vale has a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group increased from 8.9% to 11.3%, while the 35-44 cohort decreased from 16.6% to 15.5%. By 2041, Manly Vale's population is expected to shift notably. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 67 people, reaching 332 from 199, with those aged 65 and above comprising 93% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 25-34 age cohorts.