Manly - Fairlight

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Fairlight reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly-Fairlight's population is around 24,425 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,987 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,438. The change is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 24,289 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,623 persons per square kilometer, placing Manly-Fairlight in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 8.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's 3.2%, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median is expected, with Manly-Fairlight expected to grow by 2,990 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 11.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Fairlight recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Fairlight granted around 43 residential approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, it approved 216 homes with an average of 2.8 new residents per year for each dwelling. The average construction cost was $984,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.

In FY-26, up to March, 33 approvals were granted and $59.2 million in commercial approvals were recorded. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight has around 75% of the construction activity per person but ranks at the 36th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprised 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium-high density housing. The area has approximately 634 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, it's estimated to grow by 2,854 residents.

If current construction levels persist, supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Manly - Fairlight has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Two Tides in Manly, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Manly - Fairlight exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Manly-Fairlight has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector and an unemployment rate of 3.2% as of September 2025. The area's employment rate is 1.0% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, with a workforce participation rate of 69.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

Residents are primarily employed in professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance sectors. The area has particularly high concentration in professional & technical jobs, at 2.0 times the regional average, but lower representation in health care & social assistance at 10.5% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1%, employment decreased by 1.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and unemployment rise by 0.2%.

State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, slightly lower than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections vary based on industry-specific growth rates. Applying these projections to Manly-Fairlight's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Manly - Fairlight SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $78,060 and an average level of $146,829. These figures place it in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's levels of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $87,903 (median) and $165,344 (average). From the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Manly - Fairlight rank highly nationally, between the 98th and 98th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 40.8% of the community (9,965 individuals) earn over $4,000 annually, contrasting with Greater Sydney where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 52.8% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly - Fairlight features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Manly-Fairlight, as per the latest Census, 15.2% were houses while 84.8% were other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Sydney metro had 36.7% houses and 63.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly-Fairlight was at 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented ones at 48.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, below Sydney metro's $3,800. Median weekly rent in Manly-Fairlight was $725, compared to Sydney metro's $720. Nationally, Manly-Fairlight's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Manly - Fairlight features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.2% of all households, consisting of 24.5% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 7.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Manly - Fairlight shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly - Fairlight has a notably higher educational attainment than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 59.7% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 39.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 20.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 9.8%.

Currently, 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.1% in primary education, 6.1% in tertiary education, and 5.5% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly-Fairlight has 111 active public transport stops. These are a mix of ferry and bus services. There are 65 different routes operating in total, providing 9,814 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Residents' accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with an average distance of 117 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 1,402 trips per day across all routes, which works out to approximately 88 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly - Fairlight's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly-Fairlight shows excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 86% of its total population of 20,907 had private health cover as of 2015-16, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions were asthma (6.1%) and mental health issues (5.7%). About 77.4% of residents reported no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's figure. As of June 2016, around 16.4% of residents were aged 65 and over (4,017 people). Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Manly - Fairlight was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly-Fairlight has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 15.0% of residents speaking a language other than English at home and 40.1% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Manly-Fairlight, comprising 43.0% of its population. Notably, Judaism is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 0.5% of the population.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.9%), Australian (18.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: French residents make up 1.6%, Spanish 1.0%, and Welsh 0.8%, compared to regional averages of 1.4%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively.

Manly - Fairlight's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Manly-Fairlight was close to Greater Sydney's average at 38 years as of a certain date. This figure is also equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly-Fairlight had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (20.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.0%). The concentration of residents aged 25-34 in Manly-Fairlight was well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and a certain later date, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 increased from 8.4% to 10.4%, while the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 decreased from 13.0% to 11.8%. By a certain year in the future, Manly-Fairlight is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The demographic shift will be led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to grow by 57%, reaching 2,240 people from 1,431. This aging population dynamic will result in those aged 65 and above comprising 67% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 35 to 44 age groups.