Manly - Fairlight

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Fairlight reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Manly - Fairlight's population is around 24,480 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,042 people (9.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,438 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,289 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 142 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,632 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly - Fairlight's 9.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.5%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 2,990 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 11.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Fairlight recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Fairlight has recorded around 43 residential properties granted approval annually, with 216 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 39 so far in FY-26. At an average of 2.8 new residents per year for each dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $984,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $59.2 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing homes, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium and high-density housing. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The location has approximately 634 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Looking ahead, Manly - Fairlight is expected to grow by 2,799 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Manly - Fairlight has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 22 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Two Tides, Manly, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Manly - Fairlight exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Manly - Fairlight features a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector a particular standout in terms of representation, and an unemployment rate of only 3.2%. As of December 2025, 15,414 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (75.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 64.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical, with employment levels at 2.0 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.5% versus the regional average of 14.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1% combined with employment decreasing by 0.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. This compares to Greater Sydney, where employment grew by 2.2%, labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Manly - Fairlight. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Manly - Fairlight's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Manly - Fairlight SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $78,987 with the average level standing at $138,812. This is among the top percentile nationally and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $85,985 (median) and $151,111 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Manly - Fairlight, between the 98th and 98th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the $4000+ earnings band captures 40.8% of the community (9,987 individuals), contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 52.8% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 97th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly - Fairlight features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Manly - Fairlight, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 15.2% houses and 84.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Manly - Fairlight was in line with that of Sydney metro, at 30.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (21.6%) or rented (48.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $3,467, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $725, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Manly - Fairlight's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly - Fairlight features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 63.2% of all households, comprising 24.5% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 7.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly - Fairlight shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Manly - Fairlight significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 59.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 39.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 20.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+ - advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (9.8%).

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.1% in tertiary education, and 5.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 161 active transport stops operating within Manly - Fairlight, comprising a mix of ferry and buses. These stops are serviced by 65 individual routes, collectively providing 14,049 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 116 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 63%, with 12% walking and 9% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 0.8 per dwelling, below the regional average. A high 64.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 2,007 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 87 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Manly - Fairlight's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Manly - Fairlight, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 82% of the total population (20,196 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.1 and 5.7% of residents, respectively, while 77.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 17.1% of residents aged 65 and over (4,190 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Manly - Fairlight was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly - Fairlight was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 15.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 40.1% born overseas. The main religion in Manly - Fairlight is Christianity, which makes up 43.0% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.5% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Manly - Fairlight are English, comprising 30.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 18.6% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: French is notably overrepresented at 1.6% of the population (vs 0.5% regionally), Spanish at 1.0% (vs 0.6%) and Welsh at 0.8% (vs 0.4%).

Manly - Fairlight's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 38-year median age in Manly - Fairlight is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 and equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (19.4%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (7.9%). This 25 - 34 concentration is well above the national 14.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.4% to 10.7% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, Manly - Fairlight is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 50% (746 people), reaching 2,240 from 1,493. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 67% of projected growth. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts.