Manly - Fairlight

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Fairlight reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly - Fairlight's population was around 24,579 as of May 2026. This reflected an increase of 2,141 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 22,438. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,569 in June 2025 and an additional 141 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 3,646 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly - Fairlight's growth of 9.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.7%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year were used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicated a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation, with Manly - Fairlight expected to grow by 2,558 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 10.4% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Fairlight recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Fairlight has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 216 homes were approved, with another 39 approved so far in FY26. On average, each dwelling has accommodated about 2.8 new residents per year over these five years, reflecting strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $984,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen around $59.2 million in commercial approvals, suggesting robust commercial development momentum. Comparatively, Manly - Fairlight shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person when measured against Greater Sydney. Nationally, it places among the 36th percentile of areas assessed, implying more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years.

Recent construction comprises about 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a trend toward denser development that provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The area has approximately 634 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Manly - Fairlight is expected to grow by around 2,548 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Manly - Fairlight has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Two Tides, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment, and White Water. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Manly - Fairlight exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Manly - Fairlight has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.2%. As of December 2025, there are 15,414 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation stands at 74.3%, above Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 64.5% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (2.0 times the regional average), finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance (10.5%, below the regional average of 14.1%). The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities.

Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1% and employment by 0.9%, leading to a 0.7 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly - Fairlight's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch aggregated postcode-level ATO data released for financial year 2023. Manly-Fairlight SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $78,987 and an average income of $138,812, placing it in the top percentile nationally compared to Greater Sydney's $60,817 and $83,03 respectively. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $87,138 (median) and $153,137 (average), accounting for a 10.32% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census ranked Manly-Fairlight's household, family, and personal incomes between the 98th and 98th percentiles nationally. Income analysis showed that 40.8% of individuals (10,028) earned over $4,000 annually, contrasting with Greater Sydney's leading bracket of $1,500-$2,999 at 30.9%. The district's affluence was evident with 52.8% earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting premium retail and services. Housing costs consumed 16.4% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. Manly-Fairlight's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 10th decile.

Manly - Fairlight features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Manly-Fairlight's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 15.2% houses and 84.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly-Fairlight was 30.1%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented ones at 48.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427, while the median weekly rent was $725 compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Manly-Fairlight's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly - Fairlight features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 63.2% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households making up 29.5% and group households comprising 7.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly - Fairlight shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Manly-Fairlight is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 59.7% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 39.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 20.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 9.8%.

A significant 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.1% in primary education, 6.1% in tertiary education, and 5.5% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly-Fairlight has 161 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These are served by 65 routes, collectively providing 14,049 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 116 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode at 63%, followed by walking (12%) and bus (9%). Vehicle ownership averages 0.8 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 64.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 2,007 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 87 weekly trips per individual stop. The provided map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Manly - Fairlight's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly-Fairlight shows excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with very low prevalence across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 82% of the total population (20,277 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%. The most common conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.1 and 5.7% respectively, with 77.4% declaring no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney.

The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (4,085 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Manly - Fairlight was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly-Fairlight's cultural diversity is notable, with 15.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 40.1% born overseas. Christianity dominates religious affiliation at 43.0%. Judaism, however, shows overrepresentation at 0.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

Ancestry reveals top groups as English (30.9%), Australian (18.6%), and Irish (10.8%). French, Spanish, and Welsh ethnicities are also notably higher than regional averages: French at 1.6% vs 0.5%, Spanish at 1.0% vs 0.6%, and Welsh at 0.8% vs 0.4%.

Manly - Fairlight's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Manly-Fairlight as of 2021 was 38 years, closely matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly-Fairlight had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (21.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.7%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds was significantly above the national average of 14.6%. Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Manly-Fairlight saw an increase in the proportion of residents aged 15-24 from 8.4% to 10.5%, and those aged 25-34 from 20.1% to 21.2%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 decreased from 13.0% to 11.3%, and those aged 5-14 dropped from 8.8% to 7.7%. By 2041, Manly-Fairlight is projected to experience significant changes in its age distribution. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 49% (an increase of 720 people), reaching a total of 2,188 from the previous figure of 1,467. This growth reflects an aging population trend, with those aged 65 and above comprising 68% of projected population growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 25-34 age group and the 5-14 age group.