Manly - Fairlight

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Fairlight reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly-Fairlight's population is 24,476 as of November 2025. This shows an increase of 2,038 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 22,438. The change is inferred from ABS figures: 24,289 in June 2024 and additional validated addresses since then. This results in a density ratio of 3,631 persons per square kilometer, placing Manly-Fairlight in the upper quartile nationally. Its growth rate of 9.1% since the 2021 Census exceeds its SA4 region's (3.4%) and SA3 area's growth rates. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.0% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 (base year 2021) are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Manly-Fairlight is projected to have a population increase of 2,990 persons, reflecting an overall gain of 11.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Fairlight recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Fairlight granted around 43 residential approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, it approved 216 homes, with another 33 in FY-26. Over these years, each dwelling attracted an average of 2.8 new residents yearly, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

Developers focus on the premium segment, with new homes averaging $984,000 in construction cost value. This year has seen $59.2 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight shows approximately 75% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally, suggesting limited housing choices for buyers. Recent construction comprises 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium-high density housing, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The area has around 634 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market.

By 2041, Manly - Fairlight is projected to grow by 2,803 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Manly - Fairlight has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Two Tides, Two Tides at Manly, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Manly - Fairlight exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Manly - Fairlight has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 3.2%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The area has 15,371 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 1.0% lower than the regional average and a workforce participation rate of 75.5%.

According to Census responses, 64.5% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance sectors. The area has notably high representation in professional & technical jobs, at 2.0 times the regional average, but lower representation in health care & social assistance, at 10.5% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1%, employment decreased by 1.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points.

In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and unemployment rise by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly - Fairlight's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Manly-Fairlight SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $78,987 and an average level of $138,812. Nationally, these figures place Manly-Fairlight in the top percentile. In Greater Sydney, the median was $60,817 and the average was $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $85,985 (median) and $151,111 (average). The 2021 Census showed household, family, and personal incomes in Manly-Fairlight ranking highly nationally, between the 98th and 98th percentiles. Income analysis revealed that 40.8% of individuals earned over $4,000 per week, contrasting with Greater Sydney where the $1,500-$2,999 bracket led at 30.9%. The district's affluence was evident with 52.8% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consumed 16.4% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 10th decile.

Manly - Fairlight features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Manly-Fairlight's dwelling structures in its latest Census showed 15.2% houses and 84.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly-Fairlight was 30.1%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented ones at 48.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Manly-Fairlight was $725, higher than Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Manly-Fairlight's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,467 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly - Fairlight features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 63.2% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households making up 29.5% and group households comprising 7.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly - Fairlight shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly - Fairlight residents aged 15+ have higher university qualification rates at 59.7%, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 39.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 20.3%, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 9.8%. A total of 24.5% are actively engaged in formal education, including 7.1% in primary, 6.1% in tertiary, and 5.5% in secondary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.1% in tertiary education, and 5.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly-Fairlight has 161 operational public transport stops offering a blend of ferry and bus services. These are covered by 65 separate routes, facilitating 14,049 weekly passenger journeys. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 116 meters to the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outwards using cars (63%), followed by walking (12%) and buses (9%). The area has a lower than average vehicle ownership rate at 0.8 per dwelling. As of the 2021 Census, 64.5% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Daily service frequency averages 2,007 trips across all routes, translating to approximately 87 weekly trips per individual stop. The map provided illustrates the 100 nearest stops relative to the location's centrepoint.

Manly - Fairlight's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly-Fairlight's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 82% of the total population (20,192 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.1 and 5.7% of residents respectively. Notably, 77.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. In terms of demographics, 16.4% of Manly-Fairlight's residents are aged 65 and over (4,026 people), which is higher than Greater Sydney's 15.3%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in the area are particularly strong, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Manly - Fairlight was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly-Fairlight's cultural diversity was significant, with 15.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 40.1% born overseas. Christianity dominated as the main religion, at 43.0%. Judaism's representation was notably higher in Manly-Fairlight compared to Greater Sydney, at 0.5% versus 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.9%), Australian (18.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: French (1.6% vs regional 0.5%), Spanish (1.0% vs 0.6%), and Welsh (0.8% vs 0.4%) were overrepresented in Manly-Fairlight.

Manly - Fairlight's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Manly-Fairlight was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years at 38 years during the time period mentioned. This figure is also equivalent to Australia's national median age of 38 years. In comparison with Greater Sydney, Manly-Fairlight had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 years (20.2%), but fewer residents aged 5-14 years (8.0%). The concentration of residents aged 25-34 years in Manly-Fairlight was well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 years has increased from 8.4% to 10.4%, while the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 years has decreased from 13.0% to 11.8%. By the year 2041, Manly-Fairlight is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition. The group aged 75-84 years is expected to grow by 56%, with an increase of 805 people, reaching a total of 2,240 from 1,434. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 67% of the projected growth in population. Conversely, population declines are projected for the age groups of 0-4 years and 5-14 years.