Manly - Fairlight

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Fairlight reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly - Fairlight's population is approximately 24,480 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 2,042 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 22,438. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,289 in June 2024 and an additional 142 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,632 persons per square kilometer, placing Manly - Fairlight in the upper quartile compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's population growth rate of 9.1% since the 2021 census exceeds both the SA4 region (3.5%) and the SA3 area, indicating it is a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Manly - Fairlight is expected to grow by approximately 2,990 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 11.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Fairlight recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Fairlight recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25216 homes were approved, with a further 33 approved so far in FY26. On average, each dwelling accommodated around 2.8 new residents per year over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $984,000, reflecting a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $59.2 million in commercial approvals, suggesting robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight shows around 75% of the construction activity per person, placing it among the 36th percentile nationally, which may limit buyer choices and support demand for existing homes. However, building activity has accelerated recently. Recent construction comprises 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium to high-density housing, offering accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers.

The area has approximately 634 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Looking ahead, Manly - Fairlight is projected to grow by 2,799 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Manly - Fairlight has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Two Tides, Two Tides, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Manly - Fairlight exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Manly - Fairlight has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.2%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. As of September 2025, 15,371 residents are employed, and the area's unemployment rate is 1.0% below Greater Sydney's.

Workforce participation in Manly - Fairlight is high at 75.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 64.5% of residents work from home. Employment concentrations are in professional & technical (2 times the regional average), finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance (10.5% vs regional average of 14.1%). Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1%, employment fell by 1.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points.

In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and unemployment rise by 0.2%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly - Fairlight's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Manly - Fairlight SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $78,987 with an average level standing at $138,812. This places it in the top percentile nationally, compared to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $85,985 (median) and $151,111 (average). From the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 98th percentile nationally for Manly - Fairlight. Income analysis reveals that the $4000+ earnings band captures 40.8% of the community (9,987 individuals), contrasting with Greater Sydney where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 52.8% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly - Fairlight features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Manly-Fairlight's dwelling structure in the latest Census showed 15.2% houses and 84.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly-Fairlight was 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented at 48.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, higher than Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent in the area was $725, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Manly-Fairlight's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly - Fairlight features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.2% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 7.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly - Fairlight shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Manly-Fairlight is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 years and above, 59.7% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 39.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 20.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 9.8%.

A significant portion of the population is actively engaged in education: 24.5% in total, including 7.1% in primary, 6.1% in tertiary, and 5.5% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly-Fairlight has 161 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 65 individual routes, facilitating 14,049 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 116 meters to the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 63%, followed by walking (12%) and bus use (9%). Vehicle ownership averages 0.8 per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 64.5% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 2,007 trips daily, equating to approximately 87 weekly trips per individual stop. The provided map illustrates the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Manly - Fairlight's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly-Fairlight shows excellent health outcomes according to AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 82% of Manly-Fairlight's total population of 20,196 people have private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.1%) and mental health issues (5.7%). A higher proportion of residents, 77.4%, report being completely clear of medical ailments than in Greater Sydney (74.6%). Manly-Fairlight has a larger senior population, with 17.1% aged 65 and over (4,190 people), compared to 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Manly - Fairlight was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly-Fairlight showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 15.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 40.1% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 43.0%. Judaism's representation was notably higher than Greater Sydney's average, at 0.5% compared to 0.8%.

In ancestry, English (30.9%) was significantly more prevalent than the regional average of 19.0%, followed by Australian (18.6%) and Irish (10.8%). French (1.6%), Spanish (1.0%), and Welsh (0.8%) were also overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively.

Manly - Fairlight's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Manly - Fairlight is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (19.4%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.9%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is above the national average of 14.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has grown from 8.4% to 10.7%, while the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 has declined from 13.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, Manly - Fairlight's age composition is expected to shift notably. The number of residents aged 75-84 is projected to grow by 50%, reaching 2,240 from 1,493. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 67% of the population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for those aged 5-14 and 0-4 years.