Manly - Fairlight

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Fairlight reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Manly - Fairlight's population is around 24,425 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,987 people (8.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,438 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,289 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 132 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,623 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly - Fairlight's 8.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.2%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 2,990 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting recording a gain of 11.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Fairlight recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Fairlight has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 216 homes have been approved, with another 31 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling has accommodated about 2.8 new residents per year over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes is approximately $1,006,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26 alone, there have been around $59.2 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust commercial development momentum in the area. Comparatively, Manly - Fairlight shows about 75% of the construction activity per person when measured against Greater Sydney. Nationally, it ranks among the 36th percentile of areas assessed for construction activity, indicating more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years.

Recent construction trends show 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium to high-density housing, suggesting a shift towards denser development that caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The population density is approximately 634 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established market. Looking ahead, Manly - Fairlight is projected to grow by around 2,854 residents by the year 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth in the area.

Manly - Fairlight has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Twenty-two infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Two Tides in Manly, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Manly - Fairlight demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Manly - Fairlight has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.8%, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The area had 15,180 residents employed at this time, with an unemployment rate 1.4% below Greater Sydney's and workforce participation at 69.6%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (2.0 times the regional average), finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance (10.5% vs regional average of 14.1%). The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels remained stable while employment decreased by 0.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points.

This contrasts with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.6% and labour force expansion of 2.9%. State-level data for NSW as of Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly - Fairlight's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on 28 June 2022 for financial year 2022, Manly - Fairlight SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $78,060 and an average level of $146,829. This places it in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's levels of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $87,903 (median) and $165,344 (average). The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Manly - Fairlight ranking highly, between the 98th and 98th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 40.8% of individuals earn over $4,000 annually, contrasting with Greater Sydney where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. In Manly - Fairlight, 52.8% earn over $3,000 weekly, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly - Fairlight features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Manly-Fairlight as of the latest Census, 15.2% were houses while 84.8% comprised semi-detached dwellings, apartments, and others. Sydney metro had 36.7% houses and 63.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly-Fairlight stood at 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented ones at 48.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, lower than Sydney metro's $3,800. Median weekly rent in Manly-Fairlight was $725 compared to Sydney metro's $720. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents stood at $375.

Manly - Fairlight features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.2% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 7.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Manly - Fairlight shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly - Fairlight has notably higher educational attainment than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 59.7% hold university qualifications, surpassing Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 39.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 20.3% of qualifications in this age group, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 9.8%.

A significant 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.1% in primary, 6.1% in tertiary, and 5.5% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly-Fairlight has 111 active public transport stops. These include both ferry and bus services. A total of 65 individual routes operate in the area, collectively serving 9,814 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 117 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,402 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 88 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly - Fairlight's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly-Fairlight exhibits excellent health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The private health cover rate is notably high at approximately 86% of the total population (20,907 people), significantly higher than the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.1% and 5.7% of residents respectively. A substantial majority, 77.4%, report being completely free from medical ailments, closely mirroring Greater Sydney's figure of 77.4%. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) comprising 16.4% of the total residents (4,017 people). Health outcomes among seniors are commendable, largely aligning with the overall population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Manly - Fairlight was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly-Fairlight has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 15.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 40.1% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Manly-Fairlight, making up 43.0%. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented at 0.5%, compared to 0.4% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.9%), Australian (18.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: French is overrepresented at 1.6% versus 1.4% regionally, Spanish at 1.0% versus 0.8%, and Welsh at 0.8% versus 0.9%.

Manly - Fairlight's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Manly - Fairlight was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years at the time of the census. It was also equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight had a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (20.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.0%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds was well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the latest data, the percentage of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 8.4% to 10.4%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 13.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, Manly - Fairlight is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition. The number of residents aged 75-84 is expected to grow by 57%, reaching 2,240 from 1,431. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 67% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for residents aged 5-14 and 35-44 years old.