Manly - Fairlight

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Fairlight reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly - Fairlight's population is around 24,425 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,987 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,438 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,289 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 132 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,623 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly - Fairlight's growth rate of 8.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.2%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Manly - Fairlight is expected to grow by 2,990 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 11.7% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Fairlight recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Fairlight has granted approximately 43 residential properties approval annually. In the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 216 homes were approved, with a further 31 approved so far in FY26. On average, over these five years, each dwelling accommodated about 2.8 new residents per year, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes was $984,000, reflecting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen around $59.2 million in commercial approvals, suggesting robust commercial development momentum. Comparatively, Manly - Fairlight shows roughly 75% of Greater Sydney's construction activity per person but ranks among the 36th percentile nationally when considering areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. Recent construction comprises approximately 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium to high-density housing, catering to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers seeking accessible entry options.

The area has around 634 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Looking ahead, Manly - Fairlight is projected to grow by approximately 2,854 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply might lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Manly - Fairlight has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that could impact the area. Major projects include White Water, Two Tides, Manly Wharf Redevelopment, and Two Tides in Manly. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Manly - Fairlight demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Manly - Fairlight has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, as of June 2025.

The area's residents have an employment rate of 15,180, which is 1.4% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 69.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (2.0 times the regional average), finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance (10.5% vs regional average of 14.1%). Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels remained stable at 0.0%, while employment decreased by 0.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points.

This contrasts with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.6% and labour force expansion of 2.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly - Fairlight's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.6%% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Manly - Fairlight had a median income among taxpayers of $78,060 and an average level of $146,829. These figures place Manly - Fairlight in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's levels of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for median and average incomes would be approximately $87,903 and $165,344 as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Manly - Fairlight between the 98th and 98th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 40.8% of the community (9,965 individuals) earn over $4,000 annually, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 52.8% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly - Fairlight features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Manly-Fairlight, as per the latest Census data, 15.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 84.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Sydney's metropolitan area where 36.7% of dwellings are houses and 63.3% are other types. Home ownership in Manly-Fairlight stood at 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented ones at 48.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, lower than Sydney's average of $3,800. Weekly rent in Manly-Fairlight was $725, slightly higher than Sydney's average of $720. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly - Fairlight features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.2% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 7.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Manly - Fairlight shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Manly - Fairlight is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 59.7% possess university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% state-wide. Bachelor degrees are most common at 39.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 20.3%, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 9.8%.

Active pursuit of education is significant, with 24.5% engaged in formal learning, including 7.1% in primary, 6.1% in tertiary, and 5.5% in secondary education. Manly - Fairlight operates a robust network of 8 schools educating approximately 2,219 students, demonstrating socio-educational advantages (ICSEA: 1130). The educational mix includes 4 primary, 3 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. School places per 100 residents is 9.1, below the regional average of 12.2, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, please refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly-Fairlight has 111 active public transport stops. These include both ferry and bus services. There are 65 individual routes operating in total.

Each week, these routes facilitate 9,814 passenger trips collectively. Residents have excellent accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 117 meters to the nearest stop. Daily service frequency averages 1,402 trips across all routes, translating to approximately 88 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly - Fairlight's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly-Fairlight has demonstrated excellent health outcomes, with a low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The area has a high rate of private health cover, at approximately 86% of its total population of 20,907 people (as of 2016).

This is significantly higher than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Manly-Fairlight are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.1% and 5.7% of residents respectively. A high proportion of residents, 77.4%, reported being completely free from medical ailments, which is comparable to the figure for Greater Sydney (also 77.4%). The area has a senior population of 16.4%, comprising 4,017 people aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors in Manly-Fairlight are strong and largely consistent with those of the general population.

Manly - Fairlight was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly-Fairlight's population shows higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 15.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 40.1% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 43.0%. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented at 0.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.9%), Australian (18.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: French (1.6% vs regional 1.4%), Spanish (1.0% vs 0.8%), and Russian (0.6% vs 0.5%) are overrepresented in Manly-Fairlight.

Manly - Fairlight's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Manly - Fairlight was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years at the time of the census. It was also similar to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly - Fairlight had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (20.2%), but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.0%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds was significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 8.4% to 10.4%, while the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 13.0% to 11.8%. By the year 2041, Manly - Fairlight is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 57%, reaching a total of 2,240 people from the previous count of 1,431. This growth will be led by an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 67% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 age group and the 35-44 age group.