Freshwater (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Freshwater reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Freshwater (NSW) is around 9,696 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 510 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,186 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,626 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 5,637 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Freshwater's growth rate of 5.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.3%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Freshwater (NSW) is expected to grow by 186 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 2.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Freshwater according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Freshwater recorded approximately 17 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 89 homes from FY-20 to FY-25. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built has resulted in an average of 2.9 new residents per year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $1,054,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In this financial year, $47.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Freshwater records around 65% of building activity per person. Nationally, it places among the 15th percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings.

This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 62.0% standalone homes and 38.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix providing options across different price points. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (42.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. The location has approximately 1065 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Population forecasts estimate Freshwater will gain 202 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Freshwater has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the local area significantly. These include the Freshwater Beach Masterplan, The Alba project, Harbord Hotel Planning Proposal (37-room hotel wing), and Northern Beaches Secondary College Freshwater Campus Expansion.

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AreaSearch analysis places Freshwater well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Freshwater has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 5966 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Freshwater is higher at 76.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 55.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries for employment among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and construction. Freshwater has a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.8% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. While local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Freshwater's labour force decreased by 0.3%, with employment declining by 1.2%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Freshwater's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Freshwater suburb's median income among taxpayers was $74,509 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $133,268 during the same period. These figures were significantly higher than Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003 respectively. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $81,110 (median) and $145,076 (average), based on an 8.86% growth in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023. According to 2021 Census figures, Freshwater's household incomes ranked at the 94th percentile nationally, family incomes at the 95th percentile, and personal incomes at the 96th percentile. Income distribution showed that 32.0% of residents earned over $4,000 per week, compared to regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket was dominant at 30.9%. With 46.4% earning over $3,000 per week, Freshwater's affluence supported premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consumed 17.1% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 93rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 10th decile.

Freshwater features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Freshwater, as per the latest Census evaluation, 41.8% of dwellings were houses while 58.2% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This differs from Sydney metropolitan area's distribution of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Freshwater stood at 28.4%, similar to Sydney metro's level, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 34.2% and rented dwellings making up 37.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Freshwater was $3,055, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Freshwater was $600, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Freshwater's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,055 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 per week.

Freshwater features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.8% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.2%, with lone person households at 24.9% and group households comprising 5.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Freshwater demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Freshwater has a notably high educational attainment, with 48.6% of its residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, surpassing the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 34.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (15.9%).

Educational participation is notably high in Freshwater, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 69 active transport stops operating within Freshwater. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 27 individual routes providing 1,670 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 104 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commute outward using cars at 81%, with 6% by bus and 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high 55.3% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 238 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per stop.

Freshwater's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Freshwater's health outcomes show notable results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 79% of the total population (7,694 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.0 and 5.4% of residents respectively. 79.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the 74.6% in Greater Sydney. As of 14.7% (1,425 people), Freshwater has a significant senior population aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Freshwater was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Freshwater's population was found to have high cultural diversity, with 12.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.4% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 45.0%. Judaism, however, was more prevalent in Freshwater at 0.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, English (30.7%) and Australian (23.3%) were significantly overrepresented compared to regional averages of 19.0% and 17.8% respectively. Irish ancestry was also notable at 9.8%. Other ethnic groups with significant representation included French (1.1%), Welsh (0.9%), and Spanish (0.8%).

Freshwater's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Freshwater's median age is 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age group constitutes 13.5% of Freshwater's population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 5-14 cohort makes up 10.3%. From 2021 onwards, the 15-24 age group has increased from 9.7% to 11.7%, whereas the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 12.2% to 10.3% and the 45-54 group has fallen from 15.0% to 13.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Freshwater's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 57%, reaching 733 people from 465. This growth will be driven by an aging population, with those aged 65 and above contributing 93% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 45-54 and 25-34 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.