Manly Vale - Allambie Heights
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights' population, as of August 2025, is approximately 17,986. This figure represents a 436-person increase (2.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,550. This change was inferred from an estimated resident population of 17,936 in June 2024 and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 1,923 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 2.5% growth since the census is within 0.6 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 94.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the area expected to grow by 4 persons by 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in a reduction of 0.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 233 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.2 new residents per year have arrived with each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and facilitating population growth.

The average construction value of these properties is $794,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment. In FY-26, there have been $16.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has 11.0% less new development per person and ranks among the 35th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively limited buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New development consists predominantly of detached houses (78.0%) with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (22.0%), maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

The location has approximately 517 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. With stable or declining population forecasts, Manly Vale - Allambie Heights may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Northern Beaches Hospital Infrastructure, Frenchs Forest Park Upgrades, North Manly Recreation Site Redevelopment, and 40-Unit Development Wakehurst Parkway. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment positions Manly Vale - Allambie Heights ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% as of June 2025.

The area had a labour force participation rate of 67.7%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance sectors. Professional & technical employment is particularly high at 1.3 times the regional average. However, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence with only 2.9% employment compared to 5.3% regionally.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force decreased by 0.0%, while employment declined by 1.1%. This resulted in a rise of 1.0 percentage points in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6% during the same period. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to national rates of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly Vale - Allambie Heights' employment mix suggests potential local growth of approximately 7.1%% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. Manly Vale - Allambie Heights' median income among taxpayers was $66,780, with an average of $123,215. This places it in the top percentile nationally. Comparing to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856 shows significant disparity. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimates for March 2025 would be approximately $73,859 (median) and $136,276 (average). Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes rank highly in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights, between the 86th and 94th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $4000+ bracket dominates with 34.1% of residents (6,133 people), contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. The area demonstrates considerable affluence with 46.2% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 93rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights had 65.2% houses and 34.8% other dwellings in its latest Census evaluation, compared to Sydney metro's 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 30.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.6% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,250, above Sydney metro's $3,000. Median weekly rent was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $592. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially higher at $375.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, including 43.6% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of 2021, 42.9% of residents aged 15+ hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 29.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 16.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education. As of 2021, there are 8 schools operating within Manly Vale - Allambie Heights, educating approximately 2,791 students. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1120. The educational mix includes 5 primary, 2 secondary, and 1 K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has 109 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of bus routes totalling 82. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes is 5,166.

Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 131 metres. Daily service frequency averages 738 trips across all routes, equating to about 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows notable results across Manly Vale - Allambie Heights, with younger age groups having a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 79% of the total population (14,280 people) has private health cover, compared to 71.5% in Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.4 and 6.1% of residents respectively.

A total of 75.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.7% in Greater Sydney. The area has 15.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,811 people), lower than the 17.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require particular attention despite the overall strong results.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly Vale-Allambie Heights, as per the ABS Census 2016 data, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 15.9% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 32.1% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Manly Vale-Allambie Heights, with 49.3% of people identifying as such. However, Judaism showed an overrepresentation at 0.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.3%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (9.1%). Notably, French (1.0% vs regional 1.1%), Welsh (0.9% vs regional 0.7%), and South African (1.1% vs regional 0.9%) ethnic groups were also overrepresented in Manly Vale-Allambie Heights.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and Australia's figure of 38 years. The area has an over-representation of the 45-54 age cohort at 16.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.8% to 13.0% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 16.2% to 15.0%, and the 35-44 age group has dropped from 14.7% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights' age profile. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to grow by 376 people (28%), from 1,332 to 1,709. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 90% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 45-54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.