Manly Vale - Allambie Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights' population is approximately 18,045 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 495 people (2.8%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,550. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,936 in June 2024 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,929 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 2.8% since the census is within 0.4 percentage points of the SA4 region's (3.2%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 94.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to grow by 4 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a reduction of 0.6% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 233 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year arriving per new home in this area over the past five financial years is around 0.2. This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with or even exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and facilitating population growth.

The average value of new properties constructed is approximately $506,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $16.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has 11.0% less new development per person and ranks among the 34th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This lower level of development reflects market maturity and possible development constraints.

The area's new development consists of approximately 78.0% detached houses and 22.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining its traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 517 people per dwelling approval, the location reflects an established area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Manly Vale - Allambie Heights may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 25 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Frenchs Forest Park Upgrades, Northern Beaches Hospital Infrastructure, Stockland Balgowlah Shopping Centre Expansion & Residential, and North Manly Recreation Site Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Manly Vale - Allambie Heights maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has an educated workforce with a notable technology sector presence and a low unemployment rate of 3.6% as of September 2025. The area's unemployment rate is 0.6% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, with a workforce participation rate of 67.7%.

Employment among residents is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance sectors. Professional & technical employment is particularly high at 1.3 times the regional average, while transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by a decrease in labour force and employment over a 12-month period ending September 2025, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment and labour force growth during this period.

State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Manly Vale - Allambie Heights's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, the median income among taxpayers in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights SA2 is $66,780. The average income is $123,215. This places it in the top percentile nationally. Compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856, Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has higher incomes. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $75,201 (median) and $138,752 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights rank highly nationally, between the 86th and 94th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 34.1% of residents earn over $4,000 per week (6,153 people), contrasting with the surrounding region where 30.9% earn between $1,500 and $2,999. This affluence supports premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 93rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Manly Vale - Allambie Heights, as per the latest Census, 65.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 34.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Sydney metropolitan area had 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights stood at 30.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.6% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,250, higher than Sydney's average of $3,000. Weekly rent in the area was $550, compared to Sydney's $592. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, including 43.6% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households making up 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of the latest data, 42.9% of residents aged 15+ hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 29.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (16.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has 109 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along 82 different routes, offering a total of 5,166 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 131 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 738 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights shows excellent health outcomes, with younger individuals having a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 79% of the total population (14,327 people), compared to 71.5% across Greater Sydney and 55.3% nationally. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.4% and 6.1% of residents respectively, while 75.7% report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the 74.7% across Greater Sydney.

The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.6%, with 2,820 people, compared to 17.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require particular attention despite the overall strong results.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly Vale-Allambie Heights had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 15.9% of its residents speaking languages other than English at home and 32.1% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Manly Vale-Allambie Heights, accounting for 49.3% of its population. Notably, Judaism had a slightly higher representation in Manly Vale-Allambie Heights compared to Greater Sydney, with 0.4% of its population identifying as Jewish.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.3%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (9.1%). There were also notable differences in the representation of French (1.0%, compared to 1.1% regionally), Welsh (0.9%, compared to 0.7%), and South African (1.1%, compared to 0.9%) residents.

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Manly Vale - Allambie Heights has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and Australia's figure of 38 years. The area has an over-representation of the 45-54 age cohort at 16.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 9.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.8% to 13.0% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 16.2% to 15.0%, and the 35-44 age group has dropped from 14.7% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Manly Vale - Allambie Heights' age profile. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to expand by 371 people (28%), from 1,337 to 1,709. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 90% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 45-54 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.