Manly (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Manly's population is estimated at around 17,939 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,643 people (10.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,296 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 17,933 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 132 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,220 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly's 10.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (3.7%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected in the suburb of Manly. The area is expected to expand by 1,886 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 10.5% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Manly when compared nationally

Manly recorded approximately 39 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25. This totals an estimated 199 homes. As of FY26, 35 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 2.6 people moved to the area per new home constructed during this period.

The average construction value for these new homes was $1,006,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY26, Manly has seen $59.2 million in commercial development approvals. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly maintains similar construction rates per person but has recently experienced increased activity. Nationally, however, construction rates are higher, suggesting possible development constraints in Manly. New developments consist of 17.0% detached dwellings and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, favouring higher-density living.

With around 357 people per approval, Manly indicates a mature market. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Manly's population will grow by 1,880 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Manly has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that may impact this particular region. Notable projects include Two Tides, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment, and White Water. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Manly shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Manly features a highly educated workforce with the technology sector being particularly prominent. Its unemployment rate is 3.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 11,400 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Manly is high at 74.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 64.7% of residents work from home, which may have been influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries among Manly residents are professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. Notably, professional & technical services employ twice as many people locally compared to the regional average, while health care & social assistance employs 10.0%, lower than Greater Sydney's 14.1%.

While there are local employment opportunities, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Manly's labour force remained stable while employment decreased by 0.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.2% during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that overall employment is expected to increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, applying these projections to Manly's specific industry mix indicates local employment growth of 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Manly suburb has exceptionally high national incomes. The median assessed income is $79,404 and the average income stands at $149,357. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $87,598 (median) and $164,771 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Manly all rank highly nationally, between the 98th and 98th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the $4000+ bracket dominates with 40.6% of residents (7,283 people), differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 52.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 97th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Manly's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 11.3% houses and 88.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly stood at 28.6%, aligning with the Sydney metro figure. Dwellings were either mortgaged (18.6%) or rented (52.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427 and significantly above the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Manly was recorded at $725, compared to Sydney metro's $470 and substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Manly features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.0% of all households, including 21.9% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 5.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households making up 7.6%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly has notably higher educational attainment than national averages. Among residents aged 15 years and above, 60.9% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and New South Wales' 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (40.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.4%, with advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 9.5%.

A significant 23.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 6.9% in primary, 6.3% in tertiary, and 5.0% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly has 103 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These are served by 65 individual routes, collectively providing 14,049 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 126 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 60%, with 14% walking and 9% using buses. Vehicle ownership averages 0.7 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 64.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 2,007 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 136 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Manly's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly's health outcomes show excellent results according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 86% of Manly's total population (15,364 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.0% and 5.9% of residents respectively. A higher proportion of Manly's residents, 77.5%, report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Manly has a larger senior population, with 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,995 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Manly was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly's cultural diversity is high, with 16.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 42.5% born overseas. Christianity dominates religious affiliations in Manly, comprising 42.6%. Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 0.5% versus 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.4%, higher than the regional average of 19.0%), Australian (17.8%), and Irish (10.8%). Notably, French (1.8% vs 0.5%), Spanish (1.1% vs 0.6%), and Russian (0.6% vs 0.4%) groups are overrepresented in Manly compared to regional averages.

Manly's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Manly is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, at 38 years, similar to Australia's median age. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (23.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.0%). This 25-34 concentration is well above the national average of 14.6%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 8.1% to 10.2%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 21.8% to 23.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.6% to 11.0%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 8.2% to 7.0%. By 2041, Manly is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 49%, reaching 1,603 people from 1,076. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 69% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 age groups.