Manly (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Manly (NSW) had an estimated population of around 17,818 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,522 people from the 2021 Census figure of 16,296, marking a growth rate of 9.3%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 17,713 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 123 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 3,198 persons per square kilometer, placing Manly in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (3.2%) and SA3 area, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a growth just below the median of national statistical areas, with an expected increase of 2,154 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 11% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly has seen around 37 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 186 homes were approved, with a further 24 approved in FY-26. On average, each dwelling accommodates about 2.3 new residents annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost of these dwellings is $1,006,000, indicating a focus on premium developments. This year has seen $54.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust local business activity. Manly's new home approvals per capita are comparable to Greater Sydney but below the national average, suggesting maturity and potential planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 19% detached houses and 81% attached dwellings, favoring higher-density living for affordability and suitability for various buyer types. The area has about 409 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature.

By 2041, Manly is projected to grow by 1,967 residents. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Manly has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Two Tides in Manly, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Manly shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Manly has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025, Manly's unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Manly is 69.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. Professional & technical services have particularly high representation, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented in Manly, comprising only 10.0% of its workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 14.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to local population. Over a 12-month period ending Jun-25, Manly's labour force decreased by 0.1%, while employment decreased by 1.0%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6% and labour force expand by 2.9%, with a smaller increase in unemployment (0.3 percentage points). Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Manly's median income among taxpayers was $79,404 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $149,357 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $89,417 and $168,191 respectively. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Manly rank highly nationally, between the 98th and 98th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 40.6% of residents earning $4,000 or more weekly (7,234 residents), differing from regional patterns where $1,500 to $2,999 dominates with 30.9%. A substantial proportion of high earners, 52.6%, are above the $3,000/week threshold, indicating strong economic capacity in the area. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. Manly's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Manly's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 11.3% houses and 88.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 36.7% houses and 63.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly was at 28.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.6% and rented ones at 52.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Manly was $3,467, lower than Sydney metro's $3,800. Median weekly rent in Manly was $725, compared to Sydney metro's $720. Nationally, Manly's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $3,467 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and median weekly rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.0% of all households, including 21.9% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 5.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 7.6%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Manly shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 60.9% possess university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 40.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 9.5%.

In total, 23.9% of Manly's population is actively pursuing formal education, including 6.9% in primary, 6.3% in tertiary, and 5.0% in secondary education. There are eight schools operating within Manly, educating approximately 2,219 students. The area shows significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1130. The educational mix includes four primary, three secondary, and one K-12 school. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly has 75 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 65 different routes, carrying out 9,814 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 126 meters.

There are approximately 1,402 trips daily across all routes, translating to about 130 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly's health outcomes data shows excellent results with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 86% of the total population (15,261 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.0% and 5.9% of residents respectively. A majority, 77.5%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 77.4%. Manly has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,939 people), with seniors' health outcomes aligning closely with the general population's profile.

Manly was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly's cultural diversity exceeds most local markets, with 16.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 42.5% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Manly, accounting for 42.6%. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented at 0.5%, compared to 0.4% in Greater Sydney.

In ancestry, the top three groups are English (30.4%), Australian (17.8%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnic groups show significant variations: French representation is higher at 1.8% vs regional 1.4%, Spanish at 1.1% vs 0.8%, and Russian at 0.6% vs 0.5%.

Manly's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Manly is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (21.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. According to the 2021 Census, Manly's population aged 15-24 has grown from 8.1% to 10.1%, while the 45-54 age group has declined from 12.6% to 11.4%. By 2041, Manly is expected to experience significant changes in its age composition. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 54%, reaching 1,622 people from the current 1,051. This aging population trend is evident with those aged 65 and above comprising 68% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups.