Manly (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of the suburb of Manly (NSW) as of Feb 2026 is around 17,901. This reflects an increase of 1,605 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,296. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 17,750 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,213 persons per square kilometer, placing Manly in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly's growth rate of 9.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA4 region (3.5%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected for Manly, with an anticipated expansion of 2,162 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 10.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Manly recorded around 39 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 198 homes. In FY-26 so far, 29 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.2 people moved to Manly per new home constructed.

The average construction value for new homes was $1,006,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $59.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney and nationally, Manly maintains similar construction rates per person but has seen recent intensification of activity. New developments consist of 17.0% detached dwellings and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living and affordability for various buyers. With around 359 people per approval, Manly indicates a mature market.

By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Manly's population will grow by 1,873 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Manly has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 18 such projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable among these are Two Tides (Manly), Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment. The following list details those projects expected to be most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Manly shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Manly's workforce is highly educated with significant representation in the technology sector. The unemployment rate stands at 3.3%, as per AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, Manly has 11,291 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is fairly standard at 74.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 64.7% of Manly residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries include professional & technical services, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. Manly specializes in professional & technical jobs with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance employs only 10.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, Manly's labour force decreased by 0.2%, employment declined by 1.2%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Manly has exceptionally high incomes nationally. The median income is $79,404 and the average income stands at $149,357. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $86,439 (median) and $162,590 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Manly, between the 98th and 98th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $4000+ bracket dominates with 40.6% of residents (7,267 people), unlike the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 52.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 97th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Manly's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 11.3% houses and 88.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly was at 28.6%, similar to Sydney metro's level, with the rest being mortgaged (18.6%) or rented (52.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Manly was $3,467, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Manly was recorded at $725, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Manly's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Manly features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.0% of all households, including 21.9% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 5.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 7.6%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 60.9% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 40.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 9.5%.

A significant portion of Manly's population is actively pursuing education, with 23.9% engaged in formal learning. This includes 6.9% in primary education, 6.3% in tertiary education, and 5.0% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Manly indicates that there are 103 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of ferry and bus services, with a total of 65 individual routes providing 14,049 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 126 meters from the nearest stop. As Manly is primarily residential, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The dominant mode of transport among residents is the car, used by 60% of them, while 14% walk and 9% use public buses. Vehicle ownership in the area averages 0.7 per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high percentage of residents, specifically 64.7%, work from home, which may be partly attributed to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 2,007 trips per day, equating to approximately 136 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanying the analysis shows the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centerpoint.

Manly's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly's health outcomes data shows excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 86% of Manly's total population (15,332 people) has private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.0 and 5.9% of residents respectively. A total of 77.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Manly has 17.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,061 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Manly was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly's population shows high cultural diversity, with 16.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 42.5% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Manly, accounting for 42.6% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 0.5% versus 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.4%), Australian (17.8%), and Irish (10.8%). There are significant differences in the representation of French (1.8% vs regional 0.5%), Spanish (1.1% vs 0.6%), and Russian (0.6% vs 0.4%) ethnicities.

Manly's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Manly is close to Greater Sydney's average at 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (21.1%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of Manly's population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 8.1% to 10.4%, while the percentage of those aged 45 to 54 has declined from 12.6% to 11.3%. By 2041, Manly is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 48%, reaching 1,617 people from the current 1,091. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 69% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 25-34 age group and the 0-4 age cohort.