Manly (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Manly (NSW)'s population is estimated at around 17,901 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,605 people (9.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,296 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 17,750, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 133 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,213 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly's 9.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.5%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to expand by 2,195 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Manly recorded around 39 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 199 homes. So far in FY-26, 35 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.2 people moved to the area per new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, reflecting robust demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $1,006,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In FY-26, $59.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Relative to Greater Sydney, Manly maintains similar construction rates per person, consistent with the broader area's market balance. However, this level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 355 people per dwelling approval, Manly shows a developed market.

Population forecasts indicate Manly will gain 2,044 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Manly has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable ones include Two Tides in Manly, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Manly shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Manly has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector particularly well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.4%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 11,325 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Manly stands at 74.9%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census responses indicate that 64.7% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries are professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. Manly has a strong specialization in professional & technical jobs, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance employs only 10.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work, suggesting local employment opportunities are not fully utilized. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, Manly's labour force decreased by 0.2%, and employment fell by 0.9%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.2% and labour force expand by 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Manly is $79,404 and average income stands at $149,357. Greater Sydney's figures are median $60,817 and average $83,003. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 are approximately median $86,439 and average $162,590. Census data ranks Manly's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 98th and 98th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show 40.6% of residents (7,267 people) earn over $4,000 annually, differing from broader area where $1,500 - $2,999 bracket predominates at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 52.6% of households earning over $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income but strong earnings place disposable income at the 97th percentile. Manly's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Manly's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 11.3% houses and 88.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly was 28.6%, with the rest mortgaged at 18.6% or rented at 52.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Manly was $3,467, higher than Sydney metro's $2,427 and Australia's average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Manly was $725, above Sydney metro's $470 and the national figure of $375.

Manly features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.0% of all households, including 21.9% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 5.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 7.6%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Manly shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly's educational attainment significantly exceeds national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 60.9% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 40.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 9.5%.

A total of 23.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 6.9% in primary education, 6.3% in tertiary education, and 5.0% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly has 103 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 65 unique routes, facilitating 14,049 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 126 meters to the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 60%, followed by walking at 14% and bus use at 9%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.7, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high percentage of residents, 64.7%, work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 2,007 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 136 weekly trips per individual stop. The provided map illustrates the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the specified centrepoint.

Manly's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 86% of Manly's total population (15,332 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.0 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 77.5% of Manly's residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Manly has 17.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,061 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Manly was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly's cultural diversity was notable, with 16.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 42.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, representing 42.6%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, English was highest at 30.4%, Australian at 17.8%, and Irish at 10.8%. Some ethnic groups were notably divergent: French at 1.8% (vs regional 0.5%), Spanish at 1.1% (vs 0.6%), and Russian at 0.6% (vs 0.4%).

Manly's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Manly is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, matching the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (21.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.4%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 8.1% to 10.4%, while the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 12.6% to 11.4%. By 2041, Manly's age composition is expected to change notably. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 50%, reaching 1,635 people from the current 1,091. This growth will contribute significantly to the overall population increase, with those aged 65 and above comprising 68% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are anticipated for the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups.