Manly (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Manly (NSW) statistical area's population is estimated at around 17,897 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,601 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,296 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 17,750 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 123 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,213 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly's growth rate of 9.8% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA4 region (3.4%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected in Manly (NSW) (SA2), with an expansion of 2,155 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 10.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Manly recorded approximately 39 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 198 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, 29 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 2.2 people moved to Manly per new home constructed each year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $1,006,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $59.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly maintains similar construction rates per person, keeping market balance consistent with the broader area. However, recent construction activity has intensified. Nationally, Manly's construction levels are lower, reflecting a mature market and possible development constraints.

New development consists of 17.0% detached dwellings and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. As of FY-25, Manly had around 359 people per approval, indicating a mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Manly is expected to grow by approximately 1,889 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Manly has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Two Tides in Manly, Manly Hospital Health And Well-Being Precinct, and Manly Cove West (Former Sea Life) Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Manly shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Manly features an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. The unemployment rate is 3.3%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 11,281 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Manly is high at 69.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents are professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. Manly has a particular specialization in professional & technical services, employing 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 10.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. While employment opportunities exist locally, many residents commute elsewhere for work. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, Manly's labour force decreased by 0.2%, with employment declining by 1.2%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and a labour force expansion of 2.4%. State-level data for NSW as of 25-Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment will expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manly's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 14.9% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest data for postcode level ATO income in financial year 2023 shows Manly suburb has exceptionally high national median income of $79,404 and average income of $149,357. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Manly would be approximately $86,439 (median) and $162,590 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals incomes in Manly rank highly nationally, with household, family and personal incomes all between the 98th and 98th percentiles. Income brackets show that 40.6% of residents (7,266 people) fall into the $4000+ bracket, differing from broader area where $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 52.6% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 97th percentile nationally. Manly's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Manly features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Manly's dwelling structure in the latest Census showed 11.3% houses and 88.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Sydney metro had 36.7% houses and 63.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly was 28.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.6% and rented ones at 52.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, below Sydney metro's $3,800. Median weekly rent in Manly was $725, compared to Sydney metro's $720. Nationally, Manly's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Manly features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.0% of all households, including 21.9% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 5.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households at 7.6%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Manly shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly's educational attainment exceeds national and state averages. Among residents aged 15+, 60.9% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 40.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 9.5%.

A significant 23.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 6.9% in primary education, 6.3% in tertiary education, and 5.0% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manly has 103 active public transport stops. These are a mix of ferry and bus services. There are 65 different routes operating from these stops.

Each week, these routes provide a total of 14,049 passenger trips. The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 126 meters. On average, there are 2,007 trips per day across all routes. This equates to approximately 136 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manly's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Manly reports excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 86% of the total population (15,328 people), compared to 83.6% across Greater Sydney and 55.7% nationally. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.0 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 77.5% report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 77.4% rate in Greater Sydney.

Manly has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,953 people), with seniors' health outcomes broadly aligning with those of the general population.

Manly was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly's population shows significant cultural diversity, with 16.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 42.5% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Manly, comprising 42.6% of its population. Notably, Judaism is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 0.5% versus 0.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.4%), Australian (17.8%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnic groups have notable divergences from regional percentages: French at 1.8% in Manly compared to 1.4%, Spanish at 1.1% versus 0.8%, and Russian at 0.6% compared to 0.5%.

Manly's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Manly is 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Manly has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (21.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. According to the 2021 Census, Manly's population aged 15-24 has grown from 8.1% to 10.1%, while the 45-54 age group has declined from 12.6% to 11.4%. By 2041, Manly is projected to experience notable changes in its age composition. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 54% (567 people), reaching a total of 1,623 from the previous number of 1,055. This growth reflects an aging population trend, with those aged 65 and above comprising 68% of projected population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts.