Cromer (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cromer reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Cromer (NSW) is around 8,300, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 8,030 people. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,279 as of June 2024, based on ABS ERP data, and includes an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. Cromer's population density stands at 1,338 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 3.4% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA4 region's average of 3.2%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of Cromer's overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch projects Cromer's future population trends using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections (released in 2024 with a base year of 2022) and NSW State Government SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data (released in 2022 with a base year of 2021).

By 2041, Cromer's population is projected to decline by 10 persons overall, but specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, which is projected to expand by 382 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Cromer according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Cromer has seen approximately 12 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 62 homes from FY-20 to FY-25. As of FY-26, one approval has been recorded. On average, each home built between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodates approximately 3.3 new residents per year, indicating significant demand exceeding supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost of new homes in Cromer is around $238,000, below regional norms, suggesting more affordable housing options for purchasers.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $91,000, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cromer exhibits roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks in the 23rd percentile nationally, implying limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This activity is also below the national average, suggesting an established market with potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% attached dwellings, offering a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets.

The area has approximately 717 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Given the expected stable or declining population, Cromer may experience reduced housing pressure, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Cromer has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects likely influencing the region. Notable ones are Wakehurst Parkway improvements from Frenchs Forest to Narrabeen, Cromer Village Green's proposed mixed-use precinct, capacity enhancements along Northern Beaches Corridor (A8) from Seaforth to Mona Vale, and Northern Beaches bus network improvements. The following list details projects most relevant:.

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While Cromer retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.5%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Cromer has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 4,418 residents are employed, with Cromer's unemployment rate at 0.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 64.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services. Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average, while transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.3%.

Labour force levels in Cromer remained stable over the year to June 2025, but employment declined by 1.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cromer's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Cromer had a median income among taxpayers of $60,777. The average income stood at $91,619, which is among the highest in Australia compared to levels of $56,994 and $80,856 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $68,441 (median) and $103,172 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 90th percentile ($2,483 weekly). In income distribution, 28.9% of the population (2,398 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, unlike trends in the region where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. The locality demonstrates considerable affluence with 42.5% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 17.3% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 88th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Cromer is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cromer's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cromer stood at 39.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.9% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,142, higher than Sydney metro's $3,000. Median weekly rent in Cromer was $650, compared to Sydney metro's $592. Nationally, Cromer's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cromer features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.8% of all households, consisting of 46.6% couples with children, 22.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.2%, with lone person households at 19.4% and group households making up 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Cromer shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 30.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 41.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 21.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (22.5%). Educational participation is high at 31.3%, including 10.7% in primary, 10.0% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

The area has two schools serving 1,641 students: Cromer Public School and Northern Beaches Secondary College Cromer Campus. It demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1069). School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 19.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.2, indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cromer has 60 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 41 different routes that together facilitate 2,318 weekly passenger trips. The town's residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 140 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 331 daily trips across all routes, which breaks down to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cromer's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cromer with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover was found to be exceptionally high at approximately 63% of the total population (5,233 people), compared to 71.5% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.7 and 6.3% of residents respectively, while 74.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.7% across Greater Sydney.

The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,651 people), which is higher than the 17.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cromer was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cromer's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 13.5% speaking a language other than English at home and 25.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cromer, accounting for 55.9% of its population. While Judaism comprises only 0.3%, this figure is similar to Greater Sydney's 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.4%), Australian (25.2%), and Other (7.7%). Notably, Serbian (1.0%) and Hungarian (0.5%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Cromer compared to regional averages of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Additionally, Welsh ethnicity is slightly higher at 0.8%.

Cromer hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Cromer's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cromer has an over-representation of the 45-54 age cohort at 15.4% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group increased from 12.4% to 14.5%, and the 85+ cohort grew from 2.7% to 4.3%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort declined from 9.1% to 7.6%, and the 5-14 age group decreased from 14.9% to 13.7%. Demographic modeling projects significant changes in Cromer's age profile by 2041. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 100%, adding 356 residents to reach 713. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 99% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts.