St Ives Chase

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Ives Chase reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, St Ives Chase's estimated population is around 3,334. This reflects an increase of 51 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,283. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,328 residents following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and six additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 958 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, St Ives Chase has shown resilient growth patterns with a 1.1% compound annual growth rate, outpacing its SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, St Ives Chase is expected to grow by 219 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a 10.4% increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within St Ives Chase when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, St Ives Chase has recorded around 5 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, approximately 28 homes were approved, with an additional 1 home approved so far in FY26.

On average, for every home built over these five years, there have been about 4.3 new residents. This demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically increases competition among buyers and puts upward pressure on prices. Developers focus on the premium market, with new properties constructed at an average value of $975,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Ives Chase records markedly lower building activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though building activity has accelerated in recent years.

This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 86.0% detached dwellings and 14.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 275 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts indicate St Ives Chase will gain 346 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

St Ives Chase has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely affecting this region: Ku-ring-gai Transport Oriented Development, Newcastle-Sydney Rail Line Upgrades, Wollongong-Sydney Rail Line Upgrades, Sydney Metro City & Southwest Extension, and NSW Government Low and Mid-Rise Housing Reforms (Northern Beaches) are key projects. The following details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates St Ives Chase maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

St Ives Chase has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%.

Over the past year, employment has remained relatively stable. As of September 2025, 1,653 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.5%, which is 0.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in St Ives Chase is similar to Greater Sydney's at 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance.

The area has a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 8.6%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.0%, while employment decreased by 0.2%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Ives Chase's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023. St Ives Chase had a median taxpayer income of $59,356 and an average of $104,740. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, compared to Greater Sydney's $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $64,615 and $114,020, based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. From the 2021 Census, household incomes ranked at the 98th percentile ($3,306 weekly). The $4,000+ bracket dominated with 41.7% of residents (1,390 people), differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominated at 30.9%. Higher earners comprised 55.3%, indicating strong purchasing power. High housing costs consumed 16.6% of income, yet disposable income remained at the 97th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 10th decile.

St Ives Chase is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In St Ives Chase, as per the latest Census evaluation, 96.0% of dwellings were houses, with 4.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 68.8% houses and 31.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Ives Chase stood at 43.6%, surpassing the Sydney metro average. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 48.6%, and rented dwellings made up 7.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $4,223, significantly higher than the Sydney metro average of $3,500 and the national average of $1,863. Weekly rent in St Ives Chase was recorded at $950, substantially above the Sydney metro figure of $630 and the national average of $375.

St Ives Chase features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 90.7% of all households, including 57.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 9.3%, with lone person households at 8.8% and group households at 1.0%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

St Ives Chase demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in St Ives Chase is notably higher than national and state averages. Specifically, 54.9% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in New South Wales (NSW). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 18.1% and graduate diplomas at 3.4%. Vocational pathways account for 19.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas making up 9.8% and certificates 9.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.5% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Ives Chase has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 12 different routes that together facilitate 989 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 172 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 141 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 49 weekly trips per individual stop.

St Ives Chase's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in St Ives Chase, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 68% of the total population (2,273 people) has private health cover, compared to 78.8% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.1% and 5.0% of residents respectively.

76.5% of residents declare they are completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.0% in Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 19.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (656 people). Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's health profile.

St Ives Chase is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Ives Chase has a high level of cultural diversity, with 33.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in St Ives Chase, making up 42.2% of people. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented, comprising 7.1% of the population compared to 2.5% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are English (23.0%), Chinese (18.2%), and Australian (16.7%). Notably, South African ancestry is overrepresented at 4.0%, compared to 1.6% regionally, while Russian and Hungarian ancestries are also slightly higher than the regional average at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

St Ives Chase's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in St Ives Chase is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and also older than Australia's national median age of 38 years. The 5-14 age group makes up 19.6% of the population in St Ives Chase, which is higher than both Greater Sydney and the national average of 12.2%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group represents only 3.4% of the population, lower than both Greater Sydney and the national average. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.4% to 12.9%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 4.5% to 3.4%. The 0 to 4 age group has also dropped, from 4.4% to 3.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for St Ives Chase. Notably, the 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 48%, adding 128 people and reaching a total of 399. The combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 75% of the total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.